6.2 Model Development
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HS2 Phase Two Model Development Report: PLANET Framework Model version 4.3-5.2 January 2016 CS392J_3 High Speed Two (HS2) Limited has been tasked by the Department for Transport (DfT) with managing the delivery of a new national high speed rail network. It is a non-departmental public body wholly owned by the DfT. High Speed Two (HS2) Limited, One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5AB Telephone: 020 7944 4908 General email enquiries: [email protected] Website: www.gov.uk/hs2 High Speed Two (HS2) Limited has actively considered the needs of blind and partially sighted people in accessing this document. The text will be made available in full on the HS2 website. The text may be freely downloaded and translated by individuals or organisations for conversion into other accessible formats. If you have other needs in this regard please contact High Speed Two (HS2) Limited. © High Speed Two (HS2) Limited, 2016, except where otherwise stated. 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Contents 1 Introduction 2 1.1 Background 2 1.2 Model Development 2 1.3 Quality Assurance 4 1.4 Report Structure 4 2 PFMv4.4 6 2.1 Summary of Changes 6 2.2 Model Development 6 2.3 Quality Assurance 7 3 PFMv4.5 9 3.1 Summary of Changes 9 3.2 Model Development 9 3.3 Quality Assurance 12 4 PFMv4.6 15 4.1 Summary of Changes 15 4.2 Model Development 15 4.3 Quality Assurance 22 5 PFMv4.7 28 5.1 Summary of Changes 28 5.2 Model Development 28 5.3 Quality Assurance 35 6 PFMv4.8 39 6.1 Summary of Changes 39 6.2 Model Development 39 6.3 Quality Assurance 40 7 PFMv5.0 42 7.1 Summary of Changes 42 7.2 Model Development 42 7.3 Quality Assurance 49 8 PFMv5.1 51 8.1 Summary of Changes 51 8.2 Model Development 51 8.3 Quality Assurance 62 9 PFMv5.2 65 9.1 Summary of Changes 65 9.2 Model Development 65 9.3 Quality Assurance 68 Glossary 71 Appendix A – Model Development Updates: Further Information 74 i PFMv4.3 - 5.2 Model Development Report 1 Introduction 1.1 Background 1.1.1 HS2 Ltd is preparing for the Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC) for Phase 2A of the HS2 scheme. The SOBC is the next iteration of the HS2 Economic Case for publication. The previous publication of the HS2 Economic Case was to support the hybrid Bill for Phase 1 of the HS2 scheme, which was presented to Parliament during the 2013/14 session. 1.1.2 The HS2 scheme comprises a network of new high speed rail lines that are due to be connected and completed in a series of phases: Phase 1 is due for completion in 2026 and will see high speed train services linking London and Birmingham; Phase 2, which is forecast for completion in 2033, completes a Y-shaped network, with lines running on to Manchester and Leeds; and Phase 2A is an intermediate phase, which aims to bring forward high speed services into Crewe to provide a fast link to the West Coast Mainline (WCML) by 2027, just one year after completion of Phase 1. 1.1.3 The PLANET Framework Model (PFM) is the primary tool for forecasting HS2 ridership and calculating associated benefits and revenue to support the HS2 Economic Case. Since the hybrid Bill in 2013/14, the PFM has been enhanced in order to better support the business case. 1.2 Model development 1.2.1 The model development undertaken since the publication of the previous business case has been carried out in a series of step-changes which are presented in chronological order in the remaining chapters of this Model Development Report (MDR). The updates were to PFMv4.3, the version of the model that was used to support the hybrid Bill. 2 PFMv4.3 - 5.2 Model Development Report Table 1 - Model Development Step Changes since PFMv4.3 Step- Description of change and reasoning change PFMv4.4 PFMv4.4 incorporates minor model improvements to address known issues identified during the audit and quality assurance processes carried out on PFMv4.3. PFMv4.4 also includes the automation of the Numerical Integration (NI) appraisal process. PFMv4.5 PFMv4.5 consists of a series of development opportunities which had been identified as part of the previous model audit and quality assurance of PFMv4.3, along with some previously identified automations which improve the running of the model. PFMv4.6 Compared to PFMv4.5, model version PFMv4.6 incorporates minor model improvements to resolve some of the issues raised by the audit and quality assurance process. There are also a number of changes designed to improve the usability and efficiency of the model. PFMv4.7 Compared to PFMv4.6, PFMv4.7 incorporates a number of significant changes, including: updated future-year demand matrices that take account of revised growth forecasts of rail, air and highway demand. The rail growth takes account of the WebTAG update in Autumn 20141, as well as incorporating elements of the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) v5.1 guidance and the latest forecasts of the economic and cross-modal demand drivers, including gross domestic product (GDP), employment, population and rail fares; as a result of revised rail growth assumptions, the cap year on demand growth has changed from 2036 to 2040; as well as the forecasting models, assumptions within the demand and appraisal models have also been updated to be consistent with the guidance contained within the WebTAG Autumn 2014 release. Most importantly, this involves updating the GDP assumptions used to grow values of time in the appraisal model to be consistent with those used by the demand forecasts; and there have also been updates to the control matrices, highway preloads and air transit lines, together with a number of fixes to small bugs within the model. PFMv4.8 Compared to PFMv4.7, PFMv4.8 incorporates updated HS transit line service coding that takes into account revised reliability assumptions. PFMv5.02 Further to PFMv4.8, PFMv5.0 incorporates a partial ‘Do Minimum’ (DM) network update. These updates to the DM have been derived from: a review of the existing DM networks based around the individual Train Operating Company’s (TOC) coding; and updated DM specifications from the Department for Transport (DfT). PFMv5.1 PFMv5.1 is the model release which combines the following updates: Further updates to the DM transit line coding, in particular focusing on East Coast Mainline (ECML), East Midlands (EM), London Midland (LM) and Chiltern TOCs. Revised HS2 timetable for high speed services in Phase 1 and Phase 2. Revised rail demand forecasts through an amendment to the employment growth driver applied within the forecasting process. Update to the generalised journey time (GJT) elasticity applied in the regional models to be consistent with PDFHv5.1 rather than PDFHv4.1. 1 WebTAG Databook Autumn 2014 Forthcoming Changes 2 It should be noted that this test was originally called 4.9, but was renamed for release as PFMv5.0. 3 PFMv4.3 - 5.2 Model Development Report Step- Description of change and reasoning change PFMv5.2 PFMv5.2 contains changes to the rail fares growth assumptions contained within the model. These changes altered the cap year which became 2037. This change has been made to align with the government’s election manifesto that rail fares will not grow faster than RPI during the 5-year term from May 2015. 1.3 Quality assurance 1.3.1 When model development updates are made to the PFM, the work carried out under these model developments is subject to rigorous quality assurance (QA) processes to ensure that they are correctly implemented. This is carried out by the model developers and HS2 Ltd. 1.3.2 In general, three standard levels of checking that may be used: Yellow check – These are carried out by the model developers and includes checks of the setup of model runs, checks that model run outputs have been produced correctly and checks that results from the model are sensible through a key indicators form; Orange check – Carried out by the model developers, this is a more detailed check of the model inputs and outputs and also involves the production of a note detailing the checks. For changes to model code (macros and batch files, etc), it involves a line-by-line check of changes implemented, documented in tabular form; or Red check – This involves a full QA of all aspects of the model, with a full acceptance criteria note produced by the model developer. This also includes line-by-line checks of all files within the modelling framework. 1.3.3 Further to the above checks, some additional checks may be performed by HS2 Ltd or through an independent peer review. 1.3.4 HS2 Ltd’s independent auditor has also checked the model at each stage of the development process and signed off the changes made. 1.3.5 The QA processes carried out during this period of model development are documented within this MDR.