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Belgian Cable Observatory

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Belgian Cable Observatory Belgian Cable Observatory PRODUCED B Y IDATE O N BEHALF O F O R A N G E BELGIUM UNDER T H E ACADEMIC CONTROL OF PROF A. DE STREEL,DIRECTOR O F C R I D S , NAMUR UNIVERSITY Agenda – What are the impacts of cable opening on Belgian broadband markets so far? Cable opening scores better than copper opening in the past Price trends and competitive environment have not changed much at this stage Investments were upheld Regulatory changes have been decided recently Conclusion: Cable opening is off to an encouraging start, but it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions NGA adoption keeps increasing at a steady pace in Belgium Market shares on the Belgian Residential NGA fixed broadband Net Residential NGA lines additions per player market In number of lines In % of subscriptions Source: BIPT Source: BIPT Cable opening shows better results than copper unbundling COPPER LOCAL LOOP UNBUNDLING HAS FAILED IN BELGIUM, AS ON THE CONTRARY, AFTER ONLY TWO YEARS OF AVAILABILITY, DEMONSTRATED BY STEADILY DECREASING WHOLESALE PRODUCTS SALES BITSTREAM CABLE ADOPTION IS RAPIDLY INCREASING Sales of fully and partially unbundled lines by Proximus, 2010-2017 • Since the opening of the cable market, Orange Belgium as its main Number of lines beneficiary has gained more than 155,000 Cable subscribers in Belgium • This represents an average quarterly increase of +39% in subscribers since Q1 2016 • As a comparison, two years after the beginning of copper local loop unbundling in Belgium, the total of fully and partially unbundled copper lines activated was under 6,000 Source: BIPT Source: Customer base for Cable lines by Orange Belgium Take-up of telco wholesale products Number of lines, in thousands Number of lines 200 150 100 50 0 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q 3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Source: BIPT Source: Source: Orange Belgium Agenda – What are the impacts of cable opening on Belgian broadband markets so far? Cable opening scores better than copper opening in the past Price trends and competitive environment have not changed much at this stage Investments were upheld Regulatory changes have been decided recently Conclusion: Cable opening is off to an encouraging start, but it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions Prices for fixed services have overall increased over the past seven years CURRENT PRICES AS OF AUG. 2018 (EUR/MONTH) PRICE EVOLUTION 27,99 27,80 26,95 27,50 40,00 23,00 35,00 30,00 STANDALONE 25,00 BROADBAND - 20,00 S2 2011 S2 2012 S2 2013 S2 2014 S2 2015 S2 2016 S2 2017 S1 2018 SFR Telenet VOO Proximus Scarlet 60 59,00 53,70 55 49,00* 49,95 2-PLAY 50 TV 45 - - 40 + BROADBAND S2 2011 S2 2012 S2 2013 S2 2014 S2 2015 S2 2016 S2 2017 S1 2018 Telenet Voo Proximus *: not available standalone 80 70,52 67,00 3-PLAY 55,99 58,95 70 60 39,00 TV 50 + BROADBAND 40 + FIXED - 30 S2 2011 S2 2012 S2 2013 S2 2014 S2 2015 S2 2016 S2 2017 S1 2018 TELEPHONY SFR Telenet VOO Proximus Scarlet Selection criteria • For fixed services offers, the cheapest offer available with a minimum descending speed of 30 Mbps was selected Source for all graphs: BIPT, Operator data • For mobile services offers, the cheapest offer available with a minimum of 1 GB of monthly data was selected Following a European trend, 4-Play is gaining momentum in Belgium • As of end 2017, almost 65% of Belgian households subscribed to a bundled offer • After several years of stability, 3-Play share is decreasing whereas 4-Play reaches almost 30% of bundled subscriptions • Over the past two years, all operators have introduced or rebranded quadruple-play packages, which are heavily highlighted in their marketing strategy Take-up of multi-play bundles, EoY 65% of Multi-play bundle takeup by type of bundle, 2017 Number of subscriptions Belgian % of bundled subscriptions households 3 500 000 3 189 776 3 000 000 2 500 000 18% 2 000 000 29% 2-Play 3-Play 1 500 000 4-Play 1 000 000 53% 500 000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: BIPT Source: BIPT Prices remain generally higher in Belgium, especially on the fastest- growing segment of 4-Play 3-PLAY BROADBAND/TV/FIXED TELEPHONY 4-PLAY Monthly price for a 3-Play offer including Broadband, TV and Fixed Monthly price for a 4-Play offer, by player Telephony, by player EUR/month, as of 08/08/2018 EUR/month, as of 08/08/2018 0 € 20 € 40 € 60 € 80 € 100 € 0 € 10 € 20 € 30 € 40 € 50 € 60 € 70 € 80 € Orange BE Telenet Telenet VOO VOO Proximus Proximus BT BT Virgin Virgin Vodafone DE Deutsche Telekom PYUR (Tele Columbus) Vodafone DE Orange FR PYUR (Tele Columbus) SFR FR Orange FR Free SFR FR Average without BE: Movistar/Telefonica Free 46 EUR/month Vodafone ES KPN KPN Ziggo Ziggo TIM TIM Fastweb Average without BE: Fastweb 61 EUR/month Vodafone IT Vodafone IT Selection criteria • For fixed services offers, the cheapest offer available with a minimum descending speed of 30 Mbps was selected • For mobile services offers, the cheapest offer available with a minimum of 1 GB of monthly data was selected • If available, selected contract duration was 12 months Source for all graphs: Operator data Cable opening has not affected market structures so far Market shares on the fixed broadband market, Brutélé Cable Zone, 2010-2017 In % Market shares on the fixed broadband market, Telenet Cable Zone, 2010-2017 In % Source: BIPT Market shares on the fixed broadband market, Nethys Cable Zone, 2010-2017 In % Source: BIPT Source: BIPT Agenda – What are the impacts of cable opening on Belgian broadband markets so far? Cable opening scores better than copper opening in the past Price trends and competitive environment have not changed much at this stage Investments were upheld Regulatory changes have been decided recently Conclusion: Cable opening is off to an encouraging start, but it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions General trend shows increased investment efforts by Belgian telecom operators Fixed CapEx and ratio to fixed revenue, Belgium, 2013-2016 % 1 200 35% 31% 30% 1 000 26% 27% 27% 25% 800 • Fixed CapEx increased in 2016 both in absolute and relative 20% terms, when compared to Fixed Revenue 600 1 092 15% • Total CapEx/Total Revenue ratio was of 23% in 2017 923 915 939 400 10% 200 5% - 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 Fixed CapEx CapEx/Revenue Source: BIPT Investment ratios are on the higher side in Belgium compared to neighboring countries Total CapEx ratio to Total Telecommunications Revenue, 2017 % 27% 23% 21% • In 2017, Belgium had a higher CapEx/Revenue ratio for the 15% Telecommunications sector than Germany and the Netherlands Belgium France Netherlands Germany Source: BIPT, ARCEP, ACM, Bnetza CapEx perimeters may differ. Agenda – What are the impacts of cable opening on Belgian broadband markets so far? Cable opening scores better than copper opening in the past Price trends and competitive environment have not changed much at this stage Investments were upheld Regulatory changes have been decided recently Conclusion: Cable opening is off to an encouraging start, but it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions Most European countries use Cost-Oriented methods for wholesale price control Method of Price Control used by European regulators for the Local Loop Unbundling Service on Copper Network and Fiber Local Loop Unbundling Wholesale Markets Local Loop Unbundling Service on Copper Price Control Method Fiber Local Loop Unbundling Network Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Spain, Finland, France, Germany, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Croatia, Hungary, Croatia, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Latvia, Cost-Orientation Lithuania, Latvia, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, Slovenia, Slovakia, UK Retail-Minus / Czech Republic, Sweden Benchmarking / / Other/Combination / France, Luxembourg, Slovenia No Price Control / Bulgaria, Norway Source: BEREC 2017 Through recent changes in regulation, Belgium should align with the rest of the EU in terms of wholesale pricing methods REGULATORY CHANGES • On June 29, 2018, the CRC adopted new decisions for the regulation of wholesale local and central access at the fixed location and wholesale TV broadcasting in Belgium • Those decisions will be followed by a new wholesale tariff grid in the coming months • VOO and Telenet should introduce wholesale standalone broadband and wholesale double-play (broadband and fixed telephony) services • Proximus is requested to open its FTTP network to wholesale access • The measures should differentiate between regions according to competition intensity and broadband infrastructure availability in order to stimulate investment Agenda – What are the impacts of cable opening on Belgian broadband markets so far? Cable opening scores better than copper opening in the past Price trends and competitive environment have not changed much at this stage Investments were upheld Regulatory changes have been decided recently Conclusion: Cable opening is off to an encouraging start, but it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions Conclusion: Cable opening is off to an encouraging start, but it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions • After only two years, cable opening is taking off, with a quarterly growth of +39% in subscribers since 2016 FIRST RESULTS • The success of cable opening was possible despite the fact that only one operator was an actual customer of the service IMPACT ON • It is still too early to note a clear impact of cable opening on retail pricing and competitive environment trends MARKET • Belgian operators sustain their investment efforts DYNAMICS • Belgium is in the process of implementing a cost-plus pricing method for cable wholesale products, in line with REGULATORY most EU countries’ methodologies CHANGES • Retail standalone broadband is now possible.
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