University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Publicly Accessible Penn Dissertations 2015 Organizational Fragmentation and the Trajectory of Militant Splinter Groups Evan James Perkoski University of Pennsylvania, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations Part of the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Perkoski, Evan James, "Organizational Fragmentation and the Trajectory of Militant Splinter Groups" (2015). Publicly Accessible Penn Dissertations. 1943. https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/1943 This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/1943 For more information, please contact [email protected]. Organizational Fragmentation and the Trajectory of Militant Splinter Groups Abstract Militant organizations commonly break down and split apart, with new groups emerging from the ranks of existing organizations. From Syria to Iraq to Afghanistan, militant groups have splintered and proliferated in this way, creating fragmented oppositions that significantly complicate the conflict landscape. This process of organizational splintering historically has created some of the deadliest and most well known organizations including Al Shabaab, Black September, and the Real IRA. However, at other times the new organizations have quickly disappeared, failing to impact the conflict in any meaningful way.What explains this variation in the trajectory of militant splinter groups over time? Specifically, this dissertation explores why some organizational fractures produce new groups that are durable and increasingly radicalized, while others merely fall apart. This is an important topic that has ramifications for how academics and policymakers alike understand the behavior of specific actors and also the evolution of fragmented conflicts around the globe. I develop a new theory to explain variation in rates of survival and radicalization that focuses on the content and the consistency of internal organizational preferences. I argue that the content of group preferences can explain relative rates of radicalization and tactical change whereas the consistency or alignment of those preferences influences their chances of survival. Splinter groups that attract tactical and strategic hardliners are most likely to radicalize while inconsistent internal preferences lead to feuding, a lack of cohesion, and a lower likelihood of survival. Although impossible to directly observe, I show that different pathways of organizational breakdown, which one can observe, strongly shape the distribution of group preferences. In other words, different pathways of group formation have enduring effects on organizational behavior. I test my theory with a mixed-methods research design. The empirical results from analyzing a new data set provide robust cross-national support for my theory while my case study of republican militants in Northern Ireland - supplemented by three months of field world in Belfast, London, and Dublin - demonstrates the theory's causal mechanisms in action. These findings confirm that the conditions leading to group formation play an enduring role, driving group behavior well into the future. Degree Type Dissertation Degree Name Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) Graduate Group Political Science First Advisor Michael C. Horowitz Keywords Fragmentation, Militant Groups, Organizational Dynamics, Political Violence, Radicalization, Terrorism Subject Categories International Relations | Political Science This dissertation is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/1943 Organizational Fragmentation and the Trajectory of Militant Splinter Groups Evan Perkoski A Dissertation in Political Science Presented to Faculties of the University of Pennsylvania in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2015 Supervisor of Dissertation Michael C. Horowitz, Associate Professor of Political Science Graduate Group Chairperson Matthew S. Levendusky, Associate Professor of Political Science Dissertation Committee Avery Goldstein, David M. Knott Professor of Global Politics and International Re- lations Jessica Stanton, Assistant Professor of Political Science Erica Chenoweth, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Denver Organizational Fragmentation and the Trajectory of Militant Splinter Groups c Copyright 2015 Evan Perkoski This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 License To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ Acknowledgment This dissertation would not have been possible without the help and support of an amazing group of family, friends, colleagues, and advisers. I owe much gratitude to the faculty of the Department of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania and especially to those on my dissertation committee: Michael Horowitz, Avery Goldstein, and Jessica Stanton. The three of you provided invaluable feedback and encouragement throughout the entire process. Mike has been an especially helpful and instructive mentor, and I have been lucky to work with and learn from him over the past 5 years. Your research has become a model for my own work. Otherwise, I am grateful to Alex Weisiger, Ed Mansfield, Marc Meredith, Matt Levendusky, Julia Gray, Julia Lynch, and Rudy Sil, all of whom had a profound impact on my graduate education. I am also indebted to those who provided feedback and helped refine this disserta- tion along the way. In addition to everyone who attended presentations at the Interna- tional Security Program's weekly seminar series, panels at both ISA and APSA, and at Uppsala University, I am especially grateful to Alec Worsnop, Ga¨elleRivard Pich´e, Nicholas Miller, and Peter Krause. Your feedback, questions, and recommendations were invaluable. I would be remiss not to mention the profound gratitude and respect I have for Erica Chenoweth. I was fortunate to take her class on the Politics of Terrorism in my junior year at Wesleyan and it was this experience that motivated me to pursue a PhD in political science. There are truly few academics like her. Erica has been the ideal role model, mentor, and colleague, and I am now grateful to count her as a close friend as well. I was also lucky to have a great group of fun, supportive friends (and technically colleagues) in Philadelphia. Graduate school would have been impossible without our dinner parties, games, and nights at Bob and Barbara's. My colleagues at the Kennedy School have been equally invaluable for their support, company, and at times, commiseration. And I am massively grateful for Damian who has kept me sane, motivated, and happy over the past five years. I surely would not be where I am today without the support of my amazing family. My parents, Jim and Maureen, have always placed the needs of their children above their own. I am incredibly grateful for their unwavering support and for their encouragement to follow my passions, wherever it may take me. Carey, Jared, and Joe (and James, Max, and Owen too) have always brightened up my visits to High Street, and your enthusiasm for my career has been a consistent source of motivation. Finally, I am grateful for the two years I spent at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government as a predoctoral and then postdoctoral research fellow in the International Security Program. It has been a tremendous place to work and I have learned so much from my colleagues and especially from Stephen Walt and Steven Miller. Attending seminars with such intelligent people every week has been an incredible experience. I am also thankful for research support from the Smith Richardson Foundation, the Brown Center for iii International Politics, the Horowitz Foundation for Social Science Research, and the University of Pennsylvania. iv Abstract Organizational Fragmentation and the Trajectory of Militant Splinter Groups Evan Perkoski Michael C. Horowitz Militant organizations commonly break down and split apart, with new groups emerging from the ranks of existing organizations. From Syria to Iraq to Afghanistan, militant groups have splintered and proliferated in this way, creating fragmented op- positions that significantly complicate the conflict landscape. This process of organi- zational splintering historically has created some of the deadliest and most well known organizations including Al Shabaab, Black September, and the Real IRA. However, at other times the new organizations have quickly disappeared, failing to impact the con- flict in any meaningful way.What explains this variation in the trajectory of militant splinter groups over time? Specifically, this dissertation explores why some organi- zational fractures produce new groups that are durable and increasingly radicalized, while others merely fall apart. This is an important topic that has ramifications for how academics and policymakers alike understand the behavior of specific actors and also the evolution of fragmented conflicts around the globe. I develop a new theory to explain variation in rates of survival and radicalization that focuses on the content and the consistency of internal organizational preferences. I argue that the content of group preferences can explain relative rates of radicaliza- tion and tactical change whereas the consistency or alignment of those preferences influences their chances of survival. Splinter