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Agile Property Holdings (3383.HK) Above Expectations: Steady Growth

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Agile Property Holdings (3383.HK) Above Expectations: Steady Growth March 17, 2011 EARNINGS REVIEW Agile Property Holdings (3383.HK) Buy Equity Research Above expectations: Steady growth with attractive valuation; Buy What surprised us Investment Profile Agile reported FY2010 underlying profit of Rmb3.6bn (EPS: Rmb1.02), up Low High 92% yoy, and 18%/20% above our estimates/Bloomberg consensus. Key Growth Growth highlights: (1) Underlying net margin in 2010 came in strong at 17% (vs. Returns * Returns * Multiple Multiple 14% in 2009), on the back of strong ASP performance. We expect another 1 Volatility Volatility pp margin expansion in 2011, on the back of an expected over 10% Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th increase in booked ASP; (2) With unbooked presales of Rmb20bn as of Agile Property Holdings (3383.HK) March 15, we estimate 80% of our 2011E revenue have been locked in, in Asia Pacific Property Peer Group Average * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the line with peers; we forecast Rmb36.6bn contract sales in 2011E, with 21% investment profile measures please refer to achieved ytd, better than peers' about 15%; (3) Net gearing as of end-2010 the disclosure section of this document. remained healthy at 49.6% (vs. 39.5% a year ago), implying strong Key data Current financial cushion to weather current market tightening. We continue to Price (HK$) 10.06 12 month price target (HK$) 16.00 believe Agile can outperform its peers in 2011 on the back of its strong Market cap (HK$ mn / US$ mn) 35,225.5 / 4,518.2 execution, low land cost advantage, and low presale exposure to cities Foreign ownership (%) -- affected by home purchase restrictions (as announced by the 12/10 12/11E 12/12E 12/13E government), at about 40% vs. peers of about 70%. EPS (Rmb) New 1.02 1.25 1.49 1.60 EPS revision (%) 16.6 2.5 0.5 1.4 EPS growth (%) 97.2 22.3 19.3 7.0 What to do with the stock EPS (dil) (Rmb) New 1.02 1.25 1.49 1.60 P/E (X) 8.3 6.8 5.7 5.3 We reiterate our Buy rating and slightly raise our 2011E-2013E EPS 1%- P/B (X) 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 3%, 12%/14%/9% higher than Bloomberg consensus to reflect our more EV/EBITDA (X) 4.1 4.7 4.8 4.5 Dividend yield (%) 2.9 3.7 5.3 5.6 positive view on Agile’s margin performance. Thus, we slightly raise our ROE (%) 21.8 21.4 21.5 19.7 12-m target price by 1% to Rmb16 (from Rmb15.90), still based on a 30% discount to 2011E NAV. The stock is trading at a 57% discount to our end- Price performance chart 2011E NAV and 6.8X 2011E P/E, vs. H-share peers’ of 54% and 10.0X, 14 90 respectively. Key downside risks: worse-than-expected presales. 13 85 Agile FY2010 results summary 12 80 11 75 Rmb mn 2010A 2011E YoY% 2009A 2010A YoY% 10 70 Revenue 20,520 24,106 17% 13,331 20,520 54% 9 65 Underlying profit 3,577 4,374 22% 1,865 3,577 92% Underlying margin (%) 17.4% 18.1% 1 ppt 14.0% 17.4% 3 ppt 8 60 Underlying EPS (Rmb) 1.02 1.25 22% 0.53 1.02 92% 7 55 Advance from customers 12,334 23,011 87% 5,771 12,334 114% Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Net gearing (%) 49.6% 35.2% -14 ppt 39.5% 49.6% 10 ppt Agile Property Holdings (L) MSCI China (R) Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Asia Pacific Buy List Absolute (11.1) 4.8 (2.1) Rel. to MSCI China (8.8) 3.9 (5.2) Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 3/16/2011 close. Coverage View: Attractive Jason Sun The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with +86(10)6627-3187 [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should Yi Wang, CFA be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect +86(21)2401-8930 [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as Jacqueline Du only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC +86(10)6627-3147 [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited certification, see the end of the text. Other important disclosures follow the Reg AC certification, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research March 17, 2011 Agile Property Holdings (3383.HK) Agile Property Holdings: Summary Financials Profit model (Rmb mn) 12/10 12/11E 12/12E 12/13E Balance sheet (Rmb mn) 12/10 12/11E 12/12E 12/13E Total revenue 20,520.2 24,106.2 29,324.6 35,715.5 Cash & equivalents 6,481.7 10,045.3 8,673.3 8,286.6 Cost of goods sold (11,131.3) (13,041.8) (17,763.4) (22,957.3) Accounts receivable 13,052.5 15,402.0 18,482.3 27,723.5 SG&A (1,413.0) (1,711.5) (2,140.7) (2,678.7) Inventory 29,002.2 42,313.3 50,850.4 52,860.7 R&D -- -- -- -- Other current assets 4,303.3 4,618.9 5,080.7 6,096.9 Other operating profit/(expense) 2,704.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total current assets 52,839.7 72,379.4 83,086.7 94,967.7 EBITDA 10,680.1 9,460.1 9,566.1 10,268.1 Net PP&E 2,253.2 3,110.2 4,140.4 5,383.4 Depreciation & amortization 0.0 (107.2) (145.7) (188.5) Net intangibles 12.0 12.0 9.1 6.2 EBIT 10,680.1 9,352.9 9,420.4 10,079.6 Total investments 4,997.9 4,997.9 4,997.9 4,997.9 Interest income 84.7 70.0 70.0 70.0 Other long-term assets 9,775.4 9,775.4 9,775.4 9,775.4 Interest expense 269.2 (196.6) (228.6) (228.6) Total assets 69,878.3 90,275.0 102,009.7 115,130.7 Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Accounts payable 9,646.3 6,752.4 5,401.9 3,781.3 Pretax profits 11,034.1 9,226.3 9,261.8 9,921.0 Short-term loans 5,262.3 7,262.3 7,262.3 7,262.3 Income tax (4,615.5) (4,187.2) (3,748.2) (4,028.1) Other current liabilities 17,091.3 27,768.8 34,114.0 42,499.2 Minorities (442.9) (665.4) (294.0) (305.4) Total current liabilities 31,999.8 41,783.4 46,778.2 53,542.8 Long-term debt 15,495.8 17,495.8 17,495.8 17,495.8 Net income pre-preferred dividends 5,975.7 4,373.7 5,219.6 5,587.5 Other long-term liabilities 2,047.6 2,290.9 2,763.4 2,873.8 Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term liabilities 17,543.4 19,786.7 20,259.2 20,369.5 Net income (pre-exceptionals) 5,975.7 4,373.7 5,219.6 5,587.5 Total liabilities 49,543.2 61,570.2 67,037.4 73,912.3 Post-tax exceptionals (2,398.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net income 3,577.1 4,373.7 5,219.6 5,587.5 Preferred shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total common equity 18,681.1 22,204.7 26,330.9 30,352.5 EPS (basic, pre-except) (Rmb) 1.71 1.25 1.49 1.60 Minority interest 1,654.1 6,500.1 8,641.4 10,865.9 EPS (basic, post-except) (Rmb) 1.02 1.25 1.49 1.60 Total liabilities & equity 69,878.3 90,275.0 102,009.7 115,130.7 EPS (diluted, post-except) (Rmb) 1.02 1.25 1.49 1.60 BVPS (Rmb) 5.34 6.34 7.52 8.67 DPS (Rmb) 0.240.310.450.48RNAV (Rmb mn) -- 64,019.6 -- -- Dividend payout ratio (%) 23.8 25.0 30.0 30.0 RNAVPS (Rmb) -- 18.28 -- -- Free cash flow yield (%) (1.2) (14.1) (9.4) (0.7) Growth & margins (%) 12/10 12/11E 12/12E 12/13E Ratios 12/10 12/11E 12/12E 12/13E Sales growth 53.9 17.5 21.6 21.8 ROE (%) 21.8 21.4 21.5 19.7 EBITDA growth 187.5 (11.4) 1.1 7.3 ROA (%) 6.3 5.5 5.4 5.1 EBIT growth 191.3 (12.4) 0.7 7.0 ROACE (%) 21.4 13.2 11.9 11.1 Net income growth 91.8 22.3 19.3 7.0 Inventory days 631.2 998.0 957.2 824.5 EPS growth 97.2 22.3 19.3 7.0 Receivables days 203.9 215.4 210.9 236.1 Gross margin 45.8 45.9 39.4 35.7 Payable days 269.1 229.5 124.9 73.0 EBITDA margin 52.0 39.2 32.6 28.7 Net debt/equity (%) 70.2 51.3 46.0 40.0 EBIT margin 52.0 38.8 32.1 28.2 Interest cover - EBIT (X) NM 73.9 59.4 63.5 Cash flow statement (Rmb mn) 12/10 12/11E 12/12E 12/13E Valuation 12/10 12/11E 12/12E 12/13E Net income pre-preferred dividends 5,975.7 4,373.7 5,219.6 5,587.5 P/E basic (X) 8.3 6.8 5.7 5.3 D&A add-back 0.0 107.2 145.7 188.5 P/B (X) 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 Minorities interests add-back 442.9 665.4 294.0 305.4 EV/EBITDA (X) 4.1 4.7 4.8 4.5 Net (inc)/dec working capital (19,800.1) (18,554.4) (12,968.0) (12,872.0) Dividend yield (%) 2.9 3.7 5.3 5.6 Other operating cash flow 13,270.1 10,292.0 5,813.3 8,125.2 Cash flow from operations (111.4) (3,116.1) (1,495.3) 1,334.6 Underlying valuation 12/10 12/11E 12/12E 12/13E Capital expenditures (544.2) (964.2) (1,173.0) (1,428.6) Underlying profit (Rmb mn) 3,577.1 4,373.7 5,219.6 5,587.5 Acquisitions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Underlying EPS (Rmb) 1.02 1.25 1.49 1.60 Divestitures 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others 84.7 70.0 70.0 70.0 Underlying ROE (%) 21.8 21.4 21.5 19.7 Cash flow from investments (459.5) (894.2) (1,103.0) (1,358.6) Underlying ROA (%) 6.3 5.5 5.4 5.1 Underlying ROACE (%) 13.0 13.2 11.9 11.1 Dividends paid (common & pref) (559.5) (850.1) (1,093.4) (1,565.9) Underlying P/E (X) 8.3 6.8 5.7 5.3 Inc/(dec) in debt 8,677.8 4,000.0 0.0 0.0 Underlying dividend payout (%) 23.8 25.0 30.0 30.0 Common stock issuance (repurchase) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Underlying EPS growth (%) 94.7 22.3 19.3 7.0 Other financing cash flows (5,437.8) 4,424.0 2,319.7 1,203.2 Cash flow from financing 2,680.4 7,574.0 1,226.3 (362.6) Total cash flow 2,109.5 3,563.6 (1,372.0) (386.6) Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data.
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