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Showbox (086980 KQ) Tentpole Strategy Bearing Fruit; Overseas Business Taking Shape

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Showbox (086980 KQ) Tentpole Strategy Bearing Fruit; Overseas Business Taking Shape Showbox (086980 KQ) Tentpole strategy bearing fruit; Overseas business taking shape Media US co-production deal and strong Chuseok performance of The Throne US co-production deal: Showbox announced that it has signed a co-production Company Update partnership with the American production company Blumhouse Productions and financing firm Ivanhoe Pictures. Blumhouse is the studio behind the film Whiplash October 1, 2015 (which was distributed in Korea by Showbox this year) and is well known for making low- budget box-office hits. Under the deal, Showbox will team with Blumhouse to produce at least six Korean language films in the thriller and horror genre over the next five (Upgrade) Buy years, with the projects fully financed by Ivanhoe. Showbox will be in charge of the domestic distribution of the movies, which could be remade in English by Blumhouse. Target Price (12M, W) 11,000 Chuseok box-office performance: During this year’s Chuseok holiday, the clear box-office winner was Showbox. The Throne , which was released by the company , sold 2.19mn Share Price (09/30/15, W) 8,480 tickets during the four-day long holiday, bringing the cumulative tally to 4.79mn. We believe the company has broken even on the film, closing the third quarter on a high note. Expected Return 30% Upbeat on 3Q; Tentpole and overseas operations are long-term positives Upbeat on 3Q earnings: We estimate Showbox movies sold 18.2mn tickets in 3Q thanks OP (15F, Wbn) 11 to the box-office hits Assassination and The Throne . The quarterly figure is 47% higher Consensus OP (15F, Wbn) 6 than the previous record set in 3Q12 (12.39mn), when the hugely successful film The Thieves was released. We forecast the company to post record earnings in 3Q, with EPS Growth (15F, %) - revenue of roughly W67bn and operating profit of around W8bn. Market EPS Growth (15F, %) 23.5 Tentpole strategy: What’s noteworthy is that Assassination and The Throne are P/E (15F, x) 67.1 tentpole films the company marketed for a year prior to their release, and that both Market P/E (15F, x) 11.0 films did well during the highly competitive month of August and the Chuseok holiday KOSDAQ 678.48 season. In the movie industry, tentpoles are defined as hit titles that provide a source of steady cash flow. In our view, Showbox’s tentpole strategy is an effective way of making Market Cap (Wbn) 531 a seemingly unpredictable business more predictable. Shares Outstanding (mn) 63 Free Float (%) 42.5 Overseas strategy: We expect the company’s overseas ventures to begin yielding results in 1H16. The overseas business should reinforce the company’s mid/long-term growth Foreign Ownership (%) 3.3 prospects and act as a positive share catalyst. In addition to the Blumh ouse deal, Beta (12M) 1.06 Showbox has an agreement with China’s Huayi Brothers to co-produce a minimum of six 52-Week Low 3,320 Chinese language films over a three-year period. For Showbox, which does not have a 52-Week High 9,770 theater operator as an affiliate, such moves are encouraging, as they provid e additional revenue opportunities based on the quality of its content alone. We also believe the (%)(%)(%) 1M1M1M 6M6M6M 12M12M12M entry of a US studio into the domestic market, which comes amid 20th Century Fox’s Absolute 11.3 64.3 151.3 current production of its fourth Korean language film, underscores the strong Relative 12.8 56.7 112.3 commercial potential of Korean movies. 330 Showbox Corp. KOSDAQ Upgrade to Buy and Lift TP to W11,000 on earnings revisions 280 We upgrade our rating on Showbox to Buy from Trading Buy and lift our target price by 230 10% to W11,000 (from W10,000), as we revise up our 2015-16 earnings estimates in 180 light of the positive developments in 3Q and the company’s overseas business strategy. 130 While near-term expectations on the company’s future lineup could cause swings in the share price, we believe the domestic tentpole strategy and ad ditional revenue stream 80 9.14 1.15 5.15 9.15 from overseas operations will support a valuation premium. Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Revenue (Wbn) 88 107 72 125 126 131 [Telecom Service / Media] OP (Wbn) 10 5 2 11 11 12 Jee-hyun Moon OP margin (%) 11.4 4.7 2.8 8.8 8.7 9.2 +822-768-3615 NP (Wbn) -5 2 -2 8 10 10 [email protected] EPS (W) -79 38 -27 126 152 161 ROE (%) -4.7 2.3 -1.6 7.3 8.2 7.9 P/E (x) - 84.3 - 67.1 55.6 52.8 P/B (x) 1.0 1.9 2.8 4.7 4.3 4.0 Notes: All figures are based on non-consolidated K-IFRS Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he U.S. PLEASE SEE AANALYSTNALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURESDISCLOSURES & DDISCLAIMERSISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. October 1, 2015 Showbox Earnings forecast and valuation TableTableTable 111.1. Annual earnings trendtrendtrendstrend sss and forecast (Wbn, %) 201220122012 201320132013 201420142014 2015F2015F2015F 2016F2016F2016F Revenue 88 107 72 125 126 Domestic – Film screening 77 91 54 108 96 Domestic – IP 8 9 14 12 16 Exports 2 4 3 4 13 Other 1 3 1 1 1 Operating profit 10 5 2 11 11 OP margin 11.0 5.1 2.5 8.7 8.8 Net profit -5 2 -2 8 10 Net margin -5.6 2.2 -2.4 6.3 7.6 YoYYoYYoY Revenue 21.5 -32.6 73.6 0.6 Domestic – Film screening 17.9 -40.7 100.2 -10.6 Domestic – IP 9.4 54.7 -13.1 30.1 Exports 123.2 -29.6 50.0 200.0 Other 283.4 -58.8 -37.9 -0.4 Operating profit -44.1 -66.5 501.8 1.5 Net profit TTB TTR TTB 20.9 Major assumptions Number of admissions 24,739 29,169 16,070 31,366 28,408 (‘000 persons) The Face Reader, The Thieves , Kundo: Age of the A Violent Prosecutor, Mr. Go, Assassination, Major titles Nameless Gangster: Rampant, Co-productions with Secretly, The Throne Rules of the Time The Divine Move China and the US Greatly Notes: All figures are based on non-consolidated K-IFRS Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Table 222.2. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, W, %) Previous Revised % chg. NoteNoteNote 20202015F20 15F15F15F 20202016F20 16F16F16F 20202015F20 15F15F15F 20202016F20 16F16F16F 20202015F20 15F15F15F 20202016F20 16F16F16F - Revised up number of admissions Revenue 93 98 125 126 34.7 28.3 and changed export estimates Operating profit 6 6 11 11 80.3 81.9 - Reflects revenue revisions Net profit 4 6 8 10 96.4 67.7 - Revised non-operating profit estimates EPS 64 91 126 152 96.9 67.0 OP margin 6.5 6.2 8.7 8.8 Net margin 4.3 5.8 6.3 7.6 Notes: All figures are based on non-consolidated K-IFRS Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates TableTableTable 333.3. Target price calculation Category Valuation NotesNotesNotes Operating value (Wbn) 613 2015F-16F revenue on average P/S (x) Film investment and distribution 125 4.9 613 Highest P/S in the past 2 years Investment asset value (Wbn) 29 Listed stock 11 Book value as of end of 2Q15 Unlisted stock 18 Book value as of end of 2Q15 Investment in associated firms 641 Real estate -56 Total asset value (Wbn) 697 Net debt (Wbn) 62,400 Net asset value (Wbn) 11,000 Rounded Notes: In view of the high earnings volatility of the film distribution business, we used the price-to-sales ratio in calculating our target price; Profit growth expected to turn positive this year Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2 October 1, 2015 Showbox Film lineup Figure 111.1. Korea: Major uupcomingpcoming films include SorrySorry,,,, I Love You, Thank You and The Insiders (both in 4Q154Q154Q15),4Q15 ),),), as well as A Violent Prosecutor (((in(in 20162016)))) Notes: Sorry, I Love You, Thank You scheduled for Oct. release; The Insiders (remake of web cartoon Misaeng ), A Man and Woman (romance), and In the Mood for Love (romance) scheduled for 4Q15 release Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 222.2. China: CCContractContract with Huayi Brothers to coco----produceproduce at least sixsixsix Chinese movies over a threethreethree-three ---yearyear period Notes: Announced in March 2015 Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 333.3. US: CCContractContract with BlumhBlumhouseouse and Ivanhoe to coco----produceproduce at least sixsixsix thriller/horror Korean movies/remakemovies/remakessss over a fivefive----yearyear period Notes: Announced on Sep. 30, 2015. Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 3 October 1, 2015 Showbox Showbox (086980 KQ/Buy/TP: W11,000) Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F (Wbn) 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Revenue 727272 125125125 126126126 131131131 Current Assets 919191 150150150 209209209 268268268 Cost of Sales 626262 105105105 106106106 110110110 Cash and Cash Equivalents 17 21 79 133 Gross Profit 101010 202020 202020 212121 AR & Other Receivables 8 13 13 14 SG&A Expenses 888 999 999 999 Inventories 0 0 0 0 Operating Profit (Adj) 222 111111 111111 121212 Other Current Assets 66 116 117 121 Operating Profit 222 111111 111111 121212 NonNonNon-Non ---CurrentCurrent Assets 505050 262626 ---22-222222 ---69-696969 NonNonNon-Non ---OperatingOperating Profit ---4-444 ---2-222 000 000 Investments in Associates 21 37 37 39 Net Financial Income 1 0 0 0 Property, Plant and Equipment 0 0 0 0 Net Gain from Inv in Associates 0 0 0 0 Intangible Assets 1 -48 -97 -146 Pretax Profit -2 9 11 12 Total Assets 141141141 177177177 187187187 199199199 Income Tax 0 1 2 2 Current Liabilities 373737 646464
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