ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL PATTERN OF LARGE MANUFACTURING INDEXES IN FOR 2018 PJAEE, 17 (6) (2020)

ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL PATTERN OF LARGE MANUFACTURING INDEXES IN IRAQ FOR 2018

Mahya Mohsen Hassan Department of Geography, College of Education for Humanities, University, Kirkuk. Iraq Corresponding author: [email protected]

ABSTRACT

Undoubtedly, industries generally have a great importance. Transformational industries have a special importance in changing economic, social and political balances of the state. This importance is ascribed to the possibility of affecting these economic and social indictors directly on the level of individuality and community. Industrial indicators were detected and analytically investigated which were far from their specialization such as permanent workers, commodity manufacturing employees, wrapping, service requirements and etc. Some of the positives and negatives that represent gaps must be addressed in a purely scientific and logical manner to guide decision-makers to this vital issue. The research problem lies in the fact that despite the abundance of data that contribute to advancing the transformation industries, their contribution to the national product is minimal. The study aims to uncover the governorates ranks by using the employment analysis according to the study indicators and highlight the sector having the highest rank in the number of establishments, the absorption of manpower and the sales value. However, the study found that the pattern of spatial distribution of the indicators in the governorates of and Babylon recorded high values and for all the indicators of the study. These indicators represent two important poles for the manufacturing industries where decision-makers shall direct attention to, stimulate, develop, and even transform them into industrial cities similar to the advanced industrial countries. The private sector had the largest share of industrial establishments and workers in the study area.

Keywords: manufacturing industries - spatial pattern - factor analysis - sales value - coefficient of variance

Introduction

Industry occupies an important position among economic activities in most countries and plays a special role in improving the economy. Manufacturing is one of the productive activities, if not the most important of them, representing the basis of the economy of contemporary societies in particular.

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It is essential for achieving economic, social and political progress through the great role it plays in improving the living standards and social conditions of the population (R.J.johnston1978). This is achieved by providing various needs and employing as much as possible the labor force, especially labor- intensive manufacturing industries. In addition, it is the main market for extractive products, agricultural products (industrial agricultural products), and the services sector. It directly affects the revitalization of trade and local and regional transport. Based on this importance, countries seek to develop manufacturing industries and rely on them in the development and revitalization of their economies(K.H.yuan2004). Iraq is one of the countries that have been interested in manufacturing industries in the past and utilized them as a means to satisfy its needs (self-sufficiency) for some products. However, they are mostly consumer industries and based on the public and private sector in most of their activities. Accordingly, this research aims at investigating and analyzing the activity of large manufacturing industries in order to determine the extent of its development and contribution to gross domestic product (henceforth, GDP) through using factor analysis.

1. Index of Large Manufacturing Industries in Iraq during 2015-2018

Table (1) and figure (1) clarify the number of industrial establishments for large manufacturing industries in Iraq and their relative importance, reaching 621industrial establishments in2015. However, this number decreased to 586 in 2016 and continued decreasing to reach 574 in 2017. This decrease is attributed to the terrorist operations experienced by many provinces, which negatively affected all economic activities, including industrial activity (Al- Janabi, 2013).Then, they recovered in 2018 to reach (627) industrial establishments due to the rehabilitation of some of them in areas that have been destroyed by terrorism, especially in the provinces of Nineveh, Baghdad and Salah al-Din. Concerning the rate of change during 2017-2018, it reached (9.2%).As for the number of employees, it is one of the most important international standards adopted to measure the reality of industries in a region and investigate the implications of this number. Hence, providing job opportunities, eliminating unemployment and the optimal utilization of human resources in the development process are the main objectives of the process of economic and social development. The index of the number of employees is one of the indexes contributing to the achievement of development (Al-Azzawi, 2013).In Iraq, this number has fluctuated between decrease and increase due to the fluctuation in the number of industrial establishments as mentioned earlier. Based on table (1), this index reached (129,224) employees in 2015, but in 2018 it reached (115,986) employees. This index recorded an annual change rate (1.3%), which represents a low rate. As for the value of wages, it reached (1,307,436) million/dinars in 2015,

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but decreased in 2016 and 2017; while in 2018 it increased to (1,306,191) million/dinars with a slight change of (4.1%).

Table 1: industrial indexes for large manufacturing industries in Iraq during 2015-2018

Rate of Indexes 2015 2016 2017 2018 change (2017-2018) Number of industrial 621 586 574 627 9.2 establishments Number of employees 129224 117020 114497 115986 1.3 The value of wages and 1307436 1220420 1255094 1306191 4.1 benefits (million dinars) Production value (million 423550 4866859 6937474 6410012 7.6 - dinars) Value of supplies (million 2271691 3027024 3358774 3678466 9.5 dinars) Sales value (million dinars) 3918135 4631424 5861615 6131458 4.6 Value added (million dinars) 1963860 1839835 3578700 2731546 23.7 -

Source: Researcher based on the Ministry of Planning, Central Bureau of Statistics, Department of Industrial2018 Statistics, Unpublished Data, 2018 )1 . (

: .)1( Figure 1: number of industrial manufacturing establishments for 2018

Source: Researcher based on Table (1).

The value of production was the highest in 2017, reaching (6,937,474 million/dinar), while the lowest value recorded in 2015 was (423,550) million/dinars with a lower negative annual rate of change (-7.6%). In terms of the value of supplies, the lowest value in 2015 was (2,271,691) million/dinar, while the highest value was (3,678,466) million/dinar in 2018. Concerning the value of sales, the lowest value was in 2015, while the highest value was (6,131,458) million/dinar in 2018. This fluctuation in the number of establishments and employees affected

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value added whose lowest value was (1,839,835) million/dinar in 2016, and then it increased to reach the highest value (3,578,700) million/dinar in 2018.

2. Average Wages of Employees and Manufacturing Ratio during 2015-2018

The average wage of employees is one of the important indexes by which the economic importance of industrial activity can be measured (As-Samak, 2008).Table (2) and figure (2) represent the average wages of employees in large manufacturing industries. It is observed that the productivity of employees from the value of total production varied during 2015-2018.For the productivity of the employee from production, the highest percentage was (60.6) in 2017 with a low negative annual rate of change (-8.7%) for 2017- 2018. While the highest percentage of employee's productivity from value added was (31.2%) in 2017 with a negative rate of change (- 24.4%).Moreover, the highest productivity of dinar from wages reached (5.5%) in 2017with a negative annual rate of change (-10.9%). The highest rate of employee's average wage from supplies was (31.8%) in 2018 with a high rate of change (8.5%). The highest average wage of employee was (11.3) in 2018 with an annual rate of change (2.7%), while the highest rate of manufacturing was (62.2%) in 2016 with an annual rate of change (2.7%).

Table 2: Average wage of employees and manufacturing rate for 2018

Indexes 2015 2016 2017 2018 Rate of change (2017-2018) Employee's productivity from production 32.8 41.6 60.6 55.3 8.7- (million dinars) Employee's productivity from value added 15.2 15.7 31.2 23.6 24.4- (million dinars) Dinar productivity from wages 3.2 4.0 5.5 4.9 10.9- Employee's average wage from supplies(million 17.6 25.9 29.3 31.8 8.5 dinars) Average of employee's annual wage (million 10.2 10.5 11.0 11.3 2.7 dinars) Manufacturing percentage 53.6 62.2 48.4 57.0 17.8

Source: Researcher based on the Ministry of Planning, Central Bureau of Statistics, Department of Industrial Statistics, Unpublished Data, 2018 .

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Figure 2: Average wage of employees in large manufacturing industries in Iraq for 2018

Source: Researcher based on Table (2).

3. Index of Large Manufacturing Industries in Iraq by Sector for 2018

Index of large manufacturing sectors is necessary for identifying the extent to which these sectors contribute to the country's economic activity (Hassan, 2002). According to the results presented in table (3) and figure (3), the number of manufacturing industrial establishments in the private sector amounted to (536) with a relative importance of (85.4%) of the total industrial establishments , followed by the government sector (47)establishments with a relative importance of (7.4%). The public sector had (35) establishments with a relative importance of (6%)of the total industrial establishments. However, the lowest percentage was recorded for the mixed sector represented by (9) establishments. As for employees in the public sector, they accounted for the highest number represented by (53,063) workers out of (115,986)the total of workers, followed by the government sector (36,874) workers, and then the private sector (24,167) workers. Similarly, the wage in the public sector was (688,604 million/dinars), representing the highest value; while the lowest value was recorded for the mixed sector. Regarding the value of production, the private sector recorded the highest value that reached (2,483,223) million/dinar; on the contrary, the mixed sector recorded the lowest value. The supplies value in the private sector reached (1,905,107) million/ dinar, but the lowest value was recorded for the mixed sector. Furthermore, the private sector had the highest value of sales that reached (2,367,301) million/dinar, while the lowest value was for the mixed sector. As for value added, it is one of the basic criteria in measuring the economic weight of industries (Kotler & Dubois, 1994).In this

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regard, the public sector recorded the highest value in 2018, reaching (1,297,302) million/dinar, but the mixed sector recorded the lowest value.

Table 3:indexoflarge manufacturing industries in Iraq in 2018 by sector

Indexes Government Public Mixed Private Total Number of establishments 47 35 9 536 627 Number of employees 36874 53063 1882 24167 115986

The value of wages and benefits 447521 688604 22718 147348 1306191 (million dinars)

Production value (million dinars) 1617486 1988866 320437 2483223 6410012 Value of supplies (million dinars) 827122 691564 254673 1905107 3678466 Sales value (million dinars) 1617829 1807858 338470 2367301 6131458 Value added (million dinars) 790364 1297302 65764 578116 2731546

Source: Researcher based on the Ministry of Planning, Central Bureau of Statistics, Department of Industrial Statistics, Unpublished Data, 2018.

Figure 3: the relative importance of manufacturing industries in Iraq by sectors for 2018

Source: Researcher based on Table (3).

4. The Relative Importance of Large Manufacturing Index in Iraq by Provinces for 2018

Table (4)clarifies the relative importance of large manufacturing index in Iraq for 2018 by provinces. It shows that Baghdad acquired the highest percentage in terms of the number of industrial establishments with a relative importance of (15.3%), followed by Babylon and Maysan (10.3%) for each, then Diyala (9.5%) and Qadisiyah (8.9%) of the total industrial

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establishments .Concerning other provinces, they recorded low rates. In relation to the number of employees, Baghdad also recorded the highest percentage (39.4%), followed by (9.6%), then Babylon (9.3%). The index of wages and benefits was the highest in Baghdad with (41.4%),followed by Basra (18%), then Babylon (7%). Similarly, the value of production was the highest in Baghdad with (29.3%), followed by Babylon (29%), then Basra (19.5%).These three provinces recorded the highest rate in terms of sales value with a relative importance of (32%, 25%, and 20.1%) for Baghdad, Babylon and Basra, respectively. In relation to the value of supplies, it was varied that Babylon recorded the highest percentage (38.2%), followed by Baghdad (22.8%), then Basra (16.5%) of the total value of supplies.

Based on the above, it is clear that the provinces of Baghdad, Babylon and Basra accounted for (31%) of large manufacturing establishments in Iraq in 2018, (58.3%) of the total number of employees, and approximately (66.4%) for the wages and benefits,(77.8%)for the sales and (77.5%)for the supplies. This indicates that these three provinces have an economic weight (industrial) and therefore the development plans for improving the industry sector must be directed towards these indexes in these three provinces where manufacturing activity is concentrated.

Table 4:the relative importance of large manufacturing index in Iraq for 2018

Value of Number of Value of Value of Number of wages Value of Provinces establishments production supplies % employees% (thousand sales % % % dinars)% Nineveh 5.5 4.6 2.3 0.9 1 1.0 Kirkuk 4.9 4.5 6.5 6.5 7 5.4 Diyala 9.5 3.7 2.5 1.3 1.1 1.3 Anbar 1.4 3.2 3 0.3 0.1 0.2 Baghdad 15.6 39.4 41.4 29.3 32 22.8 Babylon 10.3 9.3 7 29 25 38.2 Karbala 3.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 5.2 Wasit 6.8 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Salahaddin 1.7 2.6 2.1 0.7 0.6 0.3 Najaf 4.9 5.2 4 1.9 1.8 1.4 Qadisiyah 8.9 3.5 2 1.5 1.4 1.3 Muthanna 5.9 2.1 1 1.6 1.9 1.4 ThiQar 5.4 4.3 4.8 2.5 3 2.6 Maysan 10.3 3.6 3 3.9 3.4 2.6 Basra 5.9 9.6 18 19.5 20.1 16.5

Source: Researcher based on Appendix (1).

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Figure 4: the relative importance of the number of manufacturing establishments in Iraq by provinces for 2018

Source: Researcher based on Table (4).

Practical Part

1. Introduction to Factor Analysis as a Geographical Method

In order to give a clear depiction of large manufacturing industries in Iraq for 2018, this study was based on industrial data issued by bureau of statistics for some manufacturing indexes. To find the statistical results, factor analysis was employed in this study. Data of factor analysis are characterized by that the observations are not limited to one variable, but each observation consists of several variables. The relationship between variables is measured statistically and expressed numerically. Then, their validity is tested to find whether they have a statistical indication or they result occasionally (Kotler& Dubois, 1994). Factor analysis reduces the size of data (Data Reduction), on the one hand, classifies variables and observations in the field of geographical research, on the other hand. The statistical software package(SPSS)is used in the processes of multivariate analysis, including factor analysis (Stafford, Bodson, & Stafford, 2006). It is well known that factor analysis is not considered a simple topic in statistics, but is an innovative subject (Everitt, 1977). Most researchers emphasize that factor analysis is a statistical method aimed at studying the complex phenomena to explore the factors that influenced them through the analysis of correlation coefficients between variables (Kim & Mueller, 1978). The concept of factor analysis can be defined as one of the branches of multivariate analysis based on a set of hypotheses that seeks to identify the factors underlying the nature of the internal relationships between the variables observed for a particular phenomenon or society. In addition, factor analysis aims at estimating the degree of relative similarity (description of the relationship between the

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elements studied) based on certain, equal characteristics. These elements are categorized in groups so that there is a large amount of similarity between the elements within the same group (Al-Abbasi, 2011).

2. Indexes of Large Manufacturing Industries in Iraq for 2018

Indexes adopted in this analysis were derived from the data issued by the Ministry of Planning, Central Bureau of Statistics, Department of Industrial Statistics, as shown in table (5). Based on the results of analysis, the governorates of Iraq have recorded varying percentages of their average by the measure of variance (). The variance rate of the index was recorded for the variables studied as follows:

• Industrial establishments (56.265%). • The wage of permanent employees (144.765%), permanent workers (157,400%), temporary workers (123,806%), and temporary employees (76,425%). • Commodity production (163.879%) and non-commodity production (171.323%). • Sales of manufacturing products (153.970%). • Supplies of industrial raw materials (222.875%), packaging (199.324%), service (129.933%), and other productions (87,974%).

This result indicates that the indexes of large manufacturing industries in the provinces of Iraq were variant. On the other hand, the highest variation was recorded in the index of packaging supplies with a variation coefficient of (199.324%). Concerning the provinces, Baghdad recorded the highest variation represented by (43.97%). Therefore, the variance coefficients of indexes under study recorded a large variation between the provinces. This is confirmed by that the communality coefficient () of variables under analysis was varied between the provinces of Iraq for 2018.

Table 5: descriptive statistics of manufacturing indexes in Iraq in 2018

Indexes of manufacturing Communality Variance Coefficient of first Average industries coefficient coefficient % element loading Industrial establishments 6.663 0.674 56.265 0.782 Permanent employees 6.686 0.901 144.765 0.906 The wages of permanent 6.662 0.962 157.400 0.895 employees Temporary workers 6.662 0.567 123.806 0.657 The wages of temporary workers 5.387 0.918 163.152 0.949 Unpaid workers 6.715 0.757 76.425 0.276

 The variance coefficient is derived by: the standard deviation value/ the average rate × 100  It refers to the proportion of each variable’s variance.

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Commodity production 6.434 0.872 163.879 0.930 Non-commodity production 6.556 0.932 171.323 0.836 Sales 6.661 0.930 153.970 0.963 Supplies of raw materials 5.412 0.784 222.875 0.717 Supplies of packaging 6.661 0.841 199.324 0.908 Other supplies 6.662 0.859 87.974 0.952 Supplies of service 7.931 0.804 129.933 0.776

Source: Researcher based on the results of SPSS 17.0.

Map (1) shows that the sales index recorded the highest value in coefficient of first element loading (0.963), which was less than (1) and included provinces of (Anbar, Karbala, Wasit, and Salah al-Din), (1-5) provinces of (Nineveh, Diyala, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Muthanna, ThiQar, and Maysan), and finally, (5 and more) provinces of (Kirkuk, Baghdad, Babylon, and Basra).

3. Spatial Distribution Pattern of Large Manufacturing Indexes in Iraq for 2018

To refer to spatial distribution pattern of industry indexes, the method of identifying the first element of factor analysis (Al-Allaq, 2007) was employed in this study. The first element covered (68%) of the total variance in the values of indexes. It included indexes of: industrial establishments (0.78), permanent employees(0.90), the wages of permanent employees (0.89), temporary workers (0.65), the wages of temporary workers (0.94), unpaid workers (0.27), commodity production (0.83), non-commodity production (0.83), and sales (0.96).Therefore, the first element reflects the relationship among the establishments, their employees, the value of production and sales. Table (6) shows the percentages of large manufacturing indicators by provinces for 2018,clarifying that Baghdad, Babylon and Maysan have recorded

Map 1: the value of sales index in large manufacturing industries in Iraqi provinces for 2018

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values above the readings rate of the element with high degrees for all indexes. This is not surprising because they have the highest percentage of industrial establishments in the country, accounting for (15.62%) in Baghdad, while Babylon and Maysan accounted for (10.36%)of the total manufacturing establishments. The other group included the provinces that recorded the lowest rates, namely, Nineveh, Kirkuk, Diyala, Anbar, Karbala, Wasit, Salah al-Din, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Muthana, and Thiqar. While the last group included Basra that three of its indexes recorded lower rates, while other indexes recorded higher rates. Perhaps this is because it is the main port city in Iraq and the economic city of oil, with (5.95%) of large industrial establishments.

Table 6: Percentages of large manufacturing indexes in Iraqi provinces for 2018

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ees

employ

commodity production commodity

-

Provinces of establishments No. employees Permanent of permanent Wages workers Temporary workers of temporary Wages workers Unpaid production Commodity Non Sales supplies Raw materials supplies Packaging supplies Other supplies service The average 6.66 6.686 6.66 6.66 5.38 6.71 6.43 6.55 6.66 5.41 6.66 6.66 7.93

Nineveh 5.58 4.49 2.39 2.73 0.62 4.30 1.06 0.68 1.04 0.22 1.11 5.14 21.17

Kirkuk 4.94 4.78 6.69 0.06 0.04 3.40 6.83 2.16 7.02 7.15 15.17 4.23 6.35

Diyala 9.57 3.32 2.36 12.60 12.02 13.83 1.21 2.82 1.17 0.87 0.40 3.46 5.74

Anbar 1.43 3.33 2.59 0.84 0.24 0.00 0.12 3.62 0.12 0.11 0.36 0.65 0.92

Baghdad 15.62 40.66 41.60 18.28 30.35 8.16 28.81 38.27 32.26 20.06 43.97 19.59 35.21

Babylon 10.36 8.92 6.87 20.49 18.66 15.87 30.37 5.40 24.66 44.81 30.92 16.09 6.10

Karbala 3.03 1.00 0.68 0.53 0.58 5.44 0.52 2.21 0.15 0.38 0.50 1.26 0.64

Wasit 6.69 3.35 2.53 1.86 1.12 1.58 0.58 0.70 0.58 0.18 0.07 3.22 0.99

Salahaddin 1.75 2.78 2.19 0.00 0.00 4.30 0.66 0.17 0.65 0.27 0.87 0.51 0.63

Najaf 4.94 4.44 3.75 27.21 2.12 3.17 1.87 2.70 1.86 1.10 2.10 9.96 4.69

Qadisiyah 8.93 3.34 2.08 1.10 0.54 13.60 1.51 1.87 1.49 0.44 0.23 5.29 8.32

Muthanna 5.74 1.83 0.95 10.20 4.48 11.67 1.12 0.76 1.91 0.57 1.40 6.56 1.95

ThiQar 5.10 4.50 4.93 0.00 0.00 6.12 2.53 3.29 3.07 2.94 0.51 2.44 1.93

Maysan 10.36 3.77 3.02 1.06 1.43 9.29 0.32 4.68 3.42 0.26 0.08 7.09 1.33

Basra 5.90 9.78 17.35 6.98 8.61 0.00 19.01 29.01 20.16 1.82 2.21 14.44 23.00

Conclusion

1. The number of industrial establishments for large manufacturing industries fluctuated between high and low rates from year to year. Perhaps this fluctuation is attributed to the circumstances experienced by the country, especially in Nineveh, Baghdad and Salah al-Din, which in turn affected the number of workers, wages, production, sales and value added. 2. The average wages of workers in large manufacturing industries for 2018 recorded the highest percentage represented by(11.3%), while the percentage of manufacturing was the highest in 2016, reaching(62.2). 3. The private sector acquired the highest rate in terms of number of industrial establishments for large manufacturing industries in 2018 and

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reached (536)industrial establishments with the highest production value (2,483,223) million/dinar, the highest sales value (2,367,301) million/dinar. While the public sector acquired the highest value-added(1,297,302) million/dinars, indicating the role played by it in the country's economy. 4. Baghdad province ranked first in terms of the relative importance of the number of industrial establishments, the number of employees, wages and the value of production, followed by provinces of Babylon and Basra. These three provinces accounted for the highest rates for the variables under study. These rates were as follows: (31%) of the number of establishments, (58.3%) of all workers (permanent and temporary workers, and unpaid workers), (66.4%) of Wages (permanent and temporary), (77.8%) of sales and (77.5%) of production supplies (raw materials, packaging, service, and others). This indicates the industrial importance occupied by these three provinces and thus highlights their effective role in industrial development. 5. There were high correlations among the number of permanent workers, wages, packing and service supplies. In addition to a strong correlation among wages, permanent workers, non-commodity production, service supplies; as well as a correlation between commodity production and commodity supplies. Moreover, a strong correlation was found among non- commodity production, the number of permanent workers, wages and service supplies; besides, a high correlation between packing supplies and permanent workers. However, the remaining variables recorded a moderate to weak correlation. 6. The results of factor analysis revealed two factors that they collectively explained (83%) of the data matrix variance. 7. Spatial distribution pattern of manufacturing indexes indicated that Baghdad and Babylon recorded high values for all indexes compared to other provinces. In addition, Basra recorded low values only in three indexes, but it showed high values for other indexes.

Based on the above results, the researcher suggests the following recommendations:

1. The necessity to direct the attention to the industrial sector, especially the private sector, and to revive the relationship between the different sectors and the mixed sector, which has not played a role according to manufacturing indexes. 2. It is possible to classify Babylon and Basra as industrial poles because their indexes recorded high values and therefore their benefits spread to other regions. This requires a government attention towards this issue in order to save the national industrial situation and turn the country into a productive country instead of its economic stagnation and remaining in the consumer case.

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