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08 October 2015 Asia Pacific/South Korea Equity Research Strategy Korea Market Strategy Research Analysts STRATEGY Gil Kim 82 2 3707 3763 [email protected] Takeaways from Busan Corp Day Jennifer Yu 82 2 3707 3738 Figure 1: Average number of meetings per company by sector [email protected] 14 Korea Analysts Keon Han (Technology) 12 82 2 3707 9740 [email protected] 10 Minseok Sinn (Construction/Steel) 8 82 2 3707 8898 [email protected] 6 Kenneth Whee (Oil Refining/Petrochemicals) 4 852 2101 7319 [email protected] 2 Michael Sohn (Auto/Auto Parts/Tires) 82 2 3707 3739 0 Cons. Cons. Disc. Auto & auto Health Care Industrials IT Financials Energy Materials [email protected] Staples parts A-Hyung Cho (Retail/Consumer/Utilities) Source: Credit Suisse 82 2 3707 3735 [email protected] ■ Busan corporate day. Credit Suisse hosted Busan Corporate Day on 5-6 Eric Yoo October, 2015. 168 meetings were scheduled, presented by 25 companies. 82 2 3707 3761 Credit Suisse also held group lunch with key speakers from KRX and [email protected] Showbox and side tours to Hyundai Motor’s Ulsan Plant and shopping Ray Kim complex by Shinsegae/Hansem in Busan City. Among the companies 82 2 3707 3776 presented, Consumer Staples and Discretionary sectors saw the most [email protected] demand for investor meetings. Among those sectors, CJ CGV, Shinsegae, Jung Il Lee and Orion held the most of number of meetings. We believe the growth 82 2 3707 3796 opportunity from China exposures and domestic consumption remain as a [email protected] key area of interest by investors. ■ Evolving Korean movie content industry. Busan International Film Festival, one of the major events in the movie industry, was also taking place. We learn that Korea’s movie industry offers upside potential. The CEO of Showbox, Mr. You Junghoon, as a keynote speaker for the group luncheon, expressed that recent success of the Korean movie industry was driven by the business model shift to quality based on greater variety of themes. The CEO also shared the news that recent agreements with its US and Chinese partners would support the overseas success of Korean movie players. ■ The largest shopping complex in the world. We invited investors to visit the Shinsegae’s Centum City, the largest shopping complex located in Busan City. The number of visitors and ticket price at the Centum City mall could have more upside, according to the company, thanks to strong VIP loyalty and aggressive store expansion plans in the affluent Haeundae area. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 08 October 2015 Focus table Figure 2: Valuation comparison of companies attended Company Ticker Sector Rating Market Cap Price (KRW) Upside EPS (KRW) EPS Growth (%) P/E (x) ROE (%) P/B (x) As of 7 October 2015 (KRW bn) Local Target to TP (%) 15E 16E 15E 16E 15E 16E 15E 15E SK Innovation 096770.KS Energy O 10,541 114,000 141,000 23.7 14,219 11,694 n.m -17.8 8.0 9.7 8.4 0.6 S-Oil 010950.KS Energy O 7,926 70,400 100,000 42.0 8,506 6,588 n.m -22.6 8.3 10.7 17.9 1.4 Samsung Fine Chemicals 004000.KS Materials Not Rated 970 37,600 N/A N/A 2,588 2,098 9.2 -18.9 14.5 17.9 5.6 0.79 Huchems Fine Chemical 069260.KS Materials Not Rated 805 19,700 N/A N/A 1,217 1,375 22.6 13.0 16.2 14.3 10.3 1.55 Songwon Industrial 004430.KS Materials Not Rated 272 11,350 N/A N/A 1,071 1,621 n.m 51.4 10.6 7.0 8.6 0.88 Hyundai Development 012630.KS Industrials O 4,440 58,900 87,000 47.7 3,218 4,538 244.0 41.0 18.3 13.0 10.3 1.9 S-1 012750.KS Industrials N 3,618 95,200 84,000 -11.8 3,770 4,436 20.8 17.7 25.3 21.5 14.7 3.5 Doosan Infracore 042670.KS Industrials Not Rated 1,380 6,650 N/A N/A 89 669 -55.9 651.7 74.7 9.9 0.7 0.49 Hyundai Motor 005380.KS Cons. Disc. N 35,354 160,500 150,000 -6.5 23,372 24,155 -9.2 3.3 6.9 6.6 11.0 0.7 Kia Motors 000270.KS Cons. Disc. O 20,876 51,500 61,000 18.4 6,981 7,912 -5.5 13.3 7.4 6.5 12.0 0.8 Nexen Tire 002350.KS Cons. Disc. O 1,359 14,100 16,300 15.6 1,337 1,401 6.5 4.8 10.5 10.1 13.9 1.4 Mando 204320.KS Cons. Disc. N 1,296 138,000 122,000 -11.6 15,041 19,021 -70.5 26.5 9.2 7.3 12.5 1.1 COSON 069110.KQ Cons. Disc. Not Rated 479 28,650 N/A N/A 584 1,000 n.m. 71.2 49.0 28.6 29.4 11.4 Grand Korea Leisure 114090.KS Cons. Disc. Not Rated 2,106 34,050 N/A N/A 1,724 2,197 -8.5 27.4 19.8 15.5 23.5 4.41 Paradise 034230.KQ Cons. Disc. Not Rated 2,069 22,750 N/A N/A 933 1,147 -12.0 22.9 24.4 19.8 8.2 1.83 CJ CGV 079160.KS Cons. Disc. O 2,359 111,500 164,000 47.1 2,888 5,009 267.3 73.4 38.6 22.3 14.3 5.0 Showbox 086980.KQ Cons. Disc. Not Rated 499 7,970 N/A N/A 140 188 n.m 34.3 56.7 42.4 8.0 4.38 Shinsegae 004170.KS Cons. Disc. Not Rated 2,304 234,000 N/A N/A 36,114 18,855 127.0 -47.8 6.5 12.4 13.0 0.8 CJ O Shopping 035760.KQ Cons. Disc. O 1,142 184,000 270,000 46.7 17,310 21,903 13.4 26.5 10.6 8.4 11.9 1.2 Orion 001800.KS Cons. Staples O 6,000 1,004,000 1,340,000 33.5 34,815 42,131 4.3 21.0 28.8 23.8 15.5 4.2 Binex 053030.KQ Health Care Not Rated 511 16,550 N/A N/A 97 155 -75.9 59.8 170.2 106.5 2.4 3.78 I-Sens 099190.KQ Health Care Not Rated 486 35,600 N/A N/A 1,333 1,734 25.4 30.1 26.7 20.5 14.4 3.57 BNK Financial Group 138930.KS Financials O 3,532 13,800 20,000 44.9 2,074 2,537 -39.4 22.3 6.7 5.4 11.7 0.6 SEMCO 009150.KS IT N 4,624 61,900 58,000 -6.3 2,773 4,110 -59.3 48.2 22.3 15.1 4.4 1.0 Suprema 094840.KQ IT O 327 22,200 27,000 21.6 1,095 1,501 13.3 37.1 20.3 14.8 10.4 2.0 Source: WISEfn Consensus (for Not Rated), Credit Suisse estimates for covered companies Korea Market Strategy 2 08 October 2015 Busan conference Key findings from key note speaker and site tours Korean Film Contents Industry and the vision of Showbox During lunch time on 5 October, Credit Suisse hosted the CEO of Showbox, Mr. You Junghoon, as a keynote speaker. The CEO overviewed the past, present and future of Korean movie contents industry. He expressed that the recent success of Korean movies was driven by the business model shift to quality among domestic movie players, which went for selective projects with lesser production. Investors were interested in finding the strong performance of Korean movies and reading industry trends. We believe the audience largely agreed on improved earnings visibility of movie contents players through the session. The CEO also shared the news about the recent agreements that the company has entered with its US and Chinese partners. Since it sees both US and China markets as facing shortages of some types of movie contents, with the US market dominated by hero series and China having certain limitations in film genres, Showbox would partner with local movie players in each region as a contents supplier. Investors paid great attention on its expansion strategy given that enlarged viewership would offer sequential growth opportunity for Showbox. The CEO was confident of its overseas success given that Korean movie players, including Showbox, hold competitive edge in terms of content depth. Past and present of domestic movie industry. Through recent years, the domestic movie industry has been consistently witnessing an annual rate of 8% CAGR since 2011 thanks to the success of Korean movies.
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