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Modeling Policy Pathways to Carbon Neutrality in Canada Modeling Policy Pathways to Carbon Neutrality in Canada by Ryan Safton B.A, University of Alberta, 2018 B.Sc, University of Alberta, 2015 Project Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Resource Management in the School of Resource and Environmental Management Faculty of Environment © Ryan Safton 2021 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Spring 2021 Copyright in this work rests with the author. Please ensure that any reproduction or re-use is done in accordance with the relevant national copyright legislation. Declaration of Committee Name: Ryan Safton Degree: Master of Resource Management Thesis title: Modeling Policy Pathways to Carbon Neutrality in Canada Project Number: 765 Committee: Chair: Gabrielle Diner Masters Candidate, Energy and Material Research Group Mark Jaccard Senior Supervisor Professor, Energy and Material Research Group Bradford Griffin Supervisor Adjunct Professor, Energy and Material Research Group ii Abstract The Canadian government has made commitments to transition Canada to a carbon neutral economy by 2050, but to date have yet to announce a policy pathway to achieve its goal. This study uses the CIMS energy-economy model to assess two policy packages that could help Canada achieve carbon neutrality by 2050: one focusing on carbon pricing and the other on flexibly designed regulations. Each were modeled in two scenarios, which represented different levels of global climate action. Both policy packages are likely to achieve significant emissions reductions, though reductions will likely come from different sectors of the Canadian economy depending on how aggressively the rest of the world acts on climate change. Keywords: climate policy; carbon neutral; energy-economy modeling; energy; economics iii Acknowledgements I would like to begin by thanking Professor Mark Jaccard who never ceased to be enthusiastic about my work and always encouraged me to pursue new avenues of thinking. Thanks to all my peers in the Energy and Materials Research Group especially Brad, Gabi, and Mariah who were always happy to talk about research, work on projects together, and solve the mysteries of CIMS as a team. While it was strange not being able to see any of you in person for the last year, I always appreciated our chats whether in person or over Zoom. I would also like to thank Aaron, Thomas and Brad Griffin for their support during my research and their willingness to give me advice on my future endeavours. Thanks to all of my friends and family for their continued encouragement throughout the years. And most of all thanks to my partner Sarah, who managed to keep me sane through the long hours working on this project and a year of quarantine in our tiny apartment. iv Table of Contents Declaration of Committee ................................................................................................ ii Abstract .......................................................................................................................... iii Dedication ..................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.iv Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................... ivv Table of Contents ......................................................................................................... vvi List of Tables ............................................................................................................. viiviii List of Figures............................................................................................................. viiiix List of Acronyms .............................................................................................................. x Glossary ........................................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.xi Preface/Executive Summary/Image ............................. Error! Bookmark not defined.xii Chapter 1. Introduction and Background ............................................................... 1 1.1. Evaluating Policies .............................................................................................. 54 1.2. The Transition to Carbon Neutrality ................................................................. 1110 1.3. Need for Analysis ............................................................................................ 1514 Chapter 2. Methods ............................................................................................ 1716 2.1. Overview of the CIMS Model ........................................................................... 1716 2.1.1. Market Share and Capital Cost Equations .......................................... 1716 2.1.2. Simulation Settings ............................................................................ 2019 2.2. Changes Made to the CIMS Model .................................................................. 2322 2.2.1. Coal to Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage ......................... 2322 2.2.2. Biomethane ........................................................................................ 2423 2.2.3. Biodiesel ............................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.23 2.2.4. Agriculture .......................................................................................... 2624 2.3. Scenarios ........................................................................................................ 2624 2.3.1. Oil Price and Production Assumptions ............................................... 2625 2.3.2. Accelerated Cost Declines ................................................................. 2827 2.3.3. Addressing Carbon Leakage ................. Error! Bookmark not defined.29 2.4. Cases .................................................................................................................. 31 2.4.1. Reference .......................................................................................... 3233 2.4.2. Carbon Tax Cases ............................................................................. 3435 2.4.3. Flexible Regulations Cases .................................................................... 38 Commercial and Residential............................................................................ 3938 Transportation ................................................................................................. 4039 Biodiesel and Ethanol Production ................................................................... 4140 Chapter 3. Results and Discussion ................................................................... 4241 3.1. National Results .............................................................................................. 4241 3.2. Scenario Results ............................................................................................. 4443 3.3. Sectoral Results .............................................................................................. 4644 3.3.1. Emissions Intensive Trade Exposed Industries ....... Error! Bookmark not defined.44 v 3.3.2. Electricity............................................................................................ 4947 3.3.3. Residential and Commercial .............................................................. 5250 3.3.4. Personal Transportation ..................................................................... 5451 3.3.5. Freight Transportation ........................................................................ 5652 3.3.6. Low Carbon Fuel Sectors ................................................................... 5854 Chapter 4. Conclusions ..................................................................................... 6257 4.1. Summary of Findings ....................................................................................... 6257 4.2. Limitations and Future Research ..................................................................... 6458 References ............................................................................................................... 6560 Appendix A. Supplemental Information ................................................................ 7161 vi List of Tables Table 1: Oil production, oil price, and RPP price assumptions made in this study ..... 2827 Table 2: Matrix of cases modeled in this study .......................................................... 3132 Table 3: OBPS tiers used in the Flex Regs and C Tax Inaction cases, with 2050 emissions prices................................................................................. 3837 Table 4: Fuel shares in the residential sector for all of Canada in 2050 . Error! Bookmark not defined.51 Table 5: 2050 passenger vehicle motor shares grouped into electric and hybrid. ...... 5553 Table 6: Light-medium and heavy motor market shares of all six cases in 2050 ........ 5654 vii List of Figures Figure 1: Canadian GHG emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018 ................................... 2 Figure 2: Canadian emissions by province from 1990 to 2018 ...................................... 43 Figure 3: Carbon price in the C Tax and Ref cases ................................................... 3536 Figure 4: OBPS price tiers in the Inaction case ............ Error! Bookmark not defined.37 Figure 5: Net GHG emissions by case ...................................................................... 4342 Figure 6: Canadian GHG emissions by case and sector ..........................................
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