Transformation Und Monarchische Prärogative: Der Niedergang Des Amerikanischen Reformismus, 1962-1963

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Transformation Und Monarchische Prärogative: Der Niedergang Des Amerikanischen Reformismus, 1962-1963 V. Transformation und monarchische Prärogative: Der Niedergang des amerikanischen Reformismus, 1962-1963 V. 1. Das Scheitern des «Amini-Experiments» und die Re-Etablierung der Schah- Autokratie Noch im Oktober 1961 konnte man den Eindruck gewinnen, dass die amerikanische Entschlossenheit, das „Amini-Experiment“ in Iran zu einem erfolgreichen Ende zu führen, ungebrochen ist. Im Anschluss an die anglo-amerikanische Intervention zugunsten der Reformregierung schien tatsächlich ein neues, einigen Optimismus rechtfertigendes Verhältnis zwischen Ministerpräsident Amini und Mohammad Rezā entstanden zu sein.1 Chester Bowles stattete in seiner neuen Rolle als Sonderbeauftragter des Präsidenten für die Dritte Welt im Februar 1962 Teheran einen Besuch ab, der in erster Linie das fortgesetzte Interesse der Administration an Iran dokumentieren sollte. Bowles schätzte im Anschluss die Situation als „kontrollierbar“ ein.2 Tatsächlich war diese Stabilität nur von kurzer Dauer. Im März berichtete die Botschaft erneut von einer niedergeschlagenen Stimmungslage des Monarchen, der sich bitter über die Undankbarkeit und Vernachlässigung seitens der USA beschwerte. Angesichts des fehlenden Verständnisses für seine exponierte und gefährdete Position als Folge seiner pro-westlichen Haltung und der ausbleibenden Zusagen über größere Militärhilfe sei er womöglich gezwungen, als Oberkommandierender der Streitkräfte abzudanken.3 Bezeichnend für die sich wandelnde Stimmungslage in Washington war, dass diesen im Grunde altbekannten Drohungen nun erhöhte Aufmerksamkeit zuteil wurde. Auf Vorschlag des State Department wurde der Besuch des Schahs daher auf den April vorverlegt mit der Begründung, dass nur so eine Abdankung verhindert werden könne, die zwangsläufig in politischem Chaos resultieren würde.4 Wenigstens konnte Bob Komer vorerst vereiteln, dass das geplante MAP-Programm 1 Amini wehrte sich erfolgreich gegen die vom Schah geforderten Kabinettsänderungen, unterstützt vom SAWAK- Direktor Pākrawān. Holmes kommentierte: „Amini is in new relationship with Shah and there is hope that with latter’s backing [...] reform program in this country can move ahead.“; Tehran #A-123, 6.11.61, ‚Iran General 10/28/61-11/9/61‘; Tehran #369, #370, #378, #403, 10-22.11.61, ‚Iran General 11/10/61-12/10/61‘, NSF, Countries, Box 116, JFKL. 2 Bowles‘ Kurzbesuch ersetzte die zuvor geplante Visite Robert Kennedys. Vgl. Brubeck Memo, 30.1.62, CF 60- 63, 788.11/1-3062; vgl. Cairo #1208, 15.2.62, 788.5/2-1562; Tehran #630, 19.2.62, 788.5/2-1862, CF 60-63; Tehran #A-3, 13.2.62, ‚Iran General 1/19/62-2/28/62‘, NSF, Countries, Box 116; Komer Memo, 5.2.62, ‚Staff Memoranda, Robert Komer 2/62‘, NSF, M&M, Box 322; Cairo #A-274, 17.2.62, encl. to Komer Memo, 24.3.62, ‚Iran General 3/1/62-3/26/62‘, NSF, Countries, Box 116. 3 Ein deprimierter Mohammad Rezā hatte seine Abdankungsabsichten während eines Skiausflugs mit Yatsevitch und dem britischen Botschafter geäußert. Vgl. Tehran #693, 7.3.62, FRUS 61-63, XVII, S. 508-11; ebd., S. 508 n1; Hughes Memo, 6.3.62, ‚Iran, 1961-1962 [Folder 2 of 2]‘, NSF, RWK, Box 424, JFKL; Harrisons Bericht nach London in ähnlichem Tenor, allerdings mit dem Hinweis: „Of course there is a certain element of indirect blackmail of the Americans.“; Harrison to FO, No. 221, 5.3.62, PREM 11/3845, TNA:PRO. 4 Botschafter Holmes empfahl die Vorverlegung des Besuchs. Die Bemerkungen des Schahs über eine mögliche Abdankung wurden dieses Mal so ernst genommen, dass GTI sogar zur Abfassung eines Memorandums über die möglichen Folgen angewiesen wurde. Offenbar wurden Berichte über den Gemütszustand Mohammad Rezās sogar Kennedy vorgelegt. Vgl. Holmes Letter, 4.3.62, 788.11/3-462, CF 60-63; Miner Memo, 12.3.62, ‚I. The © Der/die Autor(en) 2021 293 R. Popp, Vor der Revolution, Globale Gesellschaft und internationale Beziehungen, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-33888-6_5 Kapitel V: Niedergang des Reformismus – AID, das State Department und das Pentagon hatten sich in der Zwischenzeit auf eine Größenordnung von $330 Millionen geeinigt – dem Schah bereits vor dem Besuch mitgeteilt wurde, was ohne Zweifel eine neue iranische Kampagne gerichtet auf Erhöhung der in Aussicht gestellten Hilfe ausgelöst hätte.5 Kaum waren die Vorbereitungen des Staatsbesuchs angelaufen, zeigte sich jedoch, wie sehr sich die Haltung der Kennedy-Administration inzwischen der Schah-zentrierten Politik der Vorgänger-Administration angenähert hatte. Selbst Komer gab als primäre Devise für den Besuch aus, die Sorgen des Monarchen zu zerstreuen: Last May the President approved a new policy aimed at supporting a reformist government in its effort to achieve a ‘controlled revolution’ rather than an uncontrolled one. This remains our basic aim, but an indispensable element is to keep the Shah committed to or at least tolerant of our efforts to this end. Once before he threatened to dump Amini, he might do so again. If he himself left the throne, it would be equally disastrous. Hence we regard his continued presence and support of the Amini (or like) government as indispensable to Iranian stability over the next several years. There is no feasible alternative which would serve US interests as well.6 Die amerikanische Iranpolitik hatte sich von der Idee einer konsequenten Unterstützung einer Reformregierung in Iran – notfalls gegen die Interessen des Schahs – mit dem Ziel, eine alternative politische Synthese alternativ zur höfischen Autokratie zu schaffen, verabschiedet. Im Frühjahr 1962 ging es dagegen nur noch darum, eine gemäßigte, vornehmlich ökonomische Reformanstrengung mit der nun kaum noch in Frage gestellten monarchischen Prärogative in Einklang zu bringen.7 Komer wollte den Schah überzeugen, dass „we vigorously support him“ sowie versuchen, durch verschiedene Präsentationen über die militärischen Kraftverhältnisse in globaler und regionaler Hinsicht und eine Bekräftigung der bestehenden Hilfszusagen der USA Shah & Court (and Govt) 1962‘, Box 4; Talbot Letter, 9.3.62, ‚I-C. Corresp[…] 1962‘, NEA, GTI: RIAD, 1958- 63, Box 5; ähnlich Harrison to FO, No. 220 und 221, beide 5.3.62, PREM 11/3845, TNA:PRO zur Vorverlegung des Staatsbesuchs vgl. Battle Memo, 8.3.62, FRUS 61-63, XVII, S. 516ff.; siehe ebd., S. 511 n3, 516 Anm. o.N. 5 Vgl. ebd., S. 518 n7; die Antwort auf NSC Action 2447 war Anfang März erfolgt und plädierte wie der Steering Group Report für eine Reduzierung der Sollstärke der iranischen Streitkräfte um 25% und ein auf fünf Jahre angelegtes MAP-Program in Höhe von maximal $330 Millionen – dies waren zwar $30 Millionen mehr als die Steering Group vorgesehen hatte, blieb aber dennoch weit unter Holmes‘ Forderungen, die in der Zwischenzeit sogar auf eine Größenordnung von $421 Millionen angewachsen waren. Vgl. Hamilton Memo, o.D. [8. bzw. 9.3.62], ebd., S. 512-6; State #624, 16.3.62, ebd., S. 532f., und ebd., S. 533 n1, n2; Holmes Letter, 5.2.62, ‚I-C. Corresp[…] 1962‘, Box 5; Miner Memo, 6.2.62, ‚Office Memoranda, 1962‘, NEA, GTI: RIAD, 1958-63, Box 4; die NEA-Entwürfe in ‚3-A/1 […] (MAP), Jan. 1- June‘, Box 6, ebd.; Komer hatte Kennedy empfohlen, vorerst keine endgültige Entscheidung über die Größe der zukünftigen Militärhilfe zu leisten, nicht zuletzt da mit zusätzlicher notwendiger Wirtschaftshilfe für den 3. Siebenjahresplan in Höhe von etwa $400-600 Millionen zu rechnen war. Vgl. Komer Memo, 9.3.62, ‚Iran Subjects, Shah Visit 1/31/62-3/20/62‘, NSF, Countries, Box 117, JFKL; Komer hatte bereits zuvor angemerkt, ein $300 Millionen-Programm entspreche ungefähr $50 Millionen per Jahr. Der jährliche Beitrag zwischen 1956 und 1961 betrug $62 Millionen, und somit beinhalte das neue Programm im Grunde nur eine geringfügige Kürzung der MAP-Hilfe. Vgl. Komer Memo, 19.1.62, ‚RWK Chron, Jan.-June 1962, Box 2‘, DSDUF, LBJL; vgl. Kitchen Memo, 2.2.62, ‚MAP, Steering Group Report [Folder 2 of 2]‘, NSF, RWK, Box 432, JFKL. 6 Komer Notes, 20.3.62, ‚Staff Memoranda, Robert Komer 3/62‘, NSF, M&M, Box 322, JFKL; Assistant Secretary Talbot vertrat in einem Treffen der NSC Standing Group eine ähnliche Meinung: „we very much need the Shah in the next few years.“; NSC Standing Group Meeting, 23.3.62, FRUS 61-63, XVII, S. 539f. 7 William Polk vom Policy Planning Council brachte diesen Ansatz auf den Punkt: „The most striking fact about Iranian development is that it depends upon a mere handful of people. [...] If we undermine the Shah’s confidence in them – he already distrusts them as potential enemies – we may do terrible damage to our program.“; Polk Memo, 29.3.62, ‚Iran‘, Lot 69 D 121, S/P Records: 1962, Box 216. 294 Kapitel V: Niedergang des Reformismus die diffusen externen Bedrohungsvorstellungen Mohammad Rezās zu revidieren. Der Schah sollte von der eigentlichen Hauptbedrohung durch indirekte Aggression überzeugt werden, deren Grundvoraussetzung, wirtschaftliche und soziale Instabilität, durch extensive Aufrüstung noch verstärkt werden würde.8 Während für Komer der Schahbesuch „largely an exercise in psychotherapy“ war, sah man gerade auf Seiten des State Department eine Gelegenheit, den reformistischen Interventionismus der Administration weiter zurückzudrängen. Die Diskussionen über die tatsächliche strategische Lage Irans hatten zu der Einsicht geführt, dass es im Grunde keine geeigneten Maßnahmen gab, um den amerikanischen Beistandsverpflichtungen eine größere Glaubwürdigkeit zu verleihen.9 Damit wurde nicht nur die Grundidee in Frage gestellt, derzufolge man durch Demonstration der eigenen militärischen Kapazitäten und der eigenen Entschlossenheit, Iran im Ernstfall zur Hilfe zu kommen, wiederum
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