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China Property Weekly Digest (Issue No China / Hong Kong Industry Focus China Property Weekly Digest (Issue No. 302) Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 13 May 2020 Y-o-y growth back to positive territory HSI: 24,246 • MTD average weekly GFA sold in 29 cities we track grew 7% y-o-y • Average short-selling interest stood largely stable at 11% ANALYST Jason LAM +852 36684179 [email protected] • Overall southbound interest steady at 5.65% Danielle WANG CFA, +852 36684176 [email protected] • Our top picks: Shimao (813 HK), Yuzhou (1628 HK) and China Aoyuan (3883 HK) Ken HE CFA, +86 2138968221 [email protected] Weekly sales performance (May 4 – 10) New launches in 10 major cities and sell-through rate Inventory in key cities MTD vs Avg MTD vs same 30 k units Total units launched (LHS) 150% 100.0 w-o-w of May -19 period May-19 25 Sell-through rate (RHS) 80.0 Avg weekly GFA sold ↑ 1.4% ↓ 1.1% ↑ 7.0% 20 26w avg 100% 60.0 Inventory (no. of weeks) ↑ 3.7 15 40.0 20.0 10 50% 0.0 5 YTD vs same 0 0% Jul-13 Jul-18 Jan-11 Jan-16 Jun-11 Jun-16 Feb-13 Oct-14 Feb-18 Oct-19 Apr-12 Sep-12 Apr-17 Sep-17 Dec-13 Dec-18 Nov-11 Nov-16 Mar-15 Mar-20 Aug-15 May-14 period 2019 YTD vs 2019 May-19 7W17 2W18 1W19 YTD GFA sold ↓ 21.3% ↓ 35.0% 9W19 51W16 15W17 23W17 31W17 39W17 47W17 12W18 20W18 28W18 36W18 45W18 17W19 25W19 33W19 41W19 49W19 12W20 Inventory (no. of weeks) 26 weeks rolling avg Project launches in key Tier 1/2 cities Average short selling interest as % of trading volume Overall southbound shareholding in CCASS No, of project launches 30% No. of shares (bn) 20 9,000 20% 10 8,000 0 10% 7,000 6,000 0% Tianjin Beijing 5,000 Wuhan Nanjing Shanghai Chengdu Shenzhen Hangzhou Chongqing Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Guangzhou Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 May-17 May-18 19W20 18W20 May-19 Sector one month moving average Source: CREIS, Fang.com, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Thomson Reuters, DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBS HK”) sa-CS / AH Industry Focus China Property Weekly Digest YTD share price performances Average short-selling interests (May 4- 8) w-o-w % change of southbound shareholding SRE Hopson Dev COLI Sino-Ocean Sector avg: -16% Sector Avearge: 11% GZ R&F Yuexiu Property Longfor Evergrande Powerlong Hopson Ying Li Sunac China South City Yuexiu Glorious Sino-Ocean Land Evergrande BJ North Star China South City Greenland CIFI Vanke Logan Property CR Land BJ Cap Land Agile Greentown SOHO Road King Kaisa Group Sunac Minmetals Shui On Land BJ Cap Land 'H' Times China China SCE Soho China Road King SZI C Garden Times China Greentown Yuzhou Yuzhou Properties Shimao CR Land Yuexiu CIFI Holdings KWG Kaisa China South City Poly HK China SCE Small caps CR Land Kaisa Mid caps Shui On Land Lai Fung COGO Large caps Guangzhou R&F Shenzhen Inv COLI Agile HSI Index Poly (Hong Kong) Greenland HK Longfor China SCE Yanlord China Jinmao CIFI China Vanke 'H' COGO Shimao Property Greenland HK Greentown Powerlong China Jinmao Shenzhen Inv Powerlong KWG Property Sino-Ocean MSCI China COGO Zhong An Sunac China Longfor Road King GZ R&F CC Land BJ North Star Shimao Agile Property KWG China Overseas Poly HK SOHO Logan Hopson Evergrande Shui On Land China Aoyuan -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% China Jinmao Hldgs Vanke Country Garden Yuzhou 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Thomson Reuters, DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBS HK”) Page 2 Industry Focus China Property Weekly Digest Valuation comparison 3-mth daily Net Disc/ 12-May Mk t trading 12-m EPS gth PE PE Yield Yield ROE ROE Gearing P/Bk NA V (Prem) Price Cap v alue Recom target 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F F Y19A 20F to NA V Company Name Code HK$ US$bn US$m HK$ % % x x % % % % % x HK$ % Large cap China Overseas* 688 HK 25.40 35.9 64.9 BUY 29.50 10 12 6.9 6.2 4.1 4.9 12.0 12.2 32.7 0.8 39.0 34.9 CR Land* 1109 HK 30.75 28.3 68.8 BUY 35.00 11 15 8.2 7.1 4.3 4.9 13.0 13.4 36.2 1.0 44.5 30.9 China Vanke 'H'* 2202 HK 25.00 40.7 30.3 BUY 36.16 13 12 5.6 5.0 6.1 6.9 22.2 21.4 34.3 1.2 31.1 19.6 Country Garden* 2007 HK 10.04 28.3 38.8 BUY 13.65 9 9 4.5 4.1 6.7 7.3 26.8 24.4 46.3 1.1 18.2 44.9 Evergrande* 3333 HK 14.90 25.5 44.1 BUY 14.30 15 15 6.4 5.5 7.9 9.0 18.5 19.3 159.3 1.1 45.8 67.4 Longfor* 960 HK 35.60 27.5 38.9 BUY 33.00 26 21 9.7 8.0 4.7 5.6 20.6 22.1 51.0 1.9 38.0 6.4 Shimao Property* 813 HK 31.30 14.3 37.8 BUY 30.03 22 21 7.4 6.1 5.4 6.5 18.2 19.7 63.9 1.3 37.0 15.3 Sunac China 1918 HK 33.35 20.0 147.0 NR n.a. 12 19 4.5 3.8 4.8 6.0 26.4 25.6 179.1 1.2 n.a. n.a. A v erage 15 15 6.6 5.7 5.5 6.4 19.7 19.8 75.4 1.2 31.3 Mid cap Agile Property* 3383 HK 8.87 4.5 10.0 BUY 11.10 12 17 3.8 3.3 11.8 13.8 15.0 16.1 130.7 0.5 14.9 40.4 China Aoyuan* 3883 HK 8.96 3.1 12.6 BUY 14.42 57 25 3.4 2.7 10.3 12.9 37.7 37.0 74.9 1.1 n.a. n.a. China Jinmao Hldgs* 817 HK 5.50 8.4 16.4 HOLD 5.66 15 26 7.9 6.2 5.0 6.3 17.6 17.7 83.1 1.3 9.0 38.9 CIFI Holdings 884 HK 5.80 5.9 17.0 NR n.a. 27 21 5.0 4.2 7.1 8.6 23.7 24.3 78.9 1.1 n.a. n.a. Seazen 1030 HK 7.12 5.4 15.5 NR n.a. 6 16 4.6 4.0 6.7 7.9 26.7 24.0 38.5 1.2 n.a. n.a. Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 9.53 1.6 19.3 NR n.a. 9 15 2.7 2.3 15.0 17.0 15.1 15.1 198.9 0.4 n.a. n.a. KWG Property 1813 HK 11.58 4.7 12.8 NR n.a. (34) 22 5.2 4.3 8.2 10.1 19.2 19.2 75.4 0.9 n.a. n.a. Logan Property* 3380 HK 11.70 8.3 9.5 BUY 14.59 21 26 5.2 4.1 7.7 9.7 31.8 33.0 77.1 1.5 16.3 28.1 Shenzhen Inv 604 HK 2.44 2.8 1.9 NR n.a. (17) 6 6.2 5.8 7.2 7.1 7.6 8.4 24.7 0.5 n.a. n.a. Sino-Ocean Land 3377 HK 1.96 1.9 2.8 BUY 6.68 17 19 4.4 3.7 10.5 12.3 7.4 6.5 76.7 0.3 8.9 n.a. Times China* 1233 HK 12.70 3.2 11.9 BUY 19.05 15 21 3.5 2.9 9.0 10.9 30.0 29.4 67.2 0.9 24.2 47.5 Yuexiu Property* 123 HK 1.45 2.9 3.5 BUY 2.25 6 21 5.2 4.3 7.7 n.a. 9.5 n.a. 74.0 0.5 3.2 54.1 A v erage 11 20 4.8 4.0 8.9 10.6 20.1 21.0 83.3 0.8 41.8 ^ Denominated in SGD for price; ~ Simple average discount to NAV; Market cap weighted average NAV = 33%; # Exclude outliners ~~Gross Gearing; ^^ FY20: FY21; FY21: FY22 Source: Thomson Reuters, *DBS HK Page 3 Industry Focus China Property Weekly Digest Valuation comparison 3-mth daily Net Disc/ 12-May Mk t trading 12-m EPS gth PE PE Yield Yield ROE ROE Gearing P/Bk NA V (Prem) Price Cap v alue Recom target 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F F Y19A 20F to NA V Company Name Code HK$ US$bn US$m HK$ % % x x % % % % % x HK$ % Large cap Small cap BJ Cap Land 'H' 2868 HK 1.71 0.2 1.3 NR n.a.
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