jdw.janes.com s JDW s 31 March 2010 s 23 ANALYSIS

had teamed with Embraer and promoted the Mirage 2000BR. The programme was cancelled Brazil’s fighter choice by the Lula administration in February 2005 and the funds were reportedly allocated to social development projects. The FAB was instructed to find an interim will not be an easy one solution to replace its ageing Mirages. Upgraded second hand options were offered by Israel, South Africa, Russia and the Netherlands, but ’s Brazil’s president has said that political, economic offer of a dozen Mirage 2000s armed with new generation air-to-air munitions for EUR100 mil- and social factors will be a major consideration in lion (USD135 million) was the winner. If we include the transfer of the Foch aircraft the selection of the FX-2 next-generation fighter carrier to the Brazilian Navy in 2000, it is clear from this point on that France was looking to aircraft. Iñigo Guevara reports strengthen its defence relationship with Brazil in anticipation of future contracts. A French defence official told this author in 2007: “We wouldn’t he selection of a new generation fighter was taken up in 1974 and it formed the have sold our [aircraft] carrier to just anyone.” fighter to satisfy a backbone of Brazil’s fighter assets, complement- The Brazilian MoD published its new (FAB) requirement has become one ing the Mirages. National Defence Strategy in December 2008, of the most delayed and controversial From this point on, the FAB’s combat assets which was followed by the most ambitious programmes of the decade. were distributed into three tiers of fighters: the long-term defence procurement plan in Latin TMinister of Defence Nelson Jobim said on air defence F-103 Mirage, the tactical F-5 Tiger America. France has so far been awarded three 19 March that a political decision would be and the armed reconnaissance AT-26 Xavante: a programmes worth well over USD10 billion. announced on 5 April. The decision will be based licence copy of the Italian MB326 armed jet. Selection of the Super Hornet, Rafale or on political, economic and social factors, as well By the mid 1980s the Brazilian defence indus- Gripen NG will disrupt Brazil’s three-tier as the type’s defence capabilities, according to try had flourished and was supplying regimes structure, replacing it with a two-tier force President Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva. throughout the Middle East, North Africa and comprised of the FX and the turbo-prop ALX The decision between the Boeing F/A-18E/F Latin America. Co-operation with Italy con- (Super Tucano). Using a fighter the size of Super Hornet, Dassault Rafale or Saab Gripen tinued and led to the development of the AMX Rafale to replace the F-5 and AMX fleets rep- NG is not an easy one. Three governments are attack-fighter, which reached Brazilian squad- resents a complete overkill of defence needs. heavily pushing their country’s option and Lula rons in 1989, replacing some Xavantes, and Also, even with Brazil’s booming economy, it is under intense international pressure: US Secre- expanding the ‘tactical” tier. The Brazilian is doubtful that it will be able to fund procure- tary of State Hillary Clinton was in Brazil in early version differed slightly from its Italian coun- ment and maintenance for a fleet of 120 Rafales. March promoting the Super Hornet among other terpart as Brazil was not cleared to receive the The same applies to the Super Hornet, which issues; French President is back- M61 Vulcan cannon. Again, France stepped in is additionally hampered by US export con- ing Brazil’s ambitions to have a permanent seat and offered the DEFA 30 mm cannon. Plans to trols. Furthermore, a market for Brazilian-built at the UN Security Council as a bid to strengthen replace the entire Xavante fleet with 144 AMXs Rafales or Super Hornets in the region is simply the Franco-Brazilian strategic alliance; and the soon faded due to lack of funding and production non-existent. King of Sweden visited Brazil on March 22 to was limited to 56 examples. Replacement of the Press leaks appear to indicate that the FAB promote the Gripen NG. remainder of the Xavante fleet started in the late favours Gripen NG. Its lower cost, high technol- The FX-2 requirement was published in Octo- 1990s, with the selection of the Super Tucano for ogy, easier maintenance and export feasibility ber 2008 along with a shortlist of contenders a requirement known as ALX. make it the most appealing replacement for the including the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Rafale While the F-5 fleet was subjected to a major F-5 and AMX. However, selecting Gripen may F3 and Gripen NG. The initial phase comprises upgrade programme during the early 2000s, the not be sufficient for Brazil’s strategic ambitions the acquisition of 20 to 36 fighters to be followed air defence Mirages were running out of flight as Sweden’s political weight in the international by licence production of the selected type to time. In 2001 the FAB launched a programme arena cannot compare to that of the US or France. replace its entire jet fighter fleet. to select a replacement known as FX. FX had an Making a “political” decision may prove harder Rafale has been acknowledged as the lead- initial budget of USD700 million and sought to than it sounds. ing contender because of France’s political and acquire 12 multirole fourth-generation fighters. The best option for Brazil if it were to select defence proximity with Brazil. Lula and Jobim Candidates included the F-16C, JAS-39 Gripen, Rafale or Super Hornet would be to use technol- have expressed it as their personal favourites. Su-35 Super Flanker and Mirage 2000. Dassault ogy transfers to develop its own lightweight/ When Brazil first sought to acquire an air low-to-medium-cost fighter, which could be defence fighter in the late 1960s it initially used to replicate the market success so far expe- selected the McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantom Selection of the rienced by the Tucano/Super Tucano series. II. However, it had to revert to further study The phrase “full technology transfer” trans- when it became clear that the US would not clear lates into Brazilian independence in fighter it for export to the Junta-run South American Super Hornet, design, production and marketing. The outcome nation. France stepped in and offered the Mirage will depend on the country’s immediate defence III in 1970. Rafale or Gripen NG needs and long-term vision. From 1972 Dassault’s Mirage became the Iñigo Guevara is author of ‘Latin American country’s main air defence fighter, forming a Fighters’, a history of fighter jets in service with squadron-sized group out of the central Annapo- will disrupt Brazil’s Latin American countries since 1947. Guevara lis airbase, some 90 miles from the capital. A US is a fellow at Georgetown University’s Security offer for the less expensive Northrop F-5 tactical three-tier structure Studies Program and a JDW Correspondent