Assessment for the Identification of Candidate PECI and PMI Projects Final Report

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Assessment for the Identification of Candidate PECI and PMI Projects Final Report Assessment for the identification of candidate PECI and PMI projects Final Report REKK, DNV GL June 2020 Infrastructure www.energy-community.org This report was financed by the Energy Community. Assessment for the identification of candidate Projects of Energy Community Interest (PECI) and candidate Projects for Mutual Interest (PMI) Final report 15.06.2020. Authors REKK: Borbála Takácsné Tóth, Peter Kotek, András Mezősi, Enikő Kácsor, Adrienn Selei, Diallo Alfa, Bettina Dézsi DNV GL: Daniel Grote. Martin Paletar www.energy-community.org This report was financed by the Energy Community. CONTENTS 1 Executive summary ......................................................................................................................... 7 2 Introduction and objectives ........................................................................................................... 13 2.1 Steps of the assessment ....................................................................................................... 14 2.2 Project meetings and deliverables ......................................................................................... 15 2.3 Important disclaimers ............................................................................................................ 15 3 VOLUME 1: ELECTRICITY Projects ............................................................................................ 18 3.1 Methodology for electricity projects ....................................................................................... 18 3.2 Screening of electricity projects ............................................................................................. 32 3.3 Results for electricity infrastructure projects .......................................................................... 44 4 VOLUME 2: GAS PROJECTS ...................................................................................................... 55 4.1 Methodology for gas projects ................................................................................................ 55 4.2 Screening of gas projects ...................................................................................................... 67 4.3 Results for gas infrastructure projects ................................................................................... 87 5 VOLUME 3: OIL PROJECTS ...................................................................................................... 109 5.1 Methodology for oil projects ................................................................................................. 109 5.2 Eligibility of oil projects ........................................................................................................ 110 5.3 Verification of oil projects ..................................................................................................... 113 5.4 Evaluation of the oil projects ................................................................................................ 113 6 Final remarks on selection process ............................................................................................ 117 7 Annex 1. Modelling the CO2 emission effect of increased gas consumption ............................. 119 8 Annex 2. Country data electricity ................................................................................................ 121 9 Annex 3. Country data gas ......................................................................................................... 134 i LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Main input price assumptions in the two analysed scenarios ................................................. 22 Table 2. Compounded annual average consumption growth rates in the two analysed scenarios ...... 23 Table 3. Different project development phases of electricity projects assessed by the IPI .................. 30 Table 4. Proposed weights for each indicator for electricity projects .................................................... 31 Table 5. List of submitted electricity projects ......................................................................................... 35 Table 6. Technical data of the submitted electricity projects ................................................................. 37 Table 7. Summary of basic project data used in the evaluation ............................................................ 38 Table 8. Additional important project data for the evaluation ................................................................ 39 Table 9. Summary of the eligibility check and technical data validation ............................................... 41 Table 10. Delay of the projects relative to 2018 PECI/PMI submissions .............................................. 43 Table 11. Summary table of socio-economic assessment of eligible electricity projects, Energy Community Business as Usual scenario ............................................................................................... 47 Table 12. Summary table of socio-economic assessment of eligible electricity projects, ENTSOs National Trend scenario ........................................................................................................................ 47 Table 13. Sensitivity assessment results of the electricity projects, NPV m€ and B/C ratio ................. 49 Table 14. Values and scores of each indicator for each electricity infrastructure project in BAU scenario ............................................................................................................................................................... 51 Table 15. Values and scores of each indicator for each electricity infrastructure project in in the ENTSO- E NT scenario ........................................................................................................................................ 52 Table 16. Scores of each indicator and total scores for each electricity infrastructure project in the combined scenario (BAU and ENTSO-E NT) ........................................................................................ 53 Table 19. Different project development phases of gas projects assessed by the IPI.......................... 65 Table 20. Proposed weights for each indicator for gas projects ........................................................... 66 Table 21. Projects submitted ................................................................................................................. 68 Table 22. Brief description of gas projects submitted............................................................................ 70 Table 23. Technical information on projects submitted ......................................................................... 72 Table 24. Delay in project commissioning date compared to 2018 submission ................................... 73 Table 25. Eligibility check of natural gas projects.................................................................................. 76 Table 26. 2020 indexed unit investment cost of transmission pipelines commissioned in 2005- 2014 78 Table 27. Cost validation of natural gas projects .................................................................................. 79 Table 28: Technical data of projects and project clusters used for modelling ...................................... 83 Table 30. Input data and sources used for EGMM................................................................................ 88 Table 31. CBA results of the gas infrastructure projects, BAU scenario ............................................... 94 Table 32. CBA results of the gas infrastructure projects, Green scenario ............................................ 95 Table 33. Demand, supply and infrastructure sensitivity of gas infrastructure projects (EU27 +CPs) . 98 Table 34. Region sensitiviy effects on NPV (50% BAU, 50% Green results) ....................................... 99 Table 35. Scores of each indicator and total scores for each natural gas infrastructure project in developed gas markets under the BAU scenario ................................................................................ 102 Table 36. Scores of each indicator and total scores for each natural gas infrastructure project in developed gas markets under the GREEN scenario .......................................................................... 103 Table 37. Scores of each indicator and total scores for each natural gas infrastructure project in developed gas markets in the combined scenario (BAU and GREEN) .............................................. 104 Table 38. Scores of each indicator and total scores for each natural gas infrastructure project in countries with (further) gasification under the BAU scenario .............................................................. 105 Table 39. Scores of each indicator and total scores for each natural gas infrastructure project in countries with (further) gasification under the GREEN scenario ......................................................... 106 ii Table 40. Scores of each indicator and total scores for each natural gas infrastructure project in countries with (further) gasification in the combined scenario (BAU and GREEN) ............................. 107 Table 44. List of submitted oil projects ................................................................................................ 110 Table 45. Eligibility of oil infrastructure projects .................................................................................
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