REPUBLIC OF SERBIA MINISTRY OF INTERIOR PUBLIC SECURITY STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT PUBLIC VERSION Belgrade, 2017 PUBLIC SECURITY STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT Publisher MINISTRY OF INTERIOR OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA Bulevar Mihajla Pupina 2а, 11000 Belgrade, Republic of Serbia website: www.mup.gov.rs, E-mail: [email protected] For publisher Police General VLADIMIR REBIĆ Police Director Working Group for Preparation of the Public Security Strategic Assesment and Strategic Plan of Police Working Group Chairman BOGOLJUB ŽIVKOVIĆ Assistant Police Director Working Group Deputy Chairman BRANISLAV TONČIĆ Deputy Head of the Police Director’s Bureau Members of the Working Group ILIJA RACIĆ, SINIŠA MILKOVIĆ, IVAN BRANDIĆ, OLIVERA ARSENOVIĆ, BOJANA NOŽICA, MILJAN ĐOROVIĆ, BOJAN MILOJIČIĆ, BOJAN MARKOVIĆ, DEJAN MILANKOVIĆ, NIKOLA NOVAKOVIĆ, DRAGANA STOJADINOVIĆ, DRAGAN POPADIĆ, VLADIMIR UROŠEVIĆ, SLAVIŠA LAKIĆEVIĆ, DUŠAN MARKOVIĆ, SAŠA ARSENIJEVIĆ, TANJA ŠAJTINAC, IGOR MIKIĆ, MIROLJUB KOLAREVIĆ, DRAGAN MIJATOVIĆ, TANJA ĐORĐEVIĆ Editor Prof. ZORAN ĐURĐEVIĆ, PhD Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies Proofreading: MARJA BRANDIĆ Copyediting: IVANA ĐERMANOVIĆ Computer printset JOVAN PAVLOVIĆ Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies Circulation 100 copies Printing of the publication was fiancially supported by the Swedish Government ISBN 978-86-83397-25-9 Content CONTENT I INTRODUCTION 1 II SUMMARY 5 III METHODOLOGY 13 IV STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 19 1. CRIME SITUATION AND TRENDS ...................................................................... 21 1.1. Total crime volume ............................................................................................. 21 1.2. Organized crime .................................................................................................. 24 1.2.1. Organized criminal groups – situation and tendencies..........................24 1.2.2. Crime areas .................................................................................................. 26 1.3. General crime ...................................................................................................... 30 1.3.1. Criminal offences covered by general crime– according to areas ........ 32 1.3.1.1. Criminal offences against life and limb ............................................ 32 1.3.1.2. Criminal offences against sexual freedoms ...................................... 34 1.3.1.3. Domestic violence ............................................................................... 35 1.3.1.4. Criminal offences against property ................................................... 36 1.3.1.5. Drugs ..................................................................................................... 41 1.3.1.6. Illegal possession of firearms ............................................................. 44 1.3.1.7. Criminal offences against cultural property .................................... 45 1.3.1.8. Juvenile crime ...................................................................................... 47 1.3.2. General crime to the detriment of vulnerable groups ........................... 49 1.3.2.1. Criminal acts to the detriment of the minors .................................. 49 1.4. Economic crime .................................................................................................. 52 1.5. Corruption ........................................................................................................... 56 1.6. Cyber crime ......................................................................................................... 59 1.6.1. Internet fraud .............................................................................................. 59 1.6.2. Computer data security.............................................................................. 61 1.6.3. Sexual exploitation of juveniles for pornography on the Internet ....... 62 V Public Security Strategic Assesment 1.6.4. Criminal offences against copyrights and other related rights ............. 64 1.6.5. Security treat on the Internet .................................................................... 64 1.6.6. Теrrorism and violent extremism that leads to terrorism ..................... 65 1.7. Environmental crime .......................................................................................... 65 2. TERRORISM AND EXTREMISM ........................................................................... 69 2.1. Теrrorism .............................................................................................................. 69 2.2. Еxtremism ............................................................................................................ 70 3. PUBLIC PEACE AND ORDER ................................................................................ 71 3.1. Public assemblies – security threats ................................................................. 71 3.2. Sports events – security threats ......................................................................... 73 3.3. School security .................................................................................................... 74 3.4. Violation of public peace and order ................................................................. 75 3.5. Criminal offences against general duties police officers ............................... 77 4. TRAFFIC SAFETY ..................................................................................................... 79 4.1. Traffic accidents and their consequences ......................................................... 81 4.2. Structure of casualties in traffic accidents ........................................................ 82 4.3. Factors thaut cause traffic accidents ................................................................. 84 4.4. Traffic accidents on the state roads of the Republic of Serbia and factors that cause them according to Common Accident Data Set (CADaS) ............................................................. 85 4.5. Detected misdemeanors and criminal offences against the road traffic safety ............................................................................. 86 5. BORDER SAFETY AND FOREIGN NATIONALS ............................................... 87 5.1. Flow of passengers .............................................................................................. 87 5.2. Cross-border crime ............................................................................................. 88 5.3. Irregular migration and smuggling of human beings .................................... 91 5.4. Foreing nationals ................................................................................................. 93 5.4.1. Criminal offences committed by migrants andto the detriment of the migrants ........................................................ 93 6. ADMINISTRATIVE AFFAIRS ................................................................................. 95 6.1.Readmission .......................................................................................................... 95 6.2. Registration of residence of the persons from the region of Kosovo and Metohija with the aim of applying for/getting a passport ............................. 97 6.3. Legally invisible persons .................................................................................... 98 6.4. Third country nationals and stateless persons ................................................ 99 6.5. Lawful possession of weapon by citizens ......................................................... 99 VI Content V STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT 101 1. ORGANIZED CRIME .............................................................................................. 104 2. SUPRESSION OF THE PRODUCTION AND SMUGGLING OF DRUGS WITH A PARTICULAR FOCUS ON MARIJUANA AND SYNTHETIC DRUG ...................................................................................... 106 2.1. Summary of the priority ................................................................................... 106 2.2. Forecasting trends in relation to marijuana .................................................. 107 2.3. Forecasting trends in relation to synthetic drugs ......................................... 108 2.4. Recommendations ............................................................................................ 108 2.4.1. Improvement of normative framework and practical work ................ 108 2.4.2. Strengthening of institutional and professional capacities .................. 108 2.4.3. Development of operational procedures ............................................... 109 2.4.4. Improving prevention .............................................................................. 109 2.4.5. Improving national, regional and international cooperation ............. 109 3. SUPRESSION OF CORRPUTION ......................................................................... 110 3.1. Summary of the priority ................................................................................... 110 3.2. Forecasting trends in relation to corruption ................................................. 110 3.3. Recommendations ............................................................................................ 111 3.3.1. Improvement of normative framework and practical work ................ 111 3.3.2. Improvement of institutional and professional capacities ................... 111 3.3.3. Development of operational procedures ..............................................