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Economic Impact Study of Southport Aerospace

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Economic Impact Study of Southport Aerospace Economic Impact Study of Southport Aerospace Prepared by: The University of Manitoba Transport Institute Economic Impact Study for Southport Aerospace Prepared for: Southport Aerospace Incorporated Prepared by: Allister Hickson, Ph.D., CFA Matt Seguire, M.A. University of Manitoba Transport Institute This report is provided “as‐is” and the Contractor makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will the Contractor be liable for any indirect, special, consequential or similar damages. May, 2006 i Table of Contents Page Executive Summary......................................................................................................... 1 1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 2 2.0 Southport Overview .................................................................................................. 2 3.0 Structure and Limitations of Economic Impact Studies....................................... 3 4.0 Methodology............................................................................................................... 4 5.0 Economic Impact of Southport on the Economy................................................... 5 5.1 Expenditures and GDP.......................................................................................... 5 5.2 Employment and Labour Income........................................................................ 8 5.3 Tax Revenues........................................................................................................ 10 ii Executive Summary Located three kilometres outside Portage la Prairie, Southport Aerospace Centre Inc. (Southport) is a not‐for‐profit company that has managed and developed the space which was a former Canadian Air Force base. Further to its management and development activities, the Southport site houses training, research, recreation, manufacturing and accommodation services for the community. This report examines the economic impact of Southport. The expenditure, gross domestic product (GDP), employment, labour income, and taxation effects measured were determined based on surveys distributed to Southport tenants. These are classified as the direct impact of Southport. Additionally, Southport has indirect effects on the economy as expenditures and employment from Southport stimulates regional economic activity. Using multipliers for Manitoba as a whole, these additional impacts were estimated. These are classified as the total effect in the economy due to Southport. As shown in the following table Southport has a significant effect on the economy. Over the next 5 years it will generate $494,000,000 in expenditures, $288,000,000 in GDP, 3,800 jobs, $190,000,000 in labour income and $95,000,000 in taxes. Direct Impact of Total Effect in the Economy Southport Due to Southport (From 2006 to 20111) (From 2006 to 2011) Expenditures ($000,000) 272 494 GDP ($000,000) 165 288 Employment ( #) 1,900 3,800 Labour Income ($000,000) 108 190 Taxation Revenue ( $000,000) 54 95 Annually the expected impact is: Direct Impact of Total Effect in the Economy Southport Due to Southport (Yearly Average from 2006 (Yearly Average from 2006 to to 2011) 2011) Expenditures ($000,000) 54.4 98.8 GDP ($000,000) 33.0 57.6 Employment ( #) 380.0 760.0 Labour Income ($000,000) 21.6 38.0 Taxation Revenue ( $000,000) 10.8 19.0 1 The analysis is based on the time period January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2010. 1 1.0 Introduction This report examines the economic impact of the Southport Aerospace Centre Inc. (Southport). In 1992, Southport assumed control of the buildings and land formerly known as CFB Portage la Prairie. Since that time, the location has become a dynamic centre of commercial activity. More recently, Southport was awarded the opportunity to provide state of the art flight training for the Department of National Defence. The business, training, and recreational aspects provided by Southport contribute a valued social and economic fabric to Manitoba’s Central Plains. 2.0 Southport Overview Southport is a not‐for‐profit management and development corporation located three kilometres south of Portage la Prairie. Before its release in 1992, the space owned and managed by Southport was home to the Canadian Air Force for 50 years. Since assuming responsibility for the management and commercial development of the property, Southport has become more than an organizational body. It is now recognized as a community, home to families and students of the aviation and aerospace industries, as well as the businesses and facilities that serve local residents. The corporation’s mission is to establish a first‐class business centre featuring aviation and aerospace training facilities, research and development of new products, light manufacturing, and educational facilities. Southport has over 81 hectares available for commercial development, over 100,000 square feet of existing structures available for lease, and is one of a few North American industrial locations that maintains its own airport. As a part of the transfer of ownership from the Canadian Forces, Southport obtained a variety of physical assets appropriate for the development of educational and training opportunities. Currently, the training facilities located in Southport are; the Canadian Forces Flying Training School (CFTS), Allied Wings Flight Training Services, Stevenson Aviation and Aerospace Centre, Campus Manitoba, Red River College and Accelerated Christian Education Canada. 2 In addition to the training facilities, the complex has a number of recreational services and residential buildings. An aquaplex, a gymnasium, a golf course, and a bowling alley provide the residents of Southport with a variety of recreational services. Over 180 duplex‐style homes are available for rent on a short and long‐ term basis. The complex also has a full service Canada Post outlet and a convenience store for residents. In March 2005, Southport was awarded a federal contract to host the CFTS program for the Canadian Forces for the next 20 years. Although housed at Southport, the program is being supported by a consortium known as Allied Wings.2 The CFTS program includes primary flight training, multi‐engine training, and rotary flight training. These services will be provided through the development of a training multiplex (including simulators and classroom space), as well as facilities dealing with meteorological services, air traffic control, emergency response, and airfield aviation safety. Initial training is expected to begin in 2006, with the new developments being fully operational in 2007. 3.0 Structure and Limitations of Economic Impact Studies Economic impact models are analytical tools for measuring and predicting the effects of economic activity on a community, city, or country. This type of study provides an objective evaluation of the economic effect that a particular action, group, or organization has on a given area. The principle behind economic impact studies is that the expenditures of one area of economic activity are multiplied throughout the overall economy, creating a ripple effect. By constructing an input‐ output analysis, this cascading effect can be measured in a quantifiable manner. Manipulation of input‐output tables establishes economic impact multipliers, which are used to determine the effect of changes in spending in different areas of the economy. Multipliers represent the relationship between a change in the economy and the economic condition that follows as a result of that change. Multipliers are associated with direct, indirect, and induced effects. The total economic impact of an action is defined as the sum of direct, indirect and induced economic activity. Direct economic activity is typically measured by the 2 Allied Wings includes such groups as Canadian Helicopters Ltd., Canadian Base Operators, and Atlantis Systems International Inc. 3 variables of employment, labour income, expenditures, contributions to gross domestic product, and taxation. Indirect economic activity results from inputs supplied to the direct sector. Induced economic activity represents the trickle‐down effects of direct and indirect actions as they multiply through the entire economy. The indirect and induced effects reflect the leverage that direct activity promotes throughout the economy. Variances that exist between economic impact models are primarily a result of the definition of what constitutes and/or contributes to direct economic activity, the reliability of input data, and the robustness of multipliers. Much like the challenge of clearly identifying what contributes to the direct effect, economic impact studies are also limited by the possibility of double‐counting, or leakages (economic activity occurring outside the immediate community or industry of concern). In this report, the economic impact of Southport was assessed based on survey data from Southport tenants, and multipliers supplied by the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS).3 4.0 Methodology The empirical data for this report was gathered through a survey research design. A survey was designed to acquire current and forecast information related to operating expenditures, capital expenditures, and employment at Southport. Since military staff trained at the site are not permanent residents, an additional survey was constructed to capture their local expenditures.
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