FROM THE ’S OFFICE TO THE PMO — WHERE ARE THE CANDIDATES?

Charles McMillan

Canadian political history stands in contrast to that of the the US, where 18 governors have become president and 16 presidents, including the incumbent, were US senators. In , only one premier, Sir , became prime minister. Sitting premiers or past premiers today face huge obstacles on the national scene. A sitting premier, even one who is from a very large province or who has strong regional support, is unlikely ever to win a leadership race, let alone win a federal election.

L’histoire politique du Canada diffère nettement de celle des États-Unis, où 18 gouverneurs ont accédé à la Maison-Blanche et 16 présidents, y compris Barack Obama, ont été sénateurs. Ici, un seul premier ministre provincial, sir Charles Tupper, a pu prendre la direction du pays, ce qui témoigne des obstacles presque insurmontables qui freinent l’ascension des premiers ministres provinciaux anciens ou actuels sur la scène nationale. Un premier ministre en poste, même s’il est à la tête d’une grande province et jouit de solides appuis régionaux, n’a guère de chances de remporter une course à la direction et moins encore une élection fédérale.

t might sound like a trick question for Trivial Pursuit, and US states have budgets much smaller than the economies it is this: How many premiers in Canada have become and budgets of the biggest Canadian provinces, although I prime minister? The short answer may seem surprising: several presidents, including Ronald Reagan and George W. only one, Sir Charles Tupper, and he served only a short time Bush, were governors of very large states, California and period in this august office, and his role as premier of Nova Texas. Governors gain executive experience and they learn to Scotia had little to do with his assuming the leadership of the work with both sides of the political aisle. More recently, US Conservative Party. From before Confederation in 1867, governors on the rise have taken on national roles, including Tupper was a close friend and confident of Sir John A. as spokesmen for all US governors on such issues as educa- Macdonald, and he had served as minister in numerous port- tion, infrastructure and health, gaining widespread media folios in the federal government. Tupper also had been High exposure, financial campaign support and clever media use Commissioner to the UK after a dispute with John A. (curi- of the incumbent’s weaknesses — Ronald Reagan’s attacks on ously, he also was minister of finance in 1887-88) without Jimmy Carter, or Bill Clinton’s laser beam attacks on eco- surrendering his post in ). Tupper was seen as a natu- nomic policies and the foreign policy forays of the two ral successor to John A., and after Macdonald’s death in 1891, George Bushes. a succession of leaders floundered, and the party and cabinet pressed Tupper to return. He became prime minister in May here are factors why governors have an inside edge on the 1896, only to face election defeat to ’s rising T way to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The US election system Liberal Party. He stayed in for four years as Opposition is actually 50 state elections, because the tortuous Electoral leader, then returned to London, where he died in 1915. College determines who becomes president, and many states The fact that premiers haven’t climbed to what Disraeli are safe elections either for the Democrats (e.g., New York and called the “top of the greasy pole” may seem a true oddity of California) or for the Republicans (e.g., Texas and Utah). Indeed, the Canadian political landscape in a federal system, where recent national elections for president show that the actual many provinces are proportionally bigger than US states. swing states are quite few, especially Ohio, so despite wide- Indeed, Canadian political history stands in stark contrast to spread national campaigning, presidential campaigns are really the US system, where 18 governors have become president, tied to the swing states and the US primary system to seek a and 16 presidents, including the present incumbent, were US party leader is dedicated to finding a candidate who can win the senators (see table 1). Why the difference? In general, most swing states. In theory, at least, governors are a natural fit.

84 OPTIONS POLITIQUES JUIN-JUILLET 2012 From the premier’s office to the PMO — Where are the candidates?

This US model is in sharp contrast minister, however much disguised as Ottawa cultivated a truism of political sci- with the parliamentary system, with the and cabinet solidarity, came from ence in Canada that the real checks and modern version of party discipline, her loss of real authority in her cabinet, balances come from provinces that elect- highly organized political parties and and John Major assumed the role as ed a government of a different party the special role of the elected caucus as party leader and prime minister. All done stripe than the government in Ottawa. As the front line system of checks and bal- in a leadership putsch in 24 hours! they used to say in : “Bleu à ances. Indeed, most Commonwealth Québec, rouge à Ottawa.” They said the prime ministerial leadership races date ntil the late 20th century, at a same thing in during the 42-year from the model used in Britain. U superficial level, Canadian party Conservative reign from 1943 to 1985, Historically, the key deciding actors are leadership models emulated the British which pretty much coincided with a the monarchy, the elected caucus and system, with some differences. Clearly, Liberal hegemony in Ottawa. the party at large. One might argue that the Crown played almost no role, Like many truisms, it has an air of Britain has changed the least among direct or indirect, even when the gov- truth, but there are as many examples with the opposite position: Canadian political history stands in stark contrast to the US system, elect a government that where 18 governors have become president, and 16 presidents, works closely with our including the present incumbent, were US senators. cousins in Ottawa. In recent years, for instance, there Commonwealth countries, and Canada ernor general was a British citizen. were seven provinces with a Progressive is the most advanced, even (Some did influence policy direction.) Conservative Party banner during Brian Americanized, in how to choose a party The Liberals were the dominant party, Mulroney’s huge 1984 majority. Jean leader. ruling in Ottawa for most of the 20th Chrétien’s Liberal government in Even in the 20th century, British century with a carefully calibrated Ottawa had Liberal governments in party leaders came not from the party at rotation of francophone and anglo- Ontario, Quebec, BC, large, but from their support in the cau- phone leaders. Starting in 1919, the and PEI. Even today, with a majority cus, elected members of the House of Liberal Party actually changed leaders Conservative government in Ottawa, Commons and caucus leaders in the only six times (1919, 1948, 1958, four provinces have governments of the House of Lords. — 1968, 1984 and 1990), and cabinet same political stripe. owing to his trenchant criticism of vari- insiders had a huge strategic advantage In short, sitting premiers or past ous policy positions and more directly to because the new leader would immedi- premiers face huge obstacles on the party leaders like Stanley Baldwin and ately become prime minister. Public national scene. One obvious reason is Neville Chamberlain — was chosen as displays of openness and democratic that the role of premier forces the leader by the triumvirate of rule were political slogans for what was incumbent to take a “me-too” advoca- Chamberlain, Lord Halifax and a closed leadership model of the cy role for their province, often using Churchill. This was because Halifax was national governing party. Ottawa or neighbouring provinces as a in the House of Lords, not the Jean Chrétien, also serving as punching bag to gain more provincial Commons, an unlikely situation for a Opposition Leader, won his first majority advantages. Quebec has long played wartime prime minister. More recently, in 1993. Indeed, in the Liberal Party, sit- this advocacy role, not only in consti- Margaret Thatcher’s downfall as prime ting cabinet ministers as leaders-in-wait- tutional fights with Ottawa, but on ing account for the long Canadian issues of reducing interprovincial trade TABLE 1. GOVERNORS WHO BECAME experience where leaders don’t come barriers, energy policy against PRESIDENT from premiers’ offices. Only Lester Newfoundland and Labrador, even on • Virginia Jefferson, Monroe, Tyler Pearson became prime minister after US-Canada in the 1988 elec- • New York Van Buren, Cleveland, serving as Opposition leader, and it took tion, when Ontario’s premier, David Theodore Roosevelt, two defeats, in 1958 and 1962, to gain Peterson, and PEI’s Robert Ghiz tried to Franklin Roosevelt the prime minister’s top job in the East play the traditional nationalist card in • Tennessee Polk, Andrew Johnson Block, where the PM’s office was then favour of anti-free trader . • Ohio Hayes, McKinley located. • Wilson Clearly, the other parties had tried a second, more subtle reason is the • California Reagan different model to break the electoral format of leadership selection. In • Arkansas Clinton A th • Texas George W. Bush stranglehold of the mighty Liberal the 19 century, the two main parties, • Territorial fortress in the two largest provinces, MacDonald’s Conservatives and the governors Jackson (Florida), Harrison Ontario and Quebec, with enough swing Liberals choosing Laurier, followed the (Indiana), Taft (the ridings elsewhere to gain a comfortable British tradition of choosing their leaders Philippines) majority. This pattern of Liberal rule in from members of the caucus. This old-

POLICY OPTIONS 85 JUNE-JULY 2012 Charles McMillan

boy system often favoured not the elect- scape smacked of Liberal Red from sea of 1967.” In that race, the leadership ed members of the caucus, but peers from to sea. battle between ’s sitting pre- the House of Lords, a practice followed As a result, there were only two mier, Duff Roblin, and pre- by the British Conservative Party until opportunities for a sitting premier to mier Robert was a case study Douglas Hume faced defeat by Labour’s lead a federal political party, with a in why premiers face huge obstacles, Harold Wilson in 1964. Today, it is incon- remote chance of becoming prime min- not only to win the leadership race but ceivable that a member of the House of ister. On both occasions, in 1967 and in to win a national election. By most Lords would lead a political party in 1983, that opportunity was the leader- standards, Duff Roblin was the Britain, the very reason why Lord Halifax ship race of the Progressive favourite, well known on the national didn’t become prime minister in May Conservative Party. Both races had a stage, fluently bilingual and very popu- 1940, when Neville Chamberlain lost former prime minister wanting to lar in Quebec, and an assumed real authority in the House of Commons, reclaim his party’s mantle. Both lost. In favourite successor in western Canada and Winston Churchill assumed the vital both cases, there was a party outsider, to the irascible . role as prime minister. Ironically, it was both wanting to become leader and , scion of the wealthy only late in the war that he became prime minister — , party Stanfield family in Truro, Nova Scotia, leader of the Conservative Party itself and president, in 1967, and , was unilingual, knew little about faced defeat in the election of 1945. in 1983, a failed candidate in the lead- national issues, but was immensely The first modern convention in ership race in 1976 and never elected to popular in his native province. Indeed, Canada when party members, not cau- the House of Commons. he entered the race after winning cus supporters, chose the leader was the These two races form an important another huge majority in Nova Scotia. 1956 Conservative Party leadership lesson for political aficionados of all par- Dalton Camp, who ran his provincial convention. Thanks to new forms of ties but they also explain much about the campaigns and his leadership race, media, particularly television, this evolution of Canada’s political system. once said that Stanfield was a son of a Ottawa convention served as more than The leadership races in 1967 and 1983 bitch to get elected, but once in power, a leadership race: it became a recruit- forever closed the backroom choices of he would be there forever. ment vehicle for the party, an astonish- party elites, lessened the role of insider Both premiers became leadership ing new pulpit for the new prairie caucus favourites and allowed the party candidates but from very different populist and a rallying cry for a nation- to elect members from every riding in positions. Stanfield was the most al party stranded in the political wilder- Canada, thus greatly diminishing the reluctant, personally favouring ness, not only out of power in Ottawa role of former elected officials, members Roblin because he was bilingual and since Bennett’s demise in 1935, but of Parliament and senators. Indeed, start- he could unite the fractious with few Conservative gov- ernments in the provinces This US model is in sharp contrast with the parliamentary — none in Atlantic Canada, system, with the modern version of party discipline, highly zero support in Quebec and organized political parties and the special role of the elected little backing in western caucus as the front line system of checks and balances. Canada. Only Ontario stood as a bulwark for the Conservative Party, ing with the 1956 leadership convention, Diefenbaker element in the party. which had an implicit bargain: change and continuing to this day for all parties, Roblin wanted to run, despite gov- leaders, not parties, a formula not the role of elected youth as delegates and ernment problems at home, and he unlike what has just happened in university campus clubs became a power- was not clear about who would enter . In 1956, not too surprisingly, ful force in the party, reflecting a new the race, making him appear to some there were no Conservative premiers demographic that US candidates like the supporters as too indecisive. His who offered themselves as a candidate Kennedys first cultivated (and candidate problems became worse because of a for the national party, because there Barack Obama perfected, using the tool little-known meeting in June 1967 in were only two Conservative premiers, of social media), and became a source of with Dalton Camp. At this one in Ontario, who preferred incum- ideas, recruitment, party staff and policy secret meeting, Camp offered his bency, and one who just got elected, networking. help with Roblin’s leadership cam- in New paign and the national election to Brunswick. More to the point, the two arious accounts have been written follow, but he was given a deadline previous national leaders, V of both leadership races, especial- of July 10. Roblin, worried about and George Drew, had been premiers of ly a brilliant, inside view in a McGill adverse publicity, kept this session Manitoba and Ontario and lost federal University master’s thesis by Michael secret except for close confidants, elections in 1945, 1948 and 1953. At Vineberg, “The Progressive but waited past the deadline. Roblin that time, the Canadian political land- Conservative Leadership Convention also ignored his supporters’ desire for

86 OPTIONS POLITIQUES JUIN-JUILLET 2012 From the premier’s office to the PMO — Where are the candidates? a large roll-out agenda. Camp Stanfield led Roblin on all five by a western Canada saw the Alberta pre- returned to Nova Scotia, offered the comfortable margin. Stanfield lost mier picking up a huge delegate count same support to Stanfield, but three elections, in 1968, 1972 and outside western Canada. But these implied strongly that Duff Roblin 1974, to a new force in Canadian premiers also knew personally that would not be a candidate. politics, Pierre Elliott Trudeau. behind the scenes, another candidate Thus persuaded, Stanfield had devised his own winning formula announced his candidacy a week tanfield was replaced in 1976 by for the leadership convention. Unlike later, on July 19. Roblin, caught by S , who beat Trudeau in in 1967, and with the lesson he surprise, tested his own support in 1979, only to lose power on a budget learned from 1976, Brian Mulroney southern Ontario and Montreal, but vote, and Trudeau, Lazarus-like, knew that becoming the second- decided to wait. For his part, he did returned to power in February 1980. choice preference was the key to win- not want to be seen as the candidate The Conservatives returned to their ning a multicandidate convention. of choice for Dalton Camp and his fractious party ways, and at the Lougheed became a quiet supporter, followers, a widespread group assem- national convention in Winnipeg, and Mulroney was careful never to bled for his leadership for presidency January 1983, even though he won a attack William Davis, the Ontario of the PC Party against Arthur support of confidence vote by 66.9 Conservative Party or their support- Maloney in a contentious fight the percent, Joe Clark stunned the party ers, meanwhile slogging it out with previous November. True, while by calling for a leadership race in June Joe Clark for delegates in Quebec and Roblin thought that being seen as too 1983 (in part because he knew how across the country. Mulroney close to Camp would alienate weak his real caucus support had emerged victorious, winning the lead- Diefenbaker loyalists, he was also per- become). That spring, two premiers, ership race on the fourth ballot suaded that being a “reluctant” candi- of Alberta and William against Joe Clark. Despite taking over date would win a huge following in Davis of Ontario, were huge media a fractious caucus and a party divided, the party at large, on the assumption favourites, supported on paper by 15 months later he won the largest that a lead on the first ballot would regional groups, by certain caucus sup- electoral victory in Canadian history. lead to a winner on the last ballot. porters, by Bay Street and the regional The lessons from the leadership Roblin and his followers also media, as well as by various sections of races show that a sitting premier, didn’t realize, until too late, that the the party. But both decided in the end, even from a very large province or leadership campaign wasn’t about despite soundings of their staff and one with strong regional support, is the national media or about how caucus supporters, not to become lead- unlikely ever to win a national leader- many party brass or caucus members ership candidates. For both, it was a ship race, let alone win a national were on side. It was a delegate race, game of chicken: one would run only election. Federal issues are national in riding by riding. Despite Stanfield’s if the other ran. scope, but increasingly they are inter- terrible media interviews, or even Several members of Clark’s cabi- national and global. It takes hard smaller campaign appearances, he net decided to enter the race, hoping work, travel and prodigious industry travelled the country meeting dele- to bring unity to a deeply divided cau- to learn the substance and nuances of gates one on one. His campaign was cus and party. As noted, Dalton Camp federal issues, and that leaves little run from , close to the con- and his celebrated Big Blue Machine time to cultivate a national following vention site at Maple Leaf Gardens, again had their favourite candidate in from the incessant demands of the and there was a separate campaign place, Ontario Premier William Davis. premier’s office. No majority election organization for convention week. The only problem was that this candi- wins can come from a regional base Camp and his followers, shrewd date, Premier Davis, was not sure of only, so outsiders to Parliament (Brian operatives like Eddie Goodman, his own standing across the country, Mulroney was an exception, cultivat- Finlay MacDonald, Norm Atkins, and he knew first-hand its fatal weak- ing a national Rolodex from birth and Jean Wadds, and a nesses among French at active in politics since his university team of young university recruits, large and in Quebec in particular, and student days at St. Francis Xavier) or but including caucus supporters, cul- his public criticisms of ’s successful premiers face massive elec- tivated their national tentacles, 18-cent gasoline would not go down toral barriers. And it remains today an including with other leadership cam- well in western Canada or with John open question whether being a suc- paigns, especially that of Davie Crosbie and his followers. cessful governor leads to the keys of Fulton. By the time the convention In Alberta, Premier Peter the White House. opened to the national media spot- Lougheed’s winning formula for elec- light, the Stanfield campaign was tions made him a natural media dar- Charles McMillan, professor of interna- operating on all cylinders. The con- ling, and despite Joe Clark’s Alberta tional business and public policy, is the vention went five ballots, but roots, many political operatives in author of Eminent Islanders.

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