Canada's Energy Future Includes Minor Revisions and an Expanded Appendices
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National Energy Office national Board de l’énergie National Energy Office national Board de l’énergie Canada’s Energy Future RefeRence case and scenaRios to 2030 National Energy Office national Board de l’énergie An EnErgy MArkEt AssEssMEnt novEMbEr 2007 National Energy Office national Board de l’énergie Canada’s Energy Future* RefeenergyRence case and scenaRios tofutures 2030 An EnErgy MArkEt AssEssMEnt novEMbEr 2007 * This edition of Canada's Energy Future includes minor revisions and an expanded Appendices. The National Energy Board has issued an Errata for Canada's Energy Future, available on the National Energy Board web site at www.neb-one.gc.ca. Please refer to this Errata for details of significant revisions. The Board apologizes for any inconvenience caused by these changes. 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Pour obtenir l’autorisation de reproduire l’information contenue dans cette publication à des fins commerciales, faire parvenir un courriel à : [email protected] © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada as © Sa Majesté la Reine du chef du Canada représentée par represented by the National Energy Board 2007 l’Office national de l’énergie 2007 Cat. No. NE23-15/2007E Nº de cat. NE23-15/2007F ISBN 978-0-662-46855-4 ISBN 978-0-662-07235-5 This report is published separately in both official Ce rapport est publié séparément dans les deux languages. This publication is available upon request in langues officielles. On peut obtenir cette publication sur multiple formats. supports multiples, sur demande. Copies are available on request from: Demandes d’exemplaires : The Publications Office Bureau des publications National Energy Board Office national de l’énergie 444 Seventh Avenue S.W. 444, Septième Avenue S.-O. Calgary, Alberta, T2P 0X8 Calgary (Alberta) T2P 0X8 E-Mail: [email protected] Courrier électronique : [email protected] Fax: 403-292-5576 Fax : 403-292-5576 Phone: 403-299-3562 Téléphone : 403-299-3562 1-800-899-1265 1-800-899-1265 Internet: www.neb-one.gc.ca Internet : www.neb-one.gc.ca For pick-up at the NEB office: Des exemplaires sont également disponibles à la Library bibliothèque de l’Office : Ground Floor Rez-de-chaussée Printed in Canada Imprimé au Canada TChABAPTElE OF rC ONTENTONE s List of Figures and Tables iii List of Acronyms and Abbreviations vi List of Units viii Executive Summary ix Analytical Overview xiii Overview of Reference Case and Scenarios xiii Overview of Key Assumptions and Quantitative Results xiv Conclusions xxiv Foreword xxvii Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Canada’s Energy Future: The 2007 Approach 2 Scenarios Used in this Report 2 Stakeholder Input 3 Report Structure 3 Chapter 2: Energy Context 4 Price of Energy 4 Global Context 5 Energy and Environmental Policy Developments 7 Demand Response 8 New and Emerging Technologies 8 Infrastructure 9 Energy in the Canadian Economy 10 Energy Exports 11 Canadian Reserves 11 Chapter 3: Reference Case 13 Reference Case Overview (2005-2015) 13 Macroeconomic Outlook 13 Energy Prices 14 Energy Demand 17 Oil Supply 21 Natural Gas Supply 27 Natural Gas Liquids 29 Electricity Supply 30 Coal 34 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 34 Reference Case Issues and Implications 36 National ENErgy Board i Chapter 4: Continuing Trends 37 Scenario Overview (2005-2030) 37 Macroeconomic Outlook 38 Energy Prices 39 Energy Demand 40 Oil Supply 43 Natural Gas Supply 47 Natural Gas Liquids 49 Electricity Supply 50 Coal 52 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 53 Continuing Trends Issues and Implications 55 Chapter 5: Triple E 57 Scenario Overview (2005-2030) 57 Macroeconomic Outlook 59 Energy Prices 60 Energy Demand 61 Oil Supply 71 Natural Gas Supply 76 Natural Gas Liquids 79 Electricity Supply 80 Coal 82 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 83 Triple E Issues and Implications 85 Chapter 6: Fortified Islands 87 Scenario Overview (2005-2030) 87 Macroeconomic Outlook 88 Energy Prices 89 Energy Demand 91 Oil Supply 94 Natural Gas Supply 97 Natural Gas Liquids 100 Electricity Supply 101 Coal 103 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 104 Fortified Islands Issues and Implications 105 Chapter 7: Conclusions: Key Implications for the Canadian Energy System 106 Glossary 112 Conversion Tables 120 Guide to Appendices 122 ii canadA’s energy fuTurE lChist APTEof figurrEs anOdNE tablEs Li s t o f fi g u r e s ES.1 Canadian Total Secondary Energy Demand x ES.2 Canadian GHG Emissions Intensity xi AO.1 Annual Average Growth Rate of Real GDP, Labour Force and Productivity – Reference Case 2004-2015 and Scenarios 2004-2030 xiv AO.2 Annual Average Growth Rate of Goods Producing Sector, Service Sector and Personal Disposable Income – Reference Case 2004-2015 and Scenarios 2004-2030 xv AO.3 Regional Composition of GDP, 2004 and 2030 xvi AO.4 West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price at Cushing, Oklahoma xvi AO.5 Natural Gas Price at Henry Hub, Louisiana xvii AO.6 Canadian Total Secondary Energy Demand xvii AO.7 Canadian Crude Oil Production Outlook xviii AO.8 Canadian Light Crude Oil Exports xix AO.9 Canadian Heavy Crude Oil Exports xix AO.10 Canadian Natural Gas Production Outlook xx AO.11 Canadian Natural Gas Net Exports xx AO.12 Electric Generation by Fuel and Scenario xxi AO.13 Canadian Coal Production and Disposition, 2005, 2015 and 2030 xxii AO.14 Canadian Total GHG Emissions xxiii AO.15 Canadian GHG Emissions Intensity xxiii 1.1 NEB Energy Futures Scenarios 2 2.1 Global Production and Consumption of Oil and Gas by Area, 2006 6 2.2 World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 2006 6 2.3 Estimated Proved Oil Reserves, 2005 12 3.1 Real GDP Growth Rates – Reference Case 2004-2015 15 3.2 West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price at Cushing, Oklahoma – Reference Case 15 3.3 Natural Gas Price at Henry Hub, Louisiana – Reference Case 16 3.4 Canadian Total Secondary Energy Demand Intensity – Reference Case 18 3.5 Canadian Residential Secondary Energy Demand by Fuel – Reference Case 18 3.6 Canadian Commercial Secondary Energy Demand by Fuel – Reference Case 19 3.7 Canadian Industrial Secondary Energy Demand by Fuel – Reference Case 20 3.8 Canadian Transportation Energy Demand by Fuel – Reference Case 21 3.9 Canadian Transportation Energy Demand by Mode – Reference Case 21 3.10 Total Canada Oil Production – Reference Case 22 3.11 WCSB Conventional Oil Production – Reference Case 23 3.12 Eastern Canada Light Crude Production – Reference Case 23 National ENErgy Board iii 3.13 Canadian Oil Sands Production – Reference Case 24 3.14 Supply and Demand Balance, Light Crude Oil – Reference Case 26 3.15 Supply and Demand Balance, Heavy Crude Oil – Reference Case 26 3.16 Natural Gas Production Outlook – Reference Case 27 3.17 Supply and Demand Balance, Natural Gas – Reference Case 29 3.18 Canadian Ethane Supply and Demand Balance – Reference Case 30 3.19 Canadian Generating Capacity – Reference Case 31 3.20 Canadian Generation – Reference Case 31 3.21 Interprovincial Transfers and Net Exports – Reference Case 33 3.22 Canadian Total GHG Emissions by Sector – Reference Case 35 3.23 Canadian Total GHG Intensity – Reference Case 35 4.1 Real GDP Growth Rates – Continuing Trends 2004-2030 38 4.2 West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price at Cushing, Oklahoma – Continuing Trends 39 4.3 Natural Gas Price at Henry Hub, Louisiana – Continuing Trends 39 4.4 Canadian Total Secondary Energy Demand by Fuel – Continuing Trends 40 4.5 Canadian Total Secondary Energy Demand Intensity – Continuing Trends 41 4.6 Canadian Residential Secondary Energy Demand by Fuel – Continuing Trends 41 4.7 Canadian Commercial Secondary Energy Demand by Fuel – Continuing Trends 42 4.8 Canadian Industrial Secondary Energy Demand by Fuel – Continuing Trends 42 4.9 Canadian Transportation Energy Demand by Fuel – Continuing Trends 43 4.10 Canadian Transportation Energy Demand by Mode – Continuing Trends 43 4.11 Total Canada Oil Production – Continuing Trends 44 4.12 WCSB Conventional Oil Production – Continuing Trends 44 4.13 Eastern Canada Light Crude Production – Continuing Trends 45 4.14 Canadian Oil Sands Production – Continuing Trends 45 4.15 Supply and Demand Balance, Light Crude Oil – Continuing Trends 47 4.16 Supply and Demand Balance, Heavy Crude Oil – Continuing Trends 47 4.17 Natural Gas Production Outlook – Continuing Trends 48 4.18 Supply and Demand Balance, Natural Gas