J Contentree (036420 KQ ) Investments to Take Off in 2019
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J Contentree (036420 KQ ) Investments to take off in 2019 Media 3Q18 preview: Revising down estimates For 3Q18, we forecast J Contentree to post revenue of W149bn (+28.7% YoY; all growth figures hereafter are YoY) and operating profit of W19.7bn (+85.0%). By business Earnings Preview segment, we expect operating profit of W13.4bn for multiplex and W6.4bn for October 8, 2018 broadcasting. We see operating profit coming in below our previous estimate and the consensus (W23.5bn), affected by: 1) disappointing theater attendance during the Chuseok holidays; and 2) some deferred overseas drama licensing sales. Multiplex (Megabox): We look for revenue of W100.9bn (+19.4%) and operating profit of W13.4bn (+16.0%). The overall market grew 11.5% in the quarter, thanks to higher (Maintain) Buy ticket prices (+6.7%) and Chuseok-related theater attendance growth (+4.5 %). For Megabox, we estimate theater attendance at directly-operated sites expanded 16.6% Target Price (12M, W) on YoY market share gains (+1.1%p). The three films recently distributed by Megabox 8,400 should contribute W1.3bn to profits. While the movie On Your Wedding Day performed well in the box office, we believe the company saw small losses on Fengshui (released Share Price (10/05/18, W) 5,900 right before the Chuseok holiday) and Sunset in My Hometown (released in July). Broadcasting (JTBC Content Hub + parent): We look for revenue of W62bn (+66.7%) and Expected Return 42% operating profit of W6.4bn (+184.0%). We believe top line continued to grow, supported by the addition of Monday/Tuesday drama slots and higher production budgets. Overseas licensing sales likely included the sale of Life to Netflix (NFLX US/CP: OP (18F, Wbn) 47 US$363.65). We believe the recognition of some country-level sales (around W0.5bn) was deferred to 4Q18. We also think the older title Misty was sold to a Chinese firm for Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 51 W2.5bn. EPS Growth (18F, %) 214.4 Bullish broadcasting outlook for 2019: China sales, additional JTBC slots, and Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 14.1 higher drama prices P/E (18F, x) 35.2 The 2019 outlook for the broadcasting business is looking increasingly bullish . Market P/E (18F, x) 8.8 Proceeds from the recent share issue should give the company the ability to respond KOSDAQ 773.70 to JTBC’s increasing programming . The company should also be able to demand higher prices for its tentpole content. 1) J Contentree plans to spend more than half (W63.3bn) Market Cap (Wbn) 850 of its equity issue proceeds next year. The company will dedicate 76% (W48.3bn) of this to securing web novel/webtoon intellectual property (IP) for TV adaptation (which has Shares Outstanding (mn) 144 become a popular trend) and to investing in stakes in original IP creators and Free Float (%) 65.6 producers. Given the much shorter cycle of drama production/programming (six to Foreign Ownership (%) 2.1 eight months) compared to films, we could see earnings leverage from increased Beta (12M) 0.87 production budgets by the end of next year. 52-Week Low 3,566 2) Sales of older titles to China have resumed. Following the 3Q18 sale of Misty , we 52-Week High 8,054 believe the company is currently working on deals for a number of other older titles, including Something in the Rain (transmission rights and remake rights). While Chinese (%) 1M 6M 12M firms are still restricted from utilizing Korean content , we believe many are looking to Absolute -5.1 -16.7 65.5 secure major content in advance of the lifting of the restrictions. In particular, the top Chinese platforms appear ready to release demand as soon as such signals emerge. Relative 0.5 -6.5 39.6 3) We see a strong chance of new drama slots being added on the JTBC channel in 280 J Contentree KOSDAQ 1H19. This, in turn, means more opportunities for drama production. JTBC turned a 230 profit last year, as its increasing channel compe titiveness drove ad rates higher. Recent entertainment shows and dramas have also been hugely successful. For dramas (the 180 channel’s core content), the potential for slot additions remains. 130 Maintain Buy and TP of W8,400 80 We reaffirm our Buy rating and TP of W8,400 on J Contentree. The three key 9.17 1.18 5.18 9.18 components of the broadcasting business—demand, investment, and sales—are interconnected. Should any positive changes in these variables become visible, this would prompt us to raise our 2019 estimates. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Media ] FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F Revenue (Wbn) 369 306 335 420 506 613 Jeong -yeob Park +822 -3774 -1652 OP (Wbn) 36 33 29 33 47 68 [email protected] OP margin (%) 9.8 10.8 8.7 7.9 9.3 11.1 NP (Wbn) 0 11 19 6 21 28 EPS (W) -1 121 159 53 167 197 ROE (%) -0.1 15.0 26.3 5.3 12.6 14.6 P/E (x) - 44.2 23.1 97.5 35.2 30.0 P/B (x) 2.3 9.6 5.0 3.8 4.6 4.0 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates October 8, 2018 J Contentree Table 1. Consolidated quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, mn) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18F 4Q18F 2017 2018F 2019F Revenue 87 97 116 121 110 111 149 137 420 506 613 Megabox 68 57 84 81 70 65 101 80 291 316 327 Box office 39 33 45 46 40 39 56 46 163 181 187 Concession 12 10 13 14 12 12 17 14 49 54 56 Screen ads 9 7 10 10 9 9 12 10 36 40 41 Other 8 7 16 11 9 6 16 10 43 41 43 Broadcasting 20 54 37 50 48 64 62 69 162 243 343 JTBC Content Hub 17 41 28 41 30 50 44 47 127 171 234 J Contentree (IP) 4 13 9 9 17 14 18 22 35 72 109 Operating profit 5.2 8.9 10.7 8.6 4.0 8.2 19.7 14.9 33.3 46.8 68.0 OP margin (%) 6.0 9.2 9.2 7.1 3.7 7.4 13.2 10.9 7.9 9.2 11.1 Megabox 4.3 0.0 9.1 12.5 3.1 1.7 13.4 6.6 25.9 24.8 27.4 Broadcasting 1.0 9.0 2.2 -0.5 1.1 6.6 6.4 8.3 11.7 22.4 41.5 JTBC Content Hub 1.0 6.9 2.2 -0.2 0.9 4.8 4.0 4.4 9.9 14.1 22.2 J Contentree (IP) -0.1 2.2 0.0 -0.3 0.2 1.8 2.4 3.9 1.8 8.3 19.3 Pretax profit 5.1 8.8 8.1 2.4 7.9 9.3 18.6 13.8 24.4 49.7 63.9 Net profit 3.8 6.3 1.7 -0.9 6.6 6.6 14.2 10.5 10.9 37.8 48.5 Net margin (%) 4.4 6.5 1.5 -0.8 6.0 5.9 9.5 7.7 2.6 7.5 7.9 Net profit attributable to 3.5 3.2 -1.0 0.8 4.6 2.5 8.3 5.9 6.4 21.4 28.3 controlling interest s YoY Revenue -5.3 21.2 9.6 108.6 26.2 15.2 28.7 12.8 25.4 20.5 21.1 Megabox 6.5 11.5 7.9 31.9 3.1 13.1 19.4 -1.1 14.0 8.6 3.5 Broadcasting 6.2 178.8 101.7 91.0 134.6 18.3 66.7 38.5 94.4 50.2 41.2 JTBC Content Hub -13.3 113.1 52.7 55.6 82.0 21.4 56.0 15.1 52.6 34.9 36.7 J Contentree (IP) - - - - 368.2 8.1 100.1 141.7 - 106.1 52.0 Operating profit -56.8 404.7 -30.9 TTB -22.8 -7.6 85.0 72.6 15.2 40.3 45.4 Net profit -42.8 TTB -85.9 TTR 74.4 4.7 716.2 TTB -51.4 247.4 28.3 Key assumptions Domestic attendance 52.3 45.0 64.0 58.6 51.3 45.1 66.8 53.9 219.9 217.1 219.7 Growth (%) 5.7 -0.3 -11.6 17.2 -1.9 0.1 4.5 -8.0 1.3 -1.2 1.2 Megabox attendance 10.2 8.6 12.2 11.7 10.2 9.1 13.5 10.9 42.7 43.6 44.2 Megabox share (%) 19.6 19.2 19.0 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.1 19.4 20.1 20.1 Note: Based on consolidated K -FIRS Source : Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Figure 1. Investment schedule/breakdown (Wbn) 70 Domestic/overseas platform Original IP (writers, production studios, etc.) 5 60 Film content Drama content 50 16.3 10 40 10 10 30 9.5 20 32 10 10 19 0 3 2018F 2019F 2020F Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 October 8, 2018 J Contentree Figure 2.