Great Powers, Small Wars Deriglazova, Larisa Published by Johns Hopkins University Press Deriglazova, Larisa. Great Powers, Small Wars: Asymmetric Conflict since 1945. Johns Hopkins University Press, 2014. Project MUSE. doi:10.1353/book.60315. https://muse.jhu.edu/. For additional information about this book https://muse.jhu.edu/book/60315 [ Access provided at 2 Oct 2021 17:40 GMT with no institutional affiliation ] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Great Powers, Small Wars This page intentionally left blank Great Powers, Small Wars: ASYMMETRIC CONFLICT SINCE 1945 Larisa Deriglazova Woodrow Wilson Center Press WASHINGTON, D.C. Johns Hopkins University Press BALTIMORE EDITORIAL OFFICES Woodrow Wilson Center Press One Woodrow Wilson Plaza 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20004-3027 Telephone: 202-691-4029 www.wilsoncenter.org ORDER FROM Johns Hopkins University Press Hopkins Fulfillment Services P.O. Box 50370 Baltimore, MD 21211-4370 Telephone: 1-800-537-5487 www.press.jhu.edu/books/ © 2014 by Larisa Deriglazova Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Deriglazova, L. V. (Larisa Valer’evna) Great powers, small wars : asymmetric conflict since 1945 / Larisa Deriglazova. p. cm. ISBN-13: 978-1-4214-1412-6 ISBN-10: 1-4214-1412-0 1. Asymmetric warfare—History—20th century. 2. Asymmetric warfare— History—21st century. 3. Great powers—History, Military—20th century. 4. Great powers—History, Military—21st century. 5. Great Britain— Colonies—History, Military—20th century. 6. Iraq War, 2003–2011. I. Title. U163.D476 2014 355.4’2—dc23 2013042522 The Wilson Center, chartered by Congress as the official memorial to President Woodrow Wilson, is the nation’s key nonpartisan policy forum for tackling global issues through independent research and open dialogue to inform actionable ideas for Congress, the Administration, and the broader policy community. Conclusions or opinions expressed in Center publications and programs are those of the authors and speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center staff, fellows, trustees, advisory groups, or any individuals or organizations that provide financial support to the Center. Please visit us online at www.wilsoncenter.org. Jane Harman, Director, President, and CEO Board of Trustees Thomas R. Nides, Chair Sander R. Gerber, Vice Chair PUBLIC MEMBERS: James H. Billington, Librarian of Congress; G. Wayne Clough, Secretary of the Smithsonian Institution; Arne Duncan, Secretary of Education; David Ferriero, Archivist of the United States; John F. Kerry, Secretary of State; Kathleen Sebelius, Secretary of Health and Human Services. Designated appointee of the president from within the federal government: Fred P. Hochberg, Chairman and President, Export-Import Bank of the United States PRIVATE CITIZEN MEMBERS: Timothy Broas, John T. Casteen III, Charles E. Cobb Jr., Thelma Duggin, Barry S. Jackson, Jane Watson Stetson Wilson National Cabinet Eddie & Sylvia Brown, Melva Bucksbaum & Raymond Learsy, Paul & Rose Carter, Armeane & Mary Choksi, Ambassadors Sue & Chuck Cobb, Lester Crown, Thelma Duggin, Judi Flom, Sander R. Gerber, Ambassador Joseph B. Gildenhorn & Alma Gildenhorn, Harman Family Foundation, Susan Hutchison, Frank F. Islam, Willem Kooyker, Linda B. & Tobia G. Mercuro, Dr. Alexander V. Mirtchev, Wayne Rogers, B. Francis Saul, II, Ginny & L. E. Simmons, Leo Zickler This page intentionally left blank With loving memory of my great-grandparents Elena and Theophilus Pashinskiye, grandparents Antonina and Stepan Onishchuk, and parents Klavdiya and Valery Byankiny, who knew what war is about. This page intentionally left blank Contents LIST OF TABLES xi LIST OF FIGURES xv PREFACE. ASYMMETRIC CONFLICTS—AN EQUATION WITH MANY UNKNOWNS xvii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xxiii CHAPTER 1. ORIGIN AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE ASYMMETRIC CONFLICT CONCEPT 1 Postwar Peace: From Total War to Asymmetric Conflicts 1 Critical Approaches to the Concept of Asymmetric Conflict 12 Defining Asymmetric Conflict 23 Developing an Analytical Model of Asymmetric Conflict 42 CHAPTER 2. IDENTIFYING THE ASYMMETRY FACTOR IN ARMED CONFLICTS 57 Data Sources and Methods of Analysis 58 Identifying Asymmetry in the Structural and Dynamic Characteristics of Armed Conflicts 71 ix CONTENTS Impact of the Asymmetry Factor on Conflicts Involving the Great Powers 88 Conclusions 109 CHAPTER 3. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE BRITISH EMPIRE AND ASYMMETRIC CONFLICTS IN DEPENDENCIES 111 The Dissolution of the British Empire 111 Asymmetric Armed Conflicts Accompanying the Colonies’ Struggle for Independence 128 Factors in the British Political Defeat in Asymmetric Conflicts in Its Colonies 147 Conclusions 174 CHAPTER 4. THE US WAR IN IRAQ, 2003–2011 177 The War’s Objectives and Legitimation of the War’s Cause 179 Course of the War and the Evolution of Strategies 193 The War’s Outcomes 208 Discussion of the War’s Outcome in the United States 232 Conclusions 259 CONCLUSION. ANALYZING ASYMMETRIC CONFLICTS USING THE MODEL 265 APPENDIX. LIST OF ARMED CONFLICTS FROM THE COSIMO DATABASE USED IN THE STUDY 275 NOTES 329 INDEX 367 x List of Tables Table 1.1. Participation of Great Powers in Armed Conflicts with Casualties of at Least 25 People, COSIMO Database, 1945–1999 5 Table 2.1. Share of Asymmetric Conflicts in the UCDP Database, 1946–2006 71 Table 2.2. Share of Asymmetric Conflicts in the COSIMO Database, 1945–1999 73 Table 2.3. Use of Asymmetric Strategies in Armed Conflicts, COSIMO Database, 1945–1999 80 Table 2.4. Use of Multiple Asymmetric Strategies in Armed Conflicts, COSIMO Database, 1945–1999 81 Table 2.5. Results of Struggle in Asymmetric Armed Conflicts, COSIMO Database, 1945–1999 86 Table 2.6. Participation of Different Countries and Nonstate Actors in Armed Conflicts, COSIMO Database, 1945–1999 90 Table 2.7. Use of Asymmetric Strategies in Conflicts Involving the Great Powers, COSIMO Database, 1945–1999 93 Table 2.8. Outcomes of Asymmetric Armed Conflicts Involving the Great Powers, COSIMO Database, 1945–1999 94 Table 2.9. Participation of the Great Powers in Asymmetric Armed Conflicts, COSIMO Database, 1945–1999 97 xi LIST OF TABLES Table 2.10. Participation of the Great Powers on Opposite Sides of Asymmetric Armed Conflicts, COSIMO Database, 1945–1999 99 Table 2.11. Breakdown of Great Power Participation in Asymmetric Armed Conflicts, COSIMO Database, 1945–1999 101 Table 2.12. Behavior of Great Powers in Armed Conflicts, COSIMO Database, 1945–1999 104 Table 3.1. British Army Operations in Dependencies, 1945–1982 131 Table 4.1. Estimated Availability of Essential Services in Iraq, 2008–2011 213 Table 4.2. Global Rankings of the Business Environment in Iraq, 2008–2012 214 Table 4.3. Iraqi Opinion on the Coalition Invasion, 2004–2009 216 Table 4.4. Iraqi Assessment of the Situation in Iraq, 2005–2009 216 Table 4.5. Iraqi Assessment of Personal Situation (General Poll), 2004–2009 217 Table 4.6. Iraqi Assessment of Personal Situation, by Community, March 2008 and February 2009 218 Table 4.7. Iraqi Assessment of Coalition Performance in Iraq, 2005–2009 218 Table 4.8. Iraqi Assessment of Coalition Performance in Iraq, by Community, March 2008 and February 2009 219 Table 4.9. Iraqi Level of Trust in US Occupation Forces, 2003–2009 220 Table 4.10. Iraqi Assessment of Government Control, 2005–2009 220 Table 4.11. Iraqi Level of Confidence in Different Institutions, 2003–2009 222 xii LIST OF TABLES Table 4.12. Iraqi Preferences on Governance (General Poll), 2004–2009 224 Table 4.13. Iraqi Preferences on Governance, by Community, February 2007 and February 2009 225 Table 4.14. Iraq Coalition Military Fatalities by Year, 2003–2012 227 Table 4.15. Approval Ratings of the Bush Administration’s Handling of the Iraq War, by Party Affiliation, April 2008 237 Table 4.16. Opinions on Continuation of War into Next Presidential Administration, by Party Affiliation, April 2008 239 Table 4.17. Opinions on US Military Success in Iraq, by Party Affiliation, August 2010 242 Table 4.18. American Predictions of Outcome after US Troop Withdrawal, December 2011 245 xiii This page intentionally left blank List of Figures Figure 1.1. Factors Determining the Defeat of a Strong Party (Great Power) in an Asymmetric Conflict 52 Figure 1.2. Factors Determining the Victory of a Weak Party in an Asymmetric Conflict 54 Figure 3.1. Military and Nonmilitary Spending by US International Assistance Programs, 1945–1955 (US$ billions) 150 Figure 3.2. Size of the British Armed Forces, 1945–2001 (thousands) 155 Figure 3.3. Military Spending in Britain, 1945–2001 (US$ thousands) 155 Figure 3.4. Ratio of US Dollar to British Pound Sterling with Mint Parity, 1930–1978 158 Figure 3.5. Ratio of US Dollar to British Pound Sterling in Free Circulation, 1917–1999 158 Figure 3.6. Volume of Export-Import Flows between the United States and the United Kingdom, 1936–1970 (US$ millions) 159 Figure 3.7. Volume of Funds Received by the United Kingdom from the United States under Grants and Loans, Taking into Account Repaid Loans, 1945–1970 (US$ millions) 163 xv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 4.1. US Forces Fatalities by Year, 2003–2012 202 Figure 4.2. Losses among Iraqi Civilians, Iraqi Security Forces, and U.S. Military Personnel, 2005–2011 229 Figure 4.3. Changing American Attitudes on Iraq’s Connection to September 11 Terrorist Attacks, 2002–2008 234 Figure 4.4. Changing American Attitudes on the Moral Justification of the Iraq War, 2006–2011 234 Figure 4.5. Changing American Attitudes on the Iraq War and Long-Term US Security, 2003–2007 236 Figure 4.6. Changing American Attitudes on the Iraq War and the War on Terrorism, 2003–2007 236 Figure 4.7. Changing Approval Ratings of the Bush Administration’s Handling of the Iraq War, 2003–2008 237 Figure 4.8. Changing American Attitudes on US Military Success in Iraq, 2006–2010 241 Figure 4.9. Changing American Attitudes on US Safety from Terrorism as a Result of the Iraq War, 2007–2010 241 Figure 4.10.