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Cj E&M (130960.Kq) CJ E&M (130960.KQ) Top player in Korea’s media content market Company Report │ Sep 21, 2017 As Korea’s leading media content company, CJ E&M’s efforts to improve its content competitiveness over the past few years have finally begun to bear fruit. Also positive, we point out that the firm has a wide variety of anticipated content lined up for the peak season of 4Q. Meanwhile, thanks to Buy (initiate) the strong success of music group Wanna One, we expect CJ E&M’s music business to continue showing strong growth. Reflecting these positives, we TP W100,000 ( initiate ) predict that CJ E&M’s share price will rise going forward. CP (’17/09/19) W79,500 Sector Media Kospi/Kosdaq 2,416.05 / 674.48 Market cap (common) US$2,729.8mn Outstanding shares (common) 38.7mn Stands as Korea’s number-one media content platform 52W high (’17/01/20) W88,700 CJ E&M is Korea’s number-one content producer/platform operator. Positive low (’16/12/05) W53,800 Average trading value (60D) US$12.1mn results from its investment in content over the past few years are to start being Dividend yield (2017E) 0.25% reflected in the firm’s earnings from 2017, and should continue to boost its Foreign ownership 28.3% earnings figures in 2018. Major shareholders CJ Corp and 5 others 42.9% 1) Media content division: Operating throughout the industry value chain (via its Wellington Management Hong Kong Limited and one other 5.1% broadcasting platforms, drama production and writing arms), the media Share perf 3M 6M 12M content division boasts strong competitiveness. Led by recovering margins, Absolute (%) 5.0 1.4 21.0 we expect the division to drive CJ E&M’s earnings growth going forward. Relative (%p) 5.2 -7.8 19.6 The company is set to secure additional funds from a planned IPO (in 2H17) 2016 2017E 2018F 2019F for Studio Dragon. We also note that anticipation is growing for upcoming Sales 1,538 1,825 2,028 2,173 dramas, such as ‘Black’, ‘Wise Prison Life’, and ‘Mr. Sunshine’. Chg 14.2 18.6 11.2 7.1 OP 28 94 123 161 2) Film business: CJ E&M hopes that the release of ‘The Fortress’, ‘Marital OPM 1.8 5.2 6.1 7.4 Harmony’, ‘Night of Seven Years’ and ‘Silence’ will reverse a slow earnings NP 62 501 172 225 trend at its film business. Backed by the ongoing expansion of its overseas EPS 1,605 12,937 4,440 5,803 production, CJ E&M is aiming to leap forward as a global producer. Chg 14.4 706.2 -65.7 30.7 P/E 44.2 6.1 17.9 13.7 3) Music division: The explosive popularity of Wanna One (boy group created P/B 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 from the TV survival show ‘Produce 101’ aired by CJ E&M’s channel EV/EBITDA 7.4 6.0 6.2 5.7 ‘Mnet’) has drawn attention to the large-scale potential of TV programming ROE 4.0 27.9 8.1 9.7 for the company’s music business. Debt/equity 72.9 66.4 64.5 60.7 Net debt 367 378 367 280 Units: Wbn, %, won, x Note 1: NP excludes minority interests EV estimated at W4.0tn Note 2: EPS, P/E, P/B, ROE based on NP (excl minority interests) We suggest CJ E&M as our top pick for the media sector, initiating coverage Source: NH I&S Research Center estimates with a Buy rating and target price of W100,000. Estimating enterprise value at W4.0tn, we believe that the firm’s share price offers further upside. Of note, by division, enterprise value breaks down as follows: Media content division W1.79tn, film division W0.39tn, music division W1.5tn, and the value of the company’s stake in subsidiary Netmarble Games W2.03tn. Jaemin Ahn, Analyst 822)768-7647, [email protected] Hyojin Lee, Analyst 822)768-7684, [email protected] CONTENTS I. Summary................................................................................................ 3 II. Broadcasting: Value chain holds the key to success.........................................6.. 1. Only CJ E&M and JTBC faring well in sluggish TV ad market 2. Studio Dragon: Set to be listed in 2H17 III. Film business ...........................................................................................1..6.. 1. Waiting for the film business to rebound IV. Music: A stable source of income ............................................................2..0.. 1. TV audition programs to offer new earnings growth opportunity V. Valuation................................................................................................ 22 1. Initiate coverage at Buy and target price of W100,000 2. Earnings to recover from 4Q17 CJ E&M www.nhqv.com I. Summary Leading content We initiate coverage on CJ E&M at Buy, with a target price of W100,000, suggesting the provider/platform play as our top pick for the media sector. Standing as Korea’s number-one content operator boasts provider/platform operator, the company’s business domains encompass broadcasting strong growth (media content), music, film, and performing arts. We view the firm as offering strong potential growth potential at both home and abroad. Buoyed by strengthened content competitiveness, earnings at CJ E&M’s media content division have been growing rapidly. After having performed poorly since 2016, the company’s film business should see earnings improvement from next quarter thanks to promising movie line-ups for 4Q17 and beyond. Also boding well, we view the combination of music and TV shows as offering a winning formula for boosting media players’ revenue figures. Over a long haul, we expect CJ E&M to grow into a leading global production firm via both overseas movie production and exports of its domestic broadcasting content. Media content At a time when the portion of TV advertising out of the overall domestic ad market is set business: Whole to shrink, CJ E&M is playing a leading role in boosting overall TV ad sales. We mainly value chain in place attribute the company’s success in bolstering the competitiveness of its content to the that helps firm to following three reasons: provide quality content First, its value chain: CJ E&M has in place a wide value chain that covers: 1) broadcasting channels; 2) drama producers; 3) a respected drama production company; and 4) screenwriters and actors. Second, viewership: CJ E&M has drawn the attention of young viewers (to its unique programs that come in differentiated formats (ie, new show genres that are aired (like drama series) over the course of several seasons. Third, its financials: Via both ad sales revenue (which is generated from footage ads (ie, video clips featuring scenes from the firm’s TV programs)) and product placement marketing, CJ E&M has smartly reduced its production costs while simultaneously strengthening the quality of its content. With the ad market’s peak season 4Q set to arrive soon, CJ E&M has been preparing diverse line-up of drama offerings for its cable channels (tvN and OCN), including ‘Black’, ‘Hwayugi’, and ‘Wise Prison Life’. We also note that the slated listing (in 2H17) of the company’s drama production subsidiary, Studio Dragon, should highlight its subsidiary value, and also provide CJ E&M with sufficient capital for future investment in content development. Film business: Although CJ E&M’s share of the domestic movie market (in terms of moviegoer Earnings to recover numbers) has fallen from 23% in 2014 to the 17%-level in 2017, we believe the firm has on release of potential (from 2H17) to regain its lost market share through the release of promising promising movies new movies, including ‘The Fortress’, ‘Marital Harmony’, ‘Night of Seven Years’, and ‘Silence’. In addition, in a bid to overcome the limited growth potential of the domestic movie market, CJ E&M plans to beef up its overseas movie production. In overseas markets (Turkey, Vietnam, and Indonesia), the firm’s cooperation with its affiliate CJ CGV should generate positive synergies. 3 CJ E&M www.nhqv.com Music: TV audition The music division has shown the strong earnings growth potential arising from the huge programs to spur popularity of so-called audition programs (talent search-style programs which combine new earnings music with elimination-contest/reality-show TV formats). With Mnet (a cable TV growth channel specializing in music/entertainment that is operated by CJ E&M) airing a series of highly popular elimination-contest audition programs (‘Produce 101’, ‘Show Me the Money’, ‘Idol School’), CJ E&M has seen ‘Wanna One’ (a boy group created from the elimination-contest show ‘Produce 101’) reach stardom status—in this year alone, the group has been featured in over seven high-profile ads. The success of the boy group bodes well for CJ E&M, given that: 1) under a profit-sharing scheme, CJ E&M is to collect 25% of Wanna One’s overall income; and 2) CJ E&M can also expect to see its ad rates rise (in line with the popularity of TV audition programs aired by its channel). Earnings For 2017, we project sales of W1.82tn (+18.6% y-y) and operating profit of W94.5bn improvement to (+237.7% y-y). With CJ E&M’s efforts to improve its content competitiveness over the sustain in 2018 past few years have finally begun to bear fruit from 2017, healthy earnings growth momentum should sustain in 2018. Accordingly, we forecast 2018 sales of W2.03tn (+11.2% y-y) and operating profit of W123.1bn (+30.3% y-y). With all its business domains displaying sound earnings growth, we expect CJ E&M to strengthen its status as Korea’s leading media content player going forward.
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