Trends of Extreme Flood Events in the Pearl River Basin During 1951–2010
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ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 4(2): 110{116, 2013 www.climatechange.cn DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.110 CHANGES IN CLIMATE SYSTEM Trends of Extreme Flood Events in the Pearl River Basin during 1951{2010 WU Zhi-Yong1;2, LU Gui-Hua1;2, LIU Zhi-Yu3, WANG Jin-Xing3, XIAO Heng1 1Institute of Water Problems, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China 2National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources E±cient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China 3Water Resources Information Center of the Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China Abstract The study investigated the trend of extreme flood events in the Pearl River basin during 1951{2010. Stream flow data at 23 gauging stations were used for the study. The Pearson type III distribution was selected for the flood frequency analysis. Results indicate that extreme flood events increase signi¯cantly in the Pearl River Basin since 1980. At the 23 gauging stations, there are 16 (70%) stations show positive (increasing) trends in 1981{2010. Most of the 16 stations are located along the West River and North River. While 7 (30%) stations show negative (decreasing) trends, and are found in the East River and the southeast region of the West River Basin. Keywords: flood; trend; climate change; Pearl River Basin Citation: Wu, Z.-Y., G.-H. Lu, Z.-Y. Liu, et al., 2013: Trends of extreme flood events in the Pearl River Basin during 1951{2010. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4(2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.110. 1 Introduction The e®ect of extreme hydro-meteorological events caused by climate change is a public issue. Recently, Global warming in recent decades is unequivo- the IPCC has released a special report [IPCC, 2012], cal, as is now evident from observations of increases which focused on the relationship between climate in global mean surface air temperatures, widespread change and extreme weather and climate events, the melting of snow and ice, and rising global sea level impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage [IPCC, 2007]. Observed warming over several decades the associated risks. This report provides a careful has been linked to changes in the large-scale hydro- assessment of the newest scienti¯c, technical, and so- logical cycle [Bates et al., 2008]. In the last 20 years, cioeconomic ¯ndings in this ¯eld. As there are great floods are becoming more severe or more frequent in uncertainties in predicting precipitation changes in China (e.g., Yangtze River flood in 1991, Pearl River general circulation models, it is still di±cult to rea- flood in 1994 and 1996, Haihe River flood in 1996, sonably evaluate the influence of climate change on Minjiang River flood in 1998, Hanjiang River flood in extreme precipitation and floods [Guo, 1995; IPCC, 2003 and 2005, Huaihe River flood in 2003, 2005 and 2012]. Thus, most of current researches focus on the 2007), which has led to losses of about 1.5% of the detection of trends, periods and change in river flow gross domestic product (GDP). series based on observed data [Kundzewicz et al., 2005; Received: 28 January 2013 Corresponding author: WU Zhi-Yong, wuzhiyong¡[email protected] 1 WU Zhi-Yong et al. / Trends of Extreme Flood Events in the Pearl River Basin during 1951{2010 111 Cunderlik and Ouarda, 2009; Xu et al., 2009]. How- in the past. Since 1990, extreme floods have succes- ever, only few studies on trends in flood magnitude sively occurred (in the whole basin in June 1994, the and frequency can be found [Collins, 2009]. There- Liujiang River in July 1996, and the West River in fore, this study is mainly to investigate the trends in June 1998 and June 2005) [She and Xie, 2007], which the magnitude of extreme flood events using long-term have a seriously negative impact on the regional social stream flow records in the Pearl River Basin. and economic development. 2 Data and methodology 2.2 Data 2.1 Study region Daily stream flow data at 23 gauge stations in 1951{2010 were obtained from the Information Center The Pearl River is the second largest river (in of the Ministry of Water Resources. Figure 1 shows terms of stream flow magnitude) in China with three the geographic distribution of the 23 stations in the major tributaries: West River, North River and East Pearl River Basin. Of all the stations, 16 are located River. The Pearl River Basin is located in the tropical along the West River, 3 along the North River, 2 along and sub-tropical climate zone with annual mean tem- the East River, and 2 are found in the eastern re- peratures ranging from 14±C to 22±C and annual mean gion of Guangdong province and the southern region of precipitation ranging from 800 mm to 2,500 mm. Pre- Guangxi autonomous region. There are 4 stations con- cipitation during April{September accounts for 70%{ trolling a catchment area of more than 100,000 km2, 80% of the annual total amount. Influenced by the 13 stations covering catchment areas between 10,000 southwest monsoon, its geographic location and land- and 100,000 km2 and 6 stations with a catchment area form, flood disasters happened frequently in this basin less than 10,000 km2. Figure 1 Geographic distribution of the 23 gauging stations in the Pearl River Basin Meteorological data are obtained from the daily of 89 meteorological stations located in the Pearl River climate database with 752 basic meteorological sta- Basin and nearby to calculate the annual mean tem- tions nationwide from 1951 to 2010, collected from perature and precipitation during 1951{2010. Figure the China Surface Climate Daily Value Set on 2 shows that the annual mean temperature has an in- China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System creasing trend during 1951{2010 and becomes signif- (http://cdc.cma.gov.cn/index.jsp). We used the data icantly higher after the mid-1980s. For the annual 112 ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH precipitation, no obvious trends are apparent. How- 40 years covered in their study, which could increase ever, Wang et al. [2006] found that precipitation is the probability of flood and drought disasters in the unevenly distributed within a year during the recent Pearl River Basin. Figure 2 Annual mean temperature (a) and annual precipitation (b) and the linear trend in the Pearl River Basin during 1951{2010 2.3 Methodology least 10 days for catchments with areas between 3,000 km2 and 45,000 km2, at least 15 days for catchments According to the manual Standard of Hydrologi- with areas between 45,000 km2 and 100,000 km2, and cal Information and Hydrological Forecasting (GB/T at least 25 days for catchments greater than 100,000 22482-2008) o±cially issued by the Ministry of Water km2. Resources, extreme flood events are de¯ned as at least The Pearson type III frequency distribution has 10-year flood events. This de¯nition is taken for this been extensively used in China, speci¯cally in the study. southern region [Li, 1984], and is recommended for The analysis of extreme flood events can be con- calculating the design flood. Moreover, it is easily to ducted using the annual-maximum (AM) approach be compared with related studies. Therefore, we se- and the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach. Three lected this frequency distribution for flood frequency indices were calculated to describe the characteristics analysis. of floods using both approaches. The ¯rst index is the annual maximum daily mean stream flow (AM1), 3 Results i.e., only the maximum daily mean stream flow of each year is retained. We also selected the largest indepen- 3.1 Frequency of flood events dent flood event per year (POT1) and average three largest events per year (POT3) for 1951{2010, because The frequency of extreme flood events is shown no generally acknowledged method has been proposed in Figures 3 and 4. The results indicate that the flood to determine a value of threshold [Guo, 2005]. The events have signi¯cantly increased after the 1980s, in peaks in POT series were considered to be indepen- particular for the extreme flood events in the last two dent of each other if they were separated by a par- decades. For example, floods with return periods 20{ ticular time interval. Based on the results of other 50 years have occurred 13 times during 1991{2000 and researches [Svensson et al., 2005; Petrow and Merz, more than 50-year-flood events have happened 5 times 2009] and inspection of the time series, the time in- during 2001{2010. These are the highest frequen- terval between peaks was set to at least 5 days for cies of the two return period categories during 1951{ catchments with areas no more than 3,000 km2, at 2010. WU Zhi-Yong et al. / Trends of Extreme Flood Events in the Pearl River Basin during 1951{2010 113 Figure 3 Occurrence of floods at the 23 stations in the Pearl River Basin during 1951{2010 periods are shown from Figure 5 to Figure 7. Among the 23 analyzed stations, 16 (70%) sta- tions show positive (increasing) trends and 7 (30%) stations show negative (decreasing) trends for the 50- year flood based on the AM1 time series. Most sta- tions with positive trends are located along the West River and the North River. The highest increase of the 50-year flood with 53.1% is found for Yongwei sta- tion along the West River. The majority of stations with negative trends are found in the southwest part of the West River Basin and the East River Basin.