Climate Variability and Human Activities in Relation to Northeast Asian Land-Ocean Interactions and Their Implications for Coastal Management 2005-05-CMY-Adrianov Final Report submitted to APN ©Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research, 2006 Overview of project work and outcomes Summary In course of the 2-year APN-funded project, new data on estuarine and coastal changes in areas adjoining the Amur, Tumen and Razdolnaya Rivers were obtained, and recommendations for management of sustainable coastal development of the region are presented including China and Korea coastal zones. Two expeditions to Amur and Razdolnaya Rivers mouth areas were orga- nized, and hydrological regime, oceanography, environmental contamination, state of benthic and plankton comminities were investigated in connection with climatic changes. Three workshops were held: in Nanjing, China, Dec. 2004; Training Course for Young Scientists, Vladivostok, Russia, Oct. 2005; back-to-back with a science session for local policy-makers; in Vladivostok, May 2006. A website of the project was created (http://www.imb.dvo.ru/misc/apn/index.htm), and two books, Ecological Studies and State of the Ecosystem of Amursky Bay and Razdolnaya River Mouth and a collective monograph are in preparation. Two books and 19 papers in peer- reviewed journals were published and/or prepared. Future directions may include comparison of different coastal management strategies and understanding of how we can use these national strategies to develop complex management approach. Objectives The main objectives of the project were: 1. to identify estuarine and coastal changes in terms of hydrology, hydrochemistry, geo- chemistry, geomorphology, ecosystem and material cycling patterns of the Northeastern Asia region, with special reference to the Amur, Tumen and Razdolnaya Rivers; 2. to evaluate the sensitivity of regional changes in relation to anthropogenic processes and climate change; 3. to provide recommendations to management of sustainable coastal development of the region and to provide assistance to policy/decision makers. Amount received for each year supported and number of years supported 2004–2005 – 60,000 USD 2005–2006 – 58,000 USD Participating Countries Participants from the following countries were funded: P.R. China, Republic of Korea and Russia. Work undertaken One the main activities in course of the project was collection, compilation and collation of the existing data sets and literature reviews on the changes in coastal and near-estuarine areas which included the following topics: climatic tendencies in the North East Asia and Northwest Pacific; climatic changes and river discharges; seasonal and annual variability of the concentration and output of nutrients by the Razdolnaya (Suyfun) River (Russia); con- centration of metals in the rivers of the southern part of the Russian Far East; state of coastal ecosystems in near-estuarine areas of Razdolnaya (Suyfun), Tumen and Amur Rivers (Russia); long-term changes in the hydrological regime of the Amur River; changes in material fluxes from the Changjiang (Yangtze) River in China; coastal zone management in China; environ- ment management for Han River estuary in Korea; and nature management within the Russian Far East coastal zones. Expeditions and field-works. In 2005, two expeditions were undertaken: 1) expedition to the Razdolnaya (Suifun) River mouth and neigboring areas of Amursky Bay, Sea of Japan, June– 1 September, 2005; and 2) expedition with the R/V Professor Gagarinsky to the Amur River estu- ary, July, 2005 (see details about both expeditions: http://www.imb.dvo.ru/misc/apn/e_017.htm). Chinese team carried our field-works in 2005–2006 in Changjiang (Yangtze) and Tumen Rivers. Workshops. First project workshop, Climate variability and human activities in relation to Northeast Asian land-ocean interactions and their implications for coastal zone manage- ment, was held in Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, from 4 to 9th December 2004 (Co- organizers, Prof. Shu Gao and Dr. Konstantin A. Lutaenko). Main themes discussed during the workshop were as follows: Good aquaculture practice for sustainable coastal management; Nature management within the Russian Far East coastal zones; Study of the state of coastal ecosystems in the near-estuarine area of Razdolnaya River: comparative analysis of the data of 1980s, 1990s and 2000s; Environment management strategy for Han River estuary in Korea; Long-term changes in the hydrological regime of the Amur River; The impact of climate vari- ability and human activities on flood and drought disaster in the Yangtze Valley; Change in Changjiang suspended load after completion of the Three-Gorges Dam and its impacts on the delta evolution; The changes of sediment concentration and discharge in recent five years from the Pearl River to the Pearl River Delta. The workshop was accompanied by the business meeting to discuss the science plan and implementation strategy structure of the project, and field excursion to the apex areas of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River delta. In 2005, Training Course for Young Scientists in Global Change, October 24–26, 2005 and Scientific Session for Russian Policy-makers focussing on the project activities, October 27, 2005 were held.. During both workshops, the following topics were covered: Compara- tive analysis of environmental changes in the area of Tumen and Razdolnaya Rivers; Climate variability in Northeast Asia; Complex management problems within coastal zones of the Far East; Sea-level rise in the Sea of Japan and its practical aspects; Ecological State of Amursky Bay; Biomarkers of marine environment contamination; Long-term changes in the coastal zone and marine environment in Hong Kong; Chemical and microbiological monitoring of the marine environment. In addition to collecting new information about environmental and coastal changes for the Russian rivers, Korean and Chinese collaborators continued to collect data on the climate variability, human activities, river runoff, changes in physical environment of the coast, material cycling pattern, ecosystem characteristics, and implications on CZM in their area as to be parts of planned joint monograph. In 2006, Final Workshop for authors of the planned collective monograph was held in Vladivostok (May, 24–26). It was decided that future monograph will include the following chapters: Introduction, Climate variability, Human activities, River runoff, Changes in physi- cal environment of the coast, Material cycling patterns, Ecosystem characteristics, Intercom- parison, Implications on CZM, Summary and knowledge gaps. Results Climate. It was shown that ENSO signal and climatic trends in the Northwest Pacific marginal area have similar seasonality and major patterns. Anomaly of ENSO cycle with El Nino prevailing during last several decades seems to be related to semi-centennial tenden- cies in the Northwest Pacific and Northeast Asia. The significant ENSO signal in the NW Asian-Pacific thermal conditions in the ocean and over land including Okhotsk Sea area shows inversed anomalies in winter and summer in the subarctic area. The surface air temperature anomalies in Okhotsk Sea area and SSTs in the subarctic North Pacific are very sensitive to the extratropic ENSO signal. Riverine changes. Changes in the water regime of the Amur River in the last 100 years have led to the disturbance of the ecological equilibrium in the valley of the lower Amur. These 2 changes are fairly dynamic and occur not only in the floodplain of the Amur River, but also in the neighboring flat and mountain territories and in the adjacent areas of the Okhotsk and Japan seas. Razdplnaya River is characterized by the elevated level of easy oxidisable organic sub- stances and ammonium. Relatively increased concentration of these components is observed upstream of river that is caused, probably, by anthropogenic influence in the Chinese part of Razdolnaya River. The phosphates and nitrates concentration in the upstream of Razdolnaya River is close to the basic level. Despite obvious and significant anthropogenic influence on metal concentration in solution and suspended solids of Razdolnaya River, self-cleaning ability of the river is sufficient and in the downstream concentration of the dissolved metals is reduced close to basic level. The basic mechanism of self-cleaning is, probably, sorption on suspended matter. Concentration of metals in downstream of Tumen River does not show heavy anthro- pogenic press, but dissolved Cu, Zn and Cu in suspended matter are higher as compared to downstream of Razdolnaya River and unpolluted rivers of the southern Russian Far East. Within the catchment basin of the Changjiang River, the construction of more than 48000 dams within the river valley has led to sediment discharge reduction by 40% over the last 20 years. In the near future, the mean freshwater discharge will also change, with a more signifi- cant seasonal variability, in response to the water diverting scheme for water supply to northern China. In contrast, the discharge of nutrients (N and P) of the river has been increasing, due to the extensive use of chemical fertilizers and the large output of industrial and domestic sew- age. These changes modify the coastal and shelf oceanographic conditions. The flushing time becomes longer in summer but shorter in winter. Increase in the nutrient input, in association with the shelf environmental setting, generates additional primary and secondary production for the East China Sea region; this, in turn,