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Investigation of Drought in the Northern Iraq Region

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Investigation of Drought in the Northern Iraq Region Received: 22 September 2018 Revised: 2 December 2018 Accepted: 8 January 2019 DOI: 10.1002/met.1778 RESEARCH ARTICLE Investigation of drought in the northern Iraq region Kasım Yenigun1 | Wlat A. Ibrahim2 1Civil Engineering Department, Harran University, Engineering Faculty, S¸anlıurfa, Turkey Drought is a phenomenon of climate and is one of the catastrophic events that 2Graduate School of Natural and Applied cause much damage on each occurrence. One of the ways of drought adjustment, Sciences, Harran University, S¸anlıurfa, Turkey evaluation and drought monitoring is based on indicators that can be used to deter- Correspondence mine its extent and continuity in a region. In this study, drought analysis (the dura- Kasim Yenigun, Civil Engineering Department, tion and severity of drought) in the north Iraq region was studied by using the Harran University, Engineering Faculty, Osmanbey Campus, 63200, S¸anlıurfa, Turkey. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for time intervals of 1, 3, 6, 9 and Email: [email protected] 12 months. That feature of this method helps to compare the drought events in dif- ferent places and scales. To observe dry and wet periods and the severity and length of drought monthly rainfall data of 15 meteorological stations of the north- ern Iraq provinces from 1979 to 2013 were used. Calculations were performed on the SPI by using the SPI code in MATLAB computer software. The results of the study showed that the continuity of dry periods in the 6, 9 and 12 month periods was higher than in the 1 and 3 month time intervals. Moreover, according to the calculation, the driest year was observed in 2008. This analysis is essential because it gives full information about the longest dry and wet periods for all stations of the region. KEYWORDS drought, drought duration, drought severity, northern Iraq, standard precipitation index 1 | INTRODUCTION length of the drought, and they are defined as meteorologi- cal, agricultural, hydrological and socioeconomic drought. Natural disasters such as floods, thunderstorms, drought are It should also be noted that the effects of rainfall reduc- characteristics of our environment. These disasters make a tion on soil moisture, water reservoirs, surface currents of negative impact and irreparably damage human life. Accord- rivers and groundwater levels are shown at different time ing to the literature, the number and incidence of these scales (Lloyd-Hughes and Saunders, 2002). events have increased over the past 30 years. About 25% of Drought definitions, especially regarding the impact on them are events related to climatic factors. Drought is one of the natural and social environment, are always changing. It the main causes of these events, perhaps the most influential seems reasonable to relate drought to a large scale with time, (Kogan, 1990). period length and location of its occurrence (Tsakiris and Drought is one of the significant hazards associated with Vangelis, 2003). meteorology. This natural hazard affects all aspects of our In advanced stages of drought, water resources encounter life. At the international level, there is no single definition of a severe shortage. In most areas of the world, groundwater drought that is universally accepted. In general, drought resources have been exploited as a source for public con- occurs when there is a decrease in water, both at the site and sumption as well as agricultural activities (Scheidleder et al., at a specific time (Correia et al., 1991). Each drought is 1999); this means that the reaction of groundwater to characterized by three characteristics: intensity, length and drought has become important (Calow et al., 1999). width. There are a variety of types of drought due to the Although underground is one of the most critical water Meteorol Appl. 2019;1–10. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/met © 2019 Royal Meteorological Society 1 2 YENIGUN AND IBRAHIM sources in the world, it is not considered in many studies of monthly total rainfall data collected from 15 meteorological drought. observation stations. The SPI which is widely accepted In any case, for quantitative analysis of drought, the exis- throughout the world was used to determine the drought. tence of a specific indicator for the accurate determination of Temporal drought values were evaluated according to 1, 3, wet and dry periods is essential (Silva, 2003). 6, 9 and 12 month time scales for determining the dry and The efficiency of drought monitoring systems is pro- wet periods. foundly influenced by the accuracy of the selection of indi- The main difference between this and previous studies cators that provide a detailed description of the actual state for northern Iraq’s drought is the data used (Awchi and of drought conditions. In recent years, several indicators Kalyana, 2017). These are more accurate, because the have been proposed for the study of drought. Moreover, nec- amount of missing data is less than in previous work. Thus, essarily each of these indicators is related to one of four the result is more accurate. The longest dry and wet periods types of drought (Mendicino et al., 2008), e.g. the Palmer for all stations were found in this study. All situations for all Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the Shafer and Dezmann time scales are shown on the maps by using ArcMap soft- Surface Water Supply Index, the Ball and Mole Index, the ware. The percentages of all situations for all time scales Johnville and others index, and the Standardized Precipita- were found. Also the number of stations is more than in pre- tion Index (SPI) which was introduced by McKee and others vious studies. in 1993 (McKee et al., 1993). After a general evaluation of the literature, it can be seen that drought analysis is critical for any region to understand 3 | MATERIALS AND METHODS its daily condition and to design some water structures or plan water management. Beside this, there is no detailed 3.1 | Study area study on drought in the northern Iraq region, an essential The study area of northern Iraq has an area of 40,643 km2. part of Iraq which has important rivers. This situation encouraged the preparation of this study. North Iraq is at 36 N and 44 E. The southern parts of Iraq are located in the tropics and its northern parts are in semi- arid regions. Figure 1 shows the study area. There are four 2 | LITERATURE STUDY main rivers in northern Iraq, the Euphrates, Tigris, Diyala and the Lower Zab. Palmer (1965) proposed the PDSI which is based on produc- The Euphrates is one of the two major rivers in Asia and tion and demand for water balance. After that, some the Middle East. It is the longest river in the region with a researchers realized that an index is easy to calculate and sta- length of 1,700 miles (2,800 km). The Tigris is the second tistically relevant and meaningful. Moreover, the under- largest river in Iraq with a length of 1,150 miles (1,850 km). standing that a deficit of precipitation has different impacts They come from the eastern mountains of Turkey. The on groundwater, reservoir storage, soil moisture, snowpack Tigris river arrives in Iraq, where it connects with the and streamflow led scientists like McKee to develop the SPI Euphrates to form the Shat Al-Arab River. in 1993. This was used for western Kansas, central Iowa and The Diyala river is the third highest river in Iraq at Colorado, United States (Shafer and Dezman, 1982; McKee 277 miles (445 km). This river comes from the Zagros et al., 1993), and in Hungary (Szalai et al., 2000). Mountains in western Iran and flows to Iraq through the Drought severity characteristics using the SPI were stud- lowlands. The Lower Zab, also known as the Little Zab, ied by Hayes et al. (1999), in Catalonia, Spain, by Lana comes from the Zagros Mountains in Iran, where it is tied to et al. (2001), in China (Wu and Hayes, 2001), in Cordoba, the Tigris. The river is 249 miles (400 km) long. It passes Argentina (Lloyd-Hughes and Saunders, 2002), in Greece through different environmental zones that result in the (Loukas et al., 2004), in the Aegean region, Greece (Pamuk growth of different plants (Sawe, 2017). et al., 2004), in Trakya, Turkey (Çaldag et al., 2004), in S¸anlıurfa, Turkey (Tonkaz et al., 2005), in the Awash River 3.2 | Data basin, Ethiopia (Edossa et al., 2010), in Albania (Merkoci et al., 2013), in Iraq (Al-Timimi et al., 2013), in Antakya- Meteorological data are used in this study. Rainfall is the Kahramanmaras¸, Turkey (Karabulut, 2015), in S¸anlıurfa, main parameter of the evolution of a meteorological drought, Turkey (Gümüs and Basak, 2017), in the Seyhan–Ceyhan so rainfall data were collected from the meteorological river basins, Turkey (Gümüs¸ and Algın, 2017), and in north- observation stations in different cities of northern Iraq ern Iraq (Awchi and Kalyana, 2017). (Meteorological Organization of North Iraq and Global The aim of this study was to find the longest dry and wet Weather Data) and the software needed was available in the periods and their severity for different meteorological sta- laboratory of the Civil Engineering Department of Harran tions in the northern Iraq region. A drought analysis of the University. Table 1 gives the general information of the sta- area under consideration was carried out by using long-term tions used in the drought analysis. According to this, YENIGUN AND IBRAHIM 3 FIGURE 1 Study area [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com] TABLE 1 The climatic and geographical characteristics of all stations Station no. Station ID Station name Longitude
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