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China Overseas Land & Investment Completed 23 Aug 2016 12:48 AM HKT Disseminated 23 Aug 2016 01:00 AM HKT Asia Pacific Equity Research 23 August 2016 Corrected Note (See page 12 for details) China Overseas Land & Neutral Investment 0688.HK, 688 HK The long-term winner of SOE reform gets tested Price: HK$26.85 Price Target: HK$28.00 COLI's interim results were worse than expected, mainly due to margin disappointment. Looking forward with an ASP increase, COLI should be able China to see an inflexion point on margins soon, but we think it is not likely to be in China / Hong Kong Property 2016, when they have to consolidate CITIC's numbers. Such a negative is Ryan Li, CFA AC offset by the fact that COLI should continue to be an acquirer in SOE reform, (852) 2800-8529 which should enable them to grow much faster in scale than the previous [email protected] decade, at the expense of lower ROE though. We maintain our Neutral rating, Bloomberg JPMA RLI <GO> as we see more relative value in CRL, which should experience serial margin Karl Chan expansion due to unique Shenzhen exposure, and we could turn more positive (852) 2800-8513 on COLI only if we see more evidence of synergies brought forth by the [email protected] previous SOE M&As. On such, we remain skeptical. Jevon Jim Margin squeeze persists: We stay skeptical on margin expansion as the (852) 2800-8538 likely low-margin CITIC projects will be booked this year. We think such [email protected] margin squeeze is structural, as over the past 30 months when the J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited government controlled the land supply, the landbank cycle has been lengthened and thus COLI is no longer able to expand counter-cyclically Price Performance with its small landbank, and this inevitably will lead to margin squeeze, and 28 a smaller premium over peers on stock valuation we believe. 24 Potentially the long-term winner in SOE reform: COLI is big enough to HK$ be classified as an acquirer. This is a rather qualitative driver though, as we 20 think synergy for SOE consolidation is not easy to obtain due to restrictions 16 on reform upon mergers, and also NAV impact is uncertain as often share Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 placement is involved. That said, the market may focus more on the story 0688.HK share price (HK$) rather than the numeric impact, and should such strong expectation of SOE R-CHIP (rebased) YTD 1m 3m 12m reform drive the stock to trade at a premium to NAV, it could be treated as a Abs -1.3% 2.7% 19.3% 27.0% positive even if COLI places equity we think. Rel 1.4% -1.7% 6.5% 23.9% COLI - 12-mth rolling P/E Reiterate Neutral as fundamentals are still deteriorating: COLI is now trading at an 11% discount to NAV (historical average: -7%), 8.6x 2016E x P/E (historical average: 10.9x) and a dividend yield of 3.2%. This is about 35.0 -0.5 standard deviation versus the historical average since 2011, which could 30.0 be fair due to a deteriorating ROE. We believe COLI will be a long-term 25.0 winner as they still have great operational efficiency. However, due to 20.0 +2 STDEV 15.0 +1 STDEV margin pressure and decrease in ROE, we think the evolvement of value 10.0 -1 STDEV from COLI could be slower than some of its peers, including CRL and 5.0 -2 STDEV Vanke. 0.0 Jan-08 Sep-09 Jun-11 Mar-13 Nov-14 Aug-16 China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. (Reuters: 0688.HK, Bloomberg: 688 HK) Source: Bloomberg, Company data, J.P. Morgan HK$ in mn, year-end Dec FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Company Data Revenue (HK$ mn) 138,505 148,074 191,517 208,669 235,128 Shares O/S (mn) 9,861 Net Profit (HK$ mn) 27,200 33,312 36,348 40,170 43,963 Market Cap (HK$ mn) 264,757 Core Profit (HK$ mn) 26,093 26,376 31,200 38,170 41,963 Market Cap ($ mn) 34,148 EPS (HK$) 3.33 3.61 3.55 3.67 4.01 Price (HK$) 26.85 Core EPS (HK$) 3.19 2.86 3.05 3.48 3.83 Date Of Price 22 Aug 16 Core EPS growth (%) 37.4% (10.5%) 6.7% 14.2% 9.9% Free Float(%) 46.5% DPS (HK$) 0.55 0.92 0.83 1.05 1.15 3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 17.05 ROE 21.4% 16.2% 14.1% 14.4% 14.1% 3M - Avg daily val (HK$ mn) 423.17 P/E (Core) 8.4 9.4 8.8 7.7 7.0 3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 54.6 P/BV (x) 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 R-CHIP 3943.03 BVPS (HK$) 16.31 19.43 22.90 25.64 28.60 Exchange Rate 7.75 RNAV/Share 32.44 31.32 - Price Target End Date 30-Jun-17 Dividend Yield 2.0% 3.4% 3.1% 3.9% 4.3% Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. See page 12 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com Ryan Li, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research (852) 2800-8529 23 August 2016 [email protected] Key catalysts for the stock price: Upside risks to our view: Downside risks to our view: (1) High and stable ROE; (1) Stronger-than-expected sales; (1) Demand shock caused by substantial deterioration in the macro (2) Low gearing; (2) Better-than-expected margins from the CITIC economy; (3) Low funding cost; assets; (2) More-dilutive-than-expected assets acquisition from CITIC; (4) Improvement in sales (3) Easing policies from government in the cities (3) Further Rmb depreciation against USD COLI is exposed to Key financial metrics FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Valuation and price target basis Revenues (LC) 148,074 191,517 208,669 235,128 Our Dec-16 PT of HK$28 is based on an 8.5x 2016-17E average P/E, Revenue growth (%) 6.9% 29.3% 9.0% 12.7% which is 0.5 S.D. below the historical average. EBITDA (LC) 38,736 47,591 57,680 63,483 EBITDA margin (%) 26.2% 24.8% 27.6% 27.0% Tax rate (%) 24.2% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% Net profit (LC) 33,312 36,348 40,170 43,963 EPS (LC) 3.61 3.55 3.67 4.01 EPS growth (%) 8.5% -1.5% 3.1% 9.4% GAV breakdown DPS (LC) 0.92 0.83 1.05 1.15 BVPS (LC) 19.43 22.90 25.64 28.60 Operating cash flow (LC mn) 34,134 (13,186) 32,549 84,645 0% Free cash flow (LC mn) 34,559 (15,007) 30,737 82,848 13% Interest cover (X) NM NM NM NM Development Net margin (%) 22.5% 19.0% 19.3% 18.7% properties Sales/assets (X) 0.38 0.39 0.38 0.42 Investment Net debt/equity (%) 10.5% 29.6% 22.6% 13.4% properties ROE (%) 16.2% 14.1% 14.4% 14.1% Other investments Key model assumptions FY16E Residential price growth 3% - 10% 87% WACC 11.5% Source: Bloomberg, Company data and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Company data and J.P. Morgan estimates. Sensitivity analysis NAV EPS JPMe vs. consensus, change in estimates Sensitivity to Dec-16 FY16E Core EPS FY16E FY17E 5% chg in residential ASP 4% 2% JPMe old 3.30 3.75 1% chg in WACC 2% n/a JPMe new 3.05 3.48 % chg -8% -7% Consensus 3.29 3.80 Source: Bloomberg, Company data and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Company data and J.P. Morgan estimates. Comparative metrics CMP Mkt Cap P/E NAV P/BV YTD LC US$mn FY16E FY17E Discount FY16E FY17E Stock perf. Evergrande Real Estate 5.75 10,142 21.7 30.6 -22% 1.2 1.1 -16% COLI 26.85 34,134 8.6 7.5 -11% 1.2 1.1 -1% China Resources Land 21.85 19,524 10.1 7.9 -45% 1.2 1.0 -3% China Vanke - H shares 20.60 39,617 8.1 6.0 NA 1.8 1.5 -10% China Jinmao 2.48 3,412 6.6 6.2 -58% 0.6 0.6 -6% Sino-Ocean Land 3.68 3,565 7.0 5.2 -71% 0.5 0.5 -26% Shui On Land 2.19 2,266 13.9 9.2 -51% 0.4 0.4 3% Shimao Properties 11.16 4,939 5.5 5.1 -31% 0.5 0.5 -19% Guangzhou R&F 12.70 5,276 5.4 5.4 57% 0.8 0.7 33% Agile Property 4.96 2,505 8.1 7.8 -52% 0.4 0.4 15% KWG Property 5.42 2,134 3.8 3.3 -49% 0.6 0.5 -6% Longfor Properties 12.62 9,496 7.6 6.3 -46% 1.0 0.9 9% Country Garden 3.83 10,967 7.9 4.6 -19% 1.0 0.9 20% Source: Bloomberg, Company data and J.P.
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