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Statewide Intercity Bus Study Update KFH GROUP, INC. VERMONT STATEWIDE INTERCITY BUS STUDY UPDATE Final Report January, 2013 Prepared for the: State of Vermont Agency of Transportation 4920 Elm Street, Suite 350 —Bethesda, MD 20814 —(301) 951-8660—FAX (301) 951-0026 Table of Contents Page Executive Summary................................................................................................................ES-1 Implementation Timeline for Vermont Rural Intercity Bus Program.......................ES-4 Budget and Funding.........................................................................................................ES-6 Chapter 1: Background and Policy Context......................................................................... 1-1 Policy Context...................................................................................................................... 1-1 Chapter 2: Inventory of Existing Intercity Passenger Services.......................................... 2-1 Intercity Bus ......................................................................................................................... 2-1 Impacts of the Loss of Rural Intercity Bus Service....................................................... 2-11 Intercity Passenger Rail.................................................................................................... 2-13 Regional Transit Connections ......................................................................................... 2-13 Conclusions........................................................................................................................ 2-15 Chapter 3: Analysis of Intercity Bus Service Needs............................................................ 3-1 Demographic Analysis of Intercity Bus Needs............................................................... 3-1 Analysis of Access to Key Destinations......................................................................... 3-29 Methodology for Assessing Current Linkages ............................................................. 3-29 Findings.............................................................................................................................. 3-30 Analysis of Deficiencies ................................................................................................... 3-35 Public Input on Transit Needs ........................................................................................ 3-36 Summary ............................................................................................................................ 3-38 Chapter 4: Vermont Rural Intercity Consultation Process................................................. 4-1 Consultation Survey........................................................................................................... 4-1 Survey Results ..................................................................................................................... 4-2 Summary .............................................................................................................................. 4-6 Consultation Meeting......................................................................................................... 4-7 Additional Input ............................................................................................................... 4-11 General Conclusions......................................................................................................... 4-12 Table of Contents (continued) Page Chapter 5 – Statewide Service Plan: Routes, Schedules, Costs, and Ridership .............. 5-1 Role of Regional Transit Services as Intercity Bus Feeder Services............................. 5-1 Potential changes to Regional Transit to Address Intercity Connections................... 5-9 Conclusions Regarding the Potential for Enhanced Intercity Connectivity with Regional Transit Services.............................................................................................. 5-15 Potential New Rural Intercity Services.......................................................................... 5-16 Route Performance ........................................................................................................... 5-28 Alternative Strategy: Low-Cost Transit Operators with Intercity Carrier Fare and Demand Levels ....................................................................................................... 5-32 Prioritizing Among Proposed Services.......................................................................... 5-36 Chapter 6: Policy, Program, and Program of Projects ........................................................ 6-1 Key Policy Issues for Vermont.......................................................................................... 6-1 Intercity Program ................................................................................................................ 6-9 Program of Projects........................................................................................................... 6-17 Capital Requirements: Vehicles and Other Capital .................................................... 6-31 Program Summary............................................................................................................ 6-35 Summary.............................................................................................................................6-38 Conclusions........................................................................................................................ 6-44 Appendix A: Examples of the Letters and Blank Surveys Appendix B: Surveyed Intercity Providers Appendix C: List of Consultation Meeting – November 15, 2011 Appendix D: Rural Intercity Transit Consultation Workshop Presentation Appendix E: Regional Destinations Made Feasible for the Introduction of Proposed Rural Intercity Routes Final Report Executive Summary During the development of the 2012, VTrans Public Transit Policy Plan (PTPP) the issue of the decline in Vermont’s intercity bus service was considered. Intercity bus service is defined as fixed-route, fixed-schedule bus service open to the general public, which is typically operated with over-the-road coaches with the capability of carrying baggage or package express. The availability of intercity bus service in Vermont has declined from service at 50 stops in 1998 to six today—with two of those vulnerable to discontinuation. At the same time, there is a Federal Transit Administration (FTA) program to assist rural intercity bus service, the Section 5311(f) program. Each state is required to determine if it has unmet rural intercity bus needs, and if so program 15% of its Section 5311 (Formula Grants for Rural Areas) funding allocation or rural intercity bus service. Any service subsidized with Section 5311(f) funding must make meaningful connections to the national intercity bus network. Funding can be used for operating assistance, capital, planning, and marketing of rural intercity bus services. The federal transportation reauthorization legislation passed in 2005 of the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU) added a new requirement calling for a consultation process before a state could certify that there are no unmet rural intercity needs. As part of the PTPP, Vermont conducted a consultation process that included an inventory of existing services; a demographic analysis of needs for intercity bus service; and an outreach effort that included a survey of providers, regional planning agencies, and a statewide meeting. The PTPP included a white paper, “Intercity Bus Needs Assessment and Policy Options”, that documented this process, identified potential needs for replacement service, and suggested additional analysis. This study, the Vermont Statewide Intercity Bus Study Update, documents that additional analysis. It includes a needs analysis focusing on availability of connections to key out-of-state destinations, an analysis of the role of regional transit services as intercity feeder services, consideration of potential changes to regional transit services to address intercity connections, and potential new rural intercity service options. The Vermont Statewide Intercity Bus Study Update ES-1 Final Report potential new services were prioritized based on their projected ridership and revenue, likely operating costs, and ability to address identified gaps in the network. Additional analysis and planning for these priority routes was included in Chapter 6, which considered issues in state policy, program design and implementation, budget, and schedule. Key Program Recommendations Include: Acknowledgement of Unmet Rural Intercity Needs: In the past VTrans has certified that there are no unmet rural intercity bus needs. Based on the analysis in this study and the consultation process, it is recommended that Vermont not certify that there are no unmet needs, and begin plan implementation using the Section 5311(f) set-aside of Vermont’s overall Section 5311 apportionment, or an FTA-approved equivalent (for example Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement or other federal funds that can be transferred to Section 5311). Implementation as a Grant Program: The program will be run as a separate, new grant program using a grant solicitation, rather than as a contract procurement using a Request for Proposals (RFP). Additional Staff Resources: An additional .5 FTE (Full-Time Equivalent) is recommended
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