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European Fibre Networks V Building the Gigabit Society – Incumbent Deployments Accelerating

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European Fibre Networks V Building the Gigabit Society – Incumbent Deployments Accelerating 4 September 2020 Equity Research Europe European Fibre Networks V Building the gigabit society – incumbent deployments accelerating Integrated Telecommunication Services | Theme Summary: In our fifth annual review of fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) in Europe, we look at Research Analysts the current landscape for both public and private fibre network deployment. FTTH deployments are accelerating across Europe (and in our view will accelerate further) and we Jakob Bluestone, CFA expect fibre assets to re-rate over time. We introduce our FTTH market dashboard for 44 20 7883 0834 ranking future FTTH investment opportunities. [email protected] Fibre deployment accelerating: In Western Europe, nearly 40% of premises were passed Ben Lyons by FTTH at end-2019 with the pace of deployment accelerating +15% to 12.5m incremental 44 20 7888 8742 [email protected] premises passed. We expect a further +10% acceleration in homes passed in 2020 and FTTH coverage to reach 74% by 2024. In particular, incumbent deployments are picking up; Paul Sidney e.g. in the UK, France and the Netherlands, incumbents are accelerating build. 44 20 7888 6015 [email protected] Demand growing but still lagging: FTTH uptake is lagging deployment, with 15% of premises taking FTTH-broadband, but we expect this to rise to 33% by 2024. We believe Evgeny Kudinov in a post-COVID-19 world, demand for fixed connectivity generally – and FTTH in particular 44 20 7888 1791 – will be higher. We also expect FTTH to take share from cable, which has tended to lose [email protected] market share when faced with FTTH-based infrastructure competition. Specialist Sales: Jan-Willem Brand Stock conclusions: We believe incumbent operators will generate the best incremental 44 20 888 6027 [email protected] returns where there is little existing fibre in the ground, limited competition and a high upsale opportunity. The UK (BT – Outperform) and Germany (DT – Neutral) are the markets with the most attractive returns outlook for incremental fibre, in our view. We also see KPN (Outperform) as well positioned on balance, as it benefits from little challenger overbuild/levered cable. Conversely, we see the outlook for new FTTH investment as weaker in Sweden (Telia – Underperform) and Spain (Telefonica – Neutral), as both markets have already largely monetised the upside from FTTH. Figure 1: Homes passed and connected to FTTH by market (% of premises) 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Belgium DK France GermanyIreland Italy N'lands NorwayPortugal Spain Sw eden Sw itz UK EU-13 Homes passed & connected with FTTH Homes passed but not connected with FTTH Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates for 2024 DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 4 September 2020 Table of Contents Key Charts 3 Investment summary 4 1. Demand for fixed-line infra to accelerate 10 2. Fibre deployment accelerated in 2019 11 3. Incumbent fibre build accelerating 12 4. Fibre economics stack up if demand high 14 5. FTTH winning against cable 15 Ranking markets for new fibre investments 17 Deployment of FTTH 18 Demand for FTTH broadband 29 Changes to our forecasts 34 Belgium 40 Denmark 44 France 48 Germany 52 Ireland 56 Italy 60 Netherlands 65 Norway 69 Portugal 73 Spain 77 Sweden 81 Switzerland 85 United Kingdom 89 European Fibre Networks V 2 4 September 2020 Key charts Figure 2: We expect fixed line to benefit most post-COVID-19 Figure 3: Forecast for gross over net coverage to decline 160.0 2.5x 133.9 140.0 130.6 129.6 2.0x 120.0 100.0 1.5x 80.0 68.2 69.0 62.4 64.4 65.2 64.9 1.0x 60.0 40.0 0.5x 20.0 0.0x 0.0 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2019 2020 2021 EBITDA Capex OpFCF EU 13 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates for 2020-21 (units = € bn) Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 4: We introduce our FTTH market dashboard for ranking Figure 5: Incumbent FTTH coverage to reach 59% of premises future FTTH investment opportunities by 2024 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2020E 2024E Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research Source: Credit Suisse estimates Figure 6: FTTH remains attractive given FTTC take-up rates of Figure 7: Markets with significant FTTH and HFC coverage are >50% and ARPU uplift seeing cable market share deteriorate 55.0% 28.5% 28.0% 50.0% 27.5% 45.0% 27.0% 40.0% 26.5% 35.0% 26.0% 30.0% 25.5% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 18/19 18/19 18/19 18/19 19/20 19/20 19/20 19/20 20/21 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 Openreach FTTx take-up rate Simple Average of Cable Market Share Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research European Fibre Networks V 3 4 September 2020 Investment summary Sector conclusions Fifth annual review of European FTTH landscape This report is our fifth annual review of the state and outlook of European FTTH build, where we look at what both public and private operators are doing. For previous editions please follow these links 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and for the full database in Excel please contact your Credit Suisse contact. Figure 8: This is our 5th review of the landscape of FTTH in Europe Source: Credit Suisse research Mapping the industry In the report, we map out what fibre is being built by the traditional telco incumbents as well as the new sources of fibre competition from existing resellers or new fibre challengers. The latter in particular are often privately held or small/fragmented and therefore in our view their collective importance is less well appreciated. European Fibre Networks V 4 4 September 2020 European Fibre Networks V Figure 9: Mapping the European telco industry and its disruptors Classic Telecom Traditional challengers/Start-ups Telecom Industry Disruptors Incumbents Mobile operators Cable (major) Fixed Resellers Fibre challengers (new) Internet of Things (IoT) 5G disruptors Hardware BT Group 1&1 Liberty (multiple) 1&1 Adamo Misc muni fibre Driverless Cars Local networks Equiment DT (Germany) 3 Europe (multiple) NOS Bahnhof Altibox M-Net BMW Wireless Infrastructure Group Huawei Elisa (Fin) Altice (multiple) SFR Bouygues Altitude NetCologne Rolls Royce B4RN Nokia KPN (NL) Bouygues TDC Bredband2 Axione Norlys Tesla Application providers (Video) Ericsson Orange (France) DT (multiple) Tele Kolumbus Digi B4RN OF Google (YouTube) Proximus (Bel) Iliad Fra/Iit Tele2 Euskaltel Cityfibre SFN Energy Amazon Device manufacturers Swisscom (Swit) KPN Telenet Fastweb Covage Salt Bosch Netflix Samsung TDC (DK) Mas Telenor Iliad Delta Fiber Siro Hulu Apple Telefonica (Spain) Orange (multiple) Virgin Media Mas Deutsche Glasfaser SSE Healthcare Disney Huawei Telenor (Norway) Salt Vodafone (multiple) Orange dstelecom Stadtwerke Sunshine Apple Telia (Swe) Sunrise VodafoneZiggo SFR E-Fiber Swiss Fibre Orbita Facebook Satellite TI (Italy) Swisscom VOO (Brutele) Sky (Comcast) Eurofiber TDF Fibre Application providers (other) Kymeta TDC VOO (Nethys) Sunrise EWETel Voneus Transport/Logistics Uber Telefonica (multiple) TalkTalk FibreNation Waao DHL deliveroo eSIM Telenor TEFD Fore Freedom wilhelm.tel Konux Apple Telia Tiscali Gelsen-net zzoomm Smart Retail Samsung TI Vodafone (multiple) Gigaclear MVNOs Manufatcuring JD.com Gemalto Vodafone (multiple) Wind GlobalConnect 1&1 Fujitsu Wind Hyperoptic Chili Mobil Inexio MasMovil IP-Only Post office KCOM Tesco Mobile L2Fibre Rotterdam VMED Mobile Towers Satellite operators Satellite disruptors Distributors New Disruptive Technologies Operators Operators Disruptors Viasat Traditional Maritime Cyber Security Artificial Intelligence Holographics Cellnex Deutsche Funkturm JCDecaux Eutelsat Iridium Speedcast OmniSci Nvidia SeeReal INWIT Hivory Telcos e.g. DT, VOD Intelsat Planet KVH Vertica Twilio Volkswagen. Kaleida EI Towers Wireless Infrastructure Group Private Equity Inmarsat Smallsats Manufacturers Machine Learning Deepmind AMT Altice Portugal Towers Massive MiMO etc extending range Telesat SpaceX Airbus Infopulse Augmented Reality TDF Echostar OneWeb Boeing Altoros Niantic Arqiva Challengers Launchers Google Lockheed Martin Netguru Lucyd CTIL Digital Economy Amazon (BlueOrigin) Loon Thales iTechArt Zappar MBNL StrattoOpencell SpaceX Aero Telxius Private Equity ILS (Proton) GlobalEagle ULA GoGo Note that some smaller companies have been excluded Source: Credit Suisse research 5 4 September 2020 Our key takeaways this year Demand for fixed-line infrastructure looks set to accelerate. We believe that a longer- term effect of COVID-19 is higher demand for fixed services and lower cord-cutting. This was already evident in Q2 20 (when line loss went from -3% y/y to -2% y/y) and we expect to see further improvement. We estimated in Beyond the Pandemic that full stabilisation of fixed lines (i.e. no further access lines lost) would imply ~15% potential upside to sector FCF (and share prices) over three years. Fibre deployment accelerated in 2019 - with further acceleration likely to come in 2020. In Western Europe there are now 80m premises passed by FTTH (40% of total premises). In 2019, 12.5m premises were passed by FTTH (6.1% of premises; net of overbuild), which was 15% above the 10.9m (5.4%) premises passed in 2018.
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