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Durham E-Theses Durham E-Theses HOW CONDITIONS OF STATE WEAKNESS HAVE INFLUENCED IRAQI FOREIGN POLICY PRODUCTION 2003-2013 YOUNIS, NUSSAIBAH How to cite: YOUNIS, NUSSAIBAH (2014) HOW CONDITIONS OF STATE WEAKNESS HAVE INFLUENCED IRAQI FOREIGN POLICY PRODUCTION 2003-2013, Durham theses, Durham University. Available at Durham E-Theses Online: http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/10697/ Use policy The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that: • a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in Durham E-Theses • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. Please consult the full Durham E-Theses policy for further details. Academic Support Oce, Durham University, University Oce, Old Elvet, Durham DH1 3HP e-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44 0191 334 6107 http://etheses.dur.ac.uk 2 ABSTRACT This thesis examines the impact of state weakness on Iraqi foreign policy since the US invasion. Drawing on the concept of the social contract in political theory, this project seeks to untangle the relationship between state legitimacy, violence and foreign policy. In the aftermath of the toppling of Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi state has undergone many forms of weakness. Each chapter of this dissertation deals with a qualitatively different moment in the trajectory of Iraqi state weakness and analyses the impact on the key foreign policies or relationships of that period. The limited research that has been conducted on post-invasion Iraq’s foreign relations has tended to portray Iraq as a passive victim of external interference. There have not been any comprehensive examinations of the way in which Iraq’s internal politics influence the activity of foreign powers in Iraq; nor of Iraq’s own foreign policy activity. The result is that little is understood about how post-invasion Iraq is positioning itself in a volatile regional environment. The literature on foreign policy analysis has a propensity to focus overwhelmingly on the role of great powers in the international system. Where small or weak states have been addressed, they are seen as merely responding to their vulnerable position in the hierarchy of powers. Drawing on recent work on the international relations of African states, this study introduces a new research agenda that seeks to understand the relationship between state weakness and foreign policy production. HOW CONDITIONS OF STATE WEAKNESS HAVE INFLUENCED IRAQI FOREIGN POLICY PRODUCTION 2003-2013 DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY NUSSAIBAH YOUNIS SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS UNIVERSITY OF DURHAM 2014 2 CONTENTS ABSTRACT 1 ACKNOWELDGEMENTS 8 INTRODUCTION 10 CHAPTER OUTLINE 14 CHAPTER ONE: CONCEPTUALISING WEAK STATE FOREIGN POLICY 18 INTRODUCTION 18 CONCEPTUALISING THE WEAK STATE 18 Social Contract Theory and the Basis of State Strength 19 The Substance of the Social Contract 22 The Coercive State 26 Defining the Weak State 28 Alternative Conceptualisations 31 FOREIGN POLICY OF WEAK STATES 35 Internal Threats Prevail 37 ‘National Interests’ Do Not Direct Foreign Policy 39 Decision-Making is Highly Personalised 41 Capacity and Foreign Policy Making 43 HYPOTHESISING WEAK STATE FOREIGN POLICY 44 CHAPTER TWO: METHODOLOGY AND RESEARCH METHODS 51 METHODOLOGY 51 RESEARCH METHODS 54 Data Collection 56 A Two-Way Street: Some Ethical Considerations 57 Analysing Semi-Structured Interviews 58 CONCLUSION 61 CHAPTER THREE: IRAQ OCCUPIED 62 INTRODUCTION 62 PROVOKING REGIONAL ENMITY TOWARDS THE NEW IRAQ 64 Syria 66 Iran 69 Hezbollah 71 The Arab World 74 Arab Reporting of the War 77 TRANSITIONAL IRAQI GOVERNMENT FOREIGN POLICY 80 Outreach to the Arab and Muslim World 81 Debt Forgiveness 84 Rebuilding a Foreign Ministry 86 CONCLUSION 87 CHAPTER FOUR: IRAN IN THE IRAQI CIVIL WAR 91 3 INTRODUCTION 91 DISMAL PERFORMANCE OF IRAQ’S FIRST ELECTED GOVERNMENT 93 THE FOREIGN MINISTRY IN A TIME OF CRISIS 98 IRAN IN IRAQ’S CIVIL WAR 100 Iranian Interests 100 Patronising Iraqi Political Parties 102 Fuelling Iraq’s Militias 107 Shutting Down Mujahedin-e Khalq 116 Iran and the Iraqi Foreign Ministry 117 Soft Power 120 Economic Ties 121 IRANIAN RELATIONS WITH KURDISTAN 122 THE END OF THE JA’FARI GOVERNMENT 125 CONCLUSION 126 CHAPTER FIVE: TURKEY AND A STABILISING IRAQ 129 INTRODUCTION 129 MALIKI COMES TO POWER 130 Continuing Violence in Iraq 134 THE ‘AWAKENING’ 135 The Awakening as Sub-State Foreign Policy 137 THE SURGE, CRACKDOWN ON SHI’ITE MILITIAS AND STABILISATION 143 TURKEY 145 Re-Engaging with Iraq 145 Cross-Border Raids and the Iraqi Government 146 Turkey and the Kurdistan Regional Government 148 Turkey’s Relationship with Iraq’s Sunni Leaders 152 CONCLUSION 154 CHAPTER SIX: NEGOTIATING WITH THE US IN A STRENGTHEND IRAQ 158 INTRODUCTION 158 IRAQI STATE STRENGTH AND MALIKI’S POPULARITY 159 ‘NOW HE’S TOO STRONG’: MALIKI AND SOFA NEGOTIATIONS 161 STRONGER IRAQ, WEAKER KURDISTAN? 165 The Battle over Kurdish Oil 169 CREEPING AUTHORITARIANISM AND WEAKENING LEGITIMACY 173 Iraq’s Armed Forces 173 2010 Parliamentary Elections 175 Growing Disillusionment of the Iraqi Public 176 NEGOTIATING A SOFA EXTENSION 177 CONCLUSION 180 CHAPTER SEVEN: SYRIA AND THE SECOND IRAQI CIVIL WAR 181 INTRODUCTION 181 US WITHDRAWAL AND THE POWER TO BE WEAK 181 THE SUNNI PROTEST MOVEMENT 185 A Second Civil War? 191 Maliki Weakened 193 4 IRAQI STATE WEAKNESS AND THE SYRIAN CONFLICT 195 The KRG in Syria 201 CONCLUSION 206 CHAPTER 8: CONCLUSIONS 208 UTILITY AND LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHESES 209 BIBLIOGRAPHY 219 SELECTED LIST OF INTERVIEWS 232 5 This thesis is the result of my own work. Material from the published or unpublished work of others which is used in the thesis is credited to the author in question in the text. Nussaibah Younis 4th February 2014 6 ‘Your foreign policy is a reflection of your domestic politics, if you have a cohesive, unified, politically stable country, internal security, a unified vision of your interests then it would be very, very easy to conduct your foreign policy. But if you have instability, if you have insecurity, if you have terrorist attacks, if you have civil strife let’s say, if you have poverty, if you have these things…it would be extremely difficult.’ Hoshyar Zebari, Iraqi Foreign Minister Interview with the Author 7 ACKNOWELDGEMENTS This PhD has been generously supported by many individuals and institutions to whom I wish to express my deep gratitude. I want to thank Durham University for fully funding the PhD, and for funding my Arabic study in Amman. The Centre for the Advanced Study of the Arab World funded my two year MSc which included a year of intensive Arabic teaching in Edinburgh and Cairo. The Norman Richardson Foundation and the Santander Mobility Fund funded my pre-doctoral fellowship at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School. The British Institute for the Study of Iraq funded my fieldwork in Iraq, Amman, London and Washington DC. The School of Government and International Affairs supported my attendance at a Chatham House Workshop in London, and is helping to fund my participation in the International Studies Association Conference in Toronto where I have organized a panel on Foreign Policy Making in Weak States. The Japan Society for the Promotion of Science funded my participation at a Cairo-based conference on Iraqi politics, where I was also able to conduct fieldwork. I also want to thank Chatham House for funding my participation in an Iraqi Foreign Policy Making Workshop in Washington DC and for making my Iraq: 10 Years On conference into a reality. Professor John Williams taught me how to write a thesis and guided me every step of the way. Professor James Piscatori has celebrated my every achievement, and supported me despite everything he had going on. Professor Emma Murphy told me what I needed to hear at just the right time. Lorraine Holmes has always taken the time to help. The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School has hosted me for two years as a pre- doctoral fellow in a world-class intellectual environment. Professor Steven Miller and Professor Sean Lynn-Jones have been a source of much advice and support. Sharon Wilke helped me to publish articles in The New York Times, and cheered on my TV commentating. I may never have got started if Dr Elisabeth Kendall had not taken a chance on me. I can never thank enough all those I interviewed who contributed hours of their time to my research without asking anything in return. Thanks to Ayad Allawi, Hoshyar Zebari, Barham Salih, Safa al-Sheikh, Labeed Abbawi, Prince Turki al- 8 Faisal, Fuad Hussein, Falah Mustafa Bakr, Mala Bakhtiar, Hamid al-Bayati, Rafea Abdul Jaber, Kais al-Azawi, Heirsch Muharmam, Aydin Selcin, Hamid Darbandi, Sadoun al-Zubaydi, Mouayad al-Windawi, Harith al-Qarawee, Haydar Said, Suhad Talabany, Mohammed Hussainey, Mudhaffar Amin, Yahya al-Kubaisi, Hamid Halgurd Mala, Chia Nashirwan Mustafa, Bayan Sami Abdul-Rahman, and Kanan Makiya. There are many others who would prefer not to be named, and to them I also offer my profound thanks. Many people have facilitated my fieldwork and made it a much more enjoyable experience. Thanks to Mark Salih, Harith al-Qarawee, Ahmed Ali and Karwan al-Zebari in Washington DC, Isabel Coles and Patrick Osgood in Erbil, Hiwa Jaff in Suleymaniyah, Mustafa al-Ayish in Cairo, and Carol Palmer and Sadoun al-Zubaydi in Amman. Also thanks to Iraq tweeps who can answer the most obscure Iraq questions, Haydar al-Khoi, Kirk Sowell, Joel Wing, Reider Visser, Fanar Haddad and the rest.
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