Left, the Dassault Rafale, a French- built fighter. Below, the at an air show.

World air forces are on pace to buy more than 3,000 fighters over the next decade.

By Marina Malenic Dassault photo

he world’s military air arms, intent on preserving and strength- ening their fighter forces, have touched off what could prove to Tbe a decade-long global aircraft sales Fighters Far upsurge. Wealthy and developing nations alike are turning their attention to fighter re- capitalization. Their efforts might well send thousands of new and advanced and Wide units into global fighter forces. At stake: scores of billions of dollars in sales. Experts maintain that the newest US fighter, ’s F-35, is poised to dominate sales in the latter years of this “growth decade” of roughly 2010-19. However, the initial years will see fierce competition among many manufacturers. Fueling the demand are pressures created by deferrals of modernization and the desire for emerging technolo- gies. It is a combination felt by many nations—from Britain to , from Japan to Israel, not to mention the United States. What will this boom look like? Opinions vary, but reputable industry watchers Forecast International and the Teal Group consultancy of Fair- fax, Va., reported that sales may rise as much as 35 percent, and be worth a whopping $164 billion, during the period 2008-17. In their analyses, FI and the Teal Group projected sales of between 2,909 and 3,345 fighters. The average per-fighter cost works out to about $52 million. Eurofighter photo AIR FORCE Magazine / January 2010 59 FI, a consulting firm specializing in fighter contract competitions since Mc- manufacturer for what could ultimately market research for the aerospace and Donnell Douglas (acquired by Boeing become a 120-aircraft buy, although the defense industries, contended in 2008: in the 1990s) marketed its F-4 Phantom Brazilian government has indicated that “Although the production of fighters fighter around the world, beginning in it favors the Rafale. will hover around the 300-aircraft-per- the 1960s. Robert E. Gower Jr., Boeing’s VP for year line through 2013, FI projects that F/A-18 programs, said Brazilian officials production levels will jump by more than The First Step have “been insistent” that “they do not a third from 2014 to 2017, as fighter “We feel we’re really able to hit the want to buy an aircraft, they want to manufacturers are forecast to produce sweet spot in terms of price and capabil- buy technology.” Last summer, Obama more than 400 new fighters in each of the ity with both of these aircraft,” he said. Administration officials traveling in final two years of the forecast period.” Neither Boeing nor Lockheed Martin Brazil outlined a proposal for unprec- Customers for US fighters—there is a sure thing in these international edented transfers of F/A-18 technology, are many—are generally acquiring the duels, however. in order to give Boeing a better shot at latest versions of legacy designs such as Outside the traditional US customers, the multibillion-dollar contract. the USAF F-15 and Navy F/A-18 (built the competition is fierce. Dassault, Saab, “The transfer ... would be something by Boeing) and USAF’s F-16 (built by Sukhoi, Eurofighter, and Mikoyan- that we had never done before, and spe- Lockheed Martin). Gurevich all have advanced aircraft cifically because [the relationship] with Boeing has a stake in several interna- on offer to clients who are not eligible Brazil is so prized, so significant for us,” tional competitions. Thomas A. Bell, for the F-35 or who are unwilling to said Ellen O. Tauscher, undersecretary of the firm’s vice president of business de- wait for it. state for arms control and international velopment for , sees two The top international fighters include security, during the trip. primary demand drivers for new fighters ’s Dassault Rafale, Russia’s MiG- Top Pentagon weapons buyer Ashton worldwide: the need to recapitalize old 35 and Sukhoi Su-35, Sweden’s Saab B. Carter, also on the trip, said “this is fleets “simply from the standpoint of Gripen and the EADS-BAE Eurofighter just the first step” in a technology rela- Photo via Piotr Butowski

aircraft life span and fatigue issues” Typhoon, produced by a consortium of tionship with Brazil that “gets deeper and a desire for the latest technology. British, German, Italian, and Spanish and deeper with ... time.” “No matter how much capability you companies. Boeing’s Gower said industrial off- put into the aircraft that were bought in Late last year, France and Kuwait sets are a significant part of the Boeing the ’70s or ’80s, at a certain point they’re signed a defense pact that appears likely package. For example, all of the final just not capable of engaging in the kind to lead to a sale of 60 Rafale fighters assembly work will be done in Brazil, of conflicts that NATO and other allied to that Gulf nation. Dassault has been if Brazilian officials choose to go with nations are getting into,” Bell said. making overtures to at least two other the Super Hornet. Bell said lessons from modern warfare regional players, Saudi Arabia and the India has made clear that technology are prompting a greater interest from United Arab Emirates. transfers would be part of any deal to “almost every corner of the Earth” in In South America, Boeing’s Super replace its aging fighter fleet. Boeing’s two fighter offerings—the F/A- Hornet, the Rafale, and the Gripen are 18E/F Super Hornet and the F-15 Eagle. finalists in a competition to replace Above, the Su-35 is the newest and Indeed, Bell noted, Boeing has not Brazil’s fleet. Brazil most advanced version in Russia’s Su- been involved in so many international in mid-December had not yet chosen a 27 family of fighters. 60 AIR FORCE Magazine / January 2010 ,

international Super Hornet sale to date. The purchase was a hedge against pos- Saab photo sible delays in the F-35 program, which it remains committed to. “The Australians know that the worst time to buy a fighter is during the initial stages,” Gower said in a veiled reference to the F-35, before implicitly acknowledging that Boeing will have trouble competing with the Lightning II in later years. “The capability will improve, and the price will almost inevitably go down over time,” he said. Indeed, it seems only a matter of time until the F-35 becomes the big dog on the world fighter market. With the United States Air Force, Marine Corps, and Navy all in line to buy the Lockheed fighter, US purchases alone would make the Lightning II among the largest fighter acquisitions in history, in terms of cost. How many F-35s will go to US ser- The Swedish-made Saab Gripen, shown here, is already in service not only in Swe- den but Hungary, the Czech Republic, and South Africa. vices over the next 10 years? Figures are still in flux. However, a rough, back-of-the-envelope estimate holds New Delhi last year began long-flight Japan is contemplating replacement that the US will buy 700—some 400 evaluations for the purchase of 126 mul- of its 80 F-4 Phantoms. Industry watch- for the Air Force and 300 for the sea tirole fighters, with a firm option for at ers say a competition could be opened services. least 50 percent more. A contract could sometime this year. “We believe the There is likely to be a huge export ultimately be worth up to $20 billion, No. 1 requirement [for Japan] will be market for the F-35, which is the first according to Boeing’s Gower. air superiority,” said Bass. “No. 2 will US stealth fighter built for export. “This is by far the largest campaign probably be defense.” Australia, Britain, Canada, Denmark, going on around the world right now— Australia, meanwhile, has ordered 24 Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, and potentially one of the largest interna- two-seat Super Hornets, with deliveries Turkey are all participating in the de- tional buys of all time,” he said. “And to be completed by 2012—the only velopment effort, and these international with six competitors, it is going to be a real shoot-out.” India plans to replace hundreds of MiG-21s with 126 aircraft that would fit somewhere in between its high-end

Russian Su-30MKIs and its low-end Lockheed Martin photo indigenous Tejas Light Combat Aircraft fighters. The Rafale, Gripen, Eurofighter Ty- phoon, F-16, Super Hornet, and MiG-35 are competing for the contract. India’s changing requirements have created repeated delays, and a decision is not expected until later this year. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea and Japan, both preparing for their competi- tions, already fly variants of the F-15. Mark Bass, Boeing’s F-15 program vice president, said in the future these nations will likely require some amount of radar cross section reduction, and that’s why Boeing developed the Silent Eagle. The F-15SE, under development with company funds, would be capable of internal weapons carriage and would have some radar absorbent coatings, The F-35 Lightning II prototype, with its weapons bay doors open. The F-35 will Bass explained. soon be the only true fifth generation fighter in production. AIR FORCE Magazine / January 2010 61 Early in the F-35 program, accord- ing to Schreiber, various international companies significantly overbid with

Boeing illustration high prices for F-35 component con- tracts because “they heard what we said about real competition, but they didn’t believe us.” With the next round of requests for pro- posals, “they sharpened up their pencils and started becoming more competitive,” Schreiber explained. His assessment is that the program of- fice did indeed manage to build a better mousetrap. He said each F-35 aircraft will be less expensive than it would have been had the program incorporated guaranteed offsets. The F-35 program certainly still faces obstacles. The program is on the verge of “significant” cost increases, according to an independent assessment ordered by An artist’s conception of Boeing’s F-15SE Silent Eagle, now in development. The the Pentagon. The joint estimate team’s fighter’s radar cross section will be smaller than that of earlier F-15s. latest financial projection for the program is “pessimistic” and “clearly raises partners are expected to purchase ap- F-35 customers, and they “could come concerns about the course the program proximately 750 aircraft. on board pretty quickly.” Both nations is on,” Defense Department spokesman Singapore, while not a consortium are expected to open fighter contract Geoffrey S. Morrell said late last year. member, maintains an interest in competitions this year. “This is the biggest, most expensive, acquiring up to 100 F-35s, said Jon For some in the Pentagon, the F-35 and arguably most complicated program Schrei­ber, the Pentagon official in is as much an alliance-building tool this department has ever pursued,” he charge of the program’s international as it is an airplane. Lockheed Martin said. “We have a great deal riding on efforts. Israel, which has not been executives emphasized that vision. the success of this program.” involved in development, announced “The F-35 is a state-of-the-art plat- Still, the setbacks, while significant, plans last year to purchase 25 airplanes form, but more importantly, it is a don’t spell inevitable doom for the in early production and perhaps 50 means to shared security,” George program, said Richard L. Aboulafia, a more if a deal can be worked out to Standridge, Lockheed’s vice president fighter-market expert at the Teal Group. insert indigenous electronic warfare for business development, said in an “The fact that the international partners technology into those aircraft. interview late last year. have kept the faith is a sign of program “The Israelis have some unique re- health.” quirements, ... and we have basically Not a Typical Offset Program The next five to seven years, according been able to accommodate those,” The spreading of the F-35’s indus- to most experts, are Europe’s and Boe- Schreiber said in November. Should trial largesse helps, too. Schreiber, ing’s window of opportunity to export Israel accept the Pentagon’s pricing who has been the F-35 international fighters or to create new alliances to offer sometime early this year, it would director since 1996, hails his program’s forestall F-35 market dominance. But be in line to receive some of the first competitive industrial participation in the end, many say that this is all but F-35 production models. effort as an effective way of providing inevitable, and the fighter market will Schreiber said discussions with offsets. He headed the US negotiating neck down to the F-35 and perhaps a Japan have also moved forward “now team that helped craft an agreement few Sukhoi products. that the F-22 is definitely not going whereby international companies bid US allies are still intensely interested to be exported anywhere outside the for work on the program. in flying US fighters, with two caveats, United States.” Tokyo had long ex- “Our basic principle going into those according to Standridge: “They need to pressed interest in purchasing the F-22 negotiations was that this is not a typi- be multirole, and they need to be afford- Raptor, Lockheed Martin’s faster and cal offset program,” Schreiber said. He able.” He predicted that the F-35 “will higher-performing fighter. Defense wanted to avoid the “false economies” become the new F-16,” in the world Secretary Robert M. Gates early last he believes are inherent to traditional fighter marketplace. year decided to cancel additional guaranteed offset programs. Aboulafia agrees. Unless a new gen- F-22 production, instead putting all “They’re good for a short period of eration competitor to the F-35 emerges, the department’s money on the F-35. time, but it doesn’t sustain the coun- the world fighter market will eventually “They’re looking more seriously tries’ industries over the long term, fall to Lockheed and Sukhoi, he said, now at the only real fifth generation ... and it adds cost to the program,” adding that everyone else is “merely on fighter available, which is the F-35,” he said. borrowed time.” n Schreiber said of the Japanese. He added that Japan and South Korea Marina Malenic is the Pentagon correspondent for Defense Daily, a Washington, are the next countries likely to become D.C.-based defense newsletter. This is her first article for Air Force Magazine. 62 AIR FORCE Magazine / January 2010