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Presentación De Powerpoint Cemex Latam Holdigs CEMEX Will Launch Takeover Bid for CLH’s Float Speculative Overweight, TP COP5,900 Cement Economic, Industry and Market Research September 2020 Analysts CEMEX Will Launch Takeover Juliana Aguilar Vargas, CFA Cement and Infrastructure Analyst Bid for CLH’s Float [email protected] Silvia Natalia Andrade Rodriguez Speculative Overweight, TP COP5,900 Equity Strategist [email protected] Today we learned that CEMEX, CLH’s parent company, will launch a takeover bid to acquire CLH’s float (26.84% of total outstanding shares), at a price of COP3,250/share. Cemex Latam Holdings Although the price at which the bid will be made offers an upside of 16% Target price (COP) 5,900 Closing price (COP) compared to the current market price, we believe that it is well below the fair September 7, 2020 2,805 value of the company, which for us is COP5,900/share, and which does not Upside potential 110% incorporate the Maceo plant. 52-week range (COP) 1,360-4,650 The bid price implies an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.1x for 2020E and 6.2x for Market cap (COPmn) 1,561,882 Outstanding shares (mn) 556,8 2021E, and an EV/ton of USD127/ton, excluding Maceo. Float (mn) 149.6 Average daily trading volumen 898.5 Despite the fact that we see a greater fundamental potential, we recommend 12 months (COPmn) participating in the takeover bid since we consider that the possible Dividend yield 0% decrease in the liquidity of the share given the execution of the bid could Total return 110% limit the materialization of its fundamental potential. According to the statement from the Financial Superintendency, CLH’s share will be suspended until the day after the takeover bid notice is published. CEMEX estimates that the review of the bid by the Super will take 2 to 4 weeks. It is important to bear in mind that according to FTSE Russell, CLH should exit the Small Cap index in the next rebalancing on September 18 becoming part of the Micro-Cap group. Given the recent news and the scenario of having CLH’s share suspended for this date, we believe this exit could not be carried out, which, according to international analysts, could represent sales for up to 15 trading days. Economic, Industry and Market Research Juan Pablo Espinosa Arango Chief Economist and Head of Economic, Industry and Market Research [email protected] Economic research Industry Research Equity Research Arturo Yesid González Peña Jhon Fredy Escobar Posada Jairo Julián Agudelo Restrepo Quantitative Analyst Head of Agroindustry Research Head of Equity Research [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Santiago Espitia Pinzón Nicolás Pineda Bernal Diego Alexander Buitrago Aguilar Macroeconomic Analyst Head of Commerce Research Energy Analyst [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Bryan Hurtado Campuzano Juan Sebastián Neira Orozco Andrea Atuesta Meza International and Regional Analyst Commerce Industry Analyst Financial Sector Analyst [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Paolo Betancur Montoya Juan Manuel Pacheco Perez Agroindustry Analyst Juliana Aguilar Vargas, CFA International and Markets Analyst [email protected] Cement & Infrastructure Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Javier David Villegas Juan Camilo Meneses Cortes Real Estate and Hotels Analyst Ricardo Andrés Sandoval Carrera Central Banking and Financial System [email protected] Oil & Gas & Airlines Analyst Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Valentina Gómez Garzón Commerce Sector Analyst [email protected] Valentina Martínez Jaramillo Laura Natalia Capacho Camacho Consumer & Industry Analyst Interrn Juan Esteban Echeverri Agudelo [email protected] [email protected] Administrative Assistant [email protected] Andrés Uribe Rendón Junior Analyst [email protected] Research Assistant Alejandro Quiceno Rendón Jairo Andrés Burgos Guerra Research Editor Intern [email protected] [email protected] Terms of use This report has been prepared by Analysis Bancolombia a research and analysis department at Grupo Bancolombia. It shall not to be distributed, copied, sold, or altered in any way without the express permission of Grupo Bancolombia, nor be used for any purpose other than to serve as background material which does not constitute an offer, advice, recommendation, or suggestion by Grupo Bancolombia for making investment decisions or conducting any transactions or business. The use of the information provided is solely the responsibility of the recipient. Before making an investment decision, you should assess multiple factors such as the risks of each instrument, your risk profile, your liquidity needs, among others. This report is only one of many elements that you should consider in making your investment decisions. In order to extend the content of this information, we ask you to contact your business manager. We recommend you not to make any investment decision until fully understanding all factors involved in such decisions. Fixed income and equity securities, interest rates, and other information found here are purely informational and are not an offer or firm demand to perform transactions. Also, according to the applicable regulations, our opinions or recommendations do not constitute a commitment or guarantee of return for the investor. The information and opinions in this research report constitute a judgment as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. The information may therefore not be accurate or current. Future projections, estimates, and forecasts are subject to several risks and uncertainties that prevent us from ensuring that they will prove correct or accurate, or that the information, interpretations, and knowledge on which they are based will be valid. In that sense, actual results may substantially differ from the forward-looking statements contained here. You should be aware of the fact that investments in securities or other financial instruments involve risks. Past results do not guarantee future performance. The entities that are part of Grupo Bancolombia may have acquired and maintain at the time of preparation, delivery or publication of this report, for their own position or that of their clients, the securities or financial assets to which the reports refers. Grupo Bancolombia has risk policies to avoid a concentration in their own positions and those of their clients, which contributes to avoid conflicts of interest. As regards to conflicts of interest, we declare that (i) Valores Bancolombia S.A. Comisionista de Bolsa and/or Banca de Inversión Bancolombia S.A. Corporación Financiera have participated in structuring or underwriting/placing equity securities for Bancolombia S.A., (ii) Grupo Bancolombia is the beneficial owner of 10% or more of the shares issued by Valores Simesa S.A., and Proteccion S.A., (iii) Bancolombia is one of the biggest shareholders of Fondo Inmobiliario Colombia – FIC, and (iv) Valores Bancolombia S.A. Comisionista de Bolsa is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bancolombia S.A. Nevertheless, it has been prepared by our Analysis Bancolombia department team based on strict internal policies that require from us objectivity and neutrality, as well as independence from our areas of brokerage and investment banking. The information contained in this report is not based, does not include nor has been structured based on privileged or confidential information. Any opinions or projections contained herein are solely attributable to the author and have been prepared independently and autonomously in the light of the information available at the time. The content of this message does not constitute a professional recommendation to make investments according to the terms of article 2.39.1.1.2 of the Decree 2555 of 2010 or the regulations that modify, replace or complement it. Rating System The investment recommendation on the issuers under coverage by Analysis Bancolombia is governed by the rating system presented below, subject to the following criteria: The upside potential is the percentage difference between the target price of securities issued by a particular issuer and their market price. The target price is not a forecast of the price of a stock, but a fundamental independent valuation made by Analysis Bancolombia, which seeks to reflect the fair price the market should pay for the shares on a given date. Based on an analysis of the relative upside potential amongst the securities of companies under coverage and the COLCAP index, the ratings of the assets are determined as follows: Overweight: when the upside potential of a stock exceeds by 5% or more the return potential of the COLCAP index. Market Weight: when the upside potential of a stock does not differ by more than 5% from the return potential of the COLCAP index. Underweight: when the upside potential of a stock is 5% or more below the return potential of the COLCAP index. Under Review: the company’s coverage is under review and therefore there’s no rating or target price. Additionally, at the discretion of the analyst, the speculative qualification that complements the recommendation will continue to be used, taking into account the risks seen in the performance of the asset, its future development and the volatility the movement of the stock may show. The fundamental potential of the index is determined based on the methodology established by the BVC for the calculation of the COLCAP index, considering the target prices published by Analysis Bancolombia. This will be made with the Colcap basket on the dates of calculation May and November of every year. For the companies part of the index but not covered, the consensus of market analysts will be used. Currently, Analysis Bancolombia has 19 companies under coverage, distributed as follows: Overweight Market Weight Underweight Under Review Number of issuers with ratings of: 9 1 7 1 Percentage of issuers with ratings of: 50% 6% 38% 6%.
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