Public Security Strategic Assessment

REPUBLIC OF SERBIA MINISTRY OF INTERIOR

PUBLIC SECURITY STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT

PUBLIC VERSION

Belgrade, 2017 PUBLIC SECURITY STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT

Publisher MINISTRY OF INTERIOR OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA Bulevar Mihajla Pupina 2а, 11000 Belgrade, Republic of Serbia website: www.mup.gov.rs, E-mail: [email protected]

For publisher Police General VLADIMIR REBIĆ Police Director

Working Group for Preparation of the Public Security Strategic Assesment and Strategic Plan of Police Working Group Chairman BOGOLJUB ŽIVKOVIĆ Assistant Police Director Working Group Deputy Chairman BRANISLAV TONČIĆ Deputy Head of the Police Director’s Bureau Members of the Working Group ILIJA RACIĆ, SINIŠA MILKOVIĆ, IVAN BRANDIĆ, OLIVERA ARSENOVIĆ, BOJANA NOŽICA, MILJAN ĐOROVIĆ, BOJAN MILOJIČIĆ, BOJAN MARKOVIĆ, DEJAN MILANKOVIĆ, NIKOLA NOVAKOVIĆ, DRAGANA STOJADINOVIĆ, DRAGAN POPADIĆ, VLADIMIR UROŠEVIĆ, SLAVIŠA LAKIĆEVIĆ, DUŠAN MARKOVIĆ, SAŠA ARSENIJEVIĆ, TANJA ŠAJTINAC, IGOR MIKIĆ, MIROLJUB KOLAREVIĆ, DRAGAN MIJATOVIĆ, TANJA ĐORĐEVIĆ Editor Prof. ZORAN ĐURĐEVIĆ, PhD Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies Proofreading: MARJA BRANDIĆ Copyediting: IVANA ĐERMANOVIĆ Computer printset JOVAN PAVLOVIĆ Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies

Circulation 100 copies

Printing of the publication was fiancially supported by the Swedish Government

ISBN 978-86-83397-25-9 Content

CONTENT

I INTRODUCTION 1

II SUMMARY 5

III METHODOLOGY 13

IV STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 19 1. CRIME SITUATION AND TRENDS...... 21 1.1. Total crime volume...... 21 1.2. Organized crime...... 24 1.2.1. Organized criminal groups – situation and tendencies...... 24 1.2.2. Crime areas...... 26 1.3. General crime...... 30 1.3.1. Criminal offences covered by general crime– according to areas...... 32 1.3.1.1. Criminal offences against life and limb...... 32 1.3.1.2. Criminal offences against sexual freedoms...... 34 1.3.1.3. Domestic violence...... 35 1.3.1.4. Criminal offences against property...... 36 1.3.1.5. Drugs...... 41 1.3.1.6. Illegal possession of firearms...... 44 1.3.1.7. Criminal offences against cultural property...... 45 1.3.1.8. Juvenile crime...... 47 1.3.2. General crime to the detriment of vulnerable groups...... 49 1.3.2.1. Criminal acts to the detriment of the minors...... 49 1.4. Economic crime...... 52 1.5. Corruption...... 56 1.6. Cyber crime...... 59 1.6.1. Internet fraud...... 59 1.6.2. Computer data security...... 61 1.6.3. Sexual exploitation of juveniles for pornography on the Internet...... 62

V Public Security Strategic Assesment

1.6.4. Criminal offences against copyrights and other related rights...... 64 1.6.5. Security treat on the Internet...... 64 1.6.6. Теrrorism and violent extremism that leads to terrorism...... 65 1.7. Environmental crime...... 65 2. TERRORISM AND EXTREMISM...... 69 2.1. Теrrorism...... 69 2.2. Еxtremism...... 70 3. PUBLIC PEACE AND ORDER...... 71 3.1. Public assemblies – security threats...... 71 3.2. Sports events – security threats...... 73 3.3. School security...... 74 3.4. Violation of public peace and order...... 75 3.5. Criminal offences against general duties police officers...... 77 4. TRAFFIC SAFETY...... 79 4.1. Traffic accidents and their consequences...... 81 4.2. Structure of casualties in traffic accidents...... 82 4.3. Factors thaut cause traffic accidents...... 84 4.4. Traffic accidents on the state roads of the Republic of Serbia and factors that cause them according to Common Accident Data Set (CADaS)...... 85 4.5. Detected misdemeanors and criminal offences against the road traffic safety...... 86 5. BORDER SAFETY AND FOREIGN NATIONALS...... 87 5.1. Flow of passengers...... 87 5.2. Cross-border crime...... 88 5.3. Irregular migration and smuggling of human beings...... 91 5.4. Foreing nationals...... 93 5.4.1. Criminal offences committed by migrants andto the detriment of the migrants...... 93 6. ADMINISTRATIVE AFFAIRS...... 95 6.1.Readmission...... 95 6.2. Registration of residence of the persons from the region of Kosovo and Metohija with the aim of applying for/getting a passport...... 97 6.3. Legally invisible persons...... 98 6.4. Third country nationals and stateless persons...... 99 6.5. Lawful possession of weapon by citizens...... 99

VI Content

V STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT 101 1. ORGANIZED CRIME...... 104 2. SUPRESSION OF THE PRODUCTION AND SMUGGLING OF DRUGS WITH A PARTICULAR FOCUS ON MARIJUANA AND SYNTHETIC DRUG...... 106 2.1. Summary of the priority...... 106 2.2. Forecasting trends in relation to marijuana...... 107 2.3. Forecasting trends in relation to synthetic drugs...... 108 2.4. Recommendations...... 108 2.4.1. Improvement of normative framework and practical work...... 108 2.4.2. Strengthening of institutional and professional capacities...... 108 2.4.3. Development of operational procedures...... 109 2.4.4. Improving prevention...... 109 2.4.5. Improving national, regional and international cooperation...... 109 3. SUPRESSION OF CORRPUTION...... 110 3.1. Summary of the priority...... 110 3.2. Forecasting trends in relation to corruption...... 110 3.3. Recommendations...... 111 3.3.1. Improvement of normative framework and practical work...... 111 3.3.2. Improvement of institutional and professional capacities...... 111 3.3.3. Development of operational procedures...... 111 3.3.4. Improving prevention...... 112 3.3.5. Improving national, regional and international cooperation...... 112 4. FIGHT AGAINST MISUSE OF INFORMATION-COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY...... 113 4.1. Summary of the priority...... 113 4.2. Forecasting trends in relation to the Internet fraud (online scam) ...... 115 4.3. Forecasting trends in relation to criminal offences against computer data safety...... 116 4.4. Forecasting trends in relation to sexual exploitation of the minors for pornographic purposes on the Internet...... 116 4.5. Forecasting trends in relation to endangering security ...... 117 4.6. Forecasting trends in relation to terrorism and violent extremism that leads to terrorism...... 117 4.7. Recommendations ...... 118 4.7.1. Improvement of normative framework and practical work...... 118

VII Public Security Strategic Assesment

4.7.2. Strengthening of institutional and professional capacities...... 118 4.7.3. Development of operational procedures...... 118 4.7.4. Improving prevention...... 118 4.7.5. Improving national, regional and international cooperation...... 119 5. FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM AND VIOLENT EXTREMISM THAT LEADS TO TERRORISM ...... 120 5.1. Summary of the priority...... 120 5.2. Forecasting trends...... 120 5.3. Recommendations ...... 121 5.3.1. Improvement of normative framework and practical work...... 121 5.3.2. Strengthening of institutional and professional capacities...... 121 5.3.3. Development of operational procedures...... 122 5.3.4. Improving prevention...... 122 5.3.5. Improving national, regional and international cooperation...... 122 6. IMPROVING PUBLIC PEACE AND ORDER BY CONFRONTING VIOLENCE WITH PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO VIOLENCE AT SPORTING EVENTS, SCHOOLS AND PUBLIC PLACES ...... 123 6.1. Summary of the priority...... 123 6.2. Forecasting parameters and certain aspects that exert influence on the public peace and order situation...... 124 6.3. Recommendations...... 125 6.3.1. Improvement of normative framework and practical work...... 125 6.3.2. Strengthening of institutional and professional capacities...... 126 6.3.3. Development of operational procedures...... 126 6.3.4. Improving prevention...... 127 6.3.5. Improving national, regional and international cooperation...... 128 7. IMPROVEMENT OF THE TRAFFIC SAFETY ON THE STATE ROADS INCLUDING THE STATE ROADS PASSING THROUGH SETTLEMENTS ...... 129 7.1. Summary of the priority ...... 129 7.2. Forecasting trends in relation to the traffic safety on the state roads ...... 129 7.3. Recommendations ...... 130 7.3.1. Improvement of normative framework and practical work ...... 130 7.3.2. Strengthening of institutional and professional capacities...... 130 7.3.3. Development of operational procedures...... 130 7.3.4. Improving prevention...... 131 7.3.5. Improving national, regional and international cooperation...... 131

VIII Content

8. IRREGULAR MIGRATION AND HUMAN SMUGGLING ...... 132 8.1. Summary of the priority...... 132 8.2. Forecasting trends in relation to irregular migration...... 133 8.3. Forecasting trends in relation to human smuggling...... 134 8.4. Recommendations ...... 134 8.4.1. Improvement of normative framework and practical work...... 134 8.4.2. Strengthening of institutional and professional capacities...... 134 8.4.3. Development of operational procedures...... 135 8.4.4. Improving prevention...... 135 8.4.5. Improving national, regional and international cooperation...... 135

LETTER OF SUPPORT BY THE MINISTER

Ministry of Interior of the Republic of Serbia, aware of the significance of the Police preventive work and its approaching citizens with the aim of enhancing their safety, for the first time developed a Strategic Public Safety Assessment. This document, which is in front of you, is a result of a dedicated work of the General Police Directorate towards making conditions for a new, strategic approach in countering current safety challenges and is one of significant indicators of its eagerness to provide even higher efficiency in work. Strategic Public Safety Assessment, which is for the first time developed in our country, is based on priorities of the Government of the Republic of Serbia in a part pertaining to the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Interior. We expect that its application will provide for new experiences that will contribute to the improvement of legal framework, institutions development, strengthening of expert capacities and urging regional and international cooperation in the area of preventive and repressive acting in the fight against all forms of endangering safety. I would like to express gratitude to the Republic Public Prosecutor’s Office, as well, which together with the General Police Directorate had an active role in the development of this strategic assessment, which represents another confirmation of a good joint work and a new way of connecting state institutions. One of the priorities of the Ministry of Interior is bringing the Police closer to the citizens and a better mutual cooperation for the improvement of safety. This is exactly one of the steps in introducing the police-intelligence model, which represented one of the most modern methods of governing and managing police affairs, which is implemented in many European police agencies and the basis of which is, among other things, found in the assessment of key strategic safety priorities. Development and the implementation of the Strategic Public Safety Assessment will provide a significant contribution within European Integration processes and especially in the negotiations within the Chapter 24 and thus additionally confirm that Serbian Police is a ready and reliable partner to police agencies of the European Union. Ministry of Interior will make an effort to provide all the necessary conditions so that the Police in the next period could accomplish its goals envisaged in this Assessment and thus provide a better community safety, even stronger trust of citizens, as well as respect for values based on joint goals, experience exchange and strengthening partnership in the framework of the accession of our country to the European Union. On behalf of the Ministry of Interior and on my personal behalf I would like to express gratitude to the General Police Directorate and the members of the Working Group, which engaged representatives of the Sector for Analysis, Telecommunication and Information Technologies and the Sector for International Cooperation, European Affairs and Planning, in a devoted work on this strategic document. Within the program “Support to Development Capacities of Strategic Management and European Integrations in the Ministry of Interior“, significant expert and financial support was provided by the Swedish International Development and Cooperation Agency (SIDA) and implementation partner IMG, which I also appreciate very much, as well as Criminal Police Academy and domestic and foreign experts, who provided significant contributions in the development of the first Strategic Public Safety Assessment.

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND MINISTER OF INTERIOR

dr Nebojša Stefanović

Crime in all its forms and manifestations, and particularly organized crime, terrorism, offences against public peace and order, traffic accidents causing casualties and material damage, in addition to various forms of border security threats, including irregular migration, all of them together pose threats that put us all equally in danger. These security threats manifest themselves at full-strength, considering their frequency, danger they pose to the nation and, in particular, facts that they are the result of complex impacts and that they are easily adaptable to life conditions. This Public Security Strategic Assessment has been developed by the General Police Directorate for the first time and it demonstrates an expression of a completely new approach to planning and carrying out police duties. Its final goals are development and improvement of the citizens’ security. Citizens are entitled to expect a decisive and adequate response to threats arising from contemporary forms of jeopardizing public security by legally recognized freedoms and rights. In that regard, it is an obligation of all of us to move on and deploy all required resources in the comprehensive chain- starting with knowledge, and continuing through analysis and police operation to criminal prosecution and the final decision/ judgment in a legal proceeding. In the event that we fail to ensure such joint response, we risk the citizens’ trust and foundations of the democracy itself. The challenge is huge, since the contemporary forms of jeopardizing public security have been constantly changing, especially due to accelerated development of information technology and means of communication. The process of establishing and maintaining stable security environment is a task which cannot be accomplished without decisive cooperation and joint efforts of all competent public authorities, in particular the police and prosecutor’s office, which are constantly on the front lines of defense against security threats and dangers. This Public Security Strategic Assessment is a demonstration of utter dedication and common responsibility of the police and prosecutor’s office towards both the citizens and the state and a clear confirmation of their readiness to tackle the challenges imposed by contemporary forms of threats to public security. The present Public Security Strategic Assessment will be a step forward in terms of development of cooperation between the police and prosecutor’s office, who are mostly exposed to public opinion and whose work and cooperation are subject to assessments and evaluations by professional public and citizens. The best indicator of this document’s efficiency will be the level of protection of the citizens and the confidence they have in the authorities, as well as their trust that the police and prosecutor’s office have taken all measures, as realistic as possible, to enable citizens to exercise their right to protection against security threats. This strategic document is intended to provide contribution to even stronger development of the Serbian society by enhancing its institutional, professional and operational capacities for efficient fight against all forms of public security threats and implementation of European standards and practice. We hereby thank Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA), implementing partner IMG and experts for their professional and financial support provided within the Project „Support to Strategic Management and EU Integration Capacity Development of the Serbian Ministry of Interior“. We extend our special gratitude to the members of the General Police Directorate Task Force, including the members of the Sector for Analytics, Telecommunication and Information Technology and the Sector for International Cooperation, EU Affairs and Planning of the Ministry of Interior for their persistence and professionalism presented in the course of development of the first Public Security Strategic Assessment along with the Analytics Department of the Sector for Analytics, Telecommunication and Information Technology and the Academy of Criminalistics and Police Studies for their expert assistance.

REPUBLIC POLICE DIRECTOR PUBLIC PROSECUTOR Police General

Zagorka Dolovac Vladimir Rebić

ABBREVIATIONS

BIA Security Information Agency BYOD Bring Your Own Device VBA Military Security Agency VoIP Voice over IP – Voice over Internet Protocol CaaS Crimeware as a Service ЈP Public Enterprise ЕUROPOL European Police Service ЕU European Union INTERPOL International Criminal Police Organization IKT Information- Communication Technology ISIS Islamic State of Iraq and Syria IOT Internet of Things FRONTEX European Border and Coast Guard Agency (former European Agency for the Management of Operational Cooperation at the External Borders of the Member States of the European Union) МUP Ministry of Interior ОKG Organized criminal groups ОЕBS Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe POM Intelligence led policing PU Police directorates PESTEL Analysis of the macro-environmental factors that have an impact on an organization (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Legal) P2P Peer to Peer networks SOCTA Serious and Organized Crime Threat Assessment SELEC Southeast European Law Enforcement Center TISPOL European Traffic Police Network UKP Criminal Police Directorate UNHCR Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

PUBLIC SECURITY STRATEGIC ASSESMENT

INTRODUCTIONI

POLICE DIRECTORATE

Introduction

ith the aim of ensuring pro- coherent set of activities of all police ser- tection of fundamental hu- vice worldwide. man rights and freedoms Efficient enforcement of law and high Wguaranteed by the Constitution and leg- level of protection of fundamental hu- islation of the Republic of Serbia, with man rights and freedoms, in addition to respect to the principles of modern, ef- personal and property safety, of the citi- ficient, effective, democratic, accounta- zens of Serbia make an underlying base ble and highly professional police and in of the objectives of police work. One compliance with the confidence vested of the main premises upon which their by the citizens of the Republic of Serbia fulfillment depends is a strategic ap- and their expectation to live in a safe en- proach to current and potential security vironment, the General Police Directo- threats and challenges. Development of rate has developed its first Public Secu- the Public Security Strategic Assessment rity Strategic Assessment that will serve and adoption of the Police Strategic Plan as a basis for further elaboration of the are reflections of such approach. Police Strategic Plan. The Public Security Strategic Assessment By adoption of the EU standards defined defines priorities in police work in the under negotiating Chapters 23 (Judi- course of 2017–2021. These are based ciary reform and fundamental rights) on statutory regulations, strategic docu- and 24 (Justice, freedom and security) ments of the Ministry and other sectors of the EU accession proces, pertaining where the Ministry is carrying out cer- to a full commitment to take respect tain activities, professional and scientific for fundamental human rights, better sources, along with priorities defined in enforcement of legal instruments and Republic of Serbia Government Work better inter-agency and inter-sectoral Program, with full and complete consid- approach to security, the General Police eration of the strategic documents of the Directorate has become aware of new EU (Europol’s annual EU Terrorism Sit- security challenges and a need to take uation and Trend Report – TE-SAT, Se- joint activities aimed at improvement rious and Organized Crime Threat As- of internal and external security. Secu- sessment – SOCTA, Internet Organized rity of Europe and security of the world Crime Threat Assessment – IOCTA), are interconnected and interdependent including priorities set forth in the Eu- categories and, therefore, a response to ropean Agenda on Security 2015–2020. the most severe forms of security threats The Public Security Strategic Assess- calls for a common, comprehensive and ment provides an overview of situation and trends in the fields related to pub-

3 Public Security Strategic Assesment

lic security that are under the jurisdic- Development of the present Public Se- tion of the General Police Directorate. It curity Strategic Assessment involved a identifies key security threats and risks, participatory approach of all stakehold- determines strategic security priorities ers i.e. joint work and approval of or- in policing for next five years and for ganizational units of the General Police each of the priorities provides forecasts Directorate, Analytics Department of of trends and recommendations per- the Sector for Analytics, Telecommu- taining to improvement of normative nication and Information Technology, frame in policy making and practical Department for Strategic Management work, strengthening of institutional and and Development, Department for EU professional capacities, development of Affairs of the Sector for International operational procedures and promotion Cooperation, EU Affairs and Planning of prevention and cooperation on na- of the Ministry of Interior of the Repub- tional, regional and international level. lic of Serbia, Republic Public Prosecu- This Public Security Strategic Assess- tor’s Office, Security Information Agen- ment has been developed for the first cy, Military Security Agency, experts time and it is a key criminal-intelligence from the Academy of Criminalistics and product within the intelligence led po- Police Studies and Faculty of Organiza- licing model (POM) which is expect- tional Sciences- University of Belgrade, ed to be established. Its evaluation will along with other foreign experts. be carried out on annual level, during In order to ensure sustainability of this adoption of the Police Strategic Plan. Public Security Strategic Assessment By providing an overview of the cur- and the Police Strategic Plan and fulfill- rent and long-term public security is- ment of their purpose, it is necessary to sues, the Strategic Assessment makes a establish a special organizational unit foundation for adoption of the Police within the General Police Directorate- Strategic Plan, along with operational ranging from strategic to operational assessments and plans of regional po- level, assigned with a permanent task to lice directorates. It is also a landmark/ monitor implementation of the strategic point of reference that helps orienting assessment and operational assessments, and directing analytical, intelligence and their review and implementation of the operational aspects of policing towards strategic plan and operational plans. key security threats and challenges, i.e. . leadership and management on all levels of the police organization through strategic and operational groups within the intelligence led policing model.

4 PUBLIC SECURITY STRATEGIC ASSESMENT

SUMMARYII

POLICE DIRECTORATE

Summary

he present Public Security Stra- The strategic priorities are equally im- tegic Assessment is composed of portant to the General Police Directo- two sections. First section com- rate and the Ministry of Interior and Tprises a strategic analysis which demon- they received equal attention. Other ar- strates: current situation and trends of eas shown in the strategic analysis will crime (total crime volume, organized be covered in compliance with opera- crime, general crime, economic crime, tional assessments of the public security corruption, cyber crime and environ- and operational plans of police that will mental crime), terrorism and extremism, be developed and adopted by police di- public peace and order ( public assembly, rectorates on the basis of actual security sports events, security in schools, disor- issues in the particular area. The priori- derly conduct and breach of the peace, ties are subject to changes in conform- criminal offences against general duties ity with current security tendencies and, police officers), traffic safety (traffic acci- therefore, will be reviewed during adop- dents and their consequences, structure tion of strategic and operational plans. of casualties, factors causing traffic ac- The Public Security Strategic Assess- cidents, traffic accidents on state roads, ment elaborates eight priorities. Each of misdemeanors and criminal offences them comprises three segments: sum- against traffic safety), border security mary, forecasts of trends and recom- (cross border crime, transfer of passen- mendations. Summary indicates a level gers in international traffic, irregular of danger, manifestations and forms of migration, smuggling of human beings, each priority area. Forecasts of trends foreign nationals) and administrative af- indicate further, potential directions fairs (readmission and weapons in legal and tendencies in development of secu- possession of citizens). The remaining rity priorities while recommendations section comprises the public security define potential (widest) solutions for strategic assessment which, on the ba- more efficient suppression of priority se- sis of a strategic analysis defines securi- curity problems and improvement of the ty priorities in policing, together with a actual situation. summary of each of them respectively, forecasts of trends and recommendations i.e. solutions that will contribute to more efficient work.

7 Public Security Strategic Assesment

ORGANIZED CRIME

It poses one of the biggest threats to security and therefore, its efficient suppression requires a strategic approach. With that regard, the first national Se- rious and Organized Crime Threat Assessment (SOCTA) of the Ministry of Interior was released in December 2015. Topics related to organized crime, covered by strategic analysis and assessment, are briefly presented herewith as extracts from the national SOCTA.

SUPRESSION OF THE PRODUCTION AND SMUGGLING OF NARCOTIC DRUGS WITH A PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON MARIJUANA AND SYNTHETIC DRUGS.

Production and smuggling of narcotic drugs are the most prevalent and profitable forms of crime in Serbia, which is a transit country in terms of smuggling but also a country where marijuana and certain types of synthetic drugs are produced. Availability of marijuana is on the rise owing to the increase of its production in natural and artificial conditions and due to the fact that Serbia is located on the Central Balkan route for marijuana smuggling. Due to its high demand on the market and high profit, it is expected that the number of the criminal groups and persons of interest (individuals carrying out criminal activities) dealing with production and smuggling of marijuana will increase. Giv- en the trend of intensive emergence of new psychoactive controlled substances in the EU member states, we expect to have an increased emergence of the new synthetic drugs in the Republic of Serbia

SUPPRESSION OF CORRUPTION

Suppression of corruption is high on the priority list of the Republic of Serbia, owing to raised awareness and political readiness to do away with corruption as much as possible and make a significant progress in the fight against such phenomenon, with respect of democratic values and rule of law and protection of fundamental human rights and freedoms. With that regard, it poses one of the priorities in the work of the Ministry of Interior. The Republic of Serbia National Anti-Corruption Strategy for the period 2013- 2018, along with its accompanying Action Plan, provide guidelines to the Ministry of Interior pertaining to further implementation of measures and activities aimed at prevention and suppression of all types of corruption and particularly in the areas that the Strategy recognizes as the priorities: political activities, public finance, privatization and public-private partnership, judiciary, police/ law enforcement, spatial planning and construction, health, education and sports and media.

8 Summary

FIGHT AGAINST MISUSE OF INFORMATION COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES ON THE TERRITORY OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA

Along with the tendency of the fast development of the information- commu- nication technologies (ICTs) increases the number of the criminal offences where ICTs are misused and which pertain to safety of computer data, sexual abuse and exploitation of minors and children for pornographic purposes, In- ternet frauds (online scams), unauthorized use of copyrights and other related rights, endangering safety, terrorism and violent extremism leading to terrorism. Perpetrators of these criminal offences will continue to use any available opportunity to hamper the progress of the state authorities in their detection using Internet services that police will find difficult to use to obtain more information about their identity.

FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM AND VIOLENT EXTREMISM LEADING TO TERRORISM

A number of serial terrorist attacks in certain European cities, along with an expansion of terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa, make the danger of terrorism spreading to the territory of the Balkans realistic. Public fears about terrorism have risen considerably, especially bearing in mind that the perpetrators of the latest terrorist attacks committed in Europe intended to cause as more casualties as possible, using new modi operandi and committing their attacks in the places gathering a number of people. Danger posed by terrorism is conditioned by presence of radical Islamism in Serbia and neighboring countries and ethnically motivated violent extremism leading to terrorism, as well as eventual presence of clandestine terrorist cells among the irregular migrants. In addition, there are numerous different potential security risks and threats. Fight against terrorism and extremism leading to terrorism will require implementation of a wide-ranging set of measures, starting with fulfillment of strategic premises- in terms of adoption of the Strategy for prevention and fight against terrorism and improvement of the system for fight against financing of terrorism in the Republic of Serbia, followed by the enhancement of operational, professional and material capacities of the Service for fight against terrorism and extremism of the Criminal Police Directorate, including preventive activities focused on raising awareness of the citizens, particularly youngsters, in order to ensure better understanding of terror threats, and, finally, improve cooperation at the national and international levels.

9 Public Security Strategic Assesment

IMPROVEMENT OF THE PUBLIC PEACE AND ORDER BY GRAPPLING WITH THE VIOLENCE, WITH A PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE VIOLENCE AT SPORTING EVENTS, IN SCHOOLS AND IN PUBLIC PLACES

Maintenance of the stable public peace and order is based on the efficient police work on regular, daily basis, balanced engagement of police in view of time and spatial deployment in public places and security protection of citizens and property, with respect of security priorities and needs of citizens and local communities. Security risks that might endanger stable public peace and order are emergence and presence of physical and other types of violence in public places, public gatherings, sporting events and school areas. In that regard, police will intensify activities in order to prevent violence in public places, especially aimed at prevention of violation of the law committed by individuals under the influence of psychoactive substances and alcohol, as well as to ensure security protection of the pupils and school areas. Priorities in the police work will include the following: development of the ‘’community policing’’ concept and tendency to involve other, relevant partners and stakeholders in implementation of the security prevention; support to wider social activities aimed at improvement of human and minority rights and strengthening of tolerance; support to police planning processes and decision making primarily within the intelligence led policing model along with full enforcement of the Law on private security, so that in the forthcoming period the private security sector could become a partner to police in protection of the security of citizens and property and maintenance of the stable peace and order. Having all the aforementioned in mind, it will be insisted on continuous training of the police members and permanent improvement of police material- technical equipment in order to strengthen police capacities to ensure efficient maintenance of public peace and order and with intention to prevent and control all security risks and threats jeopardizing public peace and order together with other social stakeholders, citizens and community.

10 Summary

IMPROVEMENT OF THE TRAFFIC SAFETY ON THE STATE ROADS INCLUDING THE STATE ROADS PASSING THROUGH THE SETTLEMENTS

Endangering road traffic safety leads to immense human and material loss. This area is under the twofold influence. On the one side, increased number of traffic participants on the state roads, which can be expected in the forthcoming period, increases possibilities for occurrence of traffic accidence. On the other hand, technological progress, modern road infrastructure and creation of adequate legal environment (primarily through alignment with the EU acquis communautaire and adoption of good practice) can have a positive impact on the traffic safety on the state roads. Among other factors contributing to the improvement of the traffic safety on the state roads are strengthening HR and material capacities and introduction of new modalities in the traffic police work.

IRREGULAR MIGRATION AND HUMAN SMUGGLING

Irregular migration and human smuggling are set on the priority list due to their significant impact on internal security. Since 2015 the number of irregular migrants has drastically increased and there is a number of migrants transiting and staying in the Republic of Serbia whose identity cannot be determined. They pose a particular risk since they come from the countries with prevalent radical, religious and terrorist groups. Migration wave from Africa and Asia in 2015 and 2016 led to high demand for services provided by human smugglers. Criminal groups and individuals easily adapted to the ‘’market’’ demands and oriented their activities on human smuggling in order to earn more financial gain. According to Europol, more than 90% of the migrants who entered Europe had used services of the human smugglers. Depending on the orientation of the EU member states policies, along with other countries and international organizations, will be defined the intensity of the further migration pressure.

A set of recommendations has been de- • Improving institutional and profes- fined for each of those eight identified sional capacities; strategic priorities and they are divided • Development of operational procedures; in the following groups: • Promotion of prevention and • Improvement of normative frame and practical work; • Promotion of national, regional and international cooperation.

11 Public Security Strategic Assesment

Improvement of normative framework and practical work

Consideration of strategic and normative framework necessary for improvement of the considered area, implementation of the EU acquis communautaire into the national legislation and participation in the national, regional and international working groups and competent bodies.

Improving institutional and professional capacities

Primarily pertains to professional development and training of human resources, improvement of material resources and technical equipment of new specialized organizational units or adjustment of the existing ones.

Development of operational procedures

Comprises improvement of practice and methodology of work in considered strategic area on the national level and improvement and development of operational plans in compliance with the best experience gained by European police forces.

Improving prevention

Considers cooperation with stakeholders and development of community policing, through improvement of integrity plans and development of projects focused on preventive actions, establishment of efficient mechanisms of information exchange, organization of promotions and proactive information to citizens.

Improving national, regional and international cooperation

Pertains to participation in relevant European and international bodies and organizations, improvement of bilateral and international cooperation, organization of professional and study visits with the aim of improving work and exchange of experience and participation in joint operations carried out on regional and international level.

12 PUBLIC SECURITY STRATEGIC ASSESMENT

METHODOLOGYIII

POLICE DIRECTORATE

Methodology

ethodological frame of the fects Analysis), model CIRAM (Com- Public Security Strategic As- mon Integrated Risk Analysis Model), sessment is based on primary problem tree analysis, gap analysis and Mand secondary sources of information matrix portfolio, and even general scien- and application of contemporary meth- tific methods: statistical method, com- ods and techniques of strategic analysis parative methods, analytical description, and assessments of risks and threats. The induction, deduction, synthesis, gener- analysis comprised quality and quanti- alization etc. These methods and tech- ty information referring to period from niques enabled multiplied verification of 2011 to 2015 and the first ten month of findings obtained from different sources 2016 including the information obtained and comparison according to different from internal and external sources- op- criteria. The final goal was to treat all erational information and intelligence, strategic priorities and recommenda- criminal/ misdemeanor charges, analy- tions uniformly. Therefore, a selection of sis, information and reports developed strategic priorities and their uniformed by Analytics Department of the Sector analysis are crucial for development of for Analytics, Telecommunication and quality and comprehensive recommen- Information Technology of the MOI, dations and the General Police Directo- data available to judiciary and other rate Strategic Plan. state authorities, government bodies, In this document, analysis and selection civil society organizations, institutes of of strategic priorities of public security science, education and research, private in the Republic of Serbia are based on sector. All information and data used for group decision by applying expert as- the purpose of this document are based sessment model recommended by the on objectively provable sources and are members of the Working Group on the subject to a continuous monitoring and basis of elaborated strategic analysis of periodical updating including statistical public security. Expert assessments serve data from the Single Information System to ensure quantity ranking by applying of the Ministry of Interior (MOI). scoring models (scoring data with pre- In the course of development of the Pub- dictive models) and for final selection of lic Security Strategic Assessment were strategic priorities. used different methods and techniques The underlying idea of application of the of strategic analysis and assessments methodological frame is improvement of risks and threats: SWOT analysis, of efficiency and effectiveness of the PESTEL analysis, stakeholder analysis, group (collaborative) decision making– methods FMEA (Failure Mode and Ef- by removal of common communication

15 Public Security Strategic Assesment

barriers, provision of techniques for their score is zero (0), the total score will structured analysis of decision making be zero (0). Sectoral criteria are relevant process and systematic determination for activities that fall under the jurisdic- of manner, timeframe and content of tion of the Ministry and, usually, are in a discussion in order to reach more high mutual interconnection (e.g. trust of citi- quality decisions. zens and social danger). Optional criteria Scoring models are numerical methods do not have to be relevant for all consid- used for ranking and selection of stra- ered options and are mainly connected to tegic options. These models are under- specific activities of certain lines of police standable, easy to use, flexible and sim- work (criminal police, public order and ple. The initial step in their application peace, traffic police, etc.). is creation of a list of relevant criteria for The applied approach required a signif- selection of priorities. Afterwards, stra- icant participation of decision- makers, tegic options are rated per each criteri- especially in terms of definition of cri- on respectively, usually on a numerical teria and decision making process and scale. The results are multiplied with a that was accomplished by harmonized corresponding weighting coefficient and composition of the working group and then added together to calculate a rel- manner of decision making. All deci- ative value of the option. The obtained sions were reached by general agreement value serves as a basis for selection of (consensus) on the basis of the present- strategic priorities. ed results of the strategic analysis and In the general, scoring model may use numerical values of considered strategic three categories of criteria: strategic, options. sectoral and optional. Strategic criteria After elaboration of the final version of mainly proceed from strategic docu- the Strategic Assessment, it was submit- ments of the Government and the Min- ted to competent organizational units istry and they have a strong impact on and foreign partners for approval. the considered option. In the event that

16 Methodology

Picture 1 ‒ Police Directorates

PUBLIC SECURITY STRATEGIC ASSESMENT

STRATEGICIV ANALYSIS

POLICE DIRECTORATE

1. CRIME SITUATION AND TRENDSStrategic Analysis

1.1. Total crime volume

uring the period 2011- 2015 offences. Criminal offences classified on the territory of the Republic as economic crime make up about 8%, of Serbia was reported 514.087 while criminal offences pertaining to cy- Dcriminal offences in total or almost ber crime and environmental crime re- 103.000 criminal offences at annual level. spectively make up less than 1%. Within The highest crime rate was recorded each of these, respective forms of crime in 2013 – there were 113.770 criminal have been observed certain forms of or- offences which accounted for 22% of ganized crime. the crime total, and the lowest in 2015 Geographic distribution of the over- – there were 98.683 criminal offences all crime indicates that the majority of which accounted for 19, 2% of the crime criminal offences were committed in total. In 2015 the overall index crime large cities’: area under the jurisdiction rate declined by 2, 6% when compared of the City of Belgrade Police Directo- to 2011 data i.e. by 13, 2% when com- rate (30%), Novi Sad Police Directorate pared to 2013 data. (12%) and Niš Police Directorate (5%). During the period 2011- 2015 the over- On the territory of the above mentioned all number of criminal offences was 1,431 cities, which comprise one third of the per 100,000 inhabitants. According to the total population of the Republic of Ser- annual estimates, in 2011 the number of bia, is committed almost half of the total recorded criminal offences was 1,410 per crime volume. 100,000 inhabitants, in 2012 the number During the period January- October of of recorded criminal offences was 1,352, 2016 were reported 76,271 criminal of- in 2013 the number of recorded criminal fences that is 5, 6% less than in the same offences was 1,583, in 2014 the number of period of 2015 when the number of re- recorded criminal offences was 1,435, and corded criminal offences was 80.841. In in 2015 the number of recorded criminal relation to the prevailing forms of crime offences was 1,373. and geographical distribution, tenden- With reference to the total crime vol- cies are on the same level. ume on the territory of the Republic Crime forms that we have been facing of Serbia criminal offences classified as with in recent years show a high level of general crime are the most prevalent adaptability to current social trends, in and account for almost 90% of criminal addition to changes on wider, regional

21 Public Security Strategic Assesment

and international level. Impacts origi- manifestations, in addition to various nating from wars waged in the first half forms of cyber crime which develops in of the 90s (XX century) feature certain parallel with fast development of infor- types of crime that occurred in that pe- mation-communication technologies riod of time. Certain segments of crime and whose forms of manifestation and are characterized by numerous mani- consequences are currently immense. festations, unscrupulousness, cruelness Dynamic flows of life and those present and drastic consequences. Some of the in other social processes have led to cre- characteristics are intersection and ination of new, socially dangerous types of terconnection between different crime behavior which primarily requires time- forms, and mutual relations between ly reaction of criminal legislation but perpetrators, increasingly present crime also calls for development of new mod- in urban areas that strongly affects the els of policing that can respond to chal- overall dynamics, complexity and new lenges posed by contemporary crime.

Picture 2 ‒ Overall number of criminal offences per regional police directorates

22 Strategic Analysis

Picture 3 ‒ Total crime volume in the Republic of Serbia in 2011‒2015.

23 Public Security Strategic Assesment

1.2. Organized crime

n 2015 the Ministry of Interior of and serious crime, development of the the Republic of Serbia developed strategic assessment is important from and released a national Serious and internal point of view, as well since it is IOrganized Crime Threat Assessment the first official national assessment of (SOCTA), a document of strategic im- that kind. Furthermore, it considers and portance for accession to the European assesses future development of all are- Union. Development of the Assessment as of organized and serious crime and was one of the recommendations of the provides appropriate recommendations European Commission, and it’s also en- for their efficient suppression. Bearing visaged in the Action Plan for negoti- that in mind, organized crime will be ating Chapter 24 (Justice, freedom and presented in the strategic analysis only security). In addition to the process in brief – as an excerpt from the above of establishment of common Europe- mentioned national assessment. an policy in the fight against organized

1.2.1. Organized criminal groups – situation and tendencies

he number and composition of Organized Crime Threat Assessment the organized criminal groups (SOCTA) there were registered 58 or- (OCGs) active in Serbia are ganized criminal groups that were ac- Tchangeable. They are mostly “special- tively involved in the operations carried ized” in a particular area of crime, but out on the territory of the Republic of there are also an increasing number Serbia. Regarding the level of their or- of those groups that engage in various ganization, 8.6% had a high, 44.9% a forms of organized crime.In 2015, dur- medium and 46.5% a low level of or- ing elaboration of the national Serious ganization.

Picture 4 ‒ Level of organization of organized criminal groups in the Republic of Serbia

24 Strategic Analysis

High level and medium level OCGs er and very often due to their common mostly operate on national and interna- criminal history. tional level while OCGs with a low level One of the common characteristics of the and a smaller percent of the OCGs hav- OCG members (high and medium level ing a medium level of organization oper- of organization) is that these OCG mem- ate locally. bers, in order to ensure easier movements Their predominant criminal activities and commit crimes abroad, change their are smuggling, trade and production official identity and use false identifica- of drugs (86, 2% of OCGs are involved tion documents and use advantages of in these activities). They conduct their dual nationality. criminal activities in the countries of or- Lower-level organization OCGs ‘’recruit’’ igin of drugs, on the smuggling routes young persons who do not show maxi- and in destination countries, cooperating mum loyalty to the group, as opposed to with foreign OCGs. The majority of the higher-level organization OCGs which OCGs is poly-criminal i.e. in addition to are compact and more disciplined in their activities related to narcotic drugs (pro- activities and whose members are con- duction, smuggling and illegal traffick- stant and mutually connected for a longer ing), they also deal with other types of period of time. In addition, in parallel criminal activities and smuggle firearms, with a fall in the level of organization, the engage in the smuggling and distribution number of members who are foreign na- of counterfeit money, commit robberies, tionals declines as well. Most OCG mem- aggravated thefts, frauds, usury, vehicle bers of any level of organization, who are theft, money laundering and tax evasion. Serbian citizens, are mostly re-offenders. Their modus operandi is characterized by They have been already convicted for var- crimes that include elements of violence ious crimes, and half of them have been (murders and extortions). sentenced to prison sentences of more Criminal activities of the remaining than one year. groups (13,8%), having a medium or Operation of OCGs of all levels of or- low level of organization, are smuggling ganization is characterized by occasional of people, firearms and explosive devic- engagement of persons without criminal es and their trade, smuggling of excise record (mainly for logistics purposes- goods (cigarettes), fraud, money launder- transportation, storage of PCS and other ing and forgery of documents, in addition items acquired through crime), as well to robberies and aggravated thefts that as professionals (‘’specialists’’) in certain these groups commit solely abroad. areas (financial, chemical and IT experts- Structure of OCGs shows clear hierarchi- experts for explosive devices, for building cal organization. These are homogenous special vehicle bunkers, various false doc- groups that mostly have a solid and long uments, etc). lasting core of key members surrounded Members of OCGs with a high level of or- by a smaller number of constant mem- ganization own movable and immovable bers. Cooperation among organized property and large financial assets so the criminal groups runs without difficulties possibility of their corruptive influence because of ethnicity, friendly and family on representatives of governmental and relationships and lack of language barri- local public services is high. The financial

25 Public Security Strategic Assesment

power of OCGs with a medium level of focus on operations in foreign illegal organization is lower than of OCGs hav- markets, shifting to more profitable areas, ing a high level of organization which is and an increasingly active use of state-of- reflected on the level of their financial the-art information technologies and op- power and corruptive influence. The- fi erations in real time. nancial power and corruptive influence The main objective of organized criminal of the OCGs having a low level of organi- activities is profit- OCGs are constantly zation are far less than those of the above striving to enhance their financial pow- two OCG types. er and influence which makes them very When committing crimes, OCG mem- adaptable to demands and needs of the bers show a high level of aggressiveness criminal market. They use corruption, and brutality. There are also armed clash- fraud, forgery, as well as legal business es and killings between OCG members structures, to make the illegally gained which most frequently occur as a result of proceeds (i.e. dirty money) appear legal conflicting “business” interests and elim- (i.e. clean), increase their power and ac- ination of competition in the fight for a quire better social position. Therefore, leading role in the criminal market. combating organized crime has to be pri- The modalities of operation of certain marily focused on lessening of its finan- OCGs are becoming more complex as a cial power i.e. creation of efficient mech- result of an increasingly high degree of anisms for prevention of its infiltration flexibility and their networks at the re- into legal economies. gional level and international level and, During 2015 and 2016 legal proceedings as was shown over the recent years – at were initiated against certain OCGs with the widest transcontinental level, which is medium and low level of organization a relatively new dimension of organized while a certain number of OCGs with crime originating from the territory of medium and low level of organization the Republic of Serbia. ceased to exist because their leaders and/ OCGs are constantly developing new or certain members were arrested. forms of operation, such as the current

1.2.2. Crime areas

bia appears as the final destination and Production, illegal trafficking and country of PCS production (marijuana smuggling of drugs (PCS) and synthetic drugs). Production, illegal trafficking and smug- Organized criminal groups from Serbia, gling of drugs in Serbia are amongst the together with criminal groups from the most lucrative forms of organized crime neighboring countries, participate in involving the majority of OCGs. Ser- smuggling of cocaine from South Amer- bia is a transit country in terms of drug ica. Since the illegal market of cocaine smuggling while to a lesser extent Ser- in Serbia is small and its sales price is

26 Strategic Analysis high, OCGs direct their activities to oth- and Western Balkans and enter the EU er markets, primarily Western Europe member states. market. A significant number of criminal groups In Serbia, marijuana is produced under that have originally dealt with other natural and artificial conditions. Modi- types of crime redirects their criminal fied marijuana – skunk- is mostly pro- activities to human trafficking and make duced for domestic market and in small- huge profit with a small risk of detection. er quantities for foreign market. Serbia Large security risk arising from irregular is a transit country on the Central Bal- migration, both on national and glob- kan route used for marijuana smuggling al level, is a consequence of its current from Albania and Montenegro towards volume and intensity. In addition, it is Western Europe. Apart from marijuana impossible to determine with certainty smuggling, the same route is also used the identity of irregular migrants and it for smuggling of excise goods, firearms leaves open the possibility of infiltration and illegal migrants (and less for heroin of members of terrorist and radical or- smuggling) to Western Europe. ganizations among them, i.e. it is possi- When smuggling heroin OCGs most ble that their routes are used for trans- often use maritime routes due to refer of terrorist to the Western Europe duced risk of detection and possibilities countries. In addition, in the countries to smuggle larger quantities. Albanian of transit and final destination irregular OCGs have a significant role in traffick- migrants are in danger of becoming vic- ing and smuggling of heroin and they tims of human trafficking. control the South Balkan route and a part of the Central Balkan route. Human trafficking With reference to production of synthetic drugs, in Serbia were detected illegal There are cases of internal human traf- laboratories and recorded cases of pro- ficking in Serbia (victims and perpetra- duction of amphetamine and metham- tors are mainly Serbian nationals) and phetamine. In smuggling of synthetic sexual and labor exploitation are the drugs and precursors, criminals use the prevailing forms. Central Balkan route which runs from the Western European countries to the The danger of the appearance of new and Eastern Europe and Asia and vice versa, more complex methods of recruitment while a part of smuggled synthetic drugs and organization of human trafficking and precursors remains on the domestic is primarily grounded on the misuse of illegal market. Internet and social networks and they aggravate its suppression. Internet and social networks offer huge possibilities Irregular migration for ‘’recruitment’’ of victims but disable timely insight into new methods of hu- Serbia is facing with increased pressure man trafficking and, consequently, time- of so called secondary transit migra- ly response. tion of nationals of Afro-Asian complex whose final goal is to move from the conflict area, via the territory of Greece

27 Public Security Strategic Assesment

whether they have been stolen or rented Robberies in rent-a-car agencies and then “wiped off from insurance’’. Members of the or- Organized criminal groups and criminal ganized and criminal groups are mainly groups from the countries in the region, specialized in the theft of certain types composed of mixed nationalities, com- of vehicles and are interconnected and mit robberies mainly in retail facilities cooperate with criminal groups in the selling unique items and luxury watch- country and the region. They mainly es, jewels and precious metals which are have a network structure, are more de- located in the region and Central and centralized and organized in line and of- Western Europe. In Serbia these crimi- ten established ad hoc. nal offences are committed by individuals, criminal groups or groups established ad hoc but also nationals of the Weapons neighboring countries (independently or in cooperation with Serbian nation- Serbia is a transit area for weapons als). Higher level of organization is pres- smuggling towards Western and North ent in the robberies whose targets are Europe. To a lower extent it is a country transport of valuables and money and of origin, mainly of weapons and explo- facilities operating with large amounts sive devices remaining from the areas of cash. The lack of security measures affected by the war in the former Yu- and application of inadequate measures goslavia. Gas weapons from Turkey are of physical and technical protection of reshaped and recast in illegal workshops the facilities, along with a low level of in FYR Macedonia and area of Koso- security culture of the citizens contrib- vo and Metohija in firearms and then ute to perpetration of criminal offences further smuggled towards Western Eu- against property including robberies. rope. A specific quantity of firearms that is sold in the illegal market originates from property criminal offences, and is Motor vehicles used for execution of the most serious criminal offences. Both individuals and With reference to the vehicle theft in organized criminal groups, whose mem- Serbia, subject of this criminal offence bers are connected to criminal groups in are mainly foreign vehicles and there the country and the region. are special devices used for their theft. Luxurious motor vehicles, as well as motorcycles are stolen in the EU countries Economic crime and afterwards smuggled to Serbia and sold with counterfeited documents in Economic crime is manifested in vari- Serbia or neighboring countries. Serbia ous economic- financial areas in Serbia. is a transit country but also a final des- Organized criminal groups and criminal tination for smuggled passengers vehi- groups smuggle excise goods ( cigarettes, cles and cargo carrying motor vehicles, cut tobacco, alcohol, alcoholic drinks, motorcycles, buses, heavy duty vehi- oil, oil derivatives and coffee) intended cles designed for executing construction both for domestic and foreign market, tasks and operating machines, no matter

28 Strategic Analysis and that consequently leads to reduction aower of OCGs that are active in Serbia of the state budget revenues. as well as those originating from the Bal- Illegal trafficking and smuggling of to- kans and active on international level by bacco and tobacco products are affected placing ‚‘dirty‘‘ money i.e. illegally gained by a numerous factors: increase of retail money into legal financial system in Ser- prices of cigarettes due to excise increase bia. Money laundering is featured by well and alignment with the EU directives; spread and increasingly complex modus tobacco price differences in the coun- operandi adjustable to current changes tries of the region and other European and developments of domestic and inter- countries; speed of economic recovery; national financial system. The proceeds level of unemployment; standard and of crime are most often concentrated in purchasing power of the population; the areas that need so called ‚‘fresh cash‘‘ cooperation between competent author- and in which protective measures for ities on national level and degree of co- identification and prevention of suspi- operation accomplished on internation- cious money flows are least applied. al level. Smugglers of tobacco and tobacco prod- Cyber crime ucts have a large share in the grey economy (regardless of observed tendencies Development of modern information towards stabilization of the tobacco and technology encourages increase of the tobacco products‘ market, in addition to number of cyber crime related offenc- increase of incomes generated by excise es. It stems, inter allia, from insufficient taxes). Tobacco and tobacco products‘ knowledge of users about perils in the smuggling routes are conditioned by ge- online environment and insufficient ographical position of Serbia as a transit awareness of the need for protection. country for smuggling of the products. Use of ‘’smart’’ mobile phones addition- The routes used for illegal transfer of to- ally increases the risk, primarily from bacco and tobacco products are also used combined attacks which apply both tech- for smuggling of drugs, firearms and nical methods and social engineering. weapons as well as irregular migrants. Work on detection and arguing criminal offences is additionally burdened with a possibility of their commitment on vari- Money laundering ous geographic locations in a real time, as well as insufficiently aligned legal Money laundering runs the risk of con- frames on international level. solidating and increasing the financi-

29 Public Security Strategic Assesment

1.3. General Crime

General crime, manifested in fied as general crime1 (on average 92.000 different forms, most directly annually). In that period were reported jeopardizes citizens and, there- 181.017 perpetrators of criminal offenc- Оfore, they estimate their own security es classified as general crime (on average on the basis of general crime rates. In more than 36.000 annually). In January- addition, general crime has the widest October of 2016 were committed 68.858 consequences ranging from destruction criminal offences classified as general of material and cultural values through crime which account for a 5% decrease threat to personal security of citizens compared with the first ten months of and impairment of their personal integ- the previous year (72.565) and 36.124 rity and health, to the most severe, lethal perpetrators were reported. consequences. 1 The highest number of the criminal offences Over the 2011- 2015 period on the ter- classified as general crime was reported in 2013 (over 104.000). The key reason were amend- ritory of the Republic of Serbia was re- ments to the Criminal Code of December 2012 corded 462.560 criminal offences classi- on the basis of which the census for criminal prosecution of a theft, evasion and fraud was lowered from RSD 15.000 to 5.000 (with reference to the value of the confiscated item).

Picture 5 ‒ The total crime volume: per years, in the 2011‒2015 period and in the course of the first ten months of 2015 and 2016.

The most of the criminal offences clas- has been committed on the area of PD sified as general crime has been com- Niš, Kragujevac, Smederevo, Šabac, mitted on the area of Belgrade and Sombor, Subotica, Zrenjanin, Kikinda, Novi Sad- almost a 50%, more precisely Pančevo and Sremska Mitrovica. The 203.937 criminal offences or 45% of the similar tendencies are present in the first overall crime rate. The majority of the ten months of 2016. criminal offences (more than 10.000)

30 Strategic Analysis

31 Public Security Strategic Assesment

Picture 6 ‒ Outline of general crime in period 2011‒2015

1.3.1. Criminal offences covered by general crime – according to areas

1.3.1.1. Criminal offences against life and limb

n the 2011- 2015 period, criminal re- over the considered period was by 80% ports were filed for 17.850 criminal higher; murder – 81%, attempted mur- offences committed against life and der – 88%, aggravated murder – 83%, Ilimb and made up 3,8% of the general aggravated attempted murder – 84%, crime offences. There was a moderate and severe bodily injury 88%. drop in the volume of offences from Over that period of time were registered 3.854 in 2011 to 3.169 in 2015. With ref- 20.233 perpetrators of criminal offenc- erence to the structure, there were 287 es against life and limb. According to murders, 266 aggravated murders, 731 their age, the most represented groups attempted murders, 186 aggravated at- are aged 21-30 (almost one third of the tempted murders, 6.224 severe bodily perpetrators), aged 31-40 (17, 2%) and injuries, out of which 27 had lethal con- aged 18- 20 (13%). Women make up 5, sequences. Percentage of solved criminal 7% (on average 230 on annual level) of offences against life and limb is high and the total number of the perpetrators.

32 Strategic Analysis

Picture 7 ‒ Structure of criminal offences against life and limb in period 2011–2015 In January- October 2016 were reported and perpetrators themselves. They are 2.508 criminal offences against life and consequences of organized crime and limb, a 4, 2% decrease compared with present its explicit manifestation. Even the same period of the previous year. though they take place among the of- During that period, there were recorded fenders involved in organized crime re- 45 murders, 40 aggravated murders, 82 lated activities, these are characterized attempted murders, 36 attempts to com- by high level of security threat since they mit aggravated murder and 877 severe are committed in a brutal manner and bodily injuries, none of which were with in public areas. They are mostly instigat- fatal consequences. The rate of solved ed by struggle to take a leading position, criminal offences was high: murders – complex and tangled mutual relations, 87%, attempted murders – 84%, aggra- revenge etc. Murders between criminals vated murders – 79%, attempted aggra- are mainly committed by firearms. At vated murders – 71%, and severe bodily a recent time, public attention was at- injuries – 90%. tracted by murders between members of In relation to the most serious offences opposite supporters’ groups and killings committed against life and limb (mur- of the leaders of the supporters. From ders and aggravated murders), domestic 2011 to October 2016 there were 11 such homicides make up 40%. There were cas- murders and aggravated murders- 9 of es of murders motivated by greed, com- them took place in Belgrade, 1 in Novi mitted in family houses and apartments Sad and 1 in Čačak. In relation to other and whose victims were old persons in- categories, there are murders which are capable of taking care of themselves. consequences of different (even acciden- tal) conflicts, fights and committed in Murders and aggravated murders com- the heat of the moment, because of committed by criminals are distinctive in plicated and tangled property relations, terms of their motive, modus operandi revenge murders etc.

33 Public Security Strategic Assesment

1.3.1.2. Criminal offences against sexual freedom

n the 2011-2015 period, criminal of- es against sexual freedom are difficult to fences against sexual freedom made prove: most often there are no witnesses, up 0, 4% of the general crime. More sustained injuries are not observed on Iprecisely, in that period were reported time, and victims who report the crim- 1.952 criminal offences against sexual inal offence do it after a delay or too late. freedom out of 462.850 criminal offenc- In the 2011- 2015 period were report- es classified as general crime. On aver- ed 1.755 criminal charges filed against age, 390 criminal offences against sexual perpetrators of criminal offences against freedom were committed on annual lev- sexual freedom and 97,3% of the reports el. The number of cases dropped from was filed against male perpetrators. The 499 in 2011 to 339 in 2015. However, in most represented perpetrators were the first ten months of 2016 there were aged 21-30 (23% perpetrators) and 31- committed 305 criminal offences against 40 (18,2%). In the first ten months of sexual freedom or an 11% more than in 2016 gender structure of the perpetra- the same period of 2015. tors was slightly different. Male perpetrators made up 83, 5% of the total number of perpetrators. The age structure remained the same. In the 2011- 2015 period police recorded 1.831 victims of criminal offences against sexual freedom. Women made up 90, 5% of the total number of the victims, and they were mainly aged 12-17 (774 or 42, 3%) and 21-30. Picture 8 ‒ Number of criminal During the aforementioned five years offences against sexual freedom criminal charges were pressed in 371 per years in period 2011‒2015. cases of rape as the most severe criminal Regardless of decrease in the estimat- offence against sexual freedom and in ed number of criminal offences against 116 cases of attempted rape. In 2011 the sexual freedom (except for the first ten number of recorded cases of rapes was months of 2016), which is surely a pos- 83 and in 2015 declined to 61 while the itive tendency, we shouldn‘t neglect the number of cases of attempted rapes in fact that these are specific criminal of- 2011 was 37 and in 2015 declined to 18. fences in which „dark number“ is par- In the first ten months of 2016 were re- ticularly emphasized. Conservative en- ported 44 rapes (54 cases in the previous vironment, lack of education and fear of year) and 18 attempted rapes (17 cases revenge are some of the reasons why vic- in the previous year). tims rarely decide to report such criminal Physical strength is the most frequent- offences. In addition, sexual delicts are ly used resource in criminal offences also affected by numerous factors (espe- against sexual freedom followed by cold cially those related to the personality of weapons and firearms. Communication the offender). However, criminal offenc- via social networks is a very suitable tool

34 Strategic Analysis for bringing juveniles into real situa- are mainly committed in family houses, tions in which they can become victims residential building entrances, bus sta- of some of the criminal offences against tions, parks, uninhabited places in cities sexual freedom. Such criminal offences and motor vehicles.

Picture 9 ‒ Gender and age structure of the victims of criminal offences against sexual freedom from 2011 to 31st October 2016

1.3.1.3. Domestic violence

omestic violence, as extremely Domestic violence is a pattern of behav- complex phenomenon, is very ior characterized by murders and aggra- difficult to detect, especially in vated murders. In the 2011- 2015 peri- Dsituations lacking full cooperation with od was killed 255 persons who were in the victim and persons from its environ- a relationship with the perpetrator and ment. Domestic violence usually remains there were 14 victims who were not in a one of the well kept family secrets and, family relationship with the perpetrator. therefore, there is no true picture of dis- The most vulnerable category comprised tribution and presence of this phenome- wives, ex wives, cohabiting partners and non and that makes the work of compe- ex cohabiting partners (in total 94 per- tent authorities particularly heavy. sons), who made up 37% of total number There is a constant upward trend in the of victims who were in a relationship with crime rates related to domestic violence. the perpetrator. The vulnerable category In the 2011- 2015 period were reported also included parents: mothers made up 19.809 cases of domestic violence. In 13%, and fathers made up 11% of the to- 2015 were reported 5.349 cases or a 60% tal number of the victims who were in more than in 2011 when were reported family relationship with the perpetrator. 3.350 cases. In period January- October In January-October of 2016 were killed of 2016 were reported 5.079 such crimi- 42 persons who were in a family relation- nal offences that is 15% more than in the ship with a perpetrator and four persons first ten months of the previous year. who were not. In that period, as well, the most vulnerable category comprised wives, ex wives, cohabiting partners and

35 Public Security Strategic Assesment

ex cohabiting partners– 40, 5% of the vic- tor fell into that category. Again, parents tims (in total 17 persons) who were in a were in the group of the vulnerable and family relationship with a perpetra- victims of the family violence.

Picture 10 ‒ Total number of criminal offences that occur in a domestic violence context: in the 2011‒2015 period and during first ten months of 2015 and 2016.

Murders and aggravated murders in a Suppression of domestic violence is a domestic setting should be added to the burning issue and requires adoption of criminal offences that occur in a domes- new legislation. Namely, on 23rd No- tic violence context and have fatal con- vember 2016 the National Assembly of sequences. In the period ranging from the Republic of Serbia adopted the Law 2011 to October 2016 there were 11 such on Prevention of Domestic Violence cases and out of them 3 were committed which regulates actions taken by state in 2016. authorities and institutions in preven- The number of criminal charges filed tion of state violence and provision of for domestic violence has drastically in- protection and support to its victims. creased while ‚‘the dark number‘‘ is still Pursuant to the Law, domestic violence noticeable and therefore may be con- prevention entails a set of measures cluded that it has become a widespread that are used for detection of the pres- problem. It becomes even more obvious ence of immediate threat from domestic if we take into consideration the fact that violence and a set of measures that are psychological abuse is still most repre- applied when the immediate threat is sented form in family relations but it is detected. The Law entered into force in ‚‘invisible‘‘. Victims usually endure psy- December 2016 and shall be applicable chological abuse until it turns into phys- as of June 1st, 2017. ical violence and only then they decide to ask for help.

1.3.1.4. Criminal offences against property

he most represented category of committed more than 300.000 crimi- general crime is property crime. nal offences against property that made TIn the 2011- 2015 period were up 65% of general crime. Police cleared

36 Strategic Analysis over 90% of extortions, 85% of abduc- mous persons (N.N.) In the period rang- tions and 65% of grand larcenies, more ing from January to October 2016, their than 50% of the total number of offences share in general crime was lower and ac- of theft and aggravated thefts and about counted for 60%. 50% of robberies committed by anony-

Picture 11 ‒ Share of criminal offences against property in overall crime rate: in the 2011‒2015 period and during first ten months of 2016 The prevailing types of crime, among operating with cash (banks, post offic- property crimes, were theft, aggravated es, exchange offices etc), jewelries etc. In theft and unauthorized use of another‘s respect of attacks on houses and apart- vehicle, which made up 85% of property ments, they are characterized by pe- crime. The most serious criminal offences culiar time of execution. In rural areas against property including elements of vi- perpetrators run their illegal activities olence- robbery, grand larceny and extor- at night and during religious gather- tion- accounted for 6% of property crime. ings and festivities when owners of the There was an increase in the number property are absent while in urban areas of offences related to theft, aggravated they are active in periods when owners theft, robbery and grand larceny in the are at work or in school. Objects of the 2011- 2013 period and over next two attack are often abandoned inactive fac- years the number decreased. tories, whose premises and property do not have adequate physical- technical In the 2011- 2015 period was reported protection. In recent years there were 84.584 perpetrators of property crime- an increasing number of the perpetra- on average about 3, 5 criminal offences tors amongst the addicts to games on against property per a perpetrator. In chance who commit property crimes in relation to the age of the perpetrators, order to get some money to repay debts. the prevailing category was aged 21- 30 In addition, among the perpetrators of (almost one third), then followed 31- 40 the criminal offences against property age group (20, 5%) and 18- 20 age group are also present drug addicts. In order to (13, 4%). Women made up about 10% of obtain money to buy drugs, they do not the perpetrators. choose manner or method of execution As in the past, objects of the attack were of criminal acts and are multiple return- various: family houses and apartments ees in committing robberies, aggravated (from which were most often taken thefts and thefts. money, jewels, technical devices and Most frequently factors that are suita- other valuables), retail stores, facilities ble for commitment of property crime

37 Public Security Strategic Assesment

comprise isolation and poor security of arms and the remaining part by threat facilities, along with a low level of secu- of cold weapons (most often knife). The rity culture of the population. Cases of perpetrators were mainly unemployed aggravated thefts committed by use of persons aged 16- 30 followed by persons ruthless behavior are most frequently aged 31- 40. Among them were also recorded in summer period. drug addicts, especially in the area of the The most frequent criminal offences City of Belgrade. against property including elements of About 50% of the robberies were com- violence were robberies – almost 17.000 mitted in a closed space- mainly in small in the 2011‒2015 period that is almost retail stores and approximately 45% in 1.800 cases in the first ten months of open space. With reference to the con- 2016. Although the volume of commit- sequences that can be caused by differ- ted robberies decreased in 2015 and ent types of robberies, experiences show 2016, that criminal offence calls for due that street robberies and robberies com- attention since it is one of the socially mitted in residential and retail units are most dangerous. The most vulnerable are most dangerous, especially armed rob- large city centers. During the assessed beries committed in facilities operating five year period over 50% of robberies with large quantities of cash as well as on the territory of Serbia was committed robberies affecting personnel who trans- on the territory of Belgrade. Then fol- ported money. In the 2011‒2015 peri- lowed PD Novi Sad (15%), Kragujevac, od were committed 1.924 robberies in Niš, Subotica and Sremska Mitrovica facilities operating with cash- mostly in (approximately 3% per each respective- exchange offices (26%), filling stations ly). Number of robberies directly de- (26%) and betting offices (19%), then pends on the density of the population followed post offices, gambling hous- and concentration and number of facili- es and banks. Money transport means ties that are most frequent targets of the were targets in 35 cases and means of attacks. Robberies in facilities operating transport carrying goods were targets in with cash, especially in banks, post offic- 15 recorded cases. In relation to materi- es, exchange offices, betting offices and al damage, there were significant chains gambling houses in large city centers of robberies whose targets were mainly are directly a consequence of large con- small scale retail stores. centration of the facilities on a relative- In the 2011‒2015 period, on the territory ly small area. Additional ‚‘advantage‘‘ is of Serbia were committed 133.134 crim- that these facilities keep large sums of inal offences of aggravated theft and at- money needed for daily trade than other tempted aggravated theft. Most of them facilities. A number of the facilities still were committed on the area of Belgrade does not have adequate physical- tech- PD (8.872 or 53%), along with areas of nical protection even though the prob- PD Novi Sad (15%), PD Kragujevac, PD lem has drawn widespread attention on Niš, PD Subotica, PD Sremska Mitrovica a number of occasions. and PD Pančevo (below 3%). A series of Generally speaking, almost 1/3 of the to- aggravated theft were mainly committed tal volume of robberies was committed in the area of Belgrade and Novi Sad but by use of physical force, 1/3 was com- they were not uncommon in smaller cit- mitted by threat of a gun or other fire- ies. Aggravated thefts were mainly com-

38 Strategic Analysis mitted in closed space (about 50% of the able spare parts on illegal market, their total crime volume) and mostly inflicted use for execution of other criminal acts, damage to business facilities, including for blackmailing its owner (owner is de- retail facilities, and then to residential manded a ransom for the return of the units/ complexes. In the open (outdoors) stolen vehicle) and unauthorized trans- were committed 42% of aggravated port (mainly older vehicles). In addition, thefts while 7% of them was committed frequent thefts include transport of vehi- on transport means (stolen parts of ve- cles that were been rented in rent-a-car hicles or items found inside a vehicle). agencies using falsified documents (in In the 2013‒2015 period 379 aggravated Serbia or the EU countries) and then thefts was committed on facilities oper- sold to third parties or owners of car ating with cash (post offices, exchange scrap yards. offices and betting offices, and then fill- In the 2011-2015 period on the terri- ing stations and banks) and on means tory of the Republic of Serbia were re- of transport carrying goods and money. corded 14.125 thefts of motor vehicles Relatively new forms of these offences (on average 2.825 annually). According were aggravated thefts of items made of to the type of a vehicle, the majority of copper and brass, especially telecommu- stolen vehicles were passenger vehicles nication and electrical cables. On the one – 11.625 or 82, 3%. Then followed com- hand, the spread of this phenomenon mercial vehicles -615 or 4, 3% and mo- was affected by market demand for sec- torcycles 472 or 3, 3%. Among the stolen ondary material and, therefore, cost-ef- vehicles were 25 buses and 1.388 other fectiveness of their purchase and sale and motor vehicles. on the other hand, their lack of protection. The price of copper on the world Annual rate of stolen vehicles dropped market had impact on frequent cases of over the assessed period from 3.370 in such aggravated theft, theft, petty theft, 2011 to 2.454 in 2015. The same trend evasion and fraud, destruction or dam- was recorded in the area of Belgrade- age on public equipment and destruction from 1.873 in 2011 to 1.338 in 2015. and damage of another‘s object- to the The highest rate of reported vehicle thefts detriment of public enterprises, when in cities was as follows: Belgrade – 53, perpetrators stole items made of copper 4%, Novi Sad – 10%, Sremska Mitrovica and particularly telecommunication and – 3, 6%, Kragujevac – 3, 3%, Smederevo electrical cables. – 3%, Niš– 2, 7% and Šabac – 2, 5%. The rate of stolen vehicles (except operating machinery) was lower in rural areas. Motor vehicle theft In the period January- October 2016 Motor vehicle theft used to be a wide- were stolen 1.793 motor vehicles. The spread criminal offence in 90’s of 20th structure of the stolen vehicles accord- century and at the beginning of 20th ing to the type of the vehicle remained century. Nowadays it poses a small scale the same. The largest share of vehicle security threat. theft was in the area of Belgrade and Novi Sad, followed by Smederevo, Niš, The main objectives of motor vehicle Sremska Mitrovica, Јаgodina, Šabac, theft are: smuggling and sale on domes- Vranje and Valjevo. tic illegal market or abroad, sale of us-

39 Public Security Strategic Assesment

Subject to the criminal offences of vehi- bles damage free opening of car lock cyl- cle theft are mainly foreign made vehi- inders within about 10 seconds. Its price cles- Volkswagen, Audi, Opel, Renault, on domestic market is about EUR 1200 BMW, Mercedes, Peugeot and Škoda. but the same devices have appeared at the Over the past years the number of sto- price of EUR 300. In addition, there is a len vehicles of domestic production de- ‚‘zed bull‘‘ transponder key programmer clined. A part of stolen motor vehicles, that enables reading the electronic code along with motorcycles, is sold in Serbia that is entered into the master key on the while old vehicles are usually disman- spot. The code is immediately loaded in tled and their individual parts are sold a blank key and thus is produced a copy for profit. of the original key. However, there are Directions used for transport of stolen vehicles whose theft requires tools that vehicles have remained the same over the cannot be found in Serbia or neighbor- years. One of directions leads from Bel- ing countries. In case that their theft is grade to AP Kosovo and Metohija, Mon- reported, it is usually presumed that it is tenegro and Albania. The other is via a false report. Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, As it was already mentioned, motor ve- Bulgaria and FYR Macedonia. The third hicle theft is the most frequent crimi- is over Hungary, Romania, Moldova to nal offence in the area of Belgrade PD, Russia and Ukraine. A part of the most which is understandable given the num- luxury vehicles stolen in the Republic ber of inhabitants, number of vehicles of Croatia or Federation of Bosnia and and their fluctuation. In 2015 the num- Herzegovina, with forged chassis and ber of vehicles stolen in Belgrade made engine numbers and false documents is up 67, 5% of the total number of vehicles sold in Serbia or transported from Ser- stolen on the territory of Serbia. During bia and sold in Croatia or Federation of the same year, on average the number of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Armed con- vehicles stolen on daily basis was 3, 1 (in flicts in the Middle East halted transfer 2014- 3, 3 on daily basis). With refer- of stolen vehicles to that area. ence to the time of perpetration of the Motor vehicles are stolen in different vehicle theft, it is worth mentioning that ways, depending on the make and type, there is an interesting pattern. Namely, age and protection system. Different vehicle theft in the area of Belgrade is techniques of quick breaking in are used more frequent at the beginning of a week and by use of electronic devices and ad- (Monday) when there are many vehicles justed software central computer of a ve- on the streets and at night between Sun- hicle is neutralized to ensure operation day and Monday when owners prepare of the vehicle. This type of crime directly themselves for a new working week. Ve- depends on detection of new methods hicles that are intended to be dismantled of execution- tools used for theft have to into parts are mainly stolen at the end keep up with actual technical solutions of a week (at night between Thursday in motor car industry and therefore and Friday) so that they could be sold at there are always new ones. For instance, weekend. in 2015 on domestic market appeared a Solving of criminal offences related to new universal tool called ‚‘turbo decod- vehicle theft is followed by numerous er‘‘- a mechanical flexible key that ena- difficulties, primarily due to lack of ev-

40 Strategic Analysis idence, low quality traces at the crime streets and boulevards, are suitable for scene, lack of information on accurate the criminals whose targets are vehi- time of perpetration of crime and lack cles. Assistance that can be provided by of witnesses. In addition, criminals steal a damaged party is negligible and cases a vehicle and leave the crime scene very of catching perpetrators red handed are fast, especially on locations with quality rare. Among aggravating circumstances traffic infrastructure or good connec- are insufficient area coverage by security tion with a highway and other roads cameras, low level security culture of the that lead to exits from a city. City centers vehicle owners (unprotected vehicles, with large residential complexes, trade parking in dark areas of a city, leaving and business centers, along with insuf- vehicles with a key inside etc) and so on. ficiently illuminated parts of a city, wide

1.3.1.5. Drugs

inistry of Interior has broad Novi Sad and Niš, as large city centers competencies in combating inhabited by one third of the overall all forms of crime related to population. The highest rate of confisca- Mdrugs. Drugs (psychoactive controlled tion (59%) is recorded in the aforemen- substances) pose a serious problem tioned cities. which is specific in terms that it gener- In the 2011- 2015 period on the territory ates both security and socio- pathologi- of Serbia was seized almost 12,5t of nar- cal consequences. In all societies, drug cotic drugs –predominantly marijuana related crime is connected to other forms (10, 4 t), heroin (440kg), ecstasy (115 kg) of crime (property crime, murders, hu- and cocaine (104 kg). The followed am- man trafficking, criminal offences against phetamine (88 kg), hashish (24 kg) and traffic security, domestic violence etc) or other narcotic drugs (total 1, 3 t). In ad- directly results from them and therefore dition, police seized about 742.500 piec- requires particular attention. es of narcotics including 21.000 pieces of Actors who define a way or modus op- ecstasy, 1.600 pieces of amphetamine etc. erandi in fight against drugs have to be Apart from large cities and urban areas, aware of constant need for a coordinated certain quantities of drugs were seized activity, continuous professional devel- on the areas covered by regional police opment, exchange and share of practi- directorates Vranje, Pozarevac, Užice, cal experience (know how), continuous Subotica, Zrenjanin, Kikinda, Pančevo, monitoring and analysis of the situation. Kraljevo and Sremska Mitrovica. Health and security of the whole nation From January to October of 2016 on the are directly endangered by perpetration territory of the Republic of Serbia was of the criminal offences related to drugs seized 2,6t of narcotic drugs (compared and as such have to pose a high priority with 1, 2 t in the same period of 2015). task of each society. Police confiscated 2,3 t of marijuana, 23 Distribution and sale of drugs on the kg of heroin, 14,6 kg of ecstasy, 16,4 kg territory of Serbia gravitate to Belgrade, of cocaine, 22,2 kg of amphetamine, 2,4

41 Public Security Strategic Assesment

kg of hashish and 245 kg of other narcot- er packaging - „quarter“(0, 2 to 0, 25 g) ic drugs. In addition, police seized about and „tera“(0, 3 g) for eight to ten Euros. 509.000 pcs of narcotic drugs including The price of skunk varies and ranges from more than 8.000 pcs of ecstasy EUR 3.000 to 4.000 per kg. Marijuana is illegally produced in Serbia Cocaine appears in Serbia during its tran- and therefore is a widespread PCS. sit to Europe and in smaller quantities re- Recently there has been an increase in mains in the country intended for sale on domestic production of marijuana in domestic market. In certain cases cocaine natural conditions and production of is smuggled to Serbia by couriers from modified marijuana- skunk in artificial the South America countries (in special- conditions, whose value on the market ly prepared luggage, body cavities, postal is higher. Production of marijuana in parcels and so called express postal deliv- artificial conditions records increasing ery). There are no records about any case investments ranging from the purchase of production of cocaine in Serbia (nei- of laboratory equipment and improved ther natural nor artificial conditions). conditions in laboratories to the pur- According to the results of a national sur- chase of high-quality equipment which vey on lifestyle of the population in Ser- is used even in legal agricultural produc- bia, cocaine is rarely consumed- it is used tion. In some of the laboratories are even by 2, 8% of the overall population (1% installed surveillance systems.. by consumers aged 18- 34 and 0,2% by consumers aged 18- 34). Average price of cocaine in Serbia is EUR 30.000- 40.000 per kg while one gram of cocaine on the street level is between EUR 80- 100. Due to relatively low demand, the price of cocaine in Serbia is far lower than on West- ern Europe market and therefore the sale gravitates to illegal markets in Western Europe countries where high profit potential can be realized. Picture 12 ‒ Clandestine laboratory The quantities of seized heroin declined used for marijuana cultivation in the in the 2008-2013 period while in 2014 Republic of Serbia was recorded their increase. Due to such fluctuations, heron supply was reduced Due to the fact that it is produced in Ser- and led to increase of its price on local bia, marijuana is much cheaper than oth- market. Nowadays heroin is sold at a er drugs and therefore amongst the drugs wholesale price EUR 19.000- 22.000 per which are in constant demand. With ref- kg, while street level price varies between erence to street-level drug sale, the quan- EUR 20-25 per 1g. Roughly speaking, tities vary between 0, 5 and 1kg of mar- a heroin addict in Serbia uses two or ijuana. The price varies from EUR 1000 three doses of a mixture bought on street in the surroundings of Raška area and market on daily basis. If we count that Pčinjski County to EUR 1.500 in large one dose, on average, weights 0,2–0,25g cities (Belgrade and Novi Sad). Modi- (quarter) or 0,3 g (tera) and have in mind fied marijuana (skunk) is sold in small- that retail price varies between EUR 5-7,

42 Strategic Analysis we may conclude that each addict needs According to the latest assessment re- a maximum quantity of 0,5–1 g per day leased in 2014,2 , the number of intrave- (EUR 20–25) or 220–365 g per year. nous drug addicts in our country ranged So far there has been no information from 10.000 to 25.000. More precisely, on production of heroin on the territo- according to assessments there were ry of the Republic of Serbia. Heroin that 20.000 intra venous drug users or 0, 4% occurs on domestic market during its population aged 15- 64. transit is high quality and in the form of 2 Public Health Institute ‘Dr Milan Jovanovic a base which is later blended with other Batut’, National survey on lifestyle of the population in Serbia (Национално истраживање substances (paracetamol, caffeine, sugar о стиловима живота становништва Србије) etc) to ensure higher profit.. 2014, page 10.

Picture 13 ‒ Synthetic drugs Synthetic drugs enter Serbian illegal Belgrade and Novi Sad, to ten Euros in market mostly from Western Europe and smaller cities and areas. One kilogram Bulgaria. They are produced in Serbia, as of amphetamine-sulphate is sold at the well, in rented residential and business price of EUR 3000. Amphetamine and units (police observed a trend of reloca- cocaine consumption by population tion of its production to rural areas). aged 18-34 is less than 1%. 4 Along with According to the increase in the num- development of information-communi- ber of new synthetic drugs and precur- cation technology are established new sors on the market in the 2011-2015 pe- methods of sale of synthetic drugs and riod (from 125 to 558)3 we may notice precursors. Rulebook on the content of that there is a tendency of continuous the PCS lists (Official Gazette of the Re- emergence of new synthetic (so called public of Serbia, No. 27/15). designed) drugs and components for their production. The price of synthetic drugs on the street level market ranges from five Euros, in large cities such as

3 Rulebook on the content of the PCS lists (Offi- 4 Public Health Institute ‘Dr Milan Jovanovic cial Gazette of the Republic of Serbia, No. 27/15). Batut’“, Opus citatum, page 21–22.

43 Public Security Strategic Assesment

1.3.1.6. Illegal possession of firearms

he issue of illegal possession of the region pose a significant and wide- firearms in Serbia emerges, pri- spread security threat- given their avail- marily, as a consequence of war ability for execution of terrorist acts, use Tconflicts that took place on the territory in perpetration of different criminal of- of former Yugoslavia. Great quantities of fences and supply of organized criminal firearms that remained after the war in groups with such weapon.

Picture 14‒ Weapon seized in the 2011‒2015 period In the 2011- 2015 period, on the territo- The issue of illegal possession of firearms ry of the Republic of Serbia were seized along with trafficking and smuggling of 7.896 pcs of firearms, mostly pistols and firearms was substantiated by the latest revolvers (4.142 pcs or 52, 4%) and ri- seizure conducted in late 2016 when po- fles (1.666pcs or 21%). In addition, police confiscated 9kg of plastic explosive, lice seized 982 hunting rifles, 646 pcs of 2,5kg of TNT explosive, 110 handheld small caliber firearms, 299 gas pistols, 61 bombs, 2 rocket launchers RBR, a doz- automatic pistols, 47 submachine guns, en of rifle grenades, 5 automatic pistols, 22 machine guns and 31 pcs of old tro- 2automatic rifles, 6 pistols, 1 carbine and phy guns. 1 small caliber rifle in the area of Apatin. In the period January- October 2016 on That was the largest seizure since 2000. the territory of the Republic of Serbia There was another significant seizure in were seized 1.023 pcs of firearms (similar 2016 when police confiscated 40kg of to first ten months of 2015), mostly pis- explosive in Kraljevo. Large quantities tols and revolvers (514 pcs or 50%) and of firearms, ammunition, explosive and rifles (164pcs or 16%). Police also seized: explosive devices can be found in ille- 156 hunting rifles, 146 pcs of small ca- gal possession of citizens and that fact is liber firearms, 31 ball bearing guns, 6 substantiated by numerous seizures. automatic pistols, 4 submachine guns, 1 machine gun and 1 old trophy gun.

44 Strategic Analysis

1.3.1.7. Criminal offences against cultural property

rime related to cultural proper- bia has at its disposal and large material ty, as a complex form of crime, value of the items (especially on arche- causes extremely harmful and ir- ological sites and museums and private Crecoverable consequences in the area of collections) but also due to a number of national culture that is cultural heritage trade routes in the region. Methods and and historical legacy. Therefore, activ- routes of smuggling of cultural property ities focused on its suppression are ex- are similar to other forms of smuggling, tremely important, primarily because of with certain specific adjustments. protection of cultural heritage and pres- With reference to the suppression of ervation of national identity. crime related to cultural property, there Crime related to cultural property is are many open issues. Firstly, the issue of a type of crime that comprises inter- ensuring evidence of such criminal of- twined forms of classic, organized and fences and fnding stolen cultural-histor- trans-border crime but is not sufficiently ical and art property, then the legislation highlighted in the public. Cultural goods issue, methods of technical protection of have been jeopardized by activities taken the facilities where such property is kept by individuals and criminal groups, pri- and maintained, the issue of prevention marily due to their significant material and, as particularly important, the issue value. Thefts and smuggling of cultural of professional training of operative staff goods are mainly performed as a result and creation of specialized organization- of cooperation between criminal groups al units. A huge problem is reflected in on international and regional level. That a lack of a single data base (records) on form of organized criminal activity will stolen cultural- historical works and art be present in the forthcoming period property that would improve exchange given a large cultural property that Ser- of information.

Picture 15 ‒ Overview of cultural property crime scene in the 2011–2015 period In the 2011- 2015 period, on the terri- ed on an annual level). Aggravated thefts tory of the Republic of Serbia were re- have the largest share in the total num- ported 1.015 criminal offences of theft ber of criminal offences related to cul- of cultural-historical and cultural-art tural property (750) and the total num- property items (on average 203 record- ber of stolen items is 1.707.

45 Public Security Strategic Assesment

With reference to cultural property crime in 2013 during a police operation in the scenes, these are mainly residential units town of Sremska Mitrovica. The piece (590), churches (254), monasteries (31), was also stolen in 1993 but it was recov- archeological sites (18), museums (16) ered shortly after. and galleries (7). With regards to the content of the confiscated property, the majority of the items are made of gold and silver (568), there are art pictures (308), religious works of art- icons (33) and items of numismatic collections (23). Some valuable works of art that had been stolen abroad were found on the territory of the Republic of Serbia. The Rembrandt’s painting ‘’ An old Man with a Divided Fur Cap’’ or commonly called ‘’Portrait of the Father“, was stolen in Novi Sad, from the Foreign Art Col- lection of the city’s museum on 8 Jan- uary 2006 along with other three pieces of art. Although the painting is thought Picture 20 ‒ an Old Man to be the work of a 17 century Dutch with a Divided Fur Cap artist Rembrandt it has never been ver- Source: www.google.rs/serch ified. The painting was found by police

Picture 17 ‒ Paul Cèzanne –The Boy in the Red Vest Source: www.google.rs/serch Among recovered stolen arts is Paul Monet, Vincent van Gogh and Edgar Cézanne’s The Boy in the Red Vest, a Degas in 2008. painting thought to be worth about The painting was found four years later EUR 100 million. It was stolen from the and it is believed to be the most valuable E G Buhrle Collection in Zurich along art work ever discovered on the territory with three other masterpieces by Claude of Serbia.

46 Strategic Analysis

1.3.1.8. Juvenile crime

n the 2011- 2015 period, 37.270 2014 and by 12% in 2015). In the first ten criminal offences were committed months of 2016 the number of criminal and 19.649 juvenile delinquents re- offences declined by 11% ‒ 4.640 crim- Iported (female juvenile delinquents ac- inal offences as compared with 5.224 counted for 6%-9%, and in violent crime criminal offences perpetrated in the pe- only 1, 5% to 4%). After 2013, the rate riod January- October 2015. of juvenile crime dropped (by 19% in

Picture 18 ‒ Number of criminal acts committed by juvenile delinquents: in the 2011‒2015 period and during first ten months of 2015 and 2016

Picture 19 ‒ Number of criminal offences committed by minors as compared with the total volume of criminal offences committed in the 2011-2015 period. The share of juvenile crime in the total Serbia i.e. Niš, Jablanica and Zaječar dis- crime volume accounted for 7% and dur- trict) while less than 1/3 of the overall ing the period 2015- 2016 even less. On crime volume was committed in the area average 4.000 minors committed about of Belgrade City PD. 7.500 criminal acts on annual level, out In relation to the structure of juvenile of which 35% on the area of AP Vojvodi- crime, primarily, we should highlight na and the same rate applied to the area property and violence crime. Criminal under the jurisdiction of 19 regional po- offences related to narcotic drugs are not lice directorates (mostly in the Southeast

47 Public Security Strategic Assesment

present to a large extent; however their taining to individuals younger than the consequences are important for analysis statutory age of majority. and preventive- repressive actions per-

Picture 20 ‒ Most represented criminal offences committed by juvenile delinquents in the 2011–2015 period Property crime accounts for 78% ju- in thefts as collaborators and later as venile crime and the most represented co-perpetrators. criminal offences are aggravated thefts The fact that draws particular attention and thefts, robberies, extortion and un- is that juvenile violent crime accounts authorized use of another‘s vehicle. In for 10% of juvenile crime (4,8% crimi- the majority of cases minors commit nal offences against life and limb, 0,5% criminal offences against property in criminal offences against sexual freedom groups (co-perpetration). Their targets and 5% criminal offences against public are mainly passersby or poorly protect- order and peace). For the most part, vi- ed facilities and therefore they commit olent delinquency of minors is caused property crime with smaller scale mate- by present circumstances. In terms of rial damage. There are two problems in disorderly conduct, typical cases include this field: high percentage of reoffenders fighting in a public place with different and persons under the age of 14 (under consequences and different legal qualifi- the age of criminal responsibility) who cation ( these cases are usually qualified participate in juvenile property crime as criminal offence of violent behavior, (mainly children from Romani society severe bodily injuries, light bodily in- and poor families). In relation to prop- juries, participation in fight or offences erty crime, younger adults often exploit against public peace and order). Less minors and children and ‘involve‘‘ them

48 Strategic Analysis represented are cases of criminal offenc- With reference to criminal acts related es against life and limb (up to five cases to narcotic drugs, they make up 4, 5% of of murder are recorded annually) and the total juvenile crime; persons under against sexual freedom (up to ten cases 18 (mainly older minors aged 16-18) are of rapes, mainly among age-mates). involved in illicit production and trade in narcotic drugs but they make up only Peer violence poses a special problem 4% of the reported perpetrators of the which generates different types of vio- criminal offence. They make up about lent criminal acts. It doesn‘t occur only 7% of those reported to be involved in in schools but in other places as well. illicit keeping of narcotic drugs (main- It comprises different forms and mani- ly marijuana). Annually, about 250-300 festations of violence (verbal, physical, minors are recorded to have taken part sexual, economic, digital or combined in such activities, mainly in the area of forms, like in cases of criminal acts of Belgrade and (to a smaller extent) in abuse and torture). Frequent use of cold Novi Sad. weapons and tools in acts of violence pose a significant problem and that leads to difficult consequences.

1.3.2. General crime to the detriment of vulnerable groups

1.3.2.1. Criminal acts to the detriment of the minors

n the 2011-2015 period were com- and during 2015 and 2016 decreased to mitted 16.558 criminal acts to the 3.000. However, in the first ten months of detriment of 17.359 minors (fatal 2016 were recorded 2.560 criminal acts Iconsequences for 174 persons). In 2012 to the detriment of 2.738 minors that are the number decreased to estimated 3.400 by 5, 5% more criminal acts and by 4, 5% (even less) criminal acts on annual level more minor victims.

Picture 21‒ Number of aggrieved parties among the minors and criminal acts committed to the detriment of the minors in the 2011–2015 period

49 Public Security Strategic Assesment

Criminal acts committed to the detri- third. In terms of circumstances that ment of the persons under the age of 18 are inappropriate for security or proper on annual level make up about 5% of development of children, there are criminal acts in which damaged party dysfunctional family, places providing are natural persons. entertainment, food and drinks, and According to the records, on annual level other places used for gathering of young about 3.500 (+/-500) minors are damaged people, including schools. For the most by criminal acts. Numerousness and part, perpetrators of criminal acts to the type of committed criminal acts indicate detriment of the minors were known to that children are mostly vulnerable in police. On the other hand, we should traffic. Second dangerous area is the emphasize police efficiency in solving street that is open public space, and the such criminal offences (about 80%).

Picture 22 ‒ Number of minors victims of criminal acts including elements of abuse or negligence by parents / custodians: in the 2011 until 31 October 2016 Even though criminal acts committed of human trafficking (over 40%), rape to the detriment of the persons under (37%) and other sexual delicts, abuse the age of 18 make up 6% of crime, on and torture (33%), failure to provide average, their share depends on the type maintenance (23%), violent behavior of a delict. With reference to the total (19%), extortion (19%), jeopardizing number of natural persons damaged by a public traffic safety (16%) and serious certain type of a criminal act, the minors crimes against public traffic safety (14%). appear as victims of criminal offence

50 Strategic Analysis

With reference to violent crime, the most tains to newborns and children under frequent individual delicts affecting the age of seven that were killed by their minors are domestic (family) violence, parents, primarily mothers (over 70%), violent behavior and light / serious or fathers (12%). In addition to the two bodily injuries. aforementioned and the most represent- It is worth mentioning that there are ed methods applied in killing minors, criminal acts with fatal consequences criminal offences against general safety affecting the minors, criminal acts make up 10%. In the two thirds of the committed within families along with overall number of cases was determined various types of sexual abuse including that parents were directly responsible for trafficking of minors. the death of children (mainly because of leaving children unattended- in cases In the 2011-2015 period, the number of fire in residential units) while in one of minors who passed away in criminal third of the cases were responsible those acts ranged from 29 to 41 people on an- parties who failed to apply safety meas- nual level with less prominent but still ures at work or ensure technical control continuous reduction in the upward of installations and facilities. To a smaller trend in the crime rates in the forthcom- extent minors died from adverse effects ing years. Out of the total number (174 of medical treatment, parent‘s failure to minor victims), over 60% died in traffic carry out their parental responsibilities related offences and ¼ in cases of hom- in relation to the child, including feed- icides. The second group mostly per- ing, hygiene and healthcare..

Picture 23‒ Number of minor victims of criminal acts including elements of sexual abuse and sexual exploitation in the 2011-2015 period On annual level, there is about 400 mi- negligence by parents or custodian (over nors registered as victims of abuse or 70% of the children suffer violence and

51 Public Security Strategic Assesment

remaining 30% of negligence). In gener- Criminal acts on women or to the al, minor victims of the aforementioned detriment of women criminal acts include both genders and ages. However, in relation to individual In the 2011-2015 period were record- delicts, the most represented victims of ed 130.991 criminal acts committed on parental violence are children who at- women or to the detriment of women or tend secondary school while the young- ¼ of the total crime volume recorded in est (younger than seven) are mainly vic- that period. On average, that is 26.200 tims of two criminal offences: taking a criminal acts on the annual level. minor away from a parent (abduction of a minor) and neglecting and abusing a The structure of the criminal acts indi- minor. cates that women were mainly victims of aggravated theft (in 35.532 cases or 26, On annual level is registered about 250 4% of the criminal acts victims were fe- minor victims of sexual delicts, up to male), domestic violence (16.223 or 12, 100 minors (girls) are exploited for com- 4%) and robberies (7.112 or 5, 5%). mon law marriage, 1 person is a victim of incest and, in case of human traffick- In addition, in the afore mentioned five ing, about 15 (in 2015 and 2016 less than year period were recorded 66 murders, 10) are victims of sexual exploitation- 116 aggravated murders, 74 attempted for prostitution or forced marriage. murders, 34 attempted aggravated murders, 351 rapes, 109 attempted rapes, One fourth of the criminal acts covered inflicted 584 serious bodily injuries out by this group are violent- committed by of which 3 were fatal etc. The victims of use of force, violence or with threat of these criminal acts were 129.154 women. violence. Remaining 75% of the acts are committed by misuse of feeling of trust or In the period January- October 2016 dependency or by use of different physi- were reported 21.398 criminal offences cal conditions in which a victim is pow- against women. The number of victims erless, given its mental health, degree of was 21.259, and the structure of the most development or family conditions. serious criminal acts remained the same.

1.4. Economic crime

n the 2011-2015 period police de- tax evasion (1.110) etc. In the report- tected 42.165 acts of economic crime ed period police filed 21.886 criminal or, on average, 8.433 criminal offenc- charges against 25.312 perpetrators of Ies on the annual level. In the structure criminal acts related to economic crime. of detected criminal offences, the most If we take into consideration the ratio represented were: abuse of office (7.652), between reported offenders and solved forging of official documents (7.047), criminal offences, we may conclude fraud (corporate fraud (3.668), abuse of that it was 1:1,6 in the observed five office of responsible person (2.870), em- year period. bezzlement (1.950), abuse of authority in economy (1.897), illegal trade (1.828),

52 Strategic Analysis

The area of economic crime is charac- revenues. Economic crime manifests terized by more serious and complex itself in different areas and on different criminal offences and particular danger levels of business. It comprises frauds is posed by new forms directing eco- in business operations, smuggling and nomic operations to illegal flows and illegal trade, abuse in privatization depriving social community of large process, abuse in banking operations, financial means on the grounds of un- abuse related to land and civil engineer- accounted incomes and unpaid public ing constructions etc.

Picture 24 ‒ Overall number of criminal offences related to economic crime outlined per years and regional police directorates: in the 2011‒2015 period and in the first ten months of 2015 and 2016. Methods of committing fraud (in busi- frauds related to signing of different ness) are many and various. There are types of agreements on sale and purchase

53 Public Security Strategic Assesment

of goods (sale of goods with deferred organization, especially when their tar- payment arrangement, repayment by gets are excise goods, textile goods, tech- installments, sale based on samples and nical devices, motor vehicles, secondary models, sale according to a specification raw materials, food products etc. This etc.), taking over goods without prior area requires ‚‘group work‘‘ since there is agreement, cases that leave enough space a line of activities that have to be under- for abuses. As means of securing pay- taken- from illegal purchase of goods to ment, fraudsters mainly deposit blank transfer over the customs line, transport bill of exchange that is bank guarantees and storage, to resale. In addition, this whose realization is not possible since criminal activity is closely connected to there is no money on the account (very corruption. often there are only debts with amounts Detection of abuse of responsible per- expressed in millions). Therefore, fraud sons in a privatization process, along committing is characterized by failing to with responsible persons in agencies report insolvency of a company, which that estimate the value of capital, is one in such capacity is not able to take an ac- of priorities in the field of suppression of tive part in business life and flows. The economic crime. Among detected forms goods that fraudster takes from a ‚‘de- of abuse are prevalent the following two: ceived‘‘ subject are mainly quickly sold unlawful use of the property of a subject to other buyers- natural persons for cash of the privatization process (sale of prop- so that damaged legal person cannot be erty owned by subject of privatization returned goods, since there is no goods, contrary to established procedure and at nor money, since it has not been paid the price lower than the market price in on account of a legal entity in which order to ensure benefit to a buyer) and the fraudster is a responsible person. unlawful placing of (real estate) proper- Such fraudsters usually possess several ty of the subject of privatization under a companies, or if need arises establish or mortgage. This area also includes adop- buy another company, and after a short tion of unlawful decisions on change of period of running business that is after the amount of initial capital of the sub- gaining money, close them saddled with ject of privatization. huge debts and blocked accounts. The most frequently applied method of Criminal offences related to smuggling commitment of criminal acts related to and illegal trade pose a threat not only banking operations is granting loans to business of legal entities in national on the grounds of falsified documents. economy but even wider- their negative There are several ways: granting loan consequences go far beyond nation- to a person who meets loan eligibility al borders. Apart from direct financial conditions in the amount higher than damage, such criminal offences also permitted, granting loan to a person cause a number of other consequences who does not meet loan eligibility con- reflected in a loss of profit, price drop, ditions, non-compliance with bank poli- loss of reputation among customers cy related to granting of loans, spending and foreign investors, lack of competi- funds for unintended purposes etc. Po- tiveness and degradation of standards. lice detected a number of embezzlement Smuggling and illegal trade are charac- cases in bank operations that followed terized by international character and a common pattern including withhold-

54 Strategic Analysis ing entrusted assets for the purpose of counting and payment of tax on income conversion (theft) of such assets. This arising from sole business); evasion of type of fraud is kept secret by following accounting and payment of appropri- methods: falsifying/misrepresenting re- ate tax and contributions to salaries of cords on payments made from citizens‘ workers or other incomes; use of ‚‘phan- accounts, by use of fictitious pay-in and tom‘‘ firms (by use of company‘s seal pay-off orders, providing incorrect bal- and signed blank documents is ensured ance in daily cash balance etc. entrance of goods, for which are issued With reference to abuse pertaining to purchase invoices with fake calculation trade in civil engineering objects, such of value added tax which is not paid and criminal offences are qualified as frauds then preceding tax is deducted from the and abuse of office and committed in a liability when the goods are invoiced in way that seller sells one and same prop- legal form; such firms are also used to erty (mainly newly built residential issue factious documents to companies units) several times or when a contractor that misrepresent the true state of affairs in capacity of a seller takes advance pay- and provide false records on certain ment from a buyer and spends the mon- trade in goods between a phantom firm ey intended for construction of a facility and other companies). for private purposes. In terms of modus One of segments of economic crime is operandi, police recorded cases of abuse running business operations via „phan- in relation to registration of mortgage to tom“firms aimed at tax evasion and secure collateral claims, unlawfully is- money laundering. Nowadays, establish- sued permits for change of culture and ment and functioning of the phantom class of land, abuse in relation to public firms are alleviated by relatively easy and procurement, building without a build- cheap procedure of establishment of le- ing/ construction permit, exploitation of gal entities. Establishment of such firms sand from parcels owned by a legal enti- commenced in 2002. In the 2002- 2015 ty contrary to applicable legislation etc. period police filed 1.179 criminal reports In addition to the above mentioned, we against 2.505 persons for 4.163 criminal should mention detection of tax related offences related to business operations criminal offences in collaboration with of ‚‘phantom‘‘ firms. Police arrested and Tax police. Detected cases indicate sev- detained 605 persons. Total material eral methods of perpetration: evasion damage caused by this type of crime was of accounting and payment of appro- more than RSD 14 billion and obtained priate value added taxes and income property gain more than RSD 11 billion. taxes ( in line with a prior agreement, In the 2005- 2015 period police detected owners of sole trade business or sole 1.105 „phantom “firms and in the 2011- proprietorship business successively re- 2015 period 355. ‚‘Phantom‘‘ firms are ceived payments from other companies suitable for development of grey econ- in amounts up to several million dinars, omy and evasion of payment of liabili- without any appropriate legal grounds ties on the grounds of public revenues, i.e. without any actual business relation along with money laundering, and they and then withdrew money in cash with- also exert impact on increase of unloyal out any appropriate posting of entries to competition. accounting records and thus evaded ac-

55 Public Security Strategic Assesment

With reference to abuse related to trade ject to smuggling and illegal trade, are in excise goods, in the 2011- October mainly transported by commercial or 2016 period police carried out 2.951 passengers vehicles, over recent years seizures of excise goods and confiscated police observed increasing use of public 468.041 boxes of cigarettes and 354.920 transport means (buses, vans). In order kg of cut tobacco and tobacco in leaves5 to avoid control checks the mainly result They also seized 967.771 l of oil and in detection of illegal transport, offend- oil derivatives, 60.048 kg of coffee and ers turn to alternative roads and direc- 60.346 l of alcohol and alcoholic drinks. tions no matter whether they transport Tobacco and tobacco products are goods across the border or internally, on smuggled to Serbia mainly from Mon- domestic territory. The illegal trade, that tenegro, FYR Macedonia, Federation is sale of excise goods and other prod- of Bosnia and Herzegovina and area of ucts, is also performed on green mar- AP Kosovo and Metohija and this fact kets. There has been increase in seizures is supported by seizures in the area of of tobacco in Chinese ‚‘department‘‘ Novi Pazar, Prijepolje, Šabac etc. On the stores while sale of cigarettes and cut to- other hand, with reference to smuggling bacco including their delivery to home of these products (primarily cigarettes) address that is ‚‘express mail service‘‘ are from Serbia, the most attractive location also present. is border towards Romania. Apart from In order to ensure more efficient suppres- Romania, the products are smuggled to sion of tobacco smuggling, in May 2016 Bulgaria, Hungary and Croatia, and final was established the Working Group on destinations are Western Europe coun- fight against tobacco smuggling. Along tries. For instance, a price of a medium with the MOI representatives the Work- quality cigarette box in Serbia is about ing Group includes representatives of EUR 240 while in Western Europe coun- BIA, Tax administration, Customs Ad- tries is about EUR 500 and that clearly ministration, Tobacco Administration, indicates that this type of crime is a very Phytosanitary inspection, Market in- profitable activity. Although cigarettes spection, Agricultural inspection, Com- and other tobacco products, as well as munal Police and companies dealing all excise goods and goods that are sub- with production of tobacco and tobacco 5 The method used for statistical overview of products. The group accomplished ex- the quantities of the confiscated tobacco was traordinary results in coordinated ac- changed in the meantime. In the 2010- 2013 tions. Inter allia, in mid August 2016 was period were recorded cases of confiscation of detected an illegal plantation of tobacco raw tobacco. In 2014 cut tobacco and tobacco in leaves made one category while in 2015 they be- in Pančevo, on a 20 ha parcel of the land gun to be recorded as separate categories. including about 40 t of tobacco leaves.

1.5. Corruption

riminal acts including elements ized by clandestineness, changeability, of corruption pose a significant distribution, difficulties in detection and Csocial danger. They are character- presenting evidence, perfidiousness of

56 Strategic Analysis perpetrators, along with high diversity than 7 000 criminal reports against more of forms. In the assessed five year period than 12 000 persons- their structure pre- (2011- 2015) police recorded more than dominantly comprised responsible per- 17 000 detected criminal acts including sons of companies (5.961) and workers elements of corruption and filed more of public enterprises (1.177)..

Picture 25 ‒ Overall number of corruption cases: in the 2011‒2015 period and in the first ten month of 2015 and 2016. Bearing in mind that corruption appears ue public procurements etc.); unlawful in all areas of social life, there is a whole acknowledgment of a certain status to range of different forms that offenders applicants (grant of loan on the grounds apply in perpetration of corruption relat- of National investment plan, right on ac- ed cases. What is common to all areas of quisition and provision of a status of an social life and/or business is that there are invalided soldier, abuse in management of two levels on which corruption occurs. residential needs, right to receive and use Firs level refers to corruption between two means granted as a loan for beginners in physical or legal entities (e.g. a doctor who business (start-up), right to receive disa- receives bribe to provide certain medical bility pension etc); abuse related to use of service/intervention) and second refers a land (illicit lease of land, illicit issuance to corruption within a subject itself (e.g. of a decision on approval of construction embezzlement of an employee in a public of residential and other facilities etc); re- enterprise). ceiving and giving bribe (aimed at illegal In the work of the state authorities, bodies gain from tax reliefs, giving false state- of territorial autonomous provinces and ment, issuance of documents on civil- le- local self-government, recorded forms gal status etc). of perpetration of this criminal offenc- The most frequent abuse including el- es include: abuse in public procurement ements of corruption to the detriment procedures (failure to invite suppliers to of public enterprises comprised: public submit bids to supply products or servic- procurements (purchase at prices that are es, failure to notify unsuccessful bidders, pretty higher than those on the market, renting business premises without prior purchase of goods that doesn’t meet pre- public bidding process, procurement of scribed standards, implementation of sev- goods of inappropriate quality, unlawful eral public procurements related to small favoring one supplier over another, un- value of procurement instead of invitation lawful implementation of procurement to tender, assigning works to a person that process related to a number of small val- doesn’t meet prescribed conditions etc.);

57 Public Security Strategic Assesment

use of the money belonging to a public two goals that are set to be accomplished: enterprise ( unlawful appropriation of the firstly, performing medical checks, opera- money gained by collection of fines, mon- tions, admission to treatment and/ or en- ey from a treasury, money paid to a com- sure privileges in the course of treatment; pany’s account for other purposes); illicit secondly, preparation i.e. verification actions in signing contracts and applica- of forged medical document- sanitary tion of discretionary authority ( payment booklet, discharge note etc. Illicit actions of unfinished works or paying full price are also observed in procedures of public for partially completed works, to obtain procurement of equipment and drugs in- benefit for the company) etc. tended for medical purposes, in relation With reference to the structure of perpe- to the use of the resources of a health care trators of the criminal offences including institution, unlawful increase of income, elements of corruption, responsible per- appropriation of the fundamental means sons of companies made up more than of work, ensuring illicit benefit for indi- one third. Corruption in business enti- viduals or other business entities through ties comprised: various forms of abuse contracts with a healthcare institution etc. in relation to the company property use, In the work of educational institutions, most often including mortgage without most often detected cases of corruption the consent of the shareholders; abuse in were reflected in accepting/ receiving public procurement procedures, various bribe by a teacher/ professor to correct forms of abuse reflected in holding several student’s grades i.e. to pass exam (resit). functions ( most often being a responsible There were also cases of abuse in proce- person in a private and social company); dures of public procurement of goods payment of fictitious services to other intended for school purposes along with business entities ( to ensure benefit for cases of bribery by persons who wished to those entities); spending funds allocated get employment with an educational insti- from the budget for unintended purposes tution, abuses in providing rooms in stu- and so on. dents’ campuses, unlawful appropriation Corruption in the field of judiciary and of money earmarked in working process, prosecution occurs, inter allia, in out-of- abuse in calculation and payment of per- court settlement/ resolution of legal dis- sonal incomes etc. putes regarding permission to transfer In addition, there is a whole range of forms rights for use of urban development land, used for committing criminal offences in rendering decisions, ensuring criminal- including elements of corruption on the legal protection, in postponing execution border, starting with the most common of punishment, enabling evasion of pay- accepting and giving bribe to avoid con- ment of fines, during expert evaluation of trol procedure i.e. to ensure some goods, a facility, etc. to ensure clearance of certain goods with- The most common modus operandi in out physical presence or clearance at low- committing criminal offences including er rates, to the more complex operations elements of corruption in the work of including verification of a fictitious exit health care institutions is requesting or from the country by a car loaded with accepting of a financial advantage ( brib- goods, although the goods remained in ery) by a health care worker ( mainly phy- Serbia with the intention to be sold on the sician). In that regard, we can emphasize black market.

58 Strategic Analysis

1.6. Cybercrime

n the 2011- 2015 period on the ter- property, 2 700 criminal offences of for- ritory of the Republic of Serbia were gery and misuse of payment cards, 502 detected 3.920 cybercrime offences criminal offences of unauthorized use of Iand police filed criminal charges against another’s business name, 86 criminal of- 1.859 persons. Among detected cyber- fences of showing, obtaining and being crime offences were 82 criminal offences in possession of pornographic material against security of computer data, 530 and exploitation of a juvenile for por- criminal offences against intellectual nography etc.

Picture 26 ‒ overall number of cybercrime offences:In the 2011‒2015 period and in the first ten month of 2015 and 2016. In January- October 2016 police detect- gery and misuse of payment cards, 150 ed 478 cybercrime offences that is 6% criminal offences of unauthorized use less than in the same period of the pre- of another’s business name, 29 showing, vious year. They comprised 13 criminal obtaining and being in possession of offences against safety of computer data, pornographic material and exploitation 33 criminal offences against intellectual of a juvenile for pornography etc.. property, 242 criminal offences of for-

1.6.1. Internet fraud

Internet frauds (online scam) mainly oc- There are also so called dating frauds cur in different online auction schemes when a fraudster contacts a victim, starts or advertising sites. A fraudster posts a communication and develops emotion- fraudulent ad to a website used for ad- al relationship and partnership. After vertising sale of different goods (vehicles, giving misleading information to the agricultural machines, mobile phones, victim, the fraudster asks the victim to watches etc). An interested buyer (vic- get married, for instance and convinces tim) places an order and sends a deposit the victim to make payment of a certain or full payment via wire transfer to initi- amount of money to cover administra- ate the ‘’shipping process’’. The fraudster, tive costs (taxes, court costs, lawyer’s fees who posted a false ad, accepts payment, etc). The similar scheme is applied when takes the funds and makes a victim be- fraudsters contact victims and provide lieve that will receive ordered goods. them misleading information that a rich

59 Public Security Strategic Assesment

distant cousin died abroad and the vic- scams imitate original email addresses tim is, allegedly, in line to receive a huge of executives. In few cases a cyber crim- inheritance. The victim is asked to cov- inal has successfully hacked of spoofed er the costs of the money transfer (from the CEO’s email address. In such cases 10% to 20%). There is also a frequent compromised messages are even more combination of the two above mentioned dangerous since it is very difficult to -no scams- a victim falls in love with a fraud- tice difference between the addresses. In ster, an online dating romance scammer such criminal cases fraudsters are thor- who asks her to open an account and oughly acquainted with the manner an withdraw a sum of money for him since executive communicates with his em- he (partner) is in a state where, allegedly, ployees and use that pattern to adjust is not possible to withdraw money. We their style of communication. will provide an example for illustration The number of business entities attacked purposes only: a fraudster impersonates by BEC is increasing. Fraudsters intercept a girl whose parents died in a war and electronic messages that business enti- whose father was a high official. She -al ties from Serbia exchange with their for- legedly has some funds on an account eign business partners. Then they send and the funds can be withdrawn only in a false message by common channel of Europe. She offers to transfer the funds communication (upon gaining access to to a victim’s account and promises to email server) or through a false account come to Serbia and get married to our that looks similar to or the same like the national. He is only required to pay fees account of the company, although there and other costs. Payments are mainly are certain letters or numbers changed. made via ‘’Western Union’’ and ‘’Money For instance, if in account pal@paѕ.com Gram’’ money transfer services. Desti- letter „l“ (Latin, caps off) is replaced by nations to which money is transferred number 1, address is almost identical – are mainly African countries along with pa1@paѕ.com. Such modifications are Great Britain, Spain and so on. hardly noticeable when communication On the territory of the Republic of Ser- with partners is maintained on daily ba- bia are frequent frauds to the detriment sis. Fraudsters pretend to be represent- of legal persons known as business email atives of a company that a business en- compromise attacks (BEC) and ransom- tity from Serbia cooperates with and by ware. There are also CEO frauds in which use of compromised messages deceive a fraudster, cyber criminal, imperson- them to ensure that business entities pay ates an executive (CEO, chief, leader or owners of accounts (criminals) money director) and send emails in that capaci- to their own detriment. Since money is ty instructing employees in business en- transferred electronically, fraudsters can tities to transfer funds to an account that withdraw money quickly, even within the cyber criminal owns. Using author- 24 hours. In the meantime, a damaged ity of an executive and social engineer- company believes that it has made paying, fraudsters create messages that look ment to a foreign company while, on the so authentic and by their style resemble other hand, a foreign company is wait- real situation so that employees have no ing for payment. The parties realize that doubts about the need to make required they have been deceived only after their payment. Email addresses used in such contact with a foreign company, usually

60 Strategic Analysis

3–6 working days later, and that period designed to infiltrate and damage com- is sufficient for fraudsters to withdraw puters without the users consent) that money abroad. Such scams mostly affect are known as ransom wares. They en- small and medium companies on the crypt electronic data on computers of territory of the Republic of Serbia. damaged parties and prevent access to In the course of 2015 and 2016 com- the system. To restore files and for de- puters of damaged business entities and cryption, a victim is required to pay ran- citizens of the Republic of Serbia were som in some of virtual currencies (e.g. targets of malwares (malicious software bit coin).

Picture 27 ‒ Warning related to locking of the user’s files In the Republic of Serbia, during 2015 ment cards of foreign nationals misused and 2016 were recorded cases of misuse by perpetrators from the territory of the of electronic data on payment cards via Republic of Serbia. Such fraudsters also the Internet (a card not present fraud). use new information on vulnerabilities of Fraudsters obtained information via an electronic tracking system and misuse carding forums and used them for pur- ICT to illegally acquire property gain. Po- chase of expensive goods over the In- lice worldwide records cases of misuse of ternet. The frauds mainly included pay- e-wallets, contactless payment and so on.

1.6.2. Computer data security

Among the most frequent criminal of- ic data processing; creating and introduc- fences against security of computer data ing of computer viruses; computer frauds are: unauthorized access to a protected and computer sabotage. computer, computer network or electron-

61 Public Security Strategic Assesment

Perpetrators of the above mentioned a wide range of possible misuses in case of criminal offences have specific technique compromised protection and platforms. knowledge. They increasingly use spe- Bring Your Own Device – BYOD concept cialized forums in which they exchange enables an employee to bring his/her own knowledge and find co-perpetrators along portable device, such as a lap top, tablet with tools for perpetration of the crime. A and mobile phone and use them at of- certain number of criminal offences are fice/working place for business purposes. committed by employees who are capable The objective of this increasingly popular to inflict damage to computer data and concept is higher productivity and flexi- programs of a company since they are well bility of the personnel. But this concept aware of the modus operandi. Even new also contains a risk due to a fact that the technologies are being misused, including system in which employees bring their Internet of Things – IoT which is a system. own devices and connect them to a cor- It enables particularly intensive attacks in porative network requires adequate secu- which interrelated devices infected with a rity measures. Security related omissions virus appear as a part of DDOS network may increase the risk of criminal offences New technologies, such as the Internet committed against corporative environ- of Things – IoT and Cloud Computing, ment in which a device is found and that and a practice of bringing own devices provides open possibilities for commit- to a working place (BYOD), are increas- ting criminal offences to the detriment of ingly present and perpetrators of criminal business entities. offences all over the world are becoming Every year Advance Persistent Threat – aware of their advantage. Due to a num- APT increasingly affects business entities ber of insufficiently protected devices in- worldwide. According to estimations, it is terrelated within the IoT, there is a danger expected that focus of threats will not be of criminal offences against security of only on persistent threats but the perpe- computer data both on the devices and trators of such criminal offences will cre- with the help of the devices that might ap- ate even resistant threats or malicious pro- pear as a part of botnet networks. Misuse grams without files and doing so reduce of the technology increases intensity and or hide traces in an infected system and range of attacks along with caused dam- avoid their detection. age. Cloud Computing is also risky due to

1.6.3. Sexual exploitation of juveniles for pornography on the Internet

erpetrators of criminal offences of juveniles. Illegal audio-visual materi- related to sexual exploitation of ju- al is obtained through P2P network by venile for pornographic purposes typing a certain term, searching for a Pon the Internet use networks P2P (Peer particular content, finding and down- to Peer) in order to obtain and/or ex- loading the content and its storage to a change illegal audio-visual footage and computer memory. Such content can be material created by sexual exploitation shared with other perpetrators of crimi-

62 Strategic Analysis nal offences worldwide who, at the same inal in Serbia is downloading and whose time, look for the material that the crim- share is allowed within the network.

Picture 28 ‒ False profile of a pedophile from Ćuprija, Republic of Serbia Source: http://www.rts.rs/page/stories/ci/story/134/hronika/2530707/akcija- armagedon-muskarac-preko-fejsbuka-upoznavao-maloletnike.html In fewer cases perpetrators of such crim- trust and afterwards ask the child to per- inal offences use different forums to ex- form certain action (to take a picture of a change aforementioned illicit material certain part of the body or show intimate and to find co-perpetrators. Social net- parts of the body online etc). The footage works are also used for such purposes. and material is later used for blackmail- Apart from downloading, possession ing so that perpetration of the criminal and exchange of material created by offences could be extended. Sometimes sexual exploitation of juveniles for por- these fraudsters transfer their commu- nography purposes, social networks are nication from social networks to other also used for establishing contacts with types of communication technology (e.g. juveniles, attracting their attention and VoIP), claiming that they wish to estab- gaining their trust. Fraudsters mainly use lish more intimate contact and watch false profiles that are adjusted to the age particular actions performed by the vic- and interests of the minors. The profiles tim in real time (e.g. by web-camera). are created by uploading photos or whole Apart from shooting and blackmailing, identity of other persons, taking care of fraudsters use communication over so- what the victim likes. Some fraudsters cial networks and other means to lure the create several false profiles in order to victim, who was previously mislead and learn more about the victim. Relying on deceived, to come to a certain location a child’s lack of experience, they establish with a hidden intention to commit crim- contact with the child and gain his/her inal offences against sexual freedoms.

63 Public Security Strategic Assesment

1.6.4. Criminal offences against copyright and other related rights

Information technology progress con- industrial copyright on the territory of tributes to continuous increase of crimi- the Republic of Serbia, fraudsters mainly nal offences against copyright and other use the Internet for sale of falsified phar- related rights. The targets of „counter- maceutical products, clothes of different feiting“are not only works created by famous designers and brands etc. foreign authors but the works created by domestic authors, too. The huge problem is recognized in illegal copies of the latest movies that significantly reduce the number of cinema goers and copies of domestic series or movies whose production is often subsidized by the state. For that reason they do not realize foreseen profit and revenue in the state budget and copyright holders are often deprived of economic gain from sale and use of their copyright. Certain concrete activities have been undertaken in that area and owners of certain auction websites agreed not to post on their websites any ad pertaining to sale of illegal copies of movies, music, games, software and other copyrights. Instead of that they Picture 29 ‒ Counterfeited material enable sale of original products in elec- seized in the Republic of Serbia tronic form (CDs). With reference to

1.6.5. Security threat on the Internet

oth common citizens and public lated to emails, social networks, forums officials’ security is endangered by and comments below the texts released threat of attack against the life or in electronic media. Perpetrators tend Bbody of such persons or a person close to make detection and clearance of such to them. Whoever commits such crim- criminal offences more difficult by use of inal offences relies on communication services that, according to their opinion, means available on the Internet and ensure privacy and anonymity of data. most often on free of charge services re-

64 Strategic Analysis

1.6.6. Теrrorism and violent extremism that leads to terrorism

ith reference to terrorism and rorism and violent extremism that leads violent extremism that leads to terrorism are connected to perpetra- to terrorism, information- tion of criminal offences related unau- Wcommunication technology is misused thorized access to protected computers, for the purpose of recruitment of new computer networks and electronic pro- followers, provision of instructions for cessing of data (for instance, deface- perpetration of criminal offences etc. ment of targeted internet websites) and Such criminals use websites, forums, prevention and restriction of access and social networks and other means on the electronic processing of computer data Internet to exchange and share multime- ( for instance, DDOS attacks with the dia content. The same means are used use of CaaS service). Virtual currencies, for communication and concealment of such as bit coin, are used to obtain illegal identity as well as to spread ideological property gain that is further used for fi- propaganda. The most often used are nancing of terrorist activities. VoIP services and protected forums. Ter-

Picture 30 ‒ An Islamic State propaganda vide entitled „Honor is in Jihad: A Mes- sage to the people of the Balkans“, released by ISIS on the Internet in June 2015

1.7. Environmental crime

nvironmental crime comprises all herbs, especially rare species thereof ille- actions that lead to the pollution gal trafficking in substances that destroy of water, air and soil, jeopardize ozone layer; illegal trafficking in dan- Elife and health of human beings and de- gerous and toxic waste; destruction and stroy flora and fauna. Its manifestations devastation of forests and trafficking in are numerous: illegal emission of sub- the woods; illicit exploitation and de- stances into air, water or soil; smuggling struction of fishing stock etc. and illegal trafficking in animals and

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Picture 31 ‒ Overall number of environmental crime related offences in the 2011‒2015 period Given the seriousness of its consequenc- awareness of the danger it poses are still es, environmental crime calls for due at- insufficiently developed. tention. It is less known that this type of In the reported five year period on the crime nowadays exists in the form of or- territory of the Republic of Serbia were ganized, transnational and trans-border detected and reported 5.173 environ- crime. It poses one of the increasingly mental crime related criminal offences growing areas of crime since it is char- that account for 1% of the overall crime acterized by generation of a huge profit. detected in the reported period. A bit The risk of detection is low since inter- higher rate of detected and reported cas- national mechanisms for suppression es of environmental crime was observed o environmental crime, in addition to in the 2013- 2015 period.

Picture 32 ‒ Overall number of criminal offences against the environment in the first ten months of 2015 and 2016 The most of environmental crime relating game (380 or 7, 3%) and poaching ed criminal offences was detected and fish (100 or 2%). reported on the area of Zaječar Police Police was reported five cases of environ- Directorate (PD) (569), Belgrade PD mental pollution, three cases of failure (510), Novi Sad PD (369) and Pirot PD to undertake environmental protection (311). In terms of structure of environ- measures, eight cases of damaging the mental crime, it mostly comprises forest environment etc and as a result police theft (4.022 or 78%), killing and wanton filed reports against 4.513 persons that cruelty to animals (551 or 11%), poach- are 4.402 adults and 116 minors and 61

66 Strategic Analysis foreign citizens. There were similar ten- the forest theft is timber used for heating dencies in the period January- October and technical woods of different quality. 2016 during which were detected and re- Detected cases indicated that in public ported 735 criminal offences against the forests managed by public enterprise ‘’Sr- environment that made up 1% of all re- bijašume’’ more than 12.000 cubic meters ported criminal offences. The structure of timber is illegally cut on annual level. of criminal offences is also similar-the Such illicit actions are particularly detri- majority of crimes related to forest theft, mental to national parks that comprise killing and wanton cruelty to animals noble species of trees. Protection of pri- and poaching fish. vate run forests is more complex. Forest theft, as the most represented Their owners mainly live in cities or criminal offences against the environ- abroad and do not have organized forest ment, has far reaching consequences. ranger’s service. Moreover, some of them With reference to forest belts it has neg- cut their own forests without any plan to ative influence on air cleaning and main- gain profit. Majority of forest thefts is not tenance of atmosphere. Uncontrolled fell even recorded since their owners have of trees in a forest endangers survival of moved to other parts of Serbia. Illicit diverse and numerous herbal and animal cutting of trees is present throughout the species while in certain areas it might lead year and most prevalent in March- June to occurrence of slides. Bearing in mind and September- November. that an average tree needs to grow up to Illegal cutting of trees is particularly fre- 40 years to be ready for cutting, it is clear quent in the public lumber camps along that irresponsible behavior toward forests the administrative line with AP Kosovo will affect future generations. The value of and Metohija and Ground Security Zone, illegally cut trees in state forests of Serbia where is difficult to safeguard forests. -To is estimated to about EUR 250.000 on an- tal quantity of illegally cut trees in that nual level while in private run forests the 6 part of Serbia on annual level is 5.463 cu- value is even ten times higher. bic meters and makes up 46% of the total The total forest area in Serbia is 2,252,000 quantity of the trees stolen in the public hа and it is considered to be a middle-for- forests of Serbia. According to informa- ested country. State forests are managed tion provided by Sector for forestry and by public enterprises which are organized environmental protection of the PE Srbi- on five levels, depending on the territory jašume, in the 1999- 2015 period in the they cover- company, lumber camp, forest area of the Ground Security Zone was il- management, location and area. The low- legally cut 426.662,98 cubic meters (most est level is observed by forest rangers. The in the area of Leskovac and Kuršumlija). majority of illegal activities taking place In addition to immense material dam- in public forests relate to forest thefts, age, there is a security threat. Namely, devastation of forests and illegal hunting. organized groups armed with automatic Forest theft offences are mainly commit- and other weapon arrive from the area of ted by local community in public woods Kosovo and Metohija. The best illustra- near their settlements (villages or cities) tion of the volume of the potential danger or in smaller areas surrounded with a is murder of a gendarme in Orlovac, mu- private property. The subject matter of nicipality Kuršumlija in 2014.

6 ЈП „Србија шуме“

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Illegal fishing leads to a range of environ- Industrial plants which don’t take appro- mental consequences, endangers mainte- priate protective measures also pollute nance of eco-system and jeopardizes se- and damage the environment- by sewage, curity of people and food. Fishing stock hard metals, oils and other toxic materi- in Serbia comprises 94 species while 1/3 al drained into rivers. Uncontrolled pol- of the total number is attractive to fisher- lution of river flows poses a danger to men.7 It means that illegal fishing poses a health of citizens and causes catastrophic serious threat to survival of a number of environmental situation. fish species in Serbia. Illegal fishing often From all aforementioned facts we may involves various banned resources, such notice that protection and preservation as explosive and aggregates generating of the environment, as well as protection power. A particular problem is present of biologically diverse live organisms in in the use of pesticides, which are very Serbia, are crucial issues that call for due much used in rural areas and mountain attention. Mechanisms of response to brooks/ rivers during summer months such illegal activities are under the com- and low water level periods. petence of several state authorities, insti- 7 mwww.pravnazastitazivotinja.com tutions and companies.

68 2. TERRORISM AND EXTREMISMStrategic Analysis

2.1. Теrrorism

errorism poses one of the biggest ical situation, i.e. expansion of terrorist threats to global, regional and na- organizations from the Middle East and tional security. The Republic of North Africa and tendency of its spread- TSerbia might become a target of terror- ing to other parts of the world and, ist activities both directly and by use of therefore, the Balkans. its territory for transit, preparation and Inflow of a large number of migrants execution of terrorist attacks in other from the area of FYR Macedonia and countries. Republic of Bulgaria, so called Balkan Security on the territory of the Republic Route, might be misused by terrorist- of Serbia is currently most endangered both by individuals and terrorist groups by nationalistic and extreme activities and organizations. Among the migrants of individuals and groups. These activ- who travel mainly from the Middle East ities include elements that in the forth- and North Africa towards Western Eu- coming period might serve as a basis for rope can be infiltrated extremists or all types of terrorist activities. In that terrorists, while we should not entirely regard, the biggest challenge lies in the exclude the possibility that their final threat from Islamism and ethnically mo- destination (or at least for some of them) tivated terrorism. Danger from terror- is Serbia. ism constantly exists on the area of the Among possible consequences of ter- Ground security zone, in spite of the fact rorism to the security of the Republic of that in the 2014‒2016 period there were Serbia is threat to its territorial integrity, no records on terrorist attacks (the last threat to life of its citizens and materi- attack was recorded in 2013). Howev- al property, causing fear and unease of er, the fact that terrorist activities have its citizens, ruining the reputation of the been present in that area since its estab- Republic of Serbia, dismantling the rule lishment (10the June 1999) supports the of law and creation of crisis, social divi- forecast that such security threats might sion and political instability. be expected in the forthcoming period. A particular security risk arising from terrorism is caused by global geopolit-

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2.2. Extremism

part from terrorism, a signifi- disruption of public peace and order to cant threat to the security of the a large extent, violating religious rights Republic of Serbia is posed by and fundamental human freedoms, Aextremism which is reflected in the ide- causing instable climate for economic in- ology of racism, totalitarianism, extreme vestments, causing public incidents, dis- national and religious chauvinism and order at public events, physical attacks fanaticism, discrimination of minority on their opponents, as well as growth in groups, extreme right and left orient- the number of committed criminal of- ed groups, along with extreme regional fences of other type. particularism and separatism and intol- The overall situation in relation to the erance and exclusivity based on gender public peace and order situation in the and sex issues. Followers of the above observed period can be assessed as sta- mentioned ideologies- individuals, in- ble. By professional, optimal perfor- formal groups or organizations, have mance and use of own capacities, in demonstrated their readiness to use vi- cooperation with relevant state author- olence and cruelest methods and means ities, police members continuously un- to achieve certain ideological and qua- dertake measures and actions to ensure si-political goals. and maintain stable situation in terms of Among possible consequences of ex- public peace and order. tremism to the security of the Republic of Serbia are criminal offences jeopardizing its constitutional order and security and freedoms and rights of a man and citizen, instigating racial, national and religious hatred and intolerance, causing

70 3. PUBLIC PEACE AND ORDERStrategic Analysis

3.1. Public assemblies – security threats

n the 2011- 2015 period were organ- public assemblies that is 1/5 less than in ized and held 305.840 8 public assem- the same period of the previous year. blies (about 5.000 per month) out of Owing to maximum engagement of Iwhich 242.532 (about 80%) were related available capacities of police and other to sports events. The remaining 63.309 lines of work of the Ministry of Interior, assemblies or 20% of the total number in the Republic of Serbia were held three were political, religious, syndicate, cul- largest, traditionally international music tural and entertainment events/ assem- festivals: „ЕXIТ“ at the Petrovaradin For- blies because of which, during sporadic tress in the city of Novi Sad, „Dragačevski incidents or individual cases of violation sabor Trubača“ (Guča Trumpet Festival) of public peace and order police arrested in Guča and „Bееr Fest“ in Belgrade. In 428 persons and 135 persons were de- relation to the security aspects, there are tained. Criminal charges were filed for highlighted „Pride Parade “and events 185 criminal offences and requests for preceding that gathering organized misdemeanor proceedings were initi- within the ‘’Pride Week“, during which ated for 259 misdemeanors. There were at different locations and with the use of 960 unreported public assemblies, 205 different content were presented prob- were halted and 104 were forbidden. lems and position of LGBT population. The organizers who failed to undertake Since 2011, according to the results of adequate measures to maintain public security assessment „Pride parade“has peace and order and who, in spite of a been banned three times and twice held. ban, tried to hold the public assembly or Namely, in 2011 was rendered an offi- didn’t comply with police warning and cial decision on ban on organization of therefore didn’t invite the participants of the „Pride parade“ and additional four the public assembly to disperse but con- public assemblies related to the „Pride tinued to violate public peace and order, parade“ and in 2012 was issued a ban on faced with motions for misdemeanor organization of the „Pride parade“ and procedure which were initiated for 738 additional five public assemblies and in misdemeanors in compliance with the 9 2013 was issued ban on the „Pride pa- Public Assembly Law . In the period rade“ and additional 11 public assem- January- October 2016 were held 43.345 blies. However, in 2014 and 2015, in 8 Information from annual reports on public se- spite of all present security threats, the curity situation and work of the MOI. assembly was held and went without se- 9 Law on public assemblies of the citizens was rious incidents while in 2015, for the first adopted on 26th of January 2016.

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time, was held a public gathering „Pride tent authorities and institutions in Bel- of transgender people“, which also went grade, by protest drive of tractors, to ex- without incidents. press their dissatisfaction with proposed During the reported period was record- amendments to the Law on agricultural ed a number of successfully realized land. visits of foreign high officials/ foreign Within the assessed period, security risk delegations and other manifestations, was present in politically motivated pub- including the following: lic assemblies, protests following deci- In front of the head offices of the state -au sions rendered by the appellate court of thorities were held numerous events dur- the International Criminal Tribunal for ing which citizens tried to draw attention the former Yugoslavia in the Hague, as- of the public and relevant institutions on semblies organized in relation to estab- their rights guaranteed by law, including lishment of integrated crossings with the right to income, social security and so- area of Kosovo and Metohija, protests cial program, working conditions, lower organized in relation to negotiations selling price of shares, need for revision with Pristine interim administration, of the privatization agreement, requests protests in relation to local elections in for change of company business policy, the area of Kosovo and Metohija in 2013 amendments to legislation regulating etc. performance of certain activities etc. Ag- Apart from the aforementioned assem- ricultural producers expressed their dis- blies, police recorded 3.783 strikes, out satisfaction with the method of subsidiz- of which 511 developed into protest of ing and low purchase price of agricultural the employees that took place outside products and policy on import of foreign the factory i.e. working place. In 113 products of the same type. such cases was imposed partial or com- During aforementioned protests police plete blockage of traffic lines. In addi- recorded 621 case of traffic jams where- tion to their fundamental rights such by in addition to motorways and region- as payment of income that was late for al ways in 10 cases was blocked interna- several months and even years, connect- tional railway traffic and in 4 cases was ing length of service and payment of blocked traffic on highway/state roads. accompanying contributions for man- The majority of blockades were reported datory pension and disability insurance in late August and early September 2013 and health insurance, the employees in the course of protests organized by required cessation of illicit and illegal agricultural laborers from the area of AP actions and prevention of illegal alien- Vojvodina, Mačva and Braničevo dis- ation of property, corruption and ille- trict, who blocked ways by their tractors gal appropriation. That period was also and agricultural machines. In addition, featured by a strike of lawyers initiated in November 2015 several dozens of ag- on the basis of allegedly discriminatory ricultural laborers from several places provisions of the Law on notaries. in AP Vojvodina tried to reach compe-

72 Strategic Analysis

3.2. Sports events – security threats

uring the reported period there polo team at the 2015 World Aquatics were numerous successfully Championship held in Kazan, Russia. delivered international sports According to available data, there were Devents in the Republic of Serbia- in or- 242.532 sporting events (on average ganization of the Serbian Handball Fed- 48.500 annually) during which police eration and European Handball Federa- recorded 434 cases of violation of pub- tion in January 2012 was held European lic peace and order (before– 31, during Men’s Handball Championship and in – 295, after – 108). In the course of those December 2012 European Women’s sporting events 75 persons (including Handball Championship ( at four lo- one police officer) sustained severe bod- cations: Belgrade, Novi Sad, Niš and ily injuries and 567 (152 police officers) Vršac). Both championships went well sustained light bodily injuries. Police in the spirit of sports, in spite of inci- filed criminal reports against 2.484 per- dents that took place outside the sports sons in relation to 1.503 criminal of- fields. In early 2016 in „Kombank Are- fences prescribed by Article 344/а of the na“in Belgrade was held 32nd LEN Eu- Criminal Code of the Republic of Serbia ropean Water Polo Championships for in addition to other 276 criminal offenc- Men and Women and 10th European es including 65 criminal offences related Futsal Championship under the auspic- to drugs and 21 criminal offences related es of UEFA. to weapons. Motions for misdemeanor Because of their size and number of procedure were initiated for 1.015 mis- participants we should hereby mention demeanors in compliance with the Ar- public gatherings organized to welcome ticle 21 of the Law on prevention of vi- and greet our athletes who won prestig- olence and misbehavior at sports events, ious medals in international sporting 761 misdemeanors prescribed by Article events. When Serbia won their first ever 23 of the same Law and 1.636 misde- FIFA U-20 World Cup title in New Zea- meanors on the grounds of the provi- land 2015, on 22nd June 2015 about 25 sions prescribed by the Law on public 000 citizens gathered in front of the Bel- peace and order. grade City Assembly to greet U-20 football world champions. Another similar According to statistics, excluding exces- ceremony was organized on 29th June sive use of the pyrotechnic devices, the 2015 in front of the National Assembly most stable situation, in terms of securi- when about 8 500 citizens gathered to ty at sporting events was in 2014-2015. greet Serbian women’s national basket- Apart from the above mentioned, in the ball team who won gold medal at 2015 events occurring outside the sports field European Women Basketball Champi- and which cannot be brought into rela- onship, commonly called Euro Basket tion with sporting events, 17 leaders and Women. Again, about 7 000 citizens members of supporters’ groups lost their gathered in front of the House of the Na- lives and police recorded 158 security tional Assembly to celebrate gold medal related events participated by supporters won by the Serbia men’s national water and fans carrying their symbols.

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Picture 33 ‒ Number of criminal offences referred to in Article 344а of the Criminal Code and articles 21 and 23 of the Law on Prevention of Violence at Sports Events in the Republic of Serbia in the 2011-2015 period

3.3. School security

If we take into consideration suppression of negative events in school the period ranging from the environment along with recommen- beginning of the school year dations addressed to teaching staff to О2010/2011 to the end of the school year find new models aimed at suppression 2014/2015, in schools and their immedi- of school violence. Violent behavior in- ate environment, on annual level, were volves extremely brutal and humiliating registered 5.057 school security relat- treatment amongst pupils/students, pu- ed events (1.555 criminal offences, 792 pils’ aggressive behavior towards their misdemeanors and 2.709 other events) teachers and police officers, inappropri- and in 2.150 cases work was partially or ate teacher pupil relation and interfer- completely discontinued. ence of certain parents in pupils’ con- Bearing in mind that school work cal- flicts clearly indicate that these problems endar envisages 180 working days, it is have to be considered in a wider social estimated that on daily basis there were context. Analysis of certain, individual recorded 43 criminal offences, 22 mis- events indicates that there is a decreas- demeanors and 75 other events (traffic ing level of the peer’s tolerance so that accidents including pupils, anonymous the most trivial events can serve as a phone calls claiming an explosive de- motif that triggers commitment of the vice was laid, writing graffiti on school most serious forms of unlawful behav- facilities and other incidents and events ior with grave consequences. Moreover, which do not contain elements of crim- in the course of different forms of vio- inal offences and misdemeanors but lent behavior 255 pupils suffered serious pose a security threat). Within school bodily harm and 1.792 light bodily in- facilities (classrooms, corridors, injuries. In the same period, police found door sports arena, sanitary rooms and 22 pieces of firearms and 390 other items other) were committed 5.878 or 69% suitable to inflict injuries (knives, base- of criminal offences and 2.880 or 71% ball bats, metal bars etc) held by pupils. misdemeanors, that can be brought into The number of the cases (217) in which context of police activities focused on drugs were found in school environ-

74 Strategic Analysis ment is mainly increasing and the ma- year 2013/2014 (88) and school year jor increase was recorded in the school 2014/2015 (76).

Picture 34 ‒ Structure of school security events in the 2011-2015 period

3.4. Violation of public peace and order olice recorded 224.471 offences dure. Because of noncompliance with against public peace and order 10. the decision rendered by municipality More than 1/3 of the total num- authorities regarding working hours of Pber of offences was committed on streets hospitality business facilities police filed and squares, 1/5 in residential units and 13.468 reports on the grounds of which others in hospitality business while the inspection services and other state au- number of offences recorded in other thorities filed 4.026 motions for initia- places (bus and railway stations, green tion of misdemeanor procedure and the markets etc) was almost negligible. In authorities banned work of 83 hospital- addition, the majority of offences were ity business facilities. Police recorded committed in the period between 10:00 6.639 criminal offences committed in p.m. and 06:00 a.m. hospitality business facilities and 29.191 On monthly basis there were, on aver- misdemeanors prescribed by the Law on age, 650 actions of increased control of public peace and order and 499 misde- hospitality business facilities with a par- meanors referred to under Article 35 of ticular focus on the prohibition of sale the Law on weapons and ammunition. of alcoholic drinks to the minors and as a result, there were 1 740 requests filed for initiation of misdemeanor proce-

10 New Law on Public Peace and Order was adopted on 26ht January 2016. It provides quality and comprehensive definition of relevant terms, legal institutes and features of misdemeanors and prescribes featutres of new misdemeanors.

75 Public Security Strategic Assesment

Picture 35 ‒ Violation of public peace and order in hospitality business facilities in the 2011‒2015 period Almost one quarter of the criminal of- carried out by regional police directo- fences committed in hospitality business rates with a focus on the inspection of facilities (1.571 or about 24%) referred persons, objects and traffic means and to the criminal offences against life and control of hospitality business facilities. limb. They included: 20 cases of aggra- Police carried out necessary actions re- vated murder and murder, 32 cases of garding 1.252 anonymous phone calls attempted aggravated murder and 201 claiming an explosive device was laid, case of attempted murder, 568 crim- out of which 752 or about 60% per- inal offences of severe bodily injuries tained to school facilities, 181 or 15% and 694 cases of light bodily injuries, pertained to judiciary offices, 47 or 4% 77 criminal offences of brawling and 59 pertained to bridges and the remaining cases of threat by dangerous implement 20% to other facilities (foreign banks, in brawl or quarrel. In addition, 529 or mega markets, health care institutions, 8% of criminal offences committed in police institutions, catering, airport and hospitality business facilities referred to so on). Regardless of location and facili- violent behavior and there were record- ty in danger, immediately upon notifica- ed 137 cases related to endangerment tion, police officers acted in compliance of safety, 98 cases of causing of general with urgent and precisely defined pro- danger, 184 criminal offences related to cedure in order to verify authenticity of weapons and 195 criminal offences re- the claim and, also, police undertook all lated to drugs. In terms of criminal of- available measures and actions to iden- fences against property, they included tify fake claims and adequately conduct 741 aggravated thefts and 165 cases of criminal proceedings in court against robberies. In addition, 771 criminal of- them. Police filed criminal reports fences were committed against police of- against 176 persons (mainly minors) ficers who were on duty trying to ensure for 131 criminal offences against public and maintain peace and order in hospi- peace and order, i.e. causing panic and tality business facilities. On average, 23 disorder, 27 cases of false representa- central actions of increased control were tion of a signal for help or a signal for

76 Strategic Analysis emergency i.e. wasting time of emer- instigated by insolent, rude or ruthless gency services, 6 cases of false reporting behavior, participation in a brawl and and 3 cases of safety endangerment and endangerment of safety of another per- in 5 cases police undertook appropriate son whose number dropped in the re- measures against the minors. ported period. The number of offences The number of committed offences was that posed socially dangerous actions in decreasing in almost all of the aforemen- terms of misdemeanor liability (mendi- tioned cases and since 2013 the most cancy, prostitution, gambling etc) was significant drop has been recorded in represented to a significantly smaller residential units. With regard to their extent. In the period January- October numerosity, the most prevalent were of- 2016, the number of offences against the fences including elements of violence- public peace and order dropped by 13% insults, maltreatment, commitment of as compared with the same period of the violence and fight, along with offences previous year (from 35.328 to 30.640).

3.5. Criminal offences against general duties police officers

hile carrying out their regular General duties police officers were most daily activities, general duties often attacked while undertaking police police officers are exposed measures and actions related to estab- Wto effects of various criminal offences. lishment and maintenance of violated In the 2011- 2015 period, according to public peace and order, identity checks of estimations 5 483 persons committed persons and bringing persons to the po- 4874 criminal offences (on average 975 lice station. Criminal offences and mis- annually) to the detriment of police of- demeanors against general duties police ficers. In the course of commission of officers were most often committed by the criminal offences, criminals inflicted people under the influence of alcohol and light bodily injuries against 948 general drugs, in the heat of the moment or spe- duties police officers and severe bodily cial psychological condition and mem- injuries against 86 general duties police bers of extreme fan groups at sporting officers. events.

77 Public Security Strategic Assesment

Picture 36 ‒ Number of offenders and criminal offences committed to the detriment of general duties police officers in the 2011-2015 period

78 4. TRAFFIC SAFETY Strategic Analysis

ccording to the data provided cept the idea on traffic safety manage- by the World Health Organiza- ment but haven’t developed a strong tion (WHO), Global Plan for protective system yet. Creation of an ap- Athe Decade of Action for Road Safety propriate legal framework, in which one 2011-2020, each year nearly 1.3 million of the most important roles is assigned people die as a result of a road traffic col- to the Law on the road traffic safety, is lision (3.000 deaths each day) and about a necessary measure for establishment 50.000.000 people are injured. Traffic of the system that will enable road traf- accidents increase dramatically world- fic safety management. In the course of wide. According to the WHO report, enforcement of the applicable Law on road traffic injuries are among leading the traffic safety- in the past six years, causes of death for the young and poor. we have made great progress in that area Injuries in traffic accidents are one of but also observed drawbacks hindering three leading causes of death in people an accomplishment of that goal. between 5 and 44 years of age. Unless In 2015 was adopted 2015-2020 Strategy immediate and effective measures are on the road traffic safety in the Republic taken, road traffic injuries are predict- of Serbia. Its primary goal is reduction of ed to become the fifth leading cause of the number of the road traffic accidents death in the world, resulting in an esti- and fatalities and alleviation of their con- mated 2.4 million deaths each year. The sequences. It has to contribute to the de- economic consequences of motor vehi- velopment of a sustainable and efficient cle crashes have been estimated between system of the traffic safety management 1% and 3% of the respective GNP of the by 2020 that will ensure the following: world countries, reaching a total over • After 2020 there should not be a single $500 billion. child killed in traffic; In ‘70s of 20th century the most devel- • In 2020, compared with 2011, reduce oped countries recognized the need for the annual rate of fatalities, the number traffic safety management and com- of seriously injured children and adults menced development of organized by 50%, and protective system. Therefore, they are successfully managing traffic safety now- • In 2020, compared with 2011, reduce adays and constantly record decrease in the overall social-economic costs caused the number of the road traffic fatalities. by road traffic accidents by 50%. The Republic of Serbia belongs to a group of countries which generally ac-

79 Public Security Strategic Assesment

Picture 37 ‒ Overview of the road traffic safety situation in the 2011-2015 period

80 Strategic Analysis

According to the road safety data, the ed) in the Republic of Serbia yet but on lowest rate of road traffic accidents and the basis of models that are used in oth- injuries was recorded in 2014 when traf- er countries it is estimated that costs of fic police recorded 536 road traffic deaths a traffic accident including casualties i.e. by 17, 5% less than in comparison to amount to EUR 317.317, costs of a traf- 2013 when police recorded 650 deaths fic accident including seriously injured resulting from road traffic accidents. participants amount to EUR 34.094 and including light bodily injuries amount to Model for assessment of the extent of 11 damage resulting from traffic accident EUR 3.181. has not been officially accepted (adopt- 11 Strategy on Road Traffic Safety in the Repub- lic of Serbia 2015- 2020.

4.1. Traffic accidents and their consequences

n the 2011- 2015 period 186.433 included material damage. As per years, traffic accidents were recorded on as of early 2011 to the end of 2015, total the roads of the Republic of Serbia number of traffic accidents decreased. In I(on average 37.200 traffic accidents per 2015 there were 34.171 traffic accidents year) - 67.737 traffic accidents included i.e. by 20% less than in 2011 when traffic casualties and 118.696 traffic accidents police recorded 42.453 traffic accidents..

Picture 38 ‒ Traffic accidents and their consequences: in the 2011–2015 period and during first ten months of 2015 and 2016. Out of the total number of traffic acci- approximately 640 persons killed on an- dents recorded in the last five years traffic nual level. As per years, the highest rate of accidents including casualties made up road traffic deaths was in 2011 (731 per- 36% (67.737) while traffic accidents with son), while in 2014 traffic police recorded material damage made up 64%. 536 road traffic death that is by 27% less Within the reported period, there was than in 2011. recorded 3.204 road traffic deaths, that is

81 Public Security Strategic Assesment

Picture 39 ‒ Overview of traffic accidents displayed according to consequences in the 2011–2015 period and during first ten months of 2015 and 2016 The number of the injured was similar ed 27.934 cases of road traffic accidents. to the number of the killed. In the 2011- There was also an increase in the number 2015 period, 93.599 persons sustained of traffic accidents including casualties injuries, i.e. on average 18.719 persons by 6, 5% (from 11.221 to 11.951), and on annual level. increase in the number of the casualties In January- October 2016 29.565 road by 7, 9% (from 15.902 to 17.155). In the traffic accidents in total were recorded first ten months of 2016 the number of on the roads of the Republic of Serbia, the killed declined by 1% (from 500 to i.e. 5, 8% more in comparison to the first 497) compared with the same period of ten months of 2015 when police record- the preceding year.

4.2. Structure of casualties in traffic accidents

ith regard to the structure of were killed in the capacity of a passen- people who died in traffic ac- ger (54%), while in the capacity of a pe- cidents in the observed five destrian were killed 37% and bicyclists Wyear period, the highest percent relat- made up 9%. ed to the drivers of the motor vehicles In January- October 2016, seven chil- (52%). Pedestrians made up 25%, а pas- dren died in road traffic accidents i.e. sengers made up 23%. 36% less than in the same period of the During the first ten months of 2016, ac- previous year (11). cording to the structure of people who As in the structure of the people who died in traffic accidents the highest per- died in road traffic accidents, in terms cent (as high as 59%) related to the driv- of the structure of the injured the most ers of motor vehicles, then followed pe- vulnerable were the drivers of motor ve- destrians (21%) and passengers (20%). hicles who made up 51% of the injured Within the reported period, in road traf- in the 2011-2015 period while passen- fic accidents were killed 64 children. In gers accounted for 33% and pedestrians the 2011-2015 period the most of them accounted for 16%.

82 Strategic Analysis

Picture 40 ‒ Number of people who died in traffic accidents: in the 2011–2015 period and during first ten months of 2015 and 2016 According to distribution of various age drivers of motor vehicles who made up groups, the highest rate of the people 52%. In comparison to the same period who died in road traffic accidents re- of 2015, the number of injured drivers ferred to the group of people above 65 increased by 8%. Then follow passengers years of age (24%), then followed the in motor vehicles, who made up above group 56-64 years of age (17%), while 34% of the overall number of the in- children made up about 2% of the over- jured, and as per first ten months of the all number of the people who were killed previous year, their number increased in road traffic accidents. by 9%. Pedestrians made up 14% of the In January- October 2016, the most prev- injured and their number, as in case of alent group in the structure of the in- the previous two categories of the traffic jured in road traffic accidents comprised participants, rose by above 7% in comparison to the same period in 2015.

Picture 41 ‒ Age structure of the casualties of the road traffic accidents in the 2011-2015 period

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4.3. Factors that cause traffic accidents

ith reference to the factors limit or ‘’inappropriate speed’’ of the that cause traffic accidents, vehicles on the road, mistakes in per- the most common contrib- forming prescribed operations in traffic, Wutory factors in the 2011-2015 period failure to give the right of way and psy- were: excess of the legally declared speed chophysical condition of a driver

Picture 42 ‒ Factors contributing to the traffic accidents in the 2011‒2015 period Namely, within the reported period, im- the right of way (14%) and psychophys- proper and unadjusted speed of the vehi- ical condition of a driver ( 7,9%). cle was factor that caused 35% of traffic Data collection according to Common accidents. They were followed by ve- Accident Data Set (CADaS) recommen- hicles’ entering into traffic and improp- dations adopted by European Commis- er vehicle actions in traffic that caused sion commenced in January 1st, 2016. 29% of traffic accidents, failure to give In the first ten months of 2016, accord-

84 Strategic Analysis ing to data obtained pursuant to the the driver referring to the incorrect as- aforementioned data collection method, sessment of the traffic situation (15%), the most common factors causing traf- unsafe distance between vehicles (11%) fic accidents are wrong performance and failure to give the right of way de- of turning or other vehicle manoeuvre fined by the traffic police officer, traffic (22%), speed unadjusted to the road sign markings or traffic rules (10%). conditions and traffic (19%), failure of

4.4. Traffic accidents on the state roads of the Republic of Serbia and factors that cause them according to Common Accident Data Set (CADaS)

n the course of 2015, on the state In the course of 2016 on the state roads roads of the Republic of Serbia were of the Republic of Serbia were recorded recorded 9.045 traffic accidents in 9.861 traffic accidents in which 387 per- Iwhich 391 person died i.e. 65, 3% of the sons died i.e. 64% of the overall number overall number of the people who died of the people who died in traffic acci- in traffic accidents (599). dents (605).

Picture 43 ‒ Spatial distribution of traffic accidents in 2015 and first ten months of 2016

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Picture 44 ‒ Consequences of traffic accidents in 2015 and the first ten months of 2016 According to the data collected by Com- ring to the incorrect assessment of the mon Accident Data Set (CADaS), the traffic situation (5%), unsafe distance most common factors contributing to between vehicles (3%), driver under the traffic accidents on the state roads of the influence of alcohol (3%), wrong perfor- Republic of Serbia in 2016 were: speed mance of turning or other vehicle ma- unadjusted to the road conditions and noeuvre (2,5%) and loss of control over traffic (8%), failure of the driver refer- vehicle (2%).

4.5. Detected misdemeanors and criminal offences against the road traffic safety

ithin the reported five year which 798.033 misdemeanors were de- period, police detected more tected by monitoring traffic participants’ than 3.800.000 misdemean- observance of the traffic safety regula- Wors in the area of the road traffic safety in tions. In relation to the structure of the total and out of that number more than misdemeanors, it is almost identical to 3.697.000 misdemeanors were detected the structure in the previous period. by monitoring traffic participants’ ob- In addition, within the reported five year servance of the traffic safety regulations. period police detected criminal offenc- In relation to the structure of the misde- es against road traffic safety including meanors, the most prevalent are: speed 32.680 cases of endangerment of pub- unadjusted to the road conditions and lic traffic safety, 1.836 cases of failure to traffic, passengers fail to wear a seat belt, render aid to a person injured in traffic improper stopping, standing or parking accident, 9.488 grave offences against vehicle on roadway, driving under the traffic safety. influence of alcohol, failure to abide by traffic signs, failure to use headlights in In the first ten months of 2016, police daytime hours etc. detected 5.586 criminal offences of endangerment of public traffic safety, 271 In the first ten months of 2016, police cases of failure to render aid to a per- detected 818.319 misdemeanors in the son injured in traffic accident and 1.377 area of road traffic safety in total out of grave offences against traffic safety.

86 5. BORDER SAFETY AND Strategic Analysis FOREIGN NATIONALS

5.1. Flow of passengers

he number of passengers crossing 2015 were registered 58,4 million pas- the state border is continuously sengers. In January- October 2016 the increasing: 48,7 million passen- state border was crossed by 56 million Tgers were registered in 2011 while in passengers.

Picture 45‒ Total volume of passenger traffic across national border in the 2011–2015 period Among the passengers, foreign nationals poses increasingly harder tasks before made up about 60%. In addition, about border police since it is necessary to en- 60% of the overall passenger flow was sure unimpeded and faster flow of pas- recorded on five most frequent border sengers and goods over the state border crossings- Batrovci, Horgoš, Preševo, and, at the same time, carry out detailed Surčin Belgrade and Gradina. inspection and control. In spite of improved infrastructure and technical equipment of border crossing points, increased passenger flow still

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5.2. Cross border crime

here are various forms of crime towards the EU Countries via Hungary present at the state border and and Croatia. In the first ten months of among them the most prevalent 2016, police seized 230 kg of narcotic Tare smuggling of drugs, firearms, excise drugs (heroin, cocaine, marijuana and goods and goods for different purposes. hashish) and registered four-time rise in comparison to the same period in 2015, primarily due to increase in sei- Seizures of narcotic drugs zures of marijuana, whose share in the total amount of seized drugs in the first In the 2011- 2015 period, on the state ten months of 2016 was 92%. Along with border were seized more than 3t of nar- marijuana, police seized a significant cotic drugs out of which 2,6t of mar- quantity of heroin (252 kg), and syn- ijuana, which is most often smuggled thetic drugs (79 kg and 259.000 pcs of from BYR Macedonia and Montenegro tablets).

Picture 46 – Total quantity of narcotic drugs seized on the state border: in the 2011–2015 period and in the first ten months of 2015 and 2016.

88 Strategic Analysis

Picture 47 ‒ Narcotic drugs seized on the state border in the period January 1st 2012- October 31st, 2016.

Seizure of weapons Seizure of cigarettes

Within the reported five year period, in In the 2011- 2015 period on the state 606 cases police seized 1.332 pieces of border were seized 73.600 cartons of cig- weapon‒ mostly cold weapon (35%) and arettes of different cigarette brands. The gas operated weapon (29%), which is quantity of seized cigarettes has been smuggled to Serbia primarily from Bul- continuously growing since 2014. Given garia. Police recorded numerous crimi- the fact that cigarettes are smuggled to nal attempts to smuggle firearms over all the EU countries, two thirds of the total parts of the state border except Romania, number has been confiscated on their while the highest rate of seizures was re- exit from the Republic of Serbia. In the corded on the border with Hungary and first ten months of 2016 police record- Croatia. In the first ten months of 2016 ed almost three times more seizures on the rate of seizures was almost three- the state border than in the same period times lower than in the same period of of 2015. The majority of cigarettes were the preceding year. Increased control of confiscated on the border with Croa- passengers and transport means on Ser- tia (about 52%) and Romania (23, 6%). bian side of the state border and external About 70% of the mentioned confisca- and internal borders of the EU, initiated tions were made on the exit from the Re- because of current migration and terror- public of Serbia. ism threat, poses a factor that distracts criminals from weapon smuggling.

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Picture 48 ‒ Quantities of cigarettes (in cartons) seized on the state border from January 1st, 2012 to October 31st, 2016.

90 Strategic Analysis

5.3. Irregular migration and smuggling of human beings

he Republic of Serbia has been The measures taken on the global lev- facing with an increased pres- el have reduced the number of irregular sure of irregular migration since migrants only temporarily. Namely, on T2009 when the first wave of a so called March 7th 2016 EU heads of state or secondary irregular migration came government held a meeting and decided from the territory of Turkey, via Greece, to bring the irregular flow of migrants BYR Macedonia and Serbia to Hunga- along the Western Balkan route to an end ry and Croatia. In 2015 police recorded by closing the route. That decision led a sudden increase in the migration of to reduction of the migrants compared Afro-Asian nationals who mostly used with 2015 but police has observed that Western Balkan route to reach their their number is increasing on monthly final destination. Its most important basis and their point of entrance is main- sub-route led from Greece, over BYR ly Serbian- Bulgarian border. Macedonia and Serbia to Hungary. The In order to efficiently tackle the problem migrants founded that route suitable of irregular migration and human smug- because of direct approach to Schengen gling over the territory of the Republic area and developed road infrastructure of Serbia, in mid July 2016 the Govern- that enables fast transit. ment of the Republic of Serbia adopted In 2015 and the first ten months of 2016 the Decision on establishment of police more than 700 000 migrants crossed the and military forces assigned with a task territory of the Republic of Serbia. The to suppress irregular migration and hu- majority of the irregular migrants in- man smuggling on the borders with the cluded nationals of Afghanistan (39%), Republic of Bulgaria and BYR Macedo- Iraq (32%) and Syria (11%) - their na- nia. tionality and identity are most often de- To ensure more efficient suppression of termined on the basis of their statements. human smuggling, on April 4th 2016 Use of biometric data of the migrants was signed a Memorandum on Coop- and potential asylum seekers does not eration between the Ministry of Interior ensure determination of their identity and Republic Public Prosecutor’s Office since the data base is not connected to in the field of human smuggling which data bases of other countries. foresees creation of a permanent Human The migrants are mainly men who are Smuggling Task Force. Its task is coor- capable of working. Women account dination of activities involved in sup- for 15% and children account for 10%. pression of human smuggling and sup- Compared with the migrants who were pression of human smuggling including present in the previous years, significant elements of organized efforts. differences were observed in relation to The main method applied in illegal their economic position i.e. the amount crossing of the state border during 2016 of money that they have at disposal and was crossing between the two border modern mobile communication devices crossing points that is over the green line they are equipped with. where police prevented 5.042 attempts

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of illegal crossings over the state bor- frequently change their members and der while on the border crossing points their roles. were recorded 1.008 cases of attempted Within the reported five year period, the illegal crossing of the state border (eva- highest rate of the criminal offences re- sion of border control, use of another’s lated to human smuggling was record- or forged documents etc). ed in 2015 when police detected almost Human smuggling that is organized ir- half of the total 1.729 criminal offenc- regular migration as a form of crime es and that reflects intensity of irregu- is enabled by a system of well organ- lar migration recorded in 2015. Police ized activities between mutually con- filed 1 581 criminal report (761 in 2015) nected individuals or groups. Human against 2 223 offenders (1 016 in 2015). smuggling routes are subject to change Among the smugglers the majority com- depending on undertaken measures. prised nationals of Serbia (2.080) and Human smuggling is a form of crime Bulgaria (75). In the first ten months of which includes elements of trans-na- 2016 the number of detected criminal tionality and organization to the greatest offences related to human smuggling degree. The majority of criminal groups dropped by 60% in comparison with the operate on international level, relying on same period in 2015 as a result of under- contacts in the countries of origin of the taken measures aimed at suppression of irregular migrants and contacts abroad irregular migration and engagement of and countries of transit and final desti- additional forces of Serbian police and nation. Organized criminal groups offer army, along with police members from different services to irregular migrants, other countries, on the state border with enabling them to enter the EU territory, FYR Macedonia and Bulgaria where are movement within EU and legalization located key points of entrance to the ter- of stay. Such organized criminal groups ritory of the Republic of Serbia. Police that operate in Serbia do not have hi- filed 293 criminal reports (732 in the erarchical organization but function as first ten months of 2015) against 448 of- ‘’cells’’ which mutually cooperate and fenders.

Picture 49 ‒ Illegal crossing over the state border and human smuggling: in the 2011‒2015 period and during first ten months of 2015 and 2016

92 Strategic Analysis

5.4. Foreign nationals

ver the reported period, the porary stay and the foreign nationals number of foreign nationals with approved permanent stay in Serbia with approved temporary stay increased the number of undertaken O(sojourn) in the Republic of Serbia in- measures towards the foreign nationals. creased (from17.589 in 2011 to 28.248 A factor contributing to drastic increase in 2014). In 2015 the number of for- of measures was, primarily, migration eign nationals with approved temporary of Afro-Asian nationals. Namely, in stay was slightly lower (for 109) than in 2011 police took 21.120 measures (968 the previous year and tendency toward criminal reports, 13.026 misdemean- further decrease continued even dur- ors and 7.126 cancelled permissions to ing 2016. According to their nationali- stay) against foreign nationals, while in ty, the highest rate of foreign nationals 2015 police took 45.546 measures (1.037 with approved temporary stay relates criminal reports, 28.439 misdemeanors, to nationals of China who are followed 15.306 cancelled permissions to stay, 762 by nationals of Russia. With reference illegal stays and in 2 cases the competent to the foreign nationals with approved authority issued a decision on imposing permanent stay in Serbia, their number a travel restriction order requiring the increased from 7.272 in 2011 to 9.736 in stay in a particular place). Given the fact 2015. According to their nationality, the that the Balkan Route was closed since majority of the foreign nationals with March 2016, the number of measures approved permanent stay in Serbia are undertaken towards foreign nationals nationals of Romania and Russian Fed- in the first ten months of 2016 dropped eration. Along with the increase of the by 60% as compared with the first ten foreign nationals with approved tem- months of 2015.

5.4.1. Criminal offences committed by migrants and to the detriment of the migrants

igrants transiting through public of Serbia. At the same period, Serbia can become victims on the territory of the Republic of Ser- of criminal offences but they bia were recorded 103 criminal offences Mcan also cause certain security prob- committed to the detriment of the mi- lems themselves. Therefore, authorities grants (60 in 2015 and 43 during first took certain measures on continuous ten months 2016). The majority of the monitoring of the problems related to victims are from Syria (99), Afghanistan migrants as perpetrators of criminal of- (50) and Bangladesh (31). fences and migrants as victims of crimi- With reference to the criminal offences nal offences. against life and limb, in 2015 was re- In 2015 and during first ten months of corded one case of aggravated murder 2016 more than 700 000 irregular mi- and one case of attempted aggravated grants crossed the territory of the Re- murder. A case of aggravated murder

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was recorded in July 2015 in Subotica criminal offences committed to the det- when a national of Afghanistan caused riment of the migrants in 2015 and dur- death of another fellow citizen and a ing first ten months of 2016. case of attempted murder was recorded In 2015 and during first ten months of in March 2015 when a juvenile came to 2016, on the territory of the Republic of a deserted house in Ozrenska Street in Serbia irregular migrants committed 88 Belgrade where a national of the Arab criminal offences (34 in 2015 and 54 in Republic of Syria had slept over and, for 2016). Among the most serious criminal no reason, caused him a serious bodily offences were one aggravated murder harm by plunging a knife into the back (Subotica) and one attempted murder of the man. With reference to serious (Sremska Mitrovica). The aggravated criminal offences, in 2016 were record- murder was committed by a national of ed two murders of the migrants (in Pirot Afghanistan who caused death of his fel- and Subotica). An anonymous person low citizen while in Sremska Mitrovica caused death of a national of Turkey in a national of Iran stubbed and caused Subotica by plunging a knife into his death of a national of Serbia. The most neck. In Pirot, while hunting in the vil- common perpetrators of criminal of- lage Slavinja, Serbian national caused fences are nationals of Syria (30), Algeria death of a national of Afghanistan. Po- (19), Pakistan (15) etc. lice cleared 70% of the total number of

94 6. ADMINISTRATIVE AFFAIRS Strategic Analysis

6.1. Readmission

earing in mind that we ratified the asylum applications were rejected or Agreement on readmission be- didn’t meet prescribed conditions to tween the European Community stay in the country, competent foreign Band the Republic of Serbia and that it authorities commence a procedure to came into force on January 1st, 2008 and return a rejected asylum seeker to the that, in order to ensure its implemen- Republic of Serbia. Given the commit- tation, we have so far signed 19 imple- ments of the Republic of Serbia in the menting protocols with 21 country and EU integration process, along with obli- 11 bilateral readmission agreements, it is gations in the protection of the national evident that Serbia is ready and willing interests i.e. protection of the visa liberal- to conclude interstate, both bilateral and ization of the Republic of Serbia nation- multilateral, agreements on readmission als, Ministry of Interior carries activities that will incorporate the highest stand- and undertakes measures in relation to ards of the protection of human rights implementation of efficient and effective and freedoms. mechanisms of readmission and deter- Implementation of interstate agree- mination of identity and nationality of ments is one of the important tasks of the Republic of Serbia, with the aim of the Republic of Serbia and Ministry of discharging obligations prescribed by Interior, especially in relation to actions the agreements. With reference to the that are carried in response to requests readmission of the third country na- of foreign authorities related to return of tionals or the stateless persons, facts on Serbian nationals who illegally reside on direct and illegal entrance from the ter- the territory of a foreign country, along ritory of the Republic of Serbia to the with return of third country nationals. territory of a contracting country are to Having in mind that readmission pre- be determined. sents a part of the migration manage- Pursuant to the 2011 Readmission ment, readmission process is reflected in Agreement, until October 31st, 2016 external and internal security. were received 50.053 requests for read- After visa liberalization in 2009, nation- mission of the Republic of Serbia nationals of the Republic of Serbia commenced als and 32.797 requests for readmission to apply for asylum in the EU (so called of the third country nationals. fake asylum seekers) to a great extent. In order to solve the issue of illegal stay of the Republic of Serbia nationals whose

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Picture 50 ‒ Number of requests for readmission of the Republic of Serbia nationals and the third country nationals submitted from 2011 to October 31st, 2016 According to the age structure, 80% en. For that reason, in order to avoid of the requests for readmission of the or postpone their return to the country Republic of Serbia nationals pertain to within the readmission process, certain adults, and 20% to minors. According individuals „create“false identity i.e. to the gender, men account for 63% and provide false information or use anoth- women account for 37% of the requests. er’s or forged documents. We should underline that in the report- A specific problem is present in return of ed period, authorities approved read- the persons to be readmitted, in compli- mission of 38.447 persons to the Re- ance with the Readmission Agreement, public of Serbia, and in compliance with originating from the area of Kosovo the Readmission Agreement were real- and Metohija and residing without au- ized 222 charter flights for announced thorization in the EU countries and the 25.719 persons and out of that number Schengen area member states (hold doc- were readmitted 11.058 persons with uments issued by ‘’Kosovo’’ authori- assistance of 674 police officers of the ties), along with the persons who have Ministry of Interior of the Republic of misused the freedom of movement re- Serbia in capacity of their official escort. gime and are therefore in the readmis- A number of persons returned willing- sion procedure. In relation to security ly, without previous announcement of a aspect, pursuant to the Readmission foreign authority. Agreement, obligation of assumption When making decisions on requests for for that category of people exists only readmission of the Republic of Serbia if it is determined that they are nation- nationals, competent authorities shall als of the Republic of Serbia. However, carry out necessary checks related to in relation to the above mentioned cate- nationality and identity of persons. Ac- gory of persons, problems can occur in cording to the Readmission Agreement, determination of their identity if they do foreign competent authority shall not be not possess both official documents of liable to submit along with the request, the Republic of Serbia and identification except data, public documents on the documents issued by competent Serbian basis of which the nationality and facts authorities. concerning the person shall be prov-

96 Strategic Analysis

6.2. Registration of residence of the persons from the region of Kosovo and Metohija with the aim of applying for/getting a passport

The issue of readmission of persons of the territory outside the area of AP from the area of Kosovo and Metohija Kosovo and Metohija since they live in residing without authorization in the EU the places where they have registered countries is closely connected to their their stay while, on the other hand, a application for issuance of a passport number of them relied on frauds and which enables them to travel without managed to register their stay in order to visa. Directive on procedure determining get passports that enable them to travel fulfillment of conditions set regarding to the EU countries without visa. issuance of passports for persons from Ministry of Interior has been carrying the area of Kosovo and Metohija (2009) additional checks and when it regulates the procedure determining determines that a person who does fulfillment of conditions for issuance of not meet conditions for registration of passports for nationals of the Republic stay has submitted an application, the of Serbia who have registered stay in the application shall be annulled as well as area of Autonomous Province Kosovo other documents issued on the grounds and Metohija and nationals of the of the registration of stay. Republic of Serbia who hold certificate of nationality issued by authorities of Persons from the area of AP Kosovo and the Republic of Serbia competent for the Metohija who register their stay outside area of Autonomous Province Kosovo the area of AP Kosovo and Metohija and Metohija and do not have registered using different types of fraud in order to stay in the Republic of Serbia. Such obtain passport that enable them to travel passports are issued by Coordinating abroad without visa and apply as fake Directorate and they are subject to asylum seekers in the EU countries, pose visa regime. A number of citizens have a problem to maintenance of the visa registered their stay in the interior part free regime granted to the citizens of the Republic of Serbia who travel abroad.

Picture 51 ‒ Number of applications submitted in relation to the registration of stay on the territory of the Republic of Serbia from 2011 to December 1st, 2016

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In the period from 2011 to December came into force on 17th September 2009 1st, 2016, on the territory of the Republic as well as the citizens who held the status of Serbia outside the area of AP Kosovo of the internally displaced persons (IDP) and Metohija were registered 52.960 cit- recognized by the Commissariat for Ref- izens of the Republic of Serbia who had ugees and Migration of the Republic of previously registered their stay on the Serbia, that is the citizens who registered area of АP Kosovo and Metohija.12 That their stay on the territory of the Repub- number includes the citizens subject to lic of Serbia outside the area of the AP the Directive issued by the Government Kosovo and Metohija after 1999 and who of the Republic of Serbia referring to are not subject to the provisions of the the procedure determining fulfillment above mentioned Directive. of conditions set regarding issuance of However, in the period from 2011 to 31st passports for the persons from the area October 2016 were issued about 13 mil- of the AP Kosovo and Metohija , which lion biometric identification cards and 12 Official Gazette of the Republic of Serbia, No. biometric passports. 76/09.

6.3. Legally invisible persons

he problem of the legally invis- tion to readmission requests. To ensure ible persons that is persons who that these people, as many as possible, have no identification documents receive identification documents, au- Tnor official records of their existence has thorities are continuously carrying out been present for years and as the most actions related to issuance of identifica- vulnerable individuals they are unable tion documents and registration of their to exercise their fundamental human stay i.e. residence. In addition, pursuant rights; at the same time, they pose a po- to the Law on citizenship of the Repub- tential security problem. lic of Serbia and the Law regulating resi- According to the 2011 Census, 147.604 dence and stay of citizens, these persons citizens declared themselves as the are enabled to register their stay in the members of the Roma national minority. social work centers. A number of them don’t hold any iden- Persons who have no identification doc- tification document and consequently uments pose a potential threat because of state authorities practically have no in- hampered identification should they com- formation or records about them and mit a criminal offence or misdemeanor therefore, inter allia, it is not possible (given the fact that there are no official -re to carry out any identity checks in rela- cords about them in electronic database).

98 Strategic Analysis

6.4. Third country nationals and stateless persons

n the period from January 1st 2011 the member states after having stayed to October 31st 2016, in conformity on or transited through the territory of with the Readmission Agreement the Republic of Serbia are to be verified. Iwere received 32.797 requests for read- Pursuant to information obtained by mission of third country nationals. As competent foreign authorities, necessary per years, in 2015 were received 9.637 checks of the MOI records are carried requests i.e. twice more than in 2014 out and the requests are processed in when were received 4.649. In the peri- a continuous communication with the od January- October 2016 was received Border Police Directorate. Given the fact 7.829 requests. that such persons in the great majority With reference to readmission of third of cases do not possess identification country nationals and stateless per- documents, their identity is created on sons, facts whether the person direct- the basis of their declarations and that ly and illegally entered the territory of also poses a security threat.

6.5. Lawful possession of weapon by citizens

earing in mind that social circum- acquisition and possession of weapon stances significantly changed over and the Council Directive 91/477/EC, the last 20 years and the problem as amended by European Parliament Bof firearms in Serbia was particularly Directive 2008/51/EC, on control of the emphasized in 90’s of 20th century in the acquisition and possession of weapons. period of armed conflicts in the neigh- The new Law on Weapon and Am- boring countries, the Law on Weapon munition prescribes strict terms and and Ammunition adopted in 1992 didn’t conditions for acquisition, possession, reflect real needs in the control of civil- carrying and trade in weapons, along ian possession of weapons for a long pe- with their compliance with Directives riod of time. In order to establish a sin- 477/914 and 51/2008. It stipulates easy- gle national system of efficient control to-use methods and conditions for reg- of small arms and light weapons and istration of weapons by sports shooters reduce the quantity of illegal weapon, and weapon collectors. It introduces a with the aim of increasing general safety category of deactivated weapon, which and security of the citizens and the na- will enable citizens to hold weapons of tion, in compliance with its strategic de- certain value to them, without obligation termination- accession to the European to fulfill conditions related to acquisition Union, the Republic of Serbia passed a of weapons prescribed by the Law. An- new Law on weapon and ammunition other novelty refers to introduction of which is aligned with the Council Di- reasonable grounds for possession and rective 91/477/EEC on the control of carrying of weapons (when submitting

99 Public Security Strategic Assesment

application for acquisition of weapons, similar level while in 2015 and 2016 the citizens are obliged to give reasons for quantities dropped. By 1st December acquisition, possession and carrying of 2016 were registered 973.790 pieces of weapons). weapon in total. In the context of firearms, on 13th In order to ensure reduction of the May 2010 was adopted the Strategy on quantities of illegal weapons and provide the control of the small arms and light higher degree of security to the citizens weapons 2010-2015 with the aim of pro- of the Republic of Serbia, the new Law viding support to implementation of the on weapons and ammunition foresees national legislation related to trade, la- lawful legalization, which was conduct- beling and marking, export and import ed after its adoption, along with legaliza- control and fulfillment of requirements tion that can be conducted periodically set for weapon possession and registra- upon official authorization of the Inte- tion procedure. Adoption of the new rior Minister when required by protec- Strategy and its Action Plan (for period tion of security of the citizens and public 2017- 2022) and its implementation are peace and order. Within the process of foreseen by the Action Plan for nego- lawful legalization, which commenced tiating Chapter 24, subchapter „Police on 4th March 2015 and ended on 4th Co-operation and Fight against Organ- June 2015, 7.545 pieces of weapon were ized Crime“, and in the Action Plan for legalized. During the legalization pro- negotiating Chapter 1 („Free Movement cess, conducted by the Interior Minister of Goods“). In that regard, the Republic decree, in the period 1st July 2016- 1st of Serbia prepares a new strategy on the November 2016, were legalized 1.410 control of small arms and light weap- pieces of weapon. ons which will also aim at reduction of In the 2003- 2012 period in Serbia were quantity of weapon and firth against ille- conducted 10 actions focused on the de- gal production, possession and trade in struction of weapons and ammunition small arms and light weapons. (in 2009 were conducted 2 actions). On With reference to the quantity of weap- these occasions were destroyed 108.073 ons registered in the Republic of Serbia, pieces of weapon and 42.000 pieces of in the 2011-2014 period the quantities of ammunition. the legally possessed weapons were on a

100 PUBLIC SECURITY STRATEGIC ASSESMENT

STRATEGICV ASSESSMENT

POLICE DIRECTORATE

Strategic Assessment

n the basis of the strategic anal- as strategic priorities will be discussed ysis pertaining to the five year within operational assessments of public period including 2011-2015 security and operational plans of police Oand January- October 2016, performed that are developed on the level of the po- by application of contemporary analyt- lice directorates. Review of the strategic ical and scientific methods and tech- plan and operational plans will exert in- niques related to assessment of risk and fluence on changes of priorities in com- threats, the General Police laid empha- pliance with the current situation in the sis on eight strategic priorities in the field of security. forthcoming five years. The priorities • With reference to their strategic as- were highlighted on the grounds of the sessment, each of the priorities elabo- group decision making process and ex- rates on three parts: perts’ evaluation methods, taking into consideration opinions provided by or- • description – indicates degree of dan- ganizational units in the MOI headquar- ger, manifestations and forms of the pri- ters, external partners and Program of oritized area; the Government of the Republic of Ser- • forecasting trends– indicates potential bia. The strategic priorities are of equal directions and tendencies in develop- importance (they are not ranked in or- ment of prioritized area, and der of importance). Other segments of public security that are presented in the • recommendations – define potential strategic analysis and not underlined solutions for improvement of current situation within the prioritized area.

103 1. ORGANIZEDPublic Security Strategic Assesment CRIME

rganized crime1 is one of the tegration path and alignment with EU greatest security challenges for practice and standards. the Republic of Serbia and a What primarily influences organized Ohuge social threat. A high risk of such crime in Serbia are the country’s central crime derives from its adaptability to position in the Western Balkan region the changing environment at the nation- where it is surrounded by the EU mem- al and international level, including its ber states and its being on the external sophisticated manifestation reflected in Schengen borders, long lasting process the abuse of state-of-art technologies, of economic and social recovery, legacy which makes it far more concealed than of armed conflicts in the former Yugoslav so far, and thus harder to detect. region which had a decisive impact on Enormous profit, which motivates and the development of particular forms of determines organised crime, underlines organized crime and consolidation of its the increasingly more unscrupulous and strong connections in the Balkan region. violent forms of activity, including the Organized crime poses one of the great- use of legal business structures to con- est security threats and therefore its ef- ceal the source of profit. Media report ficient suppression requires a strategic on activities of organized crime and approach. The first step in that process consequences of its particular forms is recognition of its particular manifes- trigger strong reaction and pressure of tations and all factors contributing to the public and exert influence on gen- its survival and development. In that eral perception of the citizens’ regarding regard, the first national Serious and their own safety. Therefore, preventive Organized Crime Threat Assessment and repressive actions have to be set as (SOCTA) indicates the nature and cur- a priority in the political agenda of the rent scope, situation, features and degree Republic of Serbia, particularly in light of organization of the perpetrators com- of Serbia’s commitments on its EU in- mitting organized crime offences along with activities of the organized and 1 Part of the Public Security Strategic Assessment criminal groups and identifies key secu- pertaining to organized crime acknowledges the validity of the results presnted in the National rity threats arising from organized crime SOCTA and fully refers to it. in the Republic of Serbia.

104 Strategic Assessment

 DRUGS  ECONOMIC CRIME • Cocaine • Smuggling of excise goods • Маrijuana • Counterfeiting money • Heroin  MONEY LAUNDERING • Synthetic drugs  CORRUPTION  HUMAN SMUG-  CYBER CRIME GLING- IRREGU- • Sexual exploitation of mi- LAR MIGRATION nors and children  TRAFFICKING • Internet fraud and e-com- IN HUMAN BEINGS merce  ROBBERIES • Cyber attacks on computer  USURY AND networks and systems EXTORTION  MOTOR VEHI- CLES

Picture 52 ‒ Areas of serious and organized crime covered by the Serious Organized Crime Threat Assessment- SOCTA Results of the Assessment and given rec- ous and organized crime. Types of crime ommendations pose an objective basis presented in the Strategic assessment are for selection of priorities and making of set as priorities because of their presence, strategic and operational decisions with expansion and consequences they lead the aim of efficient organization of -ac to, regardless of whether they are results tivities focused on suppression of seri- of the OCGs activities.

105 2. SUPRESSION OF THE PRODUCTION AND SMUGGLINGPublic Security Strategic Assesment OF DRUGS WITH A PARTICULAR FOCUS ON MARIJUANA AND SYNTHETIC DRUG

2.1. Summary of the priority

he production and smuggling of Interior and other law enforcement au- drugs in Serbia are among the thorities and particularly increased con- most dominant and profitable trol and seizure of drugs at border cross- Tforms of organised crime. Serbia is a ings points where the largest quantities transit country for smuggling drugs but were seized. This confirms that the ter- also the country where marijuana and ritory of Serbia is used as a transit area. synthetic drugs are produced. Smuggling of cocaine and heroin in the Apart from criminal offences relating Republic of Serbia is performed on the to production, smuggling and distribu- global and regional level, to the greatest tion of drugs, the presence of drugs and extent, and is a result of activities carried their abuse directly and indirectly influ- out by OCGs whose modus operandi is ence other forms of crime, such as vio- presented in the Serious and Organized lent crime, murders, criminal offences Crime Threat Assessment (SOCTA) . against the traffic safety, money laundry, The availability of marijuana at the lo- juvenile delinquency as well as begging, cal market is reflected in the facts that prostitution, criminal offences against Serbia is located on the Central Balkan property and other forms of deviant be- Route for marijuana smuggling along haviour. with the increase in domestic produc- In addition to security repercussions, tion of marijuana in natural conditions this form of crime has implications for and modified marijuana („skunk“) in social protection and healthcare, reflect- artificial conditions. A small quantity ed in higher costs of treatment, healing of marijuana smuggled via the Central and care service for addicts. Balkan Route remains for the needs of The main routes for drug smuggling the local market. The Serbian soil is are constantly changing with the aim of conducive to marijuana cultivation in adapting to activities of law enforcement the open. Deserted rural areas enable authorities, along with more intensive cheap production of marijuana with the use of new transport infrastructure. use of state-of-the–art technologies and know-how. The increase in the total quantity of seized drugs is the result of systemic, Geographic position of the Republic of planned and coordinated activities of Serbia determines its transit importance. organisational units of the Ministry of Serbia is located on the so called Central

106 Strategic Assessment

Balkan route for drugs smuggling, induction in Serbia but to a lower extent cluding synthetic drugs and precursors, than in the case of marijuana. A bad eco- both from the West to the East (from the nomic situation, the availability of cheap Netherlands, through other EU coun- equipment and chemical components tries, Serbia to Asia) and from the East for synthetic drugs protection (from to the West (from Asia to EU countries). Asian and Western European coun- Serbia’s position enables that a part of tries), which are used for other purpos- smuggled synthetic drugs remains in es as well, including the low price in the the local market, which increases their local market, are favorable conditions availability. The global tendency of con- for the production of synthetic drugs stant appearance of new synthetic drugs and precursors in illegal laboratories. (the so-called designer drugs) and com- In addition to night clubs, large music ponents for their production is also ob- festivals held each year in Serbia are the served in the local Serbian market. places where synthetic drugs are most The local synthetic drugs market in Ser- frequently consumed. bia is supplied also through illicit pro-

2.2. Forecasting trends in relation to marijuana

а) It is expected that criminal groups c) Routes used for smuggling of excise and persons of interest (i.e. individuals goods will be also used for marijuana carrying out criminal activities) deal- smuggling. ing with other forms of crime (criminal d) The use of state-of-the-art informa- offences against property, smuggling of tion technologies that enable online excise goods) change the focus of their access to know-how and shops selling activity to production and illegal traf- equipment for cannabis seed cultiva- ficking in marijuana due to high demand tion in Europe will bring about a high- at the market and potential to make a big er number of illegal laboratories for the profit. production of marijuana in natural con- b) Due to its increased production, mar- ditions and the production of modified ijuana will continue to be easily available marijuana (skunk) in artificial condi- to meet demands of the local market at a tions for needs of the local market in the low purchase price. Republic of Serbia.

107 Public Security Strategic Assesment

2.3. Forecasting trends in relation to synthetic drugs

а) Increased smuggling of synthetic c) Internet access and the use of state- drugs from other European countries of-the-art information technologies will into the territory of the Republic of Ser- enable faster acquisition of raw materials bia will be continued. and easier production and distribution b) Criminal groups and persons of inter- for the needs of the local market. est (i.e. individuals carrying out criminal d) Occurrence of new and unregistered activities) will focus their illegal produc- psychoactive substances may signifi- tion to kitchen- type clandestine lab- cantly affect illegal drugs market on the oratories, which will reflect on greater territory of the Republic of Serbia and availability of synthetic drugs at the local the wider area of the Balkan region, too. . market and directly reduce their price.

2.4. Recommendations

2.4.1. Improvement of normative framework and practical work

а) Evaluation of the Action Plan for im- b) Participation in the improvement of plementation of the Strategy for Fight operation of the national early warning Against Drugs (2014–2017) and partic- system by regular updating and align- ipation in development of a new Action ment of the list of psychoactive con- Plan (2017–2021) under the competence trolled substances in conformity with of the Ministry of Interior. international and European regulations and national needs.

2.4.2. Strengthening of institutional and professional capacities

а) Professional training and develop- taining to detection of clandestine lab- ment of specialized staff in the Criminal oratories. Police Directorate to detect clandestine b) Analysis of functionality of teams laboratories for production of marijua- which enter illegal laboratories used for na and synthetic drugs, suppression of production of marijuana and synthetic smuggling and conducting of legal pro- drugs and improvement of their work. ceedings against individuals accused of relevant criminal offences in cases per-

108 Strategic Assessment c) Intensified training and additional Interior in the demonstration laboratory strengthening of professional capacities of the NCTC (Training Center ‘’Mitrovo of trained members of the Ministry of Polje’’, Goč).

2.4.3. Development of operational procedures

а) Establishment of uniformed practice and sale of marijuana and synthetic and methodology of police work in re- drugs. lation to the detection of clandestine c) Improvement of procedures related laboratories for drugs production and to storage and intensified destruction entrance into them. of confiscated marijuana and synthetic b) Enforcement of coordinated and tar- drugs on the grounds of forthcoming geted operational actions focused on amendments to the normative frame- criminal groups and persons of interest work by continuous creation of a sus- (i.e. individuals carrying out criminal tainable system. activities) dealing with the production

2.4.4. Improving prevention

а) Development of qualitative analysis of and development of projects focused on preventive programs being carried out on preventive policing in cooperation with the territory of the Republic of Serbia. competent ministries and institutions b) Development of a protocol on the role as envisaged by the Strategy for fight of police in the prevention of drug abuse against drugs and its implementing Ac- tion Plan.

2.4.5. Improving national, regional and international cooperation

а) Active involvement in Europol’s analy- c) Performance of international (con- sis work files related to marijuana and syn- trolled) deliveries which pass the terri- thetic drugs, joint activities in bilateral or tory of the Republic of Serbia or begin/ multilateral international investigations. end on the territory of the Republic of b) Active involvement in operations car- Serbia. ried out by Southeast European Law En- forcement Center- SELEC.

109 Public Security Strategic Assesment 3. SUPPRESSION OF CORRUPTION

3.1. Summary of the priority

here is increased awareness and endanger fundamental social values, political will in the Republic of undermine the public trust in public Serbia to eliminate corruption to institutions, hamper reforms and eco- Tthe greatest possible extent in order to nomic progress and hinder integration ensure economic, social and democrat- processes, it is more than clear that only ic development of the state. Its conse- a long-term and systematic approach quences cause poverty of the society and guarantees efficient fight against this state, drastically undermine the public phenomenon. A well defined systemat- trust in democratic institutions and lead ic approach requires presence of a legal to creation of uncertainty and instabili- framework, which entails a number of ty of economic system. The Republic of mutually aligned anti-corruption laws. Serbia is determined to achieve signifi- It is necessary to establish and improve cant success in the fight against corrup- institutions that, along with police and tion, with respect to democratic values, judiciary, will be responsible for the law rule of law and protection of fundamen- enforcement in the public. In addition, tal human rights and freedoms. systematic approach entails coordinated Fight against corruption is high on the involvement of all state authorities and priority list of the Republic of Serbia institutions, in compliance with their and therefore one of the priorities in the official power as defined by the Nation- work of the Ministry of Interior. al Strategy for fight against corruption (2013-2018) i.e. implementation of ac- Bearing in mind that corruption poses tivities foreseen by its implementing ac- one of the most prevalent threats that tion plan.

3.2. Forecasting trends in relation to corruption

n conformity with the Republic of try of Interior will continue to undertake Serbia National Strategy for fight measures and activities on prevention against corruption (2013-2018) and and suppression of all forms of corrup- Iits implementing action plan, the Minis- tion and particularly in the areas that

110 Strategic Assessment 3. SUPPRESSION OF CORRUPTION the Strategy recognizes as priorities: po- judiciary, police, spatial planning and litical activities, public finance, privati- construction, education and sport and zation and public- private partnership, media.

3.3. Recommendations

3.3.1. Improvement of normative framework and practical work

omestic legislation regulating ed by international institutions and or- the field of corruption has to be ganizations, including criminal- legal Daligned with documents adopt- regulations.

3.3.2. Strengthening of institutional and professional capacities

а) Enhance a proactive approach to terrorism and activities foreseen by the fight against corruptive criminal offenc- Action Plan for negotiating Chapter 23. es, along with detection, confiscation c) Enhance the work of the Sector for and seizure of any property derived or internal control of police and its fight obtained through commission of such against unlawful conduct of police of- criminal offence. ficers. Ensure implementation of inter- b) Establish a special organizational unit national standards related to profession- within the MOI, in compliance with the al conduct. Law on organization and competenc- d Continuous professional development es of the state authorities in the fight and training of police officers tasked against organized crime, corruption and with suppression of corruption.

3.3.3. Development of operational procedures

trengthen a proactive approach vestigations in parallel with criminal to detection of criminal offences investigation. with corruptive elements, includ- Sing checks and detection of property obtained by commission of criminal offences and initiation of financial -in

111 Public Security Strategic Assesment

3.3.4. Improving prevention

а) Timely and continuously analyze b) Promote integrity plans. risks and develop preventive plans for suppression of corruption.

3.3.5. Improving national, regional and international cooperation

mprove exchange of information pertaining to corruptive criminal offences on national, regional and in- Iternational level.

112 4. FIGHT AGAINST MISUSE OF INFORMATION-Strategic Assessment COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY

4.1. Summary of the priority

isuse of information- commu- emails to an organization’s employees nication technology (IT) is in- asking the recepients to transfer funds to evitable and on the rise among an account that the cyber criminal owns. Mthe criminal offences committed on the The cyber criminals will continue with territory of the Republic of Serbia. The ransom ware attacks- computer malware most common forms of the IT misuse that installs covertly on a victim's device are related to frauds, safety of comput- and encrypts the victim's files, making er data, sexual exploitation for juveniles them inaccessible, and demands a ran- and children for pornographic purpos- som payment in some of the virtual cur- es on the Internet, unauthorized use of rencies, such as bitcoin, to decrypt them. copyright or other related rights, endangering safety, terrorism and violent ex- The cyber criminals will continue to tremism that leads to terrorism. misuse credit card information on the web (card not present transactions). A Internet frauds will continue to occur in number of carding forums dedicated to different online auction schemes and ad- the obtaining and sharing of stolen card vertising sites along with romance scams information on the web will cause mis- (confidence frauds). The scammer es- use of payment cards belonging to for- tablishes a contact with his potential vic- eign citizens by offenders from the Re- tim and then continues to communicate public of Serbia along with misuse of the and develop emotional relationship and payment cards belonging to our citizens partnership. It is foreseen that the num- abroad, in order ensure illicit transac- ber of criminal offences against business tions and buying luxury goods. entities will be on rise and these include Business Compromised Email, CEO Perpetrators of the criminal offences frauds and Ransom ware. In the first against the computer data security (un- two cases cyber scammers will continue authorized access to a protected com- to intercept emails which business en- puter, computer network and e-process- tities from the territory of the Republic ing of data, creation and installment of of Serbia exchange with their business computer viruses, computer frauds and partners abroad. In the CEO frauds the sabotage) will continue to misuse IT cyber criminal has successfully hacked technology. To commit such criminal or spoofed the CEO’s email address and offences, they will use computer pro- pretends to be a chief, leader or director grams created to enable automated at- of an organization and sends targeted

113 Public Security Strategic Assesment

tacks on the web along with the domains ing life or limb of a victim or a person providing such services. related to the victim. Commission of In addition to criminal offences against such criminal offences will be continued the computer data security, the num- against both the citizens and holders of ber of the criminal offences committed state functions. They will use all avail- by misuse of IT technology is on the able means of communication over the rise. The number of criminal offences Internet: email services free of charge, against the computer data security and social networks, forums and comments other criminal offences with elements below the text published in electronic of misuse of the IT technology has been media. Perpetrators of these criminal growing rapidly because of its increasing offences will continue to perform their availability, simplified use and reduced covert operations taking care not to be price of computers and other devices. detected by state authorities- they will The number of the Internet users is on use the Internet services which, to their the rise as well as the speed of electronic opinion, will make it difficult for police data interchange. to obtain their identification data. Perpetrators of the criminal offences re- Perpetrators of criminal offences relat- lated to sexual exploitation of underage ed to terrorism and violent extremism persons and children for pornographic that leads to terrorism will continue to purposes on the Internet will continue to misuse IT technology for recruitment use network P2P (Peer to Peer) to obtain of new members, mutual communica- and/ exchange illicit audio-visual mate- tion, to conceal identity and withhold rial (photographs, video clips) created name, spread ideology and propagan- by sexual exploitation of the under aged da, radicalization and other criminal persons and children. They will contin- offences with the aim of making their ue to use different forums to share such dreams come true, including website illicit material and to find co-perpetra- defacement (attack on a website that tors, too. Social networks will continue changes the visual appearance of the site to pose a key method used for obtaining or a webpage), DDOS attacks and coun- and sharing material resulting from sex- seling potential offenders over the web- ual exploitation of the under aged per- sites and other communication channels sons and children for pornographic pur- to strengthen effects of terrorist attacks. poses on the Internet. Those networks They will continue to misuse services al- will be also used for establishing com- lowing users to transfer funds between munication with the under aged persons personal accounts using email and their and children and commission of crim- online banking services (e-money trans- inal offences against them. Other types fer) and misuse virtual currencies to fi- of communication such as VoIP (Voice nance terrorist activities. over IP) will be also used for establish- Misuse of copyright and misuse of indus- ing communication with the under aged trial property for non- industrial uses is persons and children. constantly growing. The subjects of the Perpetrators of the criminal offences re- criminal offence are works of foreign lated to endangering security will con- and domestic authors in the domain of tinue to misuse IT technology to send or music, film, software, computer games. announce threats with the aim of attack- The biggest problem is posed by illegal

114 Strategic Assessment copies of the latest movies, which sig- In the field of industrial property, on nificantly reduce the number of cinema the territory of the Republic of Serbia goers, along with domestic sitcoms and (mainly by the Internet use and e-adver- movies whose production is subsidized tisements) are sold fake pharmaceutical by the state. Due to such misuses the products (counterfeited medications) as state budget is deprived of the planned well as clothing and shoes of different inflow of money and the owners of copy- brands and other luxury goods (watches, right are deprived of economic profit re- glasses and perfumes) alized by sale and use of their own work.

4.2. Forecasting trends in relation to the Internet frauds (online scams)

а) Scammers will continue to use online e) The number of criminal offences auction schemes and advertising sites to where cyber criminals have successful- commit the Internet frauds. ly hacked or spoofed the CEO’s email b) Perpetrators of criminal offences will address and send targeted emails to an continue to misuse IT technology to organization’s employees pretending to conceal their identity and establish con- be their superiors (chief, manager or di- tact with their victims. rector) to deceive them and make them transfer funds to a certain account will c) Scammers will continue to rely on so- be on the rise. cial engineering and phishing to obtain detailed information about their victims f) The cyber criminals will continue with and misuse them to gain unlawful prop- ransom ware attacks- computer malware erty benefit. that encrypt electronic data on victims’ computers or business entities. d) Criminal offences committed to the detriment of business entities by use of g) The cyber criminals will continue to fraudulent emails and interception of misuse credit card information on the communication between business part- web (card not present transactions) for ners including instructions for transfer illicit transactions and buying luxury of funds to an account that the cyber goods. criminal owns (Business Compromised h) New forms of IT technology misuse Email) will be on the rise. in e-payment will occur.

115 Public Security Strategic Assesment

4.3. Forecasting trends in relation to criminal offences against computer data safety

а) Increase of the number of comput- mation system and therefore can cause er programs for automated attacks on damage to computer’s data of the organ- computer and computer networks and ization will be continued. systems, along with the increase of the d) Owing to increase of the malware-in- internet websites where such programs fected devices connected to the Internet, and services may be acquired (sellers and particularly due to development of post their ads on underground forums, the Internet of Things – IoT, DDOS at- darknet etc.) will lead to the increase of tacks (Distributed Denial of Service) the number of criminal offences in that will be more intensive and cause grow- area. ing damage. b) Services offering computer programs e) New technologies, such as the Inter- designed for attacks on computers and net of Things and Cloud computing, computer networks and systems (Crime along with the practice of bringing own ware as a Service – CaaS) will be more devices to work (BYOD), will increase frequently used for commission of crim- the intensity of attacks, their volume and inal offences especially because of con- damage they cause. stant reduction of the costs covered by their perpetrators. f) The number of criminal offences in the area of computer crime entailing c) Insider threats that come from people some of the APT techniques (Advance within the organization who have inside Persistent Threat – APT) will grow sig- information concerning the organiza- nificantly. tion’s security practices, data and infor-

4.4. Forecasting trends in relation to sexual exploitation of the minors for pornographic purposes on the Internet

а) It is foreseen that in parallel with the perpetrators who will post, download increase of the number of the Internet us- and share illicit material is expected. ers, including under aged persons using c) Perpetrators of criminal offences will Internet, in the Republic of Serbia will misuse information- communication grow the number of criminal offences technologies used by under aged per- in that area. Increased use of social net- sons to establish contact with them in works by under aged persons will pose a order to commit crime against them. particular challenge. b) P2P networks are increasingly available and the growth of the number of the

116 Strategic Assessment d) Perpetrators of criminal offences will e) Concealment of identity on the Inter- increasingly use closed internet forums net and placement of anonymous posts and possibilities of encryption of e-data. will be on the rise.

4.5. Forecasting trends in relation to endangering security

а) Increased misuse of IT technology with c) Social networks will be used for com- the aim of endangering security will be mission of criminal offences and conceal- continued. ment of identity of perpetrators of crimi- b) Perpetrators of criminal offences will nal offences. use cryptographic anonymity tools to conceal their identity and announce threats.

4.6. Forecasting trends in relation to terrorism and violent extremism that leads to terrorism

а) Criminals will continue to misuse d) Criminals will use old methods of forums, internet websites, social net- misuse of IT technologies for commis- works and other IT technologies to sion of other criminal offences that lead spread terrorist and extreme ideologies to achievement of terrorist goals and and propaganda, recruit new members, misuse new Internet services providing for communication and coordination of maximum effects with minor financial commission of criminal offences among investments (service Caas, offers com- them and their co-perpetrators. mission of the criminal offences includ- b) Criminals will use illegal sources on ing computer sabotage etc). the Internet, such as dark web, to obtain e) Virtual currencies, such as bit coin, means for commission of criminal of- will be used for financing terrorism and fences, find co-perpetrators etc. terrorist actions carried out by misuse of c) Criminals will misuse anonymity IT technologies. tools and possibility to conceal identity f) Information- communication tech- on the Internet to hide their traces and nologies in the area of e-commerce will activities. be misused with the aim of transferring and hiding origin of the money allocated for terrorist actions.

117 Public Security Strategic Assesment

4.7. Recommendations

4.7.1. Improvement of normative framework and practical work

mprove current normative framework, with particular regard to new Imanifestations.

4.7.2. Strengthening of institutional and professional capacities

а) Expand and enforce current HR and c) Analyze functionality of existing ca- material capacities of the MOI organi- pacities for digital forensics and change zational units specialized in combating the system in compliance with the latest cyber crime. developments. b) Train police members to fight against criminal offences committed by misuse of IT technologies.

4.7.3. Development of operational procedures

mprove practice and methodology and develop operational procedures for of police work in the process of de- obtainment of electronic evidence by Itecting digital evidence and traces search of a computer system.

4.7.4. Improving prevention

а) Develop qualitative analysis of the pre- c) Develop projects for preventive police ventive programs being carried out on the actions in cooperation with competent territory of the Republic of Serbia. ministries and institutions.. b) Develop a protocol on the police role in prevention of IT technology misuse.

118 Strategic Assessment

4.7.5. Improving national, regional and international cooperation

а) Enhance cooperation by active partic- c) Take active part in operations conducted ipation in the operation of the Council of by the Southeast European Law Enforce- Europe (CoE) 24/ 7 Network for ensuring ment Center-SELEC. speedy assistance among the parties, pur- d) Actively improve bilateral cooperation suant to the Convention on Cybercrime. in combating misuse of IT technologies. b) Take active part in EUROPOL focal e) Improve cooperation with civil society points and join new focal points focused organizations. on prevention of misuse in the area of IT technologies.

119 5. FIGHTPublic SecurityAGAINST Strategic Assesment TERRORISM AND VIOLENT EXTREMISM THAT LEADS TO TERRORISM

5.1. Summary of the priority

errorism is among the high- Balkan region realistic. In addition, it is ranked threats to global, region- a fact that the latest terrorist attacks in al and national security given Europe showed tendency to cause more Tits manifestations and consequences it and more victims, which additionally leads to. With that regard, it is marked augments existing public fear of terror- in global strategic documents, including ism. New methods of commission of European Agenda on Security and other particular terrorist actions were demon- international documents whose signato- strated in the places where a lot of people ry is the Republic of Serbia, along with gather together along with new forms of domestic strategic documents, including terrorism. Being one of the phenomena National Security Strategy and Defense that most drastically endanger security, Strategy of the Republic of Serbia. The terrorism attracts particular attention Strategy on Prevention and Fight against due to its connection to various forms of Terrorism has been drafted including its organized crime. implementing Action Plan. The continuous threat of terrorism in There are numerous factors that make Serbia originates, primarily, from radical terrorism one of the priorities in the Islamism in the environment and ethni- public security area. Firstly, a line of ter- cally motivated violent extremism that rorist attacks committed in the previous leads to terrorism. There is a danger of period in certain European cities, along potential presence of members of terror- with expansion of terrorism on the Mid- ist groups and organizations among the dle East and North of Africa, that alto- migrants who are transiting the territory gether make fear of its spreading to the of the Republic of Serbia.

5.2. Forecasting trends

otential security risks and terrorist which they participated as part of ter- threats can originate from: rorist groups and organizations, may а) Nationals of the Republic of become instigators, recruiters or execu- P tors of terrorist acts in the Republic of Serbia and foreign nationals who, on their return from armed conflicts in Serbia;

120 Strategic Assessment b) Radical Islamists and followers of d) ethnically motivated terrorist organ- terrorist organizations that exert influ- izations that have capacity to conduct ence on their environment (recruitment, terrorist attacks; radicalization and financing); e) domestic and foreign terrorist fight- c) Individuals (often self-radicalized) ers from European countries who transit devoted to radical ideologies, who have Serbia to joint terrorist groups and or- not been recorded as persons of interest ganizations; (i.e. individuals carrying out criminal f) illegal trafficking and smuggling of all activities) and have never participated types of weapons and dual use goods, in any extreme or terrorist activities; and g) flow of capital that can be used for financing terrorism.

5.3. Recommendations

5.3.1. Improvement of normative framework and practical work

а) Adopt Strategy on Prevention and law, relevant resolutions of the UN Se- Fight against Terrorism and its imple- curity Council and ratified international menting Action Plan. legal instruments and thus, with respect b) Constantly make interventions in to assumed international obligations, normative framework to ensure compli- establish a normative framework suit- ance of positive legislation of the Repub- able for efficient detection, criminal lic of Serbia in that area with the gener- prosecution and trial of terrorists and ally accepted provisions of international their supporters.

5.3.2. Strengthening of institutional and professional capacities

а) Continuously improve normative and b) Continuously improve system for com- institutional framework, strengthen human bating terrorism financing in the Republic and material resources of police and intelli- of Serbia. gence- security capacities, with the aim of c) Improve capacities of the Service for increasing capabilities for efficient tackling Fight against Terrorism and Extremism threats of terrorism and violent extremism within the Criminal Police Directorate that leads to terrorism. through training of police officers and enhancing HR and material-technical resources

121 Public Security Strategic Assesment

5.3.3. Development of operational procedures

а) Improve operational capacities of the that can be brought into connection Service for Fight against Terrorism and with terrorism and violent extremism Extremism within the Criminal Police that leads to terrorism. Directorate through training for work in c) Promote operative work of police of- joint investigation teams. ficers by improvement of operational b) Establish single national data base on data. persons of interest (i.e. individuals car- d) Develop conduct procedures before, rying out criminal activities) and events during and after terrorist acts..

5.3.4. Improving prevention

а) Undertake measures and activities self-government and institutions, en- on raising awareness of the citizens so hance capacities to undertake planned that they could better understand threats and coordinated measures aimed at cre- posed by terrorism and timely alarm ation of an environment where young competent authorities, with the aim of people will not be motivated to accept preventing terrorist attacks and their ideologies of terrorism, and capacities consequences. of individuals to recognize radicaliza- b) In cooperation with various social tion and thus narrow terrorist recruit- actors, including state authorities, local ment base.

5.3.5. Improving national, regional and international cooperation

а) Improve cooperation at national level b) Develop HR, material- technical and by exchange of data and establishment professional capacities of police with of full coordination between all state au- the aim of enhancing cooperation with thorities of the Republic of Serbia com- international organizations competent petent to fight against terrorism and vi- to fight against terrorism and violent ex- olent extremism that leads to terrorism. tremism that leads to terrorism.

122 6. IMPROVING PUBLIC PEACE AND ORDERStrategic Assessment BY CONFRONTING VIOLENCE WITH PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO VIOLENCE AT SPORTING EVENTS,

SCHOOLS AND PUBLIC PLACES

6.1. Summary of the priority

stable peace and order situation In terms of security, maintenance of a is one of the key democratic stable peace and order situation is based principles which enable citizens on efficient policing in daily work, bal- Aand communities to exercise their hu- anced spatial- timely engagement in man and minority rights, unimpeded public spaces and achievement of secu- function of legal order and development rity protection of citizens and property, of social- economic life. with respect of security priorities and Maintenance of a stable peace and order needs of citizens and local communities. situation requires continuous engage- In its efforts to maintain a stable peace ment of competent state authorities and and order situation and ensure security their aspiration, in cooperation with protection, police cooperates with other other social actors, citizens and com- state authorities, citizens, communities munities, to prevention and control of and civil society, to build and strengthen security risks and threats that can vio- security partnerships and develop pre- late public peace and order to a small or ventive measures. great extent. To maintain a stable peace and order sit- Occurrence and presence of physical and uation, for police are very important the other types of violence in public places, extent, trends and structure of the fol- public gatherings and sporting events, lowing security elements: school areas and other places pose secu- а) number and type of public gatherings rity risk that could endanger stability of and number of gathered participants; public peace and order. b) number of domestic and internation- Police is charged with maintaining sta- al sporting events and manifestations; ble peace and order and they carry out their activities with the aim of providing c) volume of offences against public every citizen equal protection of securi- peace and order and volume of violent ty, rights and freedoms. crime and acts of violence at sporting events;

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d) violent delicts committed by or against to all types of violence and violation of juveniles in the school areas, public plac- public peace and order. es, in addition to social networks. In addition, public peace and order are e) events including elements of intoler- also affected by the following social- ance due to national, religious and other economic factors: social- political situ- types of diversity; ation in the country and environment, f) presence of illegal migration and asy- development of economy and tourism, lum seekers; increase in the number of foreign nationals who visit the country or transit g) level of furnishment and development the country, development of the private of training, cooperation and contempo- security sector and new types of techni- rary standards in police confrontation cal security protection.

6.2. Forecasting parameters and certain aspects that exert influence on the public peace and order situation

а) Number of public assemblies and task of police. Police will continuous- sporting events in the forthcoming peri- ly observe the security of pupils and od will be close to multi annual average. schools, exert influence on sources that b) Police will strive to reduce the num- pose threats to safety, undertake meas- ber of delicts including elements of vio- ures in cooperation with schools, prose- lence in public places by efficient work cutor’s office and social care institutions. and actions. f) The number of delicts committed c) Police will improve its work by prob- against socially vulnerable groups, lem oriented actions and adjusted spa- based on national, religious and other tial- timely engagement with the aim of grounds, will continue to decrease. Po- preventing violence in public places and lice work will focus on support to broad initiating criminal proceedings against social activities related to improve- persons who violate public peace and ment of human and minority rights and order. strengthening of tolerance. d) Police proactive activities will be fo- g) Full enforcement of the Law on Pri- cused on venues (public space), situa- vate Security will contribute to develop- tions (gatherings) and repeat offenders ment of partnership between the private to ensure prevention of delicts commit- security sector and police in providing ted by persons under the influence of protection of security of the citizens psychoactive substances and alcohol us- and property and maintenance of public ing physical strength and cold weapons. peace and order at public assemblies. e) Security protection of children and h) In compliance with IT developments, youngsters from all types of violence further improvements of the technical and crime will continue to be a priority protection systems in public venues and

124 Strategic Assessment on public places gathering a lot of citizens operation with media will be continued i.e. primary and secondary schools, should to ensure objective and timely informa- lead to better prevention and reduction in tion to the public, particularly in relation the number of delicts against public peace to the facts important for maintenance of and order, better quality of collected ev- the stable public peace and order situa- idence and adequate court proceedings tion and security protection. initiated against the offenders. k) Police will promote its work by the i) Owing to its developments in econ- use of contemporary information tech- omy and tourism, Serbia will host an nologies: it will improve communication increasing number of foreign nationals with the public via its official website, who will be attending sporting events promote its activities and good practice and cultural- entertaining events. In that and develop partnership with citizens regard, a particular emphasis will be and communities. attached to improvement and develop- l) Police capacities for efficient main- ment of international police cooperation tenance of public peace and order will to ensure timely exchange of intelli- be enhanced by constant training of its gence and information. members and improvement of its mate- j) With respect to dynamic development rial- technical conditions. of telecommunication, role and importance of information technologies, co-

6.3. Recommendations 6.3.1. Improvement of normative framework and practical work

а) With respect to generally defined lice, propose amendments to the laws international standards, continuously and further develop bylaws, instructions undertake activities focused on devel- and guidelines for maintenance of the opment of international positive- legal public peace and order stability. regulations in the field of public peace c) Within Serbia’s EU accession negoti- and order. ations, undertake activities focused on b) In compliance with contemporary in- implementation of Action Plans related ternational professional police standards to Chapter 23 and 24, with the aim of ( particularly in the EU) and with respect aligning domestic positive- legal regula- to opinions of the professional members tions with EU decisions, directives and of the public and community, follow en- recommendations. forcement of the new legislation by po-

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6.3.2. Strengthening of institutional and professional capacities

he priorities should include: of good practice and strengthening pre- а) adaptation of organizational ventive activities; Tstructure to security challenges and d) admission and employment of po- needs of the citizens and communities; lice officers, basic training, professional b) adequate sufficiency, professional development and system of career de- competence and equipment of police; velopment, that should contribute to further professionalism and improved c) improved performance by adoption work and performance of police officers, of contemporary standards, recognition along with general enhancement of institutional capacities.

6.3.3. Development of operational procedures

а) Continue to improve current modi c) On the grounds of experience and operandi to strengthen all elements collected information, perform security of police work, primarily by gather- analysis focused on problems, geo-spa- ing appropriate information, analyzing tial and time distribution and interop- threats, planning activities, cooperation erability. In compliance with contem- and inclusion of other security actors, porary standards and with respect to efficient activities and review of results attitudes of other relevant actors, plan accomplished in maintenance of the police activities to ensure stable public public peace and order. peace and order. b) Improve methods of collection and d) Continue to improve police equip- share of operational information and ment to ensure efficient confrontation security related interesting information with existing and new forms of violence on potential forms of endangering pub- (particularly physical violence), using lic peace and order along with support contemporary means of protection and to the process of police planning and training on use of contemporary means decision making, primarily within in- of coercion as prescribed by law, which telligence led policing and appropriate ensure accomplishment of police goals international and national cooperation. with least harmful consequences.

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6.3.4. Improving prevention

а) Intensify activities on improvement holders in the work on creation of secure of prevention of delicts against public conditions for their social development. peace and order, primarily through com- e) Continue to provide support to wider munity policing and providing support social strategy and national programs, to development of positive social val- with a clear understanding that a prob- ues, responsible behavior and tolerance lem of violence can be solved in the long to legitimate diversity. run and only by institutional efforts and b) Continue to develop community development of multi-sectoral coopera- policing as contemporary democratic tion and partnership with civil society. model of policing. In cooperation with This includes the following activities: citizens and communities, work on pre- • Provide support to social consensus on vention and solving local security prior- unacceptability of violence and devel- ities and problems. opment of tolerance to diversity; c) Improve direct communication with • Promote positive values in media; citizens and enhance partnership with community through development of po- • Exchange of local experience and ex- lice ethics. amples of good practice on national level; d) Continue to improve protection of • Implement adequate preventive and pupils/students and schools through im- educative measures aimed at children plementation of preventive- educational and youngsters; activities and raising awareness on secu- • Include relevant partners and stake- rity, non-violence and tolerance. Ensure holders in implementation of security active participation of all relevant stake- prevention.

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6.3.5. Improving national, regional and international cooperation

а) In cooperation with relevant state organizations active in the field of se- authorities and other stakeholders, curity i.e. on regional and international through joint efforts, exchange of infor- conferences and seminars to ensure ex- mation and merge of resources, proceed change of good practice and experienc- with continuous activities aimed at more es, adoption of contemporary standards efficient fight against violence and so- in police work and evaluation of current cially unacceptable behavior. Bearing in security trends and initiatives, especially mind that efficient fight against violence in the region and EU member states. can be achieved by appropriate social c) Continue to participate in the work reaction (primarily on normative and of Council of Europe Standing Commit- operational level), strive towards estab- tee- the body in charge of monitoring lishment of cooperation with all relevant application of the European Convention state institutions. on Spectator Violence and Misbehavior b) Continuous participation in relevant at Sports Events, in particular football European and international bodies and matches.

128 7. IMPROVEMENT OF TRAFFIC SAFETY ON THE Strategic Assessment STATE ROADS INCLUDING THE STATE ROADS PASSING THROUGH THE SETTLEMENTS

7.1. Summary of the priority

mprovement of the road traffic safety ument, along with the increase of the is one of the priorities of the Ministry number of participants in the road traf- of Interior and wider social commu- fic in Serbia, in the forthcoming period Inity. Given the continuous development can be expected increase of possibilities of the road infrastructure, along with for occurrence of traffic accidents. geographic position of the Republic of It is foreseen that technological develop- Serbia, in the forthcoming period can ments, contemporary road infrastruc- be expected increased number of partic- ture and creation of adequate legal envi- ipants in the state road traffic. Traffic ac- ronment (primarily through alignment cidents are the most important negative with the EU’s acquis communautaire effect of the road traffic which causes and adoption of good practice estab- immense human and material loss. lished in other countries) can have posi- Given the nature and amount of costs tive influence on the traffic safety on the presented in the section on the road traf- state roads in the forthcoming period. fic security analysis of the present doc-

7.2. Forecasting trends in relation to the traffic safety on the state roads

а) Increase of the number of the traffic c) Development of road infrastructure participants on the state roads in Serbia that meets contemporary standards and will contribute to endangering traffic control of roads by professionals will safety. have a positive impact on traffic safety b) Amendments to legislation regulating on the state roads. road traffic safety, primarily its align- d) Strengthening of HR and material ca- ment with the EU’s acquis communau- pacities of traffic police, which will con- taire, will have beneficial effects on traf- tribute to increased presence of traffic fic security on the state roads in Serbia. police on state roads and more efficient control of traffic participants, will have positive impact on traffic security.

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e) New forms of work introduced by state roads) are expected to have positive traffic police (speed control at night, -au impact on traffic safety.. tomated control of average speed on the

7.3. Recommendations

7.3.1. Improvement of normative framework and practical work

а) Adopt law on amendments to the Law c) Implementation of the EU’s acquis on traffic safety in conformity with legis- communautaire in the national and leg- lation regulating road traffic safety issues. islative framework. b) Continue with implementation of the Republic of Serbia Road Traffic Safety Strategy 2015-2020.

7.3.2. Strengthening of institutional and professional capacities

а) Deliver trainings and courses to traffic b) Create conditions for deployment of officers regarding control and regulation a number of traffic officers in traffic con- of traffic, traffic accident scene investi- trol on the state roads and enhance ma- gation and other areas with the aim of terial capacities of traffic police. ensuring more efficient work of traffic c) Ensure increased use of devices in- police. tended for automated traffic control.

7.3.3. Development of operational procedures

а) Implement uniformed practice and c) Improve organization and evaluation methodology of work in traffic control of work of traffic police along with its carried out by traffic police. cooperation with other lines of work b) Coordinated and targeted operations (within the organization) on suppression carried out by traffic police focused on of crime and other violations of the law. detection of delicts and their perpetrators in the field of road traffic safety.

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7.3.4. Improving prevention

а) Plan and establish cooperation with c) Take part and assist in campaigns and other state authorities, scientific institu- other activities organized with the aim of tions, business entities, local communi- improving road traffic safety. ties, civil society organizations and inter- d) Make people acquainted with the traf- national organizations competent to deal fic police work and promote its activities with traffic security. in media. b) Plan and enable education and improvement of position of the vulnerable categories of the traffic participants.

7.3.5. Improving national, regional and international cooperation

а) Organize study visits aimed at improve- c) Improve established forms of cooper- ment of work and exchange of experience ation with stakeholders by initiation or with foreign police services. acceptance of constructive initiatives for b) Improve regional and international co- cooperation with actors (partners) dealing operation through organization of bilateral with traffic safety. meetings and participation in European Traffic Police Network-TISPOL.

131 8. IRREGULARPublic Security Strategic MIGRATION Assesment AND HUMAN SMUGGLING

8.1. Summary of the priority

eostrategic position of the Repub- destination. Owing to the undertaken lic of Serbia clearly indicates the measures focused on suppression of mi- threat of the increased migration gration on the central- Mediterranean Gpressure confirmed by the fact that from and east- Mediterranean route, in mid Greece towards Hungary, as towards EU 2015, western Balkan route became the countries, via our country, an immigra- most prevalent one. Given the fact that tion route is passing to reach Western Eu- the Republic of Serbia holds a central rope countries as final destination position on that route, the number of Migration wave from Africa and Asia migrants transiting its territory in 2015 during 2015 and 2016 significantly in- increased by 15 times. creased demand for the services provid- The high volume of irregular migration ed by the human smugglers. Criminal can be illustrated by the fact that in 2015 groups and individuals quickly adapted on the territory of the Republic of Ser- to the situation and reoriented their ac- bia were registered 599.033 irregular tivities on human smuggling in order migrants out of whom 97% expressed to make big profit. According to EU- intention to seek asylum. That clearly ROPOL data, more than 90% of the mi- points out one of the main characteris- grants who arrived to Europe had used tics of the migration flow: misuse of the services provided by human smugglers. international protection mechanisms. In the course of the first 11 months of 2016, the number of registered irregular mi- Irregular migration grants reached almost 110.000. Migration policy of the neighboring coun- Migration flows underwent critical tries, primarily Hungary and Croatia, fo- changes due to eruption of conflicts in cused on forestalling migrant flows to the Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq along with territory of EU member states resulted in conflicts in Africa. Political, social and longer stay of the migrants on the territo- economic problems additionally insti- ry of the Republic of Serbia against their gated migration flows toward Europe. will: according to current records, there Owing to its geographic position, the are about 6 000 -7 000 registered migrants Republic of Serbia was on the route used on its territory on daily basis. by the migrants who left their countries of origin, travelling over Turkey, striving According to UNHCR, in the first eleven to reach EU member states as their final months of 2016, 173.208 irregular mi-

132 8. IRREGULAR MIGRATION AND Strategic Assessment

HUMAN SMUGGLING grants entered the territory of Greece and dated in the reception centers is using that was a significant drop as compared psychoactive substances and thus create with 2015 (856.728 irregular migrants). opportunities for commission of other According to the records provided by criminal offences. They have a negative non-governmental organization ‘’ Greek impact on the economy of the country Forum of Migrants there are 577.000 since it is necessary to allocate certain registered migrants on the territory of financial funds for humanitarian care Greece. As per European Commission of the migrants along with health care data, the territory of Greece is entered and epidemiological protection given by 92 persons (on average) on daily basis the fact that a certain number of the mi- and so far 1.187 persons have been read- grants enter the territory of the Republic mitted in compliance with bilateral pro- of Serbia having a contagious disease. tocol on readmission between Turkey and Greece. In addition, 6.212 persons were relocated from Greece to different Human smuggling European countries. The current situation in Greece indicates the volume of The fact that favors human smuggling is further migration pressure and makes that the migration pressure is difficult to the threat even more serious. control and oversee along with the fact that a majority of the migrants holds no The impact of irregular migration to identification documents and an inter- the internal security is extremely large. view with them is impeded by a language The territory of the Republic of Serbia barrier (migrants mostly speak Urdu or is transited and resided by a number Pashto and there is a lack of translators/ of migrants whose identity, origin and interpreters). Insufficient HR and tech- even intention cannot be determined. nical capacities create problems, too. In Additional risk lies in the fact that those addition, there are difficulties in mon- are people who come from the countries itoring communication between mi- with prevalent activities of radical reli- grants and smugglers since the whole gious and terrorist groups. Irregular mi- procedure included in the organization grants appear as perpetrators of criminal of smuggling is conducted on different offences, including serious criminal of- languages. Moreover, human smuggling fences (aggravated murder and attempt- generates other criminal offences and ed murder). Presence of the large num- thus increases the rate of crime while, on ber of the migrants in accommodating the other hand, it is very difficult to -as facilities increases security risk. A cer- certain and prove their connection. tain number of the migrants accommo-

8.2. Forecasting trends in relation to irregular migration

а) Intensity and direction of flows of policy of the EU member states, other the migrants from the Middle East will states and international institutions. depend on the orientation of the public

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b) When the problem with ISIS (Islamic solved, migration flow will decline and State of Iraq and Syria) and conflicts in migrants will commence to return to Syria between the insurgents and forc- Turkey and Syria. If it doesn’t happen, es of the President Bashar al- Assaid are the migration flow will increase.

8.3. Forecasting trends in relation to human smuggling

а) The number of offenders and cases of key and Lebanon where the largest mi- human smuggling will primarily depend grations’ camps are located. on the trends and pressures of irregular c) In the event that there are no positive migration, as well as decisions and mea- developments in the resolution of the sures taken by the states- the state of ori- conflicts in the Middle East and reach- gin and the state of final destination. ing agreement with Turkey, the irreg- b) To a great extent, human smuggling ular migration flow can become even trends will depend on the measures more intensive. Even though the EU taken by the EU towards the countries makes efforts to stunt the flow, it will affected with armed conflicts (Syria, cause increase of the human smuggling Afghanistan and Iraq), as well as Tur- offences.

8.4. Recommendations

8.4.1. Improvement of normative framework and practical work

а) Align domestic legislation with the b) Develop new strategic document on EU regulations and standards. combating irregular migration.

8.4.2. Strengthening of institutional and professional capacities

а) Enhance HR capacities and improve irregular migrants as well as performing technical equipment of the organiza- operations and evidence collecting. tional units charged with combating ir- c) Provide specific forms of professional regular migration. development and training in the field of b) Provide translators/ interpreters and suppression of irregular migration and forensic linguists for communication with human smuggling

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8.4.3. Development of operational procedures

а) Intensify intelligence activities in rela- c) Carry out activities aimed at faster tion to suppression of human smuggling adaptation of police work to new modi and irregular migration. operandi of human smugglers.. b) Develop operational plans in compliance with conclusions deriving from risk analysis and performed assessments.

8.4.4. Improving prevention

а) Establish efficient mechanisms for b) Establish efficient mechanisms for exchange of information and early readmission of migrants to their coun- warning systems on national, regional tries of origin. and international level.

8.4.5. Improving national, regional and international cooperation

а) Intensify cooperation with police ser- d) Improve exchange of data and oper- vices of the neighboring countries, states ational cooperation with states located located along the routes and migrants’ along the routes of the irregular mi- countries of origin, as well as coopera- grants and human smugglers. tion with EUROPOL, SELEC and Euro- e) Intensify cooperation with other state pean Border and Coast Guard Agency- authorities vested with powers to deal FRONTEX. with irregular migrants and perpetra- b) Intensify joint operations on state tors of criminal offences related to irreg- borders. ular migration (BIA, VBA, Ministry of c) Participate in joint operations on re- Labor, Employment, Veteran and Social gional and international level. Affairs, Commissariat Office for Refu- gees and Migration, etc).

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