Deutsche Bank Anshu Jain Head of Global Markets Member of the Group Executive Committee
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Deutsche Bank Anshu Jain Head of Global Markets Member of the Group Executive Committee Investor Meetings Frankfurt / London, June + July 2007 Deutsche Bank Group: Outstanding profit growth In EUR bn 1st quarter Income before income taxes Net income 8.3 6.1 6.1 3.5 4.0 3.2 2.5 2.8 2.1 1.4 22% 29% 2.6 1.6 2003 2004 2005 2006 1Q2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 1Q2007 Note: 2003-2005 based on U.S. GAAP, 2006 onwards based on IFRS Investor Relations 07/07 · 2 Outperformance against key targets 1st quarter Pre-tax RoE (target definition)(1) Diluted EPS (target definition)(2) In % 1ppt In EUR 40 41 10.24 31 25 6.95 16 4.53 13 3.88 2.31 2.87 35% 20032004 2005 2006 1Q 1Q 20032004 2005 2006 1Q 2006 2007 2007 (1) 2003-2004 underlying; 2005 as per target definition: excludes restructuring activities and substantial gains from industrial holdings; from 2006 as per revised target definition: excludes significant gains (net of related expenses) / charges (2) 2003-2005 reported; from 2006 as per revised target definition: excludes significant gains (net of related expenses) / charges Note: 2003-2005 based on U.S. GAAP, 2006 onwards based on IFRS Investor Relations 07/07 · 3 Delivery to shareholders Dividend per share Cash returned to shareholders In EUR In EUR bn 32% CAGR 4.00 12.9 5.7 2.50 Dividends 1.70 1.50 1.30 7.2 Share retirements 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2002 - 2006 Investor Relations 07/07 · 4 A leading global investment bank … Corporate Banking & Securities revenues 1Q2007, in EUR bn 7.2 Loan products 6.1 (2) 0.3 5.8 5.6 5.5 0.8 5.0 Investment banking 4.1 3.9 3.3 Sales & 5.1 Trading Goldman DB Morgan Citi JPMorgan Merrill Credit UBS Lehman Sachs (1)Stanley (1) Chase Lynch Suisse Brothers(1) Change vs. 1Q2006 In EUR 10% 18% 25% 14% 16% 31% 11% 2% 2% (1) Diverging fiscal year (2) Morgan Stanley CB&S comparable segment reflects investment revenues not included in Sales & Trading / Investment Banking Note: Goldman Sachs excl. revenues from Principal Investments; translation into EUR based on average FX rate of respective reporting period; DB CB&S total revenues include other revenues of EUR (0.1) bn Source: Company data Investor Relations 07/07 · 5 … and a market leader in sales and trading Sales & Trading revenues 1Q2007, in EUR bn 5.9 5.1 4.4 Equity 2.4 1.7 3.9 3.9 1.7 3.3 1.1 3.1 3.1 1.8 2.7 Debt 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 3.5 3.4 2.7 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.4 1.7 1.6 Goldman DB Morgan Merrill Citi UBS JPMorgan Credit Lehman Sachs * Stanley * Lynch Chase Suisse Brothers* Change vs. 1Q2006 In EUR 11% 16% 21% 30% 11% (1)% 13% (1)% 5% * Diverging fiscal year Note: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley excl. revenues from Principal Investments or other investment revenues; translation into EUR based on average FX rate of respective reporting period. Figures may not add up due to rounding differences. Source: Company data Investor Relations 07/07 · 6 Global Markets has shown consistent, stable earnings growth across market cycles … DB rank 6 3 2 4 2 2 2 6 DB 5 Peer average 5 4 4 33 2 in EUR bn 2 11 Sales & Trading revenues, 00 1Q1Q 2Q2Q 3Q3Q 4Q4Q 1Q1Q 2Q2Q 3Q3Q 4Q4Q 1Q1Q 2Q2Q 3Q3Q 4Q4Q 1Q1Q 2Q2Q 3Q3Q 4Q4Q 1Q1Q 2Q2Q 3Q3Q 4Q4Q 1Q1Q 0202 0202 0202 0202 0303 0303 0303 0303 0404 0404 0404 0404 0505 0505 0505 0505 0606 0606 0606 0606 0707 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Equities Falling Rising Credit Spreads widening Spreads tightening Rates Falling Rising Stable FX Variable US $ weakening Variable/weakening Commodities Stable oil prices Oil price volatility Falling Investor Relations 07/07 · 7 ... thanks to a well diversified business portfolio Global Markets revenues, 2006 By Region By Product Prime Equity Asia Pacific Brokerage Prop Americas Structured Germany Equity Credit By Client Cash Equity Commod- Government ities Europe Money Corporates EM (ex Germany) MM & FX Managers Rates Hedge Funds Banks & Insurers Investor Relations 07/07 · 8 Unquestionably, recent market conditions have been relatively benign for sales and trading Tightening credit Rising equity Total industry Sales & Trading revenues spreads markets In EUR bn US IG MSCI World 114 132 174 Prop trading 32% Equity Derivs & Prime 15% Brokerage Cash Equities 2000 2002 2004 2006 2000 2002 2004 2006 Other debt Sustained low Falling Commodities interest rates volatility G7 yields VIX FX Credit & Securitization Rates 2000 2002 2004 2006 2000 2002 2004 2006 2004 2005 2006 Note: Equity derivatives includes convertibles, figures adjusted into EUR for each relevant period Source: Boston Consulting Group Investor Relations 07/07 · 9 Secular trends shaping our industry A revolution in asset management Asset management industry evolution, 2003-2006 CAGR 03-06 60% ETF ~USD 0.5 trillion 50% 40% 30% Migration of beta 20% Migration of alpha Alternative assets Traditional 10% (PE, HF, Real Estate, etc.) products ~USD 6.5 trillion ~USD 35 trillion 0% 0 50 100 150 200 Revenue margin (bps) Note: Bubbles represent size of AuM Source: DB analysis Investor Relations 07/07 · 10 Secular trends shaping our industry The growth of emerging markets Financial markets growth in EM Asia DB EM footprint: comparison to peers has been rapid Financial stock growth (2000-2005) Financial stock as % of GDP (2005) 329% Moscow Warsaw Beijing 91% Shanghai 233% Mexico City Seoul Cairo Hong Kong Lagos Mumbai Bangkok 63% Bogotá Manila Jakarta Singapore 163% Santiago São Paulo Johannesburg Montevideo 28% Buenos Aires EM locations: Leading Investment Bank A 13 Leading Investment Bank B 23 US Europe EM Asia 74 Note: Capital markets financial stock includes equity, debt and government securities; Europe is EU and EM Asia is Emerging Markets Asia (i.e. excludes Japan and Australia/New Zealand) Source: GM Research, McKinsey Investor Relations 07/07 · 11 Secular trends shaping our industry The growth of emerging markets (cont’d): Focus on India “Indian paper livens up derivatives market abroad” The Economic Times, 12 April 2007 Physical footprint and product offering “Reserve Bank of India (RBI) keen to develop derivatives market” Financial Express, 25 April 2007 Delhi “RBI asks banks to devise hedging products for SMEs” Noida Derivatives The Economic Times, 10 April 2007 Gurgaon Kolkata “India celebrates as Mittal swallows Arcelor” The Economic Times, 26 June 2006 Mumbai “Tata Corus makes India a global investor” Asia-Pacific News Agencies, 1 February 2007 “Tata Steel breaks into Fortune 500” Bangalore Chennai Mergers The Economic Times, 2 February 2007 “Hindalco to acquire Novelis for USD 6 bn” Equities Rates FX The Economic Times, 12 February 2007 – Cash Equities – INR IRS, CCS – Swaps – G7 Swaps – Vanilla FX – Listed Derivatives – FX – Hybrid Structures – Structured FX “RBI puts full float of rupee on the fast track” – Flow Derivatives – G Sec / Corporate Bonds Financial Express, 31 October 2006 “Foreign players make a beeline to grab a share of banking pie” Structured credit Loan Syndication Structured Finance The Economic Times, 30 April 2007 “Differentiated bank licences in the pipeline” Reform Recent examples of DB deals: The Economic Times, 25 April 2007 ECM FLAG Tele IPO, part of Reliance Communications (announced Mar 07) “PM promises more banking, financial sector reforms” Firstsource Solutions IPO (Feb 07) The Economic Times, 14 March 2007 DCM ICICI Bank EUR 500 m offering (Mar 07) Investor Relations 07/07 · 12 Secular trends shaping our industry The development of complex asset-liability management solutions for insurers and pension funds Insurance ALM Aggregate pension fund deficit In EUR bn Equities FI 0-10Y FI 10-30Y FI 30Y+ 30% 16% 11% 10 10 20 Liabilities deficit Deficit 90 Assets 100 Deficit in % 2% Deficit 110 30% 250 250 inflation inflation linked hedged inflation 170 hedged 680 680 100 100 580 580 100 50 50 Deficit 110 Liabilities Pre Post Assets 260 260 Other ALM trades: Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities Healthcare securitisation CAT Mortality risk transfer Eurozone Europe FTSE 350 Industry Loss Warranties (ILW) Longevity risk transfer Top 50 Top 50 Notes:Deficit shows aggregate assets minus liabilities Source: Mercer Human Resource Consulting Investor Relations 07/07 · 13 Secular trends shaping our industry Seven-fold derivatives growth over 8 years: DB outpacing market Increased transaction volumes DB derivatives profitability Notional volume (in USD bn) 35% 350 26% CAGR CAGR Equity Equity Credit Credit Rates 50 IR/FX 2003 2004 2005 2006 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Increased market concentration Industry recognition Herfindahl Index (14%) 4% Increase in index over Derivatives House 8% 1998-2004 5% Global Derivatives House of the Year 2006 Best Investment Grade Debt House Increasingly Best Risk Management House Best Debt House- Emerging Markets concentrated market IR FX Credit Equity Note: IR and FX Herfindahl indices are for swaps, Equity is for all OTC products Source: ISDA, BIS, FRB Investor Relations 07/07 · 14 Strategic positioning Global Markets is superbly positioned for stable growth Sales & Trading (debt / equity) revenues Illustrative Equities Prop Credit Prop Proprietary risk Rates Prop Proprietary risk FX Prop Cash Equities Foreign Exchange Market access Market access Government Bonds Corporate Bonds Money Markets Equity Derivatives Intellectual Credit Derivatives Rates Derivatives capital FX Derivatives Intellectual capital Commodity Derivatives Collateralized Debt Obligations Securitized Products Market db Structured Finance Distressed Products Source: Market estimate by Oliver Wyman, company data Investor Relations 07/07 · 15 Strategic positioning We are strongest in large,