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THE CHINESE RAILWAY MARKET Facts, Figures, Players and Trends

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THE CHINESE RAILWAY MARKET Facts, Figures, Players and Trends 2018 THE CHINESE RAILWAY MARKET Facts, Figures, Players and Trends THE CHINESE RAILWAY MARKET Facts, Figures, Players and Trends Available in English from 09th January 2019. Now you can also purchase the data annex in Excel format (see overview data sheets on page no. 6 for more information). The Chinese market for railway technology will remain at a high level over the next five years but will not grow further. Following large and heavily subsidised investments into new rolling stock in 2018 and 2020, the OEM market will decline after 2020. The negative development in the OEM market is compensated by the dynamically growing After-Sales market. Due to overcapacity, Chinese companies have to put stronger focus on international markets in order to balance the slowing development in the national market. In the new study "The Chinese Railway Market", SCI Verkehr provides a first-hand analysis of latest plans and developmental targets in the currently most important country for railway technology. The Chinese railway technology market has a current volume of EUR 34 billion and will continue to grow by 0.6% up to 2022. The internationally most important railway technology market will mainly benefit from the growing After-Sales market (CAGR +7.1%). New business, however, will show negative developments (CAGR -3.4%), mainly due to decreasing procurements in the high-speed-segment. Over the past ten years, China evolved into the largest and one of the most dynamic railway transport markets, worldwide. Large investments were made into the railway sector, the high-speed network in particular. In 2010 and 2015, expenditures reached their peak values of almost EUR 120 billion, each driven by government economic stimulus plans. Since then a certain level of saturation has been observable and investments into railway technology in China have declined, however, still remaining at a high level, overall. Heavy investments into new rolling stock will be made once again between 2018 and 2020. In total, 900 new high-speed trains, 4 000 locomotives and 210 000 freight wagons are to be procured in the mentioned time period. SCI Verkehr expects a decreasing trend in new business afterwards. The After-Sales market in China experienced fast growth due to massive fleet and network extensions realised in recent years and, compared to new business, gained in importance. For manufacturers decreasing new procurement market volumes in the medium term induce the risk of significant overcapacity in their production plants, in particular for the three large state-owned enterprises CRRC, CRCC and CREC. A growing national maintenance market as well as more export to international markets can remedy this situation. In the last years, the enterprises were able to secure contracts in almost all regions of the world. Nevertheless, Chinese railway technology enterprises still are not of key significance in larger regions such as Europe, North America and the CIS. In concrete terms, this MultiClient study includes: – Depiction of the structure of the Chinese railway market and analysis of important drivers – Presentation of development trends and planned projects – Trends and size of the market and future procurement potential up to 2023 – Analysis and forecast of the transport markets for freight and passenger transport up to 2023 – Description and evaluation of the demand for rolling stock and infrastructure services – Overview and profiles of the major players in the Chinese railway market © SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • The Chinese Railway Market 2 Explore our additional offer of the data annex in Excel format – All in this study displayed figures and graphs concerning markets, installed bases and deliveries are transparently and comprehensively available – Apply the data sets for an individual evaluation and configuration or to access and supplement available market data The market study is based on a number of sources of information from the press and discussions with experts which are continuously analysed, validated and entered into the SCI Database. SCI Verkehr GmbH is an independent consultancy company specialising in the technology and economics of transport. We have close connections to the rail industry, with consultants in a wide range of specialist fields. We have an extensive network of experts in Germany and abroad and we specialise in market and strategy aspects for the mobility sector. Our activities focus on companies in the transport and rail industry, logistics, public and private transport companies and transport and economics departments in public administration at federal, regional and municipal level. Your contact: SCI Verkehr GmbH Phone: +49 221 93178 20 Fax: +49 221 93178 78 Email: [email protected] © SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • The Chinese Railway Market 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Executive Summary: The Chinese Railway Market ............................................................ 17 1.1 Trends and Drivers ..................................................................................................................... 18 1.2 Market Volumes and Players ..................................................................................................... 20 2 Introduction and Methodology ........................................................................................... 29 2.1 Objectives and Background ...................................................................................................... 29 2.2 Delimitation of the Rail Market ................................................................................................... 30 2.3 Temporal Focus ......................................................................................................................... 33 2.4 Market Analysis Methodology .................................................................................................... 34 2.5 Railway Infrastructure/ Systems Technology Forecast .............................................................. 36 2.6 After-Sales Market Forecast ....................................................................................................... 37 3 Market Structures ................................................................................................................ 38 3.1 Macroeconomic drivers ............................................................................................................. 38 3.2 Institutional Structure ................................................................................................................. 39 3.3 Operation Structure .................................................................................................................... 41 3.4 Funding Structure ...................................................................................................................... 42 3.5 Investment .................................................................................................................................. 43 3.6 Rolling stock OEM players and infrastructure/system technology contractors ........................ 44 4 The Chinese Railway Transport Markets ........................................................................... 46 4.1 Rail Freight Transport ................................................................................................................. 47 4.2 Mainline Passenger Rail Transport ............................................................................................ 50 4.3 Urban Rail Transport .................................................................................................................. 51 5 New Development and Upgrade Projects of Infrastructure ............................................... 55 5.1 High-Speed Projects .................................................................................................................. 55 5.2 Suburban Rail Projects .............................................................................................................. 58 5.3 Urban Rail Projects .................................................................................................................... 60 6 The Chinese Market for Infrastructure ............................................................................... 65 6.1 Network Development ................................................................................................................ 65 6.2 Track Systems ............................................................................................................................ 67 6.3 Electrification .............................................................................................................................. 70 7 The Chinese Market for System Technology ..................................................................... 73 7.1 Control Command and Signalling ............................................................................................. 73 7.2 Passenger-Related Information Technology ............................................................................. 76 © SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • The Chinese Railway Market 4 8 The Chinese Market for Rolling Stock ................................................................................ 79 8.1 Electric Locomotives .................................................................................................................. 79 8.2 Diesel Locomotives ...................................................................................................................
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