FROM THE PREMIER’S OFFICE TO THE PMO — WHERE ARE THE CANDIDATES? Charles McMillan Canadian political history stands in contrast to that of the the US, where 18 governors have become president and 16 presidents, including the incumbent, were US senators. In Canada, only one premier, Sir Charles Tupper, became prime minister. Sitting premiers or past premiers today face huge obstacles on the national scene. A sitting premier, even one who is from a very large province or who has strong regional support, is unlikely ever to win a leadership race, let alone win a federal election. L’histoire politique du Canada diffère nettement de celle des États-Unis, où 18 gouverneurs ont accédé à la Maison-Blanche et 16 présidents, y compris Barack Obama, ont été sénateurs. Ici, un seul premier ministre provincial, sir Charles Tupper, a pu prendre la direction du pays, ce qui témoigne des obstacles presque insurmontables qui freinent l’ascension des premiers ministres provinciaux anciens ou actuels sur la scène nationale. Un premier ministre en poste, même s’il est à la tête d’une grande province et jouit de solides appuis régionaux, n’a guère de chances de remporter une course à la direction et moins encore une élection fédérale. t might sound like a trick question for Trivial Pursuit, and US states have budgets much smaller than the economies it is this: How many premiers in Canada have become and budgets of the biggest Canadian provinces, although I prime minister? The short answer may seem surprising: several presidents, including Ronald Reagan and George W. only one, Sir Charles Tupper, and he served only a short time Bush, were governors of very large states, California and period in this august office, and his role as premier of Nova Texas. Governors gain executive experience and they learn to Scotia had little to do with his assuming the leadership of the work with both sides of the political aisle. More recently, US Conservative Party. From before Confederation in 1867, governors on the rise have taken on national roles, including Tupper was a close friend and confident of Sir John A. as spokesmen for all US governors on such issues as educa- Macdonald, and he had served as minister in numerous port- tion, infrastructure and health, gaining widespread media folios in the federal government. Tupper also had been High exposure, financial campaign support and clever media use Commissioner to the UK after a dispute with John A. (curi- of the incumbent’s weaknesses — Ronald Reagan’s attacks on ously, he also was minister of finance in 1887-88) without Jimmy Carter, or Bill Clinton’s laser beam attacks on eco- surrendering his post in London). Tupper was seen as a natu- nomic policies and the foreign policy forays of the two ral successor to John A., and after Macdonald’s death in 1891, George Bushes. a succession of leaders floundered, and the party and cabinet pressed Tupper to return. He became prime minister in May here are factors why governors have an inside edge on the 1896, only to face election defeat to Wilfrid Laurier’s rising T way to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The US election system Liberal Party. He stayed in Ottawa for four years as Opposition is actually 50 state elections, because the tortuous Electoral leader, then returned to London, where he died in 1915. College determines who becomes president, and many states The fact that premiers haven’t climbed to what Disraeli are safe elections either for the Democrats (e.g., New York and called the “top of the greasy pole” may seem a true oddity of California) or for the Republicans (e.g., Texas and Utah). Indeed, the Canadian political landscape in a federal system, where recent national elections for president show that the actual many provinces are proportionally bigger than US states. swing states are quite few, especially Ohio, so despite wide- Indeed, Canadian political history stands in stark contrast to spread national campaigning, presidential campaigns are really the US system, where 18 governors have become president, tied to the swing states and the US primary system to seek a and 16 presidents, including the present incumbent, were US party leader is dedicated to finding a candidate who can win the senators (see table 1). Why the difference? In general, most swing states. In theory, at least, governors are a natural fit. 84 OPTIONS POLITIQUES JUIN-JUILLET 2012 From the premier’s office to the PMO — Where are the candidates? This US model is in sharp contrast minister, however much disguised as Ottawa cultivated a truism of political sci- with the parliamentary system, with the caucus and cabinet solidarity, came from ence in Canada that the real checks and modern version of party discipline, her loss of real authority in her cabinet, balances come from provinces that elect- highly organized political parties and and John Major assumed the role as ed a government of a different party the special role of the elected caucus as party leader and prime minister. All done stripe than the government in Ottawa. As the front line system of checks and bal- in a leadership putsch in 24 hours! they used to say in Quebec: “Bleu à ances. Indeed, most Commonwealth Québec, rouge à Ottawa.” They said the prime ministerial leadership races date ntil the late 20th century, at a same thing in Ontario during the 42-year from the model used in Britain. U superficial level, Canadian party Conservative reign from 1943 to 1985, Historically, the key deciding actors are leadership models emulated the British which pretty much coincided with a the monarchy, the elected caucus and system, with some differences. Clearly, Liberal hegemony in Ottawa. the party at large. One might argue that the Crown played almost no role, Like many truisms, it has an air of Britain has changed the least among direct or indirect, even when the gov- truth, but there are as many examples with the opposite position: Canadian political history stands in stark contrast to the US system, elect a government that where 18 governors have become president, and 16 presidents, works closely with our including the present incumbent, were US senators. cousins in Ottawa. In recent years, for instance, there Commonwealth countries, and Canada ernor general was a British citizen. were seven provinces with a Progressive is the most advanced, even (Some did influence policy direction.) Conservative Party banner during Brian Americanized, in how to choose a party The Liberals were the dominant party, Mulroney’s huge 1984 majority. Jean leader. ruling in Ottawa for most of the 20th Chrétien’s Liberal government in Even in the 20th century, British century with a carefully calibrated Ottawa had Liberal governments in party leaders came not from the party at rotation of francophone and anglo- Ontario, Quebec, BC, New Brunswick large, but from their support in the cau- phone leaders. Starting in 1919, the and PEI. Even today, with a majority cus, elected members of the House of Liberal Party actually changed leaders Conservative government in Ottawa, Commons and caucus leaders in the only six times (1919, 1948, 1958, four provinces have governments of the House of Lords. Winston Churchill — 1968, 1984 and 1990), and cabinet same political stripe. owing to his trenchant criticism of vari- insiders had a huge strategic advantage In short, sitting premiers or past ous policy positions and more directly to because the new leader would immedi- premiers face huge obstacles on the party leaders like Stanley Baldwin and ately become prime minister. Public national scene. One obvious reason is Neville Chamberlain — was chosen as displays of openness and democratic that the role of premier forces the leader by the triumvirate of rule were political slogans for what was incumbent to take a “me-too” advoca- Chamberlain, Lord Halifax and a closed leadership model of the cy role for their province, often using Churchill. This was because Halifax was national governing party. Ottawa or neighbouring provinces as a in the House of Lords, not the Jean Chrétien, also serving as punching bag to gain more provincial Commons, an unlikely situation for a Opposition Leader, won his first majority advantages. Quebec has long played wartime prime minister. More recently, in 1993. Indeed, in the Liberal Party, sit- this advocacy role, not only in consti- Margaret Thatcher’s downfall as prime ting cabinet ministers as leaders-in-wait- tutional fights with Ottawa, but on ing account for the long Canadian issues of reducing interprovincial trade TABLE 1. GOVERNORS WHO BECAME experience where leaders don’t come barriers, energy policy against PRESIDENT from premiers’ offices. Only Lester Newfoundland and Labrador, even on • Virginia Jefferson, Monroe, Tyler Pearson became prime minister after US-Canada free trade in the 1988 elec- • New York Van Buren, Cleveland, serving as Opposition leader, and it took tion, when Ontario’s premier, David Theodore Roosevelt, two defeats, in 1958 and 1962, to gain Peterson, and PEI’s Robert Ghiz tried to Franklin Roosevelt the prime minister’s top job in the East play the traditional nationalist card in • Tennessee Polk, Andrew Johnson Block, where the PM’s office was then favour of anti-free trader John Turner. • Ohio Hayes, McKinley located. • New Jersey Wilson Clearly, the other parties had tried a second, more subtle reason is the • California Reagan different model to break the electoral format of leadership selection. In • Arkansas Clinton A th • Texas George W. Bush stranglehold of the mighty Liberal the 19 century, the two main parties, • Territorial fortress in the two largest provinces, MacDonald’s Conservatives and the governors Jackson (Florida), Harrison Ontario and Quebec, with enough swing Liberals choosing Laurier, followed the (Indiana), Taft (the ridings elsewhere to gain a comfortable British tradition of choosing their leaders Philippines) majority.