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Agile Property (3383 HK) Neutral (Maintained) Property - Real Estate Target Price: HKD6.30 Market Cap: USD3,051M Price: HKD6.04

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Agile Property (3383 HK) Neutral (Maintained) Property - Real Estate Target Price: HKD6.30 Market Cap: USD3,051M Price: HKD6.04 Company Update, 5 June 2015 Agile Property (3383 HK) Neutral (Maintained) Property - Real Estate Target Price: HKD6.30 Market Cap: USD3,051m Price: HKD6.04 Macro Risks 2 Key Takeaways From Zhongshan Visit Growth . 2 0 Value . 01 0 . 02 0 We recently visited Agile’s four major projects in Zhongshan (tier-3 . Agile Property Holdings (3383 HK) 0 Price Close Relative to Hang Seng Index (RHS) city). Reiterate NEUTRAL with a higher HKD6.30 TP (4% upside), 0 7.4 110 following the sector valuation upgrade. Key takeaways: i) a preliminary 0 6.9 104 recovery in sales volume, driven by end-users and loosening mortgage approvals, and ii) ASP tends to stabilise, but upside is limited. We 6.4 98 remain concerned on Agile’s low-tier cities exposure (75% of its 5.9 91 landbank) and profit margin erosion. 5.4 85 Zhongshan the home base. Agile Property (Agile) was founded in 4.9 79 Zhongshan in 1992. It had been headquartered in the city since its establishment, until the headquarters was moved to Guangzhou in 2012. 4.4 73 Zhongshan is the highest contributing city, generating 13.7% and 18.4% 3.9 66 of landbank and contracted sales revenue, respectively, as of end-FY14. In turn, Agile is the market leader in Zhongshan, given that it achieved 3.4 60 250 the highest sales revenue among its peers in 2014. 200 150 Desirable sell-through, but likely an isolated case for Zhongshan. Benefitting from its brand reputation and track record in Zhongshan, 100 Agile’s projects are supported by end-user demand and loosening 50 mortgage approvals from banks. The affordable pricing also helps to Volm boost sales. As a result, most of the company’s projects achieve high 15 14 15 14 14 14 - - - - - - sell-through rates (80-90% of volume launched is sold). However, it Apr Oct Jun Feb Dec Aug remains to be seen if Agile is able to replicate its popularity in other low- Source: Bloomberg tier cities, especially outside the Guangdong province. Avg Turnover (HKD/USD) 107m/13.9m Limited property price upside due to inventory pressure. Price cuts Cons. Upside (%) -6.0 were common in 2014 amid the property market downturn. Riding on a sales volume recovery this year, Agile is able to restore the ASP to Upside (%) 4.3 levels before the price cuts. However, similar to other low-tier cities, the 52-wk Price low/high (HKD) 3.80 - 6.92 inventory clearance pressure prevents further ASP upside in the near Free float (%) 37 term. We expect stable property prices going forward. Share outstanding (m) 3,917 Key risks to our forecasts include: i) slower-than-expected contracted Shareholders (%) sales and sales booking; ii) larger-than-expected price cut for sales Chan family 63.0 booking; and iii) higher-than-expected land appreciation tax (LAT). Maintain NEUTRAL with higher TP of HKD6.30. We maintain our end- FY15F ENAV at HKD14.10/share. Following the sector valuation upgrade, we narrow our NAV discount to 55% (from 65%) for our TP, Share Performance (%) maintaining at about -1SD of its 5-year mean. We raise our TP to YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m HKD6.30 (from HKD4.90). Absolute 37.0 (12.7) 33.3 37.3 1.3 Relative 19.8 (11.0) 20.3 21.3 (18.2) Forecasts and Valuations Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Dec-17F Total turnover (CNYm) 35,436 38,318 43,370 47,992 54,110 Shariah compliant Reported net profit (CNYm) 4,827 4,287 4,209 4,501 5,164 Recurring net profit (CNYm) 4,400 3,929 4,209 4,501 5,164 Recurring net profit growth (%) (5.1) (10.7) 7.1 6.9 14.7 Toni Ho, CFA +852 2103 5888 Recurring EPS (CNY) 1.28 1.12 1.07 1.15 1.32 [email protected] DPS (CNY) 0.38 0.29 0.26 0.28 0.28 Recurring P/E (x) 3.78 4.31 4.49 4.20 3.66 P/B (x) 0.57 0.49 0.51 0.47 0.42 Dividend Yield (%) 7.8 6.1 5.4 5.7 5.8 Return on average equity (%) 17.6 13.6 11.9 11.6 12.1 Return on average assets (%) 4.7 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.5 Net debt to equity (%) 97.6 96.6 100.9 96.8 93.8 Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) (2.4) 0.8 (6.5) See important disclosures at the end of this report Source: Company data, RHB Powered by EFATM Platform 1 Agile Property (3383 HK) 5 June 2015 Zhongshan Property Market In Charts Figure 1: Contracted ASP Figure 2: MoM change of contracted ASP (CNY/sqm) 50% Title: Title: 7,000 Source: Source: 40% 6,500 Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report 30% 6,000 20% 5,500 10% 5,000 0% 4,500 -10% 4,000 -20% Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Source: RHB Source: RHB Figure 3: Monthly contracted sales revenue (YoY change) Figure 4: Monthly contracted sales volume (YoY change) 200% 200% Title: Title: Source: Source: 150% 150% Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report 100% 100% 50% 50% 0% 0% -50% -50% Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Source: RHB Source: RHB Figure 5: Yearly sales and completed unsold volume Figure 6: Completed unsold volume as a % to sales volume (m sqm) 9.0 60% Title: Title: Source: Source: 8.0 54.4% 54.7% 55% 7.0 Please fill in the values above to have them52.3% entered in your report Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report 6.0 50% 47.3% 5.0 4.0 45% 45.2% 3.0 41.6% 2.0 40% 1.0 39.1% 35% 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 32.5% 30% Contracted sales volume Completed unsold volume 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: RHB Source: RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Agile Property (3383 HK) 5 June 2015 Projects At a Glance Figure 7: Details of the projects visited in Zhongshan Project name Metro Agile Zhongshan New Legend Zhongshan Agile Cambridgeshire Agile Gentlefolk Zhongshan Zhongshan 中山雅居樂新城 中山凱茵又一城 中山雅居樂劍橋郡 中山雅居樂御濱名門 Stake (%) 100% 100% 100% 100% Site area (sq m) 1,476,285 509,368 375,357 71,462 Total GFA (sq m) 3,519,253 769,751 1,444,668 142,924 Land bank (sq m, as of end-FY14) 2,141,765 568,574 1,274,585 142,924 Land bank breakdown: - Completed 47,036 55,786 15,324 0 - Under development 622,044 217,214 367,747 142,924 - Held for future development 1,472,685 295,574 891,514 0 Average land cost (CNY/sq m) 194 1,296 601 2,250 Current ASP (CNY/sq m) 5,200 - 6,300 (residential) 5,000 – 5,800 6,200 - 6,500 6,800 - 8,500 (residential) Year of first launch 7,000Early - 15,000 1990s (retails) Dec 2012 Dec 2013 12,000 Dec– 23 ,2014000 (retails) FY14 contracted sales revenue (CNY) approx. 1,800m approx. 1,100m approx. 1,600m approx. 150m Preliminary FY15 sales target (CNYm) N/A 1,250 1,480 1,030 Year-to-date sales revenue (CNYm) N/A 500 600 300 Unit size 95 - 145 sq m 90 – 187 sq m 90 – 145 sq m 99 – 170 sq m (3 to 4 bedrooms; bareshell) (2 to 5 bedrooms; bareshell) (2 to 4 bedrooms; bareshell) (3 to 5 bedrooms; bareshell) 52 – 112 sq m (1 to 2 bedrooms; decorated) Location *Sanxiang Town (三鄉鎮); *Huoju Development District *Western District *Shiqi Distric (石歧區) *40 min drive away from (火炬开发区); (中山西區博愛一路與翠景南 *Adjacent to Shiqi Qijiang Zhuhai’s Gongbei Port *15 to 20min drive away from 路交匯處) River (石歧區歧江河), close to (拱北口岸) & Jiuzhou Port Zhongshan Port (中山港) & *Within the downtown area, downtown area and schools (九州港碼頭) Intercity Railway station close to commercial malls, (城際輕軌站); schools, hospitals *adjacent to exit of Shenzhen- Zhongshan Tunnel (深中通道出口) Remarks * Phase 15-17 are currently on * Villas are sold out, high-rise * Service apartments are * 5 min drive to city centre sale units are on sale currently on sale * Targeting upgraders, thus * Welcomed by buyers from * Welcomed by buyers from * Intend to hold the most of the buyers apply for HK and Macau, given its close Shenzhen, given its commercial property portion mortgages location to Zhuhai accessibility to Shenzhen for investment, given its through highway premium location Source: Company, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 Agile Property (3383 HK) 5 June 2015 Metro Agile Zhongshan (中山雅居樂新城) Figure 8: Project model Figure 9: Location map Source: RHB Source: RHB Figure 10: Interior decoration Figure 11: High-rise blocks under construction Source: RHB Source: RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 4 Agile Property (3383 HK) 5 June 2015 New Legend Zhongshan (中山凱茵又一城) Figure 12: Project model Figure 13: Location map Source: RHB Source: RHB Figure 14: High-rise blocks Figure 15: Landscape Source: RHB Source: RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 5 Agile Property (3383 HK) 5 June 2015 Agile Cambridgeshire Zhongshan (中山雅居樂劍橋郡) Figure 16: Project model Figure 17: Service apartments block Source: RHB Source: RHB Figure 18: Facilities – Outdoor swimming pool Figure 19: Facilities – Indoor rest area and swimming pool Source: RHB Source: RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 6 Agile Property (3383 HK) 5 June 2015 Agile Gentlefolk Zhongshan (中山雅居樂御濱名門) Figure 20: Project model Figure 21: Location map Source: RHB Source: RHB Figure 22: High-rise blocks under construction Figure 23: Scenery Source: RHB Source: RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 7 Agile Property (3383 HK) 5 June 2015 NAV, Valuation And Peer Comparison Figure 24: Breakdown of Agile's landbank by tier of cities Overseas Tier-4 Tier-1 1% Title: 6% 7% Source: Tier-2 17% Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report Tier-3 69% Source: RHB Figure 25: Agile's end-FY15F ENAV Details Total HKDm HKD/share % of Total Landbank and properties under development 95,484 24.4 172% Hotel properties 6,496 1.7 12% Investment properties
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