China / Hong Kong Industry Focus China Property Sector
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
DBS Group Research . Equity 19 Apr 2021
Spotlight on future land supply
• Solid sales growth momentum sustained with strong HSI: 28,970 potential to ink another year of record-high sales
• Developers poised to meet their 2021 targets ANALYST
Jason LAM +852 3668 4179 [email protected] • Future land supply and new starts as keys to watch for Danielle WANG CFA, +852 3668 4176 [email protected] • Sector top picks: Vanke, COLI, CIFI and Logan Ken HE CFA, +86 21 3896 8221 [email protected] Solid performance in 1Q21; strong potential for another year of Ben Wong [email protected] record-high residential sales. Residential sales in Mar rose 63% y-o-y (or 44% vs Mar-19) on the back of a 38% (or 19% vs Mar- Recommendation & valuation 19) increment in residential GFA sold and 19% (or 21% vs Mar- 19) rise in residential ASP, marking another solid month of FY22F physical market performance. We believe the market is well- Target Price Price Rec Mkt Cap PE poised to post another record-high sales value this year – as it HK$ HK$ US$bn x will likely attain 2020’s level even if the market records a 12.5% y- o-y decline for the remaining nine months. China Overseas Developers well on track to achieve their 2021 targets. Presales 20.15 25.70 BUY 28.4 4.0 (688 HK) growth of 30 listed developers we track on a weighted-average China Vanke 'H' 28.25 45.56 BUY 49.9 5.3 basis remained strong at 47% y-o-y (or +33% vs Mar 2019) in (2202 HK) Mar (Feb-21: 144%), as compared to their c.10% weighted Logan Property 12.50 16.44 BUY 8.9 3.5 average presales target for 2021. This translates into a decent (3380 HK) weighted average lock-in ratio of c.21% in 3M21 (vs 13%/18% for CIFI Holdings* 7.09 n.a. NR 7.5 4.4 3M20/3M19). To achieve their full-year presales target, (884 HK) developers will only need to maintain a flattish 1% y-o-y growth for the rest of the year. Spotlight on land supply and new starts. Changchun served as * Consensus the first city to execute the concentrated land supply policy and Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBS HK”) launched a total of 53 land parcels last week. Feedback appears to be encouraging with less heat being felt in the bidding
process. That said, actual execution structure of other cities and the impact of the policy on land prices and developers’ pace of land acquisitions will have to be closely monitored. Meanwhile, growth in residential GFA new starts remained sluggish, with Mar-20 posting a mere 2.2% y-o-y growth or c.30% for 3M21. New start-to-sales ratio has accordingly stayed low at c.0.8x in Mar and for 3M21. Top picks: Vanke, COLI, CIFI and Logan. The sector is trading at 4.8x/4.2x FY21/FY22F PE, which we believe is attractive and should be well supported by the upcoming strong presales numbers over 2Q. We recommend staying with large-cap names that are 1) subject to less pressure to deleverage and may surprise on the upside in terms of land acquisitions; and 2) in possession of positive catalysts ahead that may stimulate share price performance. We have in this aspect picked Vanke (2202 HK) and COLI (688 HK). We also highlight CIFI (884 HK) and Logan (3380 HK) that we think are trading at undemanding valuations given their good growth prospects and fundamentals.
ed-TH / sa- CS / AH
Industry Focus
China Property Sector
3M21 presales performances
Targeted 3M21 yoy 3M21 3M20 Comp anies Stock Cod e growth growth lock- in lock- in Large cap COLI 688 HK 10% 50% 23% 17% CR Land 1109 HK 11% 74% 22% 14% Country Garden 2007 HK 10% 38% 22% 18% Evergrande 3333 HK 4% 4% 20% 20% Longfor 960 HK 15% 58% 19% 14% Sunac 1918 HK 11% 88% 18% 11% Shimao 813 HK 10% 82% 20% 12% Large cap average (weighted average) 9% 43% 21% 16% Large cap average (simple average) 10% 56% 21% 15%
Mid cap Agile 3383 HK 9% 153% 26% 11% Aoyuan 3883 HK 13% 110% 20% 11% China Jinmao Hldgs 817 HK 8% 141% 25% 11% CIFI 884 HK 15% 153% 21% 10% Seazen 1030 HK 4% 60% 19% 12% R&F 2777 HK 8% 83% 20% 12% Kaisa Group 1638 HK 22% 168% 24% 11% KWG 1813 HK 20% 66% 17% 13% Logan 3380 HK 20% 159% 28% 13% Sino-Ocean 3377 HK 14% 36% 14% 12% Yuexiu 123 HK 17% 174% 22% 10% Mid cap average (weighted average) 13% 111% 21% 11% Mid cap average (simple average) 14% 114% 21% 11%
Small cap Greentown 3900 HK 9% 216% 23% 8% CCRE 832 HK 17% 0% 13% 16% SCE 1966 HK 18% 101% 22% 13% COGO* 81 HK 8% 90% 22% 13% Zhongliang 2772 HK 7% 157% 27% 11% Greenland HK 337 HK 10% 73% 11% 7% Zhenro 6158 HK 6% 123% 27% 13% Poly HK 119 HK 19% 94% 17% 10% Powerlong 1238 HK 29% 207% 23% 10% Yuzhou 1628 HK 5% 113% 20% 10% Yanlord YLLG SP -11% 93% 19% 9%
Small cap average (weighted average) 10% 126% 22% 11% Small cap average (simple average) 11% 115% 20% 11%
Overall (weighted average)# 10% 73% 21% 13% Overall (simple average)# 12% 101% 21% 12% s
Source: Companies, DBS HK
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
Developers’ presales lock-in ratio
RMB mn 900,000 Average=21% 30% 27% 27% 28% 26% 24% 800,000 23% 25% 23% 25% 22% 23% 23%22% 25% 700,000 22% 22% 20% 19% 20% 600,000 18% 20% 20% 20% 22% 17% 20% 17% 500,000 19% 21% 17% 15% 400,000 14% 13% 300,000 11% 10% 200,000 5% 100,000 0 0%
Pre-sales target (LHS) 3M Pre-sales (LHS) Pre-sales lock-in ratio (RHS)
Source: Companies, DBS HK
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
Developers’ monthly average presales growth
RMB Mn 3M21 3M20 2020 3M2021 3M2021 vs vs 2020 3M2020 Developers with monthly sales above Rmb10bn Evergrande 64,800 62,080 60,271 4% 8% Vanke 62,840 54,940 58,679 14% 7% Country Garden 52,690 47,040 47,555 12% 11% Sunac 47,860 30,920 47,938 55% 0% Poly CN 49,205 27,370 41,904 80% 17% COLI 38,832 26,774 30,060 45% 29% Shimao 30,502 20,324 25,026 50% 22% CR Land 26,053 22,410 23,753 16% 10% Longfor 24,940 21,050 22,551 18% 11% Seazen 20,554 14,258 20,914 44% -2% China Jinmao 22,500 13,045 19,258 72% 17% CIFI 26,000 10,100 19,250 157% 35% Greentown 20,500 10,400 17,892 97% 15% Zhenro 15,393 7,700 11,825 100% 30% Logan 12,900 7,120 10,058 81% 28% Agile 13,000 7,650 11,516 70% 13% R&F 12,900 7,120 10,058 81% 28% Aoyuan 11,990 7,280 11,084 65% 8% China SCE 10,834 6,022 8,461 80% 28% Kaisa 13,390 4,800 8,908 179% 50% Yuexiu Property 11,415 4,843 7,980 136% 43% KWG 10,306 6,168 8,634 67% 19% Sino-Ocean 11,020 9,000 10,920 22% 1% Average 26,540 18,627 23,239 42% 14% Developers with monthly sales Rmb7bn - Rmb10bn Powerlong 9,513 3,196 6,796 198% 40% Central China 8,425 6,562 5,695 28% 48% Yuzhou 8,561 5,717 8,747 50% -2% BCL 8,590 2,400 5,905 258% 45% COGO 7,130 4,214 5,392 69% 32% Average 8,444 4,418 6,507 91% 30% Developers with monthly sales below Rmb7bn Yanlord 5,292 3,461 6,538 53% -19% Poly HK 2,000 2,100 4,342 -5% -54% Fantasia 4,509 2,103 4,101 114% 10% Average 3,789 2,123 4,993 78% -24% Sector average 38,773 25,167 34,739 54% 12%
Source: Companies, DBS HK
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
Developers’ y-o-y sales growth
Source: Companies, DBS HK
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
Developers’ ASP growth
RMB/sm Recorded ASP Drop Recorded ASP Increase 60,000 120% 100% 40,000 80% 60% 20,000 40% 13% 18%20% 8% 8% 10% 5% 7% 8% 20% 2% 4% 26% 0 17% 0% 9% 10%11% 2% -4% -3%-3% -1% 0% 1% 1% -20% -10%-9% -9% -6% -5% -18% (20,000) -40% -60% (40,000) -80% -100%
(60,000) -120%
CIFI
R&F
Agile
COLI
Kaisa
Vanke
Sunac
COGO
Seazen
Zhenro
Yuzhou
Aoyuan
Shimao
Poly HK Poly
Poly CN Poly
Longfor
CR Land CR
Fantasia
Gemdale
China SCE China
Powerlong
Evergrande
Sino-Ocean
China Jinmao China
Central China Central
Greenland HK Greenland
Yuexiu Property Yuexiu
Country Garden Country
Beijing Capital Land Capital Beijing Shenzhen Investment Shenzhen
3M2021 ASP 2020 ASP Change
Source: Companies, DBS HK
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
Monthly new start GFA (Residential) Monthly RE investments (Residential)
'000 sm Rmb m 200,000 80% 1,400,000 50% 180,000 1,200,000 40% 60% 160,000 1,000,000 30% 140,000 40% 800,000 20% 120,000 20% 100,000 600,000 10% 80,000 0% 400,000 0% 60,000 -20% 200,000 -10% 40,000 -40% 0 -20% 20,000
0 -60%
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 RE investments (Residential) (LHS) GFA new start (Residential) (LHS) y-o-y % (RHS) y-o-y % (RHS)
Residential GFA sold Residential ASP
'000 sm Rmb/sm 250,000 120% 12,000 25% 100% 10,000 20% 200,000 80% 60% 8,000 15% 150,000 40% 6,000 10% 20% 100,000 4,000 5% 0% 2,000 0% 50,000 -20% -40% 0 -5%
0 -60%
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20 Mar-21 Residential ASP (LHS) y-o-y % (RHS) Residential GFA sold (LHS) y-o-y % (RHS)
Source: NBS, DBS HK
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
YTD new start GFA and GFA sold (Residential) China residential inventory – completed but unsold
Source: NBS, DBS HK
ASP change in 70 cities
Source: NBS, DBS HK
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
HK listed China property stocks’ PE discount to A-share
Source: Bloomberg Financial L.P., DBS HK
Large cap HK listed China property stocks’ PE discount to A-share
Source: Bloomberg Financial L.P., DBS HK
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
PE comparison cross sector
Source: Bloomberg Financial L.P., DBS HK Note: Only include stocks under DBS coverage
PB comparison cross sector
Source: Bloomberg Financial L.P., DBS HK Note: Only include stocks under DBS coverage
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
Dividend yield comparison cross sector
Source: Bloomberg Financial L.P., DBS HK Note: Only include stocks under DBS coverage
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
Valuation comparison
3- mth d aily Net Disc/ 16- Ap r Mkt trad ing 12- m EPS gth PE PE Yield Yield ROE ROE Gearing P/Bk NAV (Prem) Price Cap value R ecom target 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 1H20A 21F to NAV Company Name Cod e HK$ US$b n US$m HK$ % % x x % % % % % x HK$ % Large cap China Overseas* 688 HK 20.15 28.4 92.3 BUY 25.70 13 12 4.5 4.0 6.6 7.4 12.1 12.4 31.6 0.6 38.8 48.0 CR Land* 1109 HK 37.60 34.5 70.0 BUY 49.60 14 10 8.2 7.5 4.5 5.0 12.3 12.3 45.9 1.0 68.2 44.9 China Vanke 'H'* 2202 HK 28.25 49.9 39.9 BUY 45.56 10 12 5.9 5.3 5.0 5.7 19.4 19.0 27.6 1.1 41.1 31.2 Country Garden* 2007 HK 9.70 27.5 42.0 BUY 12.45 7 12 5.1 4.5 5.6 6.3 18.8 18.5 58.1 0.9 18.2 46.8 Evergrande* 3333 HK 14.04 23.9 34.0 BUY 22.94 25 2 5.3 5.2 9.5 9.7 17.8 16.7 199.3 0.9 33.9 58.6 Longfor* 960 HK 51.80 40.4 54.0 BUY 57.65 16 13 11.6 10.3 3.9 4.4 19.7 19.9 51.4 2.2 39.0 (32.8) Shimao Group* 813 HK 23.50 10.7 23.4 BUY 36.07 16 10 4.8 4.4 8.8 9.7 15.5 15.6 60.7 0.7 48.9 52.0 Sunac China* 1918 HK 31.05 18.6 81.8 BUY 46.50 5 10 3.8 3.4 5.9 6.4 23.0 21.3 150.5 0.8 52.9 41.3 Average 13 10 6.2 5.6 6.2 6.8 17.3 17.0 78.1 1.0 36.2 Mid cap Agile Property* 3383 HK 12.30 6.2 7.1 BUY 18.14 19 8 4.0 3.7 9.9 10.7 14.7 14.6 114.1 0.6 12.2 (1.2) China Aoyuan* 3883 HK 8.23 2.9 10.0 BUY 10.15 19 20 3.5 2.9 10.1 12.1 26.8 27.0 79.8 0.9 n.a. n.a. China Jinmao Hldgs* 817 HK 3.03 4.9 16.7 HOLD 3.00 72 25 4.6 3.7 9.5 11.1 14.2 13.9 76.6 0.5 9.0 66.3 CIFI Holdings 884 HK 7.09 7.5 14.1 NR n.a. 16 17 5.1 4.4 6.8 8.0 21.9 21.2 72.4 1.0 n.a. n.a. Seazen 1030 HK 9.55 7.3 16.3 NR n.a. (4) 12 5.1 4.5 5.9 6.6 24.3 22.7 55.1 1.1 n.a. n.a. Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 10.00 4.8 8.6 NR n.a. 1 12 3.3 2.9 13.0 14.2 11.4 10.4 176.7 0.3 n.a. n.a. KWG Property 1813 HK 13.16 5.4 10.5 NR n.a. 16 19 4.5 3.8 9.9 11.7 18.3 19.5 59.2 0.7 n.a. n.a. Logan Property* 3380 HK 12.50 8.9 8.1 BUY 16.44 21 15 4.0 3.5 10.1 11.5 32.9 31.1 76.3 1.2 33.7 62.9 Shenzhen Inv 604 HK 2.94 3.4 2.1 NR n.a. 18 10 5.9 5.4 7.0 7.4 8.4 8.9 28.3 0.5 n.a. n.a. Sino-Ocean Land 3377 HK 1.74 1.7 2.4 NR n.a. (9) 8 4.3 3.9 10.5 11.8 5.4 5.5 65.0 0.2 n.a. n.a. Yuexiu Property* 123 HK 1.83 3.6 4.8 BUY 2.32 17 14 5.1 4.5 7.9 8.9 10.4 n.a. 71.2 0.5 3.5 47.0 Average 16 14 4.4 3.9 9.1 10.3 17.8 18.0 79.1 0.7 43.5 Small cap BJ Cap Land 'H' 2868 HK 0.98 0.1 0.9 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 279.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. Central China* 832 HK 3.95 1.5 2.0 BUY 4.79 13 15 4.7 4.1 7.4 8.6 16.6 16.3 35.5 0.7 8.4 53.1 China Merchants Land 978 HK 1.15 0.7 0.3 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 10.4 n.a. 41.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. China SCE 1966 HK 3.58 1.9 3.6 NR n.a. 7 22 3.1 2.6 9.9 12.0 18.2 18.8 68.3 0.5 n.a. n.a. China South City^^ 1668 HK 0.87 0.9 2.6 NR n.a. 12 19 3.0 2.5 5.4 5.4 6.6 6.9 67.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. COGO* 81 HK 5.02 2.2 4.0 BUY 6.91 17 14 3.2 2.8 7.3 8.4 18.4 18.1 43.7 0.5 12.3 59.3 Gemdale Props 535 HK 1.18 2.5 2.5 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 27.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. Greenland 337 HK 2.75 1.0 0.5 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 44.8 0.9 n.a. n.a. Greentown 3900 HK 9.68 3.1 8.4 NR n.a. 5 22 7.4 6.1 3.8 4.6 7.2 8.0 139.1 0.5 n.a. n.a. Hopson Dev 754 HK 26.70 7.5 6.8 NR n.a. (71) 5 15.1 14.3 2.0 2.1 n.a. n.a. 91.9 1.1 n.a. n.a. Joy City 207 HK 0.49 0.9 0.9 NR n.a. (3) 0 6.2 6.2 6.3 n.a. 2.6 n.a. 64.3 0.2 n.a. n.a. Kaisa Group 1638 HK 3.78 3.4 8.4 NR n.a. 10 16 3.3 2.9 6.8 8.7 17.1 16.7 130.4 0.4 n.a. n.a. LVGEM* 95 HK 2.25 1.5 1.4 BUY 2.96 193 26 11.2 8.9 2.2 2.9 5.8 6.7 147.7 0.6 13.2 82.9 Minmetals Land 230 HK 0.88 0.4 0.1 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 148.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. Modern Land (China) 1107 HK 0.85 0.3 0.1 NR n.a. (5) 29 2.8 2.2 n.a. n.a. 13.4 12.1 107.3 0.2 n.a. n.a. Poly (Hong Kong) 119 HK 2.25 1.1 3.5 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 115.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. Powerlong 1238 HK 8.41 4.5 6.8 NR n.a. (17) 22 5.8 4.7 6.8 8.3 15.6 17.8 83.5 1.4 n.a. n.a. Road King 1098 HK 10.32 1.0 0.7 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 119.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. Ronshine China 3301 HK 5.47 1.2 1.6 NR n.a. (10) 24 3.8 3.1 8.5 10.5 11.5 9.3 91.2 0.4 n.a. n.a. Shui On Land* 272 HK 1.30 1.3 1.5 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 73.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. Soho China 410 HK 2.36 1.6 3.0 NR n.a. (17) 5 23.0 22.0 n.a. n.a. 1.3 1.5 41.0 0.3 n.a. n.a. Yanlord Land*^ YLLG SP 1.27 1.9 2.7 HOLD 1.25 87 32 4.6 3.5 5.5 5.7 8.1 9.9 88.2 0.4 4.6 72.3 Yuzhou Properties* 1628 HK 2.26 1.7 4.6 SELL 1.33 200 9 5.2 4.8 16.1 16.1 8.3 8.9 74.5 0.4 7.8 71.0 Zhenro Properties 6158 HK 5.32 3.0 4.8 NR n.a. 17 22 6.6 5.4 3.3 4.3 14.0 15.6 79.1 0.9 n.a. n.a. Zhong An 672 HK 0.400 0.3 0.3 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 64.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. Zhongliang Holdings 2772 HK 5.48 2.5 2.5 NR n.a. 23 15 3.8 3.3 10.5 11.8 8.3 8.9 69.9 1.2 n.a. n.a. Average# 28 20 4.4 3.7 7.6 8.7 12.4 12.9 91.8 0.6 63.9 Average (Overall)# 20 16 4.8 4.2 7.8 8.8 15.7 15.9 85.3 0.8 44.9~
^ Denominated in SGD for price ~ Simple average discount to NAV; Market cap weighted average NAV = 33% # Exclude outliners ~~Gross Gearing ^^ FY21: FY22; FY22: FY23 Source: Thomson Reuters, *DBS HK
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
PE valuations, 2011 to 2020 trough (based on earnings forecasts)
16- Ap r Mkt 21F 22F Price Cap PE PE Trough Trough Trough Trough Trough Trough Trough Trough Trough Trough Company Name Cod e HK$ US$b x x 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Large cap China Overseas* 688 HK 20.15 28.4 4.5 4.0 6.4 7.0 7.7 6.0 6.6 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.8 4.0 CR Land* 1109 HK 37.60 34.5 8.2 7.5 7.2 10.1 11.9 7.1 8.2 7.1 6.2 6.7 6.7 6.7 China Vanke 'H'* 2202 HK 28.25 49.9 5.9 5.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.3 6.8 6.5 7.3 6.1 6.0 5.3 Country Garden* 2007 HK 9.70 27.5 5.1 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.2 3.8 4.0 4.7 6.3 4.3 3.7 3.4 Evergrande* 3333 HK 14.04 23.9 5.3 5.2 2.9 3.3 4.2 3.4 4.3 6.4 7.7 4.8 4.1 2.8 Longfor* 960 HK 51.80 40.4 11.6 10.3 6.3 5.6 7.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 6.7 6.9 8.5 Shimao Group* 813 HK 23.50 10.7 4.8 4.4 3.6 3.9 6.4 4.3 3.3 3.2 4.6 4.9 4.6 4.9 Sunac China* 1918 HK 31.05 18.6 3.8 3.4 1.4 1.5 3.1 2.2 2.7 3.1 7.8 5.6 4.2 3.5 Average 6.2 5.6 4.7 5.3 6.7 4.8 5.2 5.3 6.4 5.6 5.2 4.9 Mid cap Agile Property* 3383 HK 12.30 6.2 4.0 3.7 2.7 3.8 4.0 2.4 3.0 3.3 4.6 3.8 3.3 3.4 China Aoyuan* 3883 HK 8.23 2.9 3.5 2.9 5.1 5.1 5.1 2.2 3.2 2.8 3.6 4.0 3.3 2.6 China Jinmao Hldgs* 817 HK 3.03 4.9 4.6 3.7 6.0 5.9 7.3 4.8 5.1 5.1 5.7 5.8 5.1 4.8 CIFI Holdings 884 HK 7.09 7.5 5.1 4.4 n.a. n.a. 3.8 3.2 2.7 2.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 Seazen 1030 HK 9.55 7.3 5.1 4.5 n.a. n.a. 2.7 2.1 2.1 3.5 5.4 4.0 3.8 3.6 Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 10.00 4.8 3.3 2.9 3.2 3.2 4.7 3.8 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.2 2.5 2.0 KWG Property 1813 HK 13.16 5.4 4.5 3.8 2.5 2.3 3.1 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.5 3.3 Logan Property* 3380 HK 12.50 8.9 4.0 3.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.8 4.8 3.9 Shenzhen Inv 604 HK 2.94 3.4 5.9 5.4 3.8 4.4 6.2 5.3 5.4 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.2 4.4 Sino-Ocean Land 3377 HK 1.74 1.7 4.3 3.9 4.1 5.4 6.7 6.0 5.9 5.1 5.6 3.8 3.7 3.3 Yuexiu Property* 123 HK 1.83 3.6 5.1 4.5 4.6 4.5 5.8 5.9 6.3 5.3 7.8 4.8 5.4 4.3 Average 4.4 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.9 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.6 4.1 3.9 3.5 Small Cap BJ Cap Land 'H' 2868 HK 0.98 0.1 n.a. n.a. 1.9 2.1 3.4 2.6 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.1 1.9 1.5 Central China* 832 HK 3.95 1.5 4.7 4.1 2.8 2.8 3.5 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.7 4.3 3.6 3.3 China Merchants Land 978 HK 1.15 0.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 12.0 4.5 5.5 3.9 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 China SCE 1966 HK 3.58 1.9 3.1 2.6 3.7 2.9 2.4 5.6 4.5 3.7 4.7 3.2 2.7 3.3 China South City^^ 1668 HK 0.87 0.9 3.0 2.5 4.3 4.5 4.3 5.1 5.7 5.8 6.9 4.6 4.8 1.5 COGO* 81 HK 5.02 2.2 3.2 2.8 3.7 5.0 6.3 3.1 3.1 2.7 4.2 3.8 3.5 2.8 Gemdale Props 535 HK 1.18 2.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 10.9 14.1 3.8 5.5 4.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 Greenland 337 HK 2.75 1.0 n.a. n.a. 1.4 1.2 0.8 11.7 8.0 4.8 4.0 2.8 2.0 3.0 Greentown 3900 HK 9.68 3.1 7.4 6.1 2.0 1.5 3.3 2.3 3.1 3.4 5.5 4.0 3.6 4.6 Hopson Dev 754 HK 26.70 7.5 15.1 14.3 2.8 2.8 5.6 3.9 10.7 12.1 11.0 6.2 5.6 4.2 Joy City 207 HK 0.49 0.9 6.2 6.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 21.1 16.6 14.2 11.2 7.2 6.9 2.6 Kaisa Group 1638 HK 3.78 3.4 3.3 2.9 3.8 3.0 2.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.9 LVGEM* 95 HK 2.25 1.5 11.2 8.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 7.5 10.1 14.8 15.9 6.0 Minmetals Land 230 HK 0.88 0.4 n.a. n.a. 3.8 2.3 4.2 3.6 4.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 4.1 4.1 Modern Land (China) 1107 HK 0.85 0.3 2.8 2.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.3 2.4 2.0 2.5 3.4 3.4 2.1 Poly (Hong Kong) 119 HK 2.25 1.1 n.a. n.a. 4.2 4.9 5.2 3.9 5.7 13.0 17.6 3.3 2.7 3.2 Powerlong 1238 HK 8.41 4.5 5.8 4.7 1.5 1.6 3.6 2.8 3.2 2.7 3.1 2.3 2.1 4.3 Road King 1098 HK 10.32 1.0 n.a. n.a. 2.2 2.4 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 Ronshine China 3301 HK 5.47 1.2 3.8 3.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.7 2.9 2.1 Shui On Land* 272 HK 1.30 1.3 n.a. n.a. 5.6 6.5 9.1 10.6 5.8 6.4 5.6 4.5 3.9 17.0 Soho China 410 HK 2.36 1.6 23.0 22.0 10.1 5.0 6.9 7.7 10.2 16.7 40.8 29.7 22.0 19.9 Yanlord Land*^ YLLG SP 1.27 1.9 4.6 3.5 5.0 7.1 9.3 7.5 7.1 7.0 4.8 3.1 3.1 2.4 Yuzhou Properties* 1628 HK 2.26 1.7 5.2 4.8 2.7 3.6 3.6 2.4 2.1 3.3 3.6 2.7 2.7 2.5 Zhenro Properties 6158 HK 5.32 3.0 6.6 5.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 4.6 4.5 Zhong An 672 HK 0.40 0.3 n.a. n.a. 4.1 9.9 5.3 8.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.3 8.3 8.3 Zhongliang Holdings 2772 HK 5.48 2.5 3.8 3.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.3 3.0 Average# 4.4 3.7 2.9 3.3 4.9 5.8 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.0 3.6 Average (Overall)# 4.8 4.2 3.6 4.0 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.6 5.2 4.7 4.2 3.8 ^ Denominated in SGD for price # Exclude outliners ^^ FY21: FY22; FY22: FY23 Source: Thomson Reuters, *DBS HK
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
PE valuations, 2011 to 2020 peak (based on earnings forecasts)
16- Ap r Mkt 21F 22F Price Cap PE PE Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Company Name Cod e HK$ US$b x x 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Large cap China Overseas* 688 HK 20.15 28.4 4.5 4.0 11.9 12.2 11.8 8.8 9.7 8.7 8.9 8.3 7.5 7.5 CR Land* 1109 HK 37.60 34.5 8.2 7.5 15.2 17.6 17.0 12.3 12.8 10.9 9.9 9.6 10.2 10.2 China Vanke 'H'* 2202 HK 28.25 49.9 5.9 5.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.0 11.8 11.8 10.5 11.3 8.2 8.1 Country Garden* 2007 HK 9.70 27.5 5.1 4.5 11.0 8.7 9.5 7.7 6.9 8.4 15.2 13.6 5.9 5.8 Evergrande* 3333 HK 14.04 23.9 5.3 5.2 8.9 6.1 6.4 4.6 14.2 13.2 16.5 9.4 6.3 10.2 Longfor* 960 HK 51.80 40.4 11.6 10.3 14.2 11.9 11.5 7.5 8.7 8.2 11.3 10.3 11.8 13.4 Shimao Group* 813 HK 23.50 10.7 4.8 4.4 9.7 9.5 9.0 7.5 6.2 5.6 7.7 7.9 8.0 9.0 Sunac China* 1918 HK 31.05 18.6 3.8 3.4 3.5 5.5 5.5 5.1 6.3 12.4 46.7 19.2 7.1 7.0 Average 6.2 5.6 10.6 10.2 10.1 7.8 9.6 9.9 15.8 11.2 8.1 8.9
Mid cap Agile Property* 3383 HK 12.30 6.2 4.0 3.7 11.1 7.1 7.6 4.8 5.7 5.8 9.4 8.5 5.6 5.4 China Aoyuan* 3883 HK 8.23 2.9 3.5 2.9 10.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.6 4.3 8.0 6.6 7.2 7.2 China Jinmao Hldgs* 817 HK 3.03 4.9 4.6 3.7 16.6 10.2 10.1 8.4 8.4 8.2 11.5 10.3 9.8 9.8 CIFI Holdings 884 HK 7.09 7.5 5.1 4.4 n.a. n.a. 5.9 4.4 5.1 5.4 8.4 8.9 6.6 6.5 Seazen 1030 HK 9.55 7.3 5.1 4.5 n.a. n.a. 4.8 4.4 6.5 8.8 11.5 10.5 7.2 6.8 Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 10.00 4.8 3.3 2.9 8.0 7.4 8.1 5.2 4.8 6.0 7.2 6.3 3.9 3.4 KWG Property 1813 HK 13.16 5.4 4.5 3.8 8.1 5.4 5.4 4.3 5.1 3.9 5.9 6.1 5.0 5.6 Logan Property* 3380 HK 12.50 8.9 4.0 3.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.8 6.6 6.0 11.1 8.7 6.7 6.5 Shenzhen Inv 604 HK 2.94 3.4 5.9 5.4 9.0 8.6 11.8 8.0 10.3 10.1 9.1 10.3 8.9 7.5 Sino-Ocean Land 3377 HK 1.74 1.7 4.3 3.9 10.3 12.1 11.9 9.2 9.9 8.2 9.3 8.7 6.9 5.9 Yuexiu Property* 123 HK 1.83 3.6 5.1 4.5 11.1 9.3 9.5 8.1 11.1 10.6 10.5 8.2 7.9 7.3 Average 4.4 3.9 10.5 8.2 8.0 5.7 6.8 6.7 8.9 8.2 6.7 6.4
Small Cap BJ Cap Land 'H' 2868 HK 0.98 0.1 n.a. n.a. 5.9 4.7 5.2 3.6 6.3 5.9 7.4 6.1 5.2 2.3 Central China* 832 HK 3.95 1.5 4.7 4.1 5.6 6.3 6.3 4.1 4.4 3.9 8.5 8.6 7.3 6.8 China Merchants Land 978 HK 1.15 0.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 13.5 13.5 15.3 11.9 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 China SCE 1966 HK 3.58 1.9 3.1 2.6 5.5 3.8 6.6 5.6 5.6 7.6 7.4 5.7 5.4 5.3 China South City^^ 1668 HK 0.87 0.9 3.0 2.5 12.3 6.6 6.9 11.8 9.5 10.8 17.2 13.4 4.8 5.2 COGO* 81 HK 5.02 2.2 3.2 2.8 9.7 9.7 10.0 6.4 6.1 6.4 8.8 6.9 5.4 5.1 Gemdale Props 535 HK 1.18 2.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 21.9 57.7 50.0 10.6 10.0 7.5 4.7 4.7 Greenland 337 HK 2.75 1.0 n.a. n.a. 3.8 8.9 52.6 28.2 21.6 12.2 7.1 6.3 4.3 4.1 Greentown 3900 HK 9.68 3.1 7.4 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.6 4.5 6.1 7.8 10.8 12.4 7.3 12.1 Hopson Dev 754 HK 26.70 7.5 15.1 14.3 6.4 16.0 15.7 16.1 24.6 22.4 29.8 14.9 10.2 10.8 Joy City 207 HK 0.49 0.9 6.2 6.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 30.9 82.1 32.9 23.7 18.4 11.2 10.3 Kaisa Group 1638 HK 3.78 3.4 3.3 2.9 10.2 6.9 6.4 4.4 2.3 9.2 36.3 17.4 6.1 5.6 LVGEM* 95 HK 2.25 1.5 11.2 8.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 11.3 26.6 22.1 21.8 20.0 Minmetals Land 230 HK 0.88 0.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.1 6.9 5.9 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 4.9 Modern Land (China) 1107 HK 0.85 0.3 2.8 2.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.8 5.8 5.8 3.8 5.9 3.8 3.8 Poly (Hong Kong) 119 HK 2.25 1.1 n.a. n.a. 16.1 9.8 9.9 6.4 27.9 670.0 637.5 18.8 5.8 3.2 Powerlong 1238 HK 8.41 4.5 5.8 4.7 6.5 5.6 6.7 4.9 4.6 5.3 6.5 6.4 8.1 7.2 Road King 1098 HK 10.32 1.0 n.a. n.a. 7.0 7.6 7.6 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 Ronshine China 3301 HK 5.47 1.2 3.8 3.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.6 4.4 4.4 Shui On Land* 272 HK 1.30 1.3 n.a. n.a. 17.6 12.6 17.6 17.4 87.1 11.7 8.6 16.3 18.9 17.0 Soho China 410 HK 2.36 1.6 23.0 22.0 19.9 14.2 8.6 13.3 27.4 51.4 85.8 68.7 34.7 43.0 Yanlord Land*^ YLLG SP 1.27 1.9 4.6 3.5 10.5 15.0 14.7 11.2 12.7 9.8 7.9 5.0 4.4 4.1 Yuzhou Properties* 1628 HK 2.26 1.7 5.2 4.8 5.8 6.5 6.5 4.6 5.2 5.2 6.3 5.5 4.4 4.4 Zhenro Properties 6158 HK 5.32 3.0 6.6 5.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.5 9.8 7.1 Zhong An 672 HK 0.40 0.3 n.a. n.a. 12.3 14.9 10.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 Zhongliang Holdings 2772 HK 5.48 2.5 3.8 3.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.6 4.5 Average# 4.4 3.7 7.5 7.9 11.9 12.2 15.1 10.0 11.8 9.0 6.5 6.1 Average (Overall)# 4.8 4.2 9.1 8.5 10.3 9.2 11.3 9.0 11.7 9.2 6.9 6.8 ^ Denominated in SGD for price # Exclude outliners ^^ FY21: FY22; FY22: FY23 Source: Thomson Reuters, *DBS HK
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
PE valuations, 2011 to 2020 average (based on earnings forecasts)
16-Apr Mk t 21F 22F P rice Cap PE PE Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg Company Name Code HK$ US $bn x x 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 L arge cap China Overs eas * 688 HK 20.15 28.4 4.5 4.0 9.9 9.4 9.5 7.2 7.9 7.3 7.4 7.1 6.6 5.6 CR Land* 1109 HK 37.60 34.5 8.2 7.5 12.3 13.0 14.0 8.8 10.1 8.1 8.0 8.1 8.4 8.4 China Vanke 'H'* 2202 HK 28.25 49.9 5.9 5.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.4 8.9 8.6 8.6 7.9 7.1 6.0 Country Garden* 2007 HK 9.70 27.5 5.1 4.5 8.6 6.7 7.8 4.7 5.0 6.3 10.6 7.1 5.0 4.3 Evergrande* 3333 HK 14.04 23.9 5.3 5.2 6.3 4.9 4.9 4.1 8.6 9.9 10.8 6.5 5.0 6.1 Longfor* 960 HK 51.80 40.4 11.6 10.3 10.9 9.0 8.8 6.1 6.8 6.6 8.5 8.8 9.2 10.9 S himao Group* 813 HK 23.50 10.7 4.8 4.4 6.5 7.1 7.8 5.2 4.7 4.4 6.0 6.5 6.1 7.1 S unac China* 1918 HK 31.05 18.6 3.8 3.4 2.7 3.0 3.9 3.3 4.2 6.0 20.6 7.6 5.7 4.6 Ave rage 6.2 5.6 8.2 7.6 8.1 5.9 7.0 7.2 10.1 7.4 6.6 6.6
Mid cap Agile Property* 3383 HK 12.30 6.2 4.0 3.7 7.0 6.0 5.3 3.5 4.0 4.9 7.0 6.1 4.6 4.2 China Aoyuan* 3883 HK 8.23 2.9 3.5 2.9 7.2 5.1 5.1 3.0 3.4 3.7 5.1 5.4 5.5 3.6 China Jinmao Hldgs * 817 HK 3.03 4.9 4.6 3.7 11.8 8.6 8.3 5.8 6.6 6.5 8.1 7.7 7.4 7.0 CIFI Holdings 884 HK 7.09 7.5 5.1 4.4 n.a. n.a. 4.6 3.5 3.7 4.1 5.7 6.1 5.0 5.1 S eazen 1030 HK 9.55 7.3 5.1 4.5 n.a. n.a. 3.8 2.6 4.4 6.2 8.0 6.5 5.5 4.5 Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 10.00 4.8 3.3 2.9 5.6 5.5 6.1 4.2 4.0 4.6 5.2 4.5 3.2 2.8 KWG Property 1813 HK 13.16 5.4 4.5 3.8 5.2 4.2 4.1 3.3 3.6 3.2 4.0 4.4 3.6 4.5 Logan Property* 3380 HK 12.50 8.9 4.0 3.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.6 4.8 4.9 6.6 6.9 5.8 5.1 S henzhen Inv 604 HK 2.94 3.4 5.9 5.4 6.9 5.7 7.5 6.3 7.6 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.4 6.0 S ino-Ocean Land 3377 HK 1.74 1.7 4.3 3.9 7.2 8.1 8.7 6.9 7.7 6.5 7.3 6.0 5.4 4.4 Yuexiu Property* 123 HK 1.83 3.6 5.1 4.5 7.4 7.3 8.2 6.8 8.0 8.0 8.7 6.3 7.0 5.1 Ave rage 4.4 3.9 7.3 6.3 6.2 4.3 5.0 5.2 6.4 6.0 5.4 4.7
S m all Cap BJ Cap Land 'H' 2868 HK 0.98 0.1 n.a. n.a. 3.8 3.3 3.9 2.9 4.4 4.8 5.8 5.1 4.4 1.6 Central China* 832 HK 3.95 1.5 4.7 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.0 3.1 3.2 5.0 6.7 5.7 4.0 China Merchants Land 978 HK 1.15 0.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 12.8 6.8 9.7 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 China S CE 1966 HK 3.58 1.9 3.1 2.6 4.7 3.2 3.9 5.6 5.2 5.1 5.8 4.4 4.2 3.9 China S outh City^^ 1668 HK 0.87 0.9 3.0 2.5 7.3 6.3 5.8 7.5 7.2 8.6 10.5 8.9 4.8 3.7 Gemdale Props 535 HK 1.18 2.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 16.1 30.6 5.6 9.8 6.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 Greenland 337 HK 2.75 1.0 n.a. n.a. 2.6 4.5 13.6 16.5 13.3 6.1 5.1 4.3 3.4 3.2 Greentow n 3900 HK 9.68 3.1 7.4 6.1 4.1 3.6 4.7 3.3 4.3 5.5 8.5 8.0 4.9 7.4 Hops on Dev 754 HK 26.70 7.5 15.1 14.3 4.8 6.8 8.5 8.6 16.2 17.2 18.4 10.8 7.5 6.3 Joy City 207 HK 0.49 0.9 6.2 6.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 25.5 33.5 20.1 15.9 10.7 9.3 7.5 Kais a Group 1638 HK 3.78 3.4 3.3 2.9 7.2 3.8 4.1 3.2 2.1 2.9 13.4 6.1 4.7 3.9 LVGEM* 95 HK 2.25 1.5 11.2 8.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.6 16.6 17.2 18.6 10.0 Minmetals Land 230 HK 0.88 0.4 n.a. n.a. 11.6 4.2 5.0 4.5 4.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 6.9 4.4 Modern Land (China) 1107 HK 0.85 0.3 2.8 2.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.5 3.1 3.4 3.4 4.4 3.7 3.2 Pow erlong 1238 HK 8.41 4.5 5.8 4.7 4.4 3.5 4.9 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.9 4.0 4.6 5.3 Road King 1098 HK 10.32 1.0 n.a. n.a. 4.9 3.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 Rons hine China 3301 HK 5.47 1.2 3.8 3.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.1 3.7 3.1 S hui On Land* 272 HK 1.30 1.3 n.a. n.a. 11.3 9.1 13.2 12.2 30.1 8.4 7.0 10.3 14.2 17.0 S oho China 410 HK 2.36 1.6 23.0 22.0 14.8 5.8 8.0 11.7 22.5 35.1 64.7 40.5 28.1 28.2 Yanlord Land*^ YLLG S P 1.27 1.9 4.6 3.5 8.2 11.4 11.4 8.7 9.6 8.3 6.0 4.0 3.8 3.3 Yuzhou Properties * 1628 HK 2.26 1.7 5.2 4.8 4.4 4.9 4.3 2.8 3.7 4.3 4.9 4.2 3.5 3.3 Z henro Properties 6158 HK 5.32 3.0 6.6 5.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.5 6.0 6.1 Z hong An 672 HK 0.40 0.3 n.a. n.a. 6.0 11.0 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 Z hongliang Holdings 2772 HK 5.48 2.5 3.8 3.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.9 3.5 Ave rage # 4.4 3.7 5.5 5.1 7.2 8.1 7.7 7.2 8.4 7.0 5.8 4.9 Average (Overall)# 4.8 4.2 6.6 6.0 7.1 6.4 6.7 6.6 8.1 6.8 5.9 5.2 ^ Denominated in SGD for price # Exclude outliners ^^ FY21: FY22; FY22: FY23 Source: Thomson Reuters, *DBS HK
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
Share price performance
Price Performance 2007 1- wk 2- wk 1- mth 2- mth 3- mth 5- mth 6- mth YTD 1- yr 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 high % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Tier 1 players China Overseas 688 HK 1.4 (0.2) (3.6) 8.8 18.3 2.3 2.9 19.5 (21.4) 5.7 21.5 (24.4) 22.4 7.0 12.8 (44.4) 7.4 CR Land 1109 HK 2.7 1.1 (0.9) 18.1 20.5 7.4 5.5 17.5 19.9 6.4 14.2 (22.8) 31.9 30.9 28.9 (17.1) 82.5 China Vanke 'H' 2202 HK (0.7) (3.1) (14.7) (6.3) (3.4) 3.5 17.2 5.6 13.0 43.0 32.4 (22.7) 76.3 (14.7) 25.0 (19.5) 84.2 Country Garden 2007 HK (1.3) (3.4) 0.1 3.2 (2.5) (9.7) 0.8 (9.5) 1.4 (32.8) 2.6 36.5 243.3 (32.8) 31.0 (14.1) n.a. Evergrande 3333 HK (1.5) (2.0) (7.3) (16.4) (2.2) (17.1) (10.8) (5.8) 4.5 6.1 117.2 (29.2) 458.0 (13.0) (7.9) (30.7) n.a. Longfor Properties 960 HK 3.6 2.7 7.8 22.6 21.5 5.9 22.6 14.1 38.1 (7.8) 15.7 (14.9) 99.0 19.5 56.0 24.4 n.a. Shimao Group 813 HK 0.0 (2.5) (7.7) 3.3 1.7 (22.7) (22.4) (4.9) (21.8) (2.7) (20.5) (26.4) 67.7 22.9 44.5 (17.5) (18.4) Sunac China 1918 HK (3.4) (7.2) (9.2) 1.1 2.3 (1.9) 6.5 8.4 (6.6) 69.7 (24.0) 7.5 401.6 (21.2) 82.5 (38.5) n.a. Average 0.1 (1.8) (4.4) 4.3 7.0 (4.0) 2.8 5.6 3.4 10.9 19.9 (12.1) 175.0 (0.2) 34.1 (19.7) 38.9 Tier 2 players Agile Property 3383 HK (3.9) (4.7) 11.6 22.5 22.8 5.1 15.6 19.2 44.9 (46.9) (2.0) (8.6) 200.3 (22.3) 27.3 (11.9) (37.5) China Aoyuan 3883 HK 0.0 (0.4) 7.3 13.8 12.6 2.9 5.6 9.2 (8.9) (24.5) 32.5 9.2 141.0 15.9 155.5 (40.6) n.a. China Jinmao Hldgs 817 HK (1.9) (1.9) (8.5) (4.7) (15.8) (24.4) (27.0) (15.1) (41.7) (17.4) 19.4 (21.1) 64.6 2.3 72.4 (41.2) n.a. CIFI Holdings 884 HK (5.0) (5.5) (3.7) (0.1) 10.1 15.3 25.3 7.9 21.4 (6.1) 12.3 20.8 125.4 (11.7) 58.4 (0.3) n.a. Seazen 1030 HK (3.8) 1.8 0.3 27.3 55.8 44.5 46.9 48.1 35.3 (21.7) 86.1 18.7 208.2 9.4 76.9 (32.0) n.a. GZ R&F 2777 HK (1.4) (2.9) (6.4) 0.8 0.9 (2.9) 2.7 0.3 0.3 (16.3) 0.6 (1.8) 87.8 (32.8) 21.5 (30.7) (77.0) KWG 1813 HK (0.9) (2.2) 4.1 20.5 23.9 15.2 26.3 24.4 40.5 33.5 13.1 (17.8) 107.5 (24.1) 57.6 18.7 n.a. Logan Property 3380 HK (1.1) (4.6) 1.6 5.0 2.8 0.0 3.1 (1.6) (0.5) 10.0 9.1 11.4 175.8 21.4 33.3 (2.9) n.a. Shenzhen Inv 604 HK 4.3 6.9 8.1 9.3 8.9 19.0 22.0 10.5 23.0 (23.6) 62.8 (14.3) 4.2 (20.1) 20.5 (14.7) (62.1) Sino-Ocean 3377 HK 1.8 0.6 (1.7) 8.7 6.1 6.4 11.0 12.3 (12.6) (13.4) 12.7 (30.2) 55.3 (36.0) (9.3) (49.8) n.a. Yuexiu Property 123 HK 2.8 3.4 4.6 13.0 17.3 15.8 18.1 17.3 28.9 (16.8) (10.1) (20.9) 37.7 (1.4) 25.0 (13.3) (36.5) Average (0.7) (0.5) 0.8 10.0 12.0 7.7 12.6 11.1 8.3 (12.0) 20.8 0.6 115.7 (7.7) 56.0 (21.5) (58.9)
Tier 3 players BJ Cap. Land 2868 HK 0.0 1.0 (24.6) (25.2) (31.0) (31.9) (27.9) (25.2) (42.0) 11.4 20.8 (18.0) 39.5 (30.8) (14.9) (40.2) (85.7) Central China 832 HK 7.9 9.7 4.2 11.6 14.8 (9.6) (7.7) 9.7 (3.4) (26.8) (7.4) 4.3 116.6 (21.3) 57.6 (20.7) n.a. China Merchants Land 978 HK 0.0 (0.9) (3.4) 1.8 (0.9) (3.4) (0.9) 0.9 (8.7) (40.0) 36.8 (28.2) 28.6 (23.6) 10.9 (6.6) (74.2) China SCE Property 1966 HK (0.3) (1.4) 5.9 17.8 17.8 4.1 0.3 11.9 3.8 (12.4) 8.0 33.1 44.6 (15.4) 59.3 (29.5) n.a. China South City 1668 HK 1.2 0.0 (5.4) (1.1) 1.2 11.5 14.5 (24.3) 17.6 60.9 (50.6) (7.4) 26.5 (45.9) (10.8) 16.2 n.a. COGO 81 HK 0.6 (0.2) 5.5 19.2 24.0 3.5 1.4 20.7 5.5 (46.7) (16.7) (22.9) 69.2 (38.3) 109.7 (22.8) 13.5 Gemdale Props 535 HK (0.8) 0.9 (4.8) 0.9 5.4 (5.6) (7.1) 6.3 (4.8) (28.6) 4.0 (8.7) 70.5 (8.6) 39.2 7.8 168.2 Greenland 337 HK (3.2) (3.2) 10.4 17.5 17.5 10.0 5.8 18.0 (4.8) (18.3) (1.9) (36.1) 61.1 (38.6) 77.0 (31.1) (63.2) Greentown 3900 HK (2.8) (3.0) (16.6) (10.4) (11.8) (15.2) (29.9) (14.6) 31.1 (35.0) 0.0 (18.4) 60.2 (41.6) 62.8 20.2 (49.8) Hopson Dev 754 HK (2.9) (4.6) 5.3 6.4 32.2 41.6 35.5 35.1 278.7 (24.0) 8.7 (10.5) 10.9 (15.4) 21.9 150.1 (14.6) Joy City 207 HK 1.0 2.1 (3.9) (5.8) 0.0 (2.0) 3.2 3.2 (22.2) (23.5) (21.3) (16.9) 28.6 (32.5) 1.2 (44.8) (88.5) Kaisa Group 1638 HK (2.3) (1.0) (4.4) 2.2 1.6 1.9 (3.4) 1.6 32.9 (36.4) (1.9) 0.0 182.6 (43.3) 48.8 3.0 n.a. LVGEM 95 HK 1.4 5.1 (5.1) (1.3) (2.2) (8.2) (11.8) (3.4) 0.4 119.8 9.0 (1.2) 24.7 (25.2) 25.1 (16.5) 190.7 Minmetals Land 230 HK 2.3 3.5 (5.4) (2.2) 1.1 (3.3) 1.1 1.1 (14.6) (13.6) 1.1 3.3 40.9 0.0 0.0 (33.6) (76.2) Modern Land (China) 1107 HK 2.4 3.7 (11.5) (6.6) (4.5) (10.5) (24.8) 0.0 (17.5) 1.6 98.4 (53.2) 79.5 (42.9) 22.9 (28.0) n.a. Poly HK 119 HK (1.3) (1.3) (13.1) (2.2) (3.4) (7.8) 0.0 (0.9) (13.1) (22.9) (20.7) 1.6 58.4 (39.8) 31.8 (29.7) (80.3) Powerlong 1238 HK 9.8 10.5 14.1 54.9 62.7 47.8 47.3 57.2 73.8 (34.3) 50.5 39.0 66.2 (18.7) 68.8 2.9 n.a. Road King 1098 HK 1.8 0.8 (5.0) 1.2 4.3 3.2 6.3 4.2 (11.2) (11.7) 3.1 (4.6) 109.3 3.6 8.2 (34.4) (39.6) Ronshine China 3301 HK 0.0 2.2 0.4 (2.7) 0.0 (3.4) (8.2) 0.9 (30.4) n.a. n.a. n.a. 54.5 6.0 16.9 (49.7) n.a. Shui On Land 272 HK 7.4 7.4 7.4 12.1 14.0 18.2 22.6 20.4 (0.8) (23.1) 16.4 (21.6) 29.3 (19.4) (1.7) (36.8) (86.8) SOHO China 410 HK (0.4) (2.1) (8.5) (2.1) 0.4 0.9 7.3 2.2 (36.7) (18.0) (31.4) 1.6 37.6 (38.9) 5.4 (21.4) (77.2) Yanlord Land YLLG SP 0.0 3.2 10.3 13.3 9.4 11.3 14.3 14.3 23.1 (15.1) (3.4) 31.3 22.7 (24.7) (0.8) (7.4) (69.7) Yuzhou Properties 1628 HK 2.7 0.4 (27.3) (20.4) (20.7) (26.4) (26.4) (19.3) (28.7) 1.0 7.7 28.6 54.4 (22.5) 32.8 (34.7) n.a. Zhenro Properties 6158 HK (0.2) (2.9) 0.2 17.4 9.0 9.5 16.7 13.9 7.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.4 (16.6) n.a. Zhong An 672 HK 0.0 3.9 (3.6) 31.1 31.1 17.6 21.2 25.0 66.0 (20.8) (28.9) (21.0) 187.5 (71.2) (10.6) 35.0 n.a. Zhongliang Holdings 2772 HK (0.2) 4.8 3.4 6.6 10.3 7.9 9.8 5.8 (3.2) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (16.3) n.a. Average 0.9 1.5 (2.9) 5.2 7.0 2.4 2.3 6.3 11.5 (11.2) 3.5 (5.5) 62.7 (27.0) 26.8 (11.0) (28.9) Average (Overall) 0.4 0.5 (2.1) 6.3 8.4 2.8 5.2 7.6 9.7 (7.4) 10.6 (5.5) 95.8 (16.7) 35.2 (15.1) (21.3)
Source: Thomson Reuters
Page 16
Industry Focus
China Property Sector
Discount to NAV
Sector average (DBS coverage only) Agile Property (3383 HK)
% % 40 20
20 0
0 (20) +1SD -36.7% +2SD: -16.8% (20) +1SD: -29.9% (40) Avg: -53.5% Mean: -42.9% (40) (60) -1SD -70.4% (60) -1SD: -56% (80) -2SD: -69.1%
(80) (100)
Jul-08
Jul-19
Jan-19
Oct-06
Oct-08
Jan-10
Feb-21
Dec-14
Dec-16
Nov-10
Nov-12
Oct-14
Feb-21
Aug-11
Dec-17
Mar-13 May-16
Central China (832 HK) China Aoyuan (3883 HK)
% % 0 (50) (10) (52) (20) (54) +1SD -60% (30) (56) (40) (58) +1SD -51.7% Avg: -62.8% (50) (60) (60) Avg: -63.8% (62) (70) -1SD -75.8% (64) -1SD -65.6% (80) (66) (90) (68)
(100) (70)
Jul-20
Jul-10
Jul-13
Jul-16
Jan-21
Jan-09
Jan-12
Jan-15
Jan-18
Jun-20
Oct-20
Apr-20
Feb-21
Sep-20
Aug-19
Dec-20 Mar-21
China Jinmao Holdings (817 HK) China Overseas (688 HK)
% % 0 60 (10) 40 (20) 20 +1SD -2.6% (30) +1SD -38.9% 0 Avg: -18.7% (40) Avg: -48.8% (20) (50) (40) -1SD -34.7% (60) (60) (70) -1SD -58.7% (80)
(80)
Jul-12
Jan-05 Jan-20
Jun-11
Oct-15
Apr-09
Feb-06 Feb-21
Sep-14
Aug-13
Dec-17 Dec-18
Jul-14 Jul-15
Nov-16
Mar-07 Mar-08
May-10
Jun-16
Oct-11
Apr-18
Feb-21
Sep-12
Aug-13
Nov-09 Nov-10
Mar-19 Mar-20 May-17
Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS HK
Page 17
Industry Focus
China Property Sector
Discount to NAV (continued)
COGO (81 HK) CR Land (1109 HK)
% % 0 10 (10) 0 +1SD -18.8% (20) (10) (20) (30) +1SD -41.9% Avg: -30.8% (40) (30) Avg: -56.2% (50) (40) (60) (50) -1SD -42.8% (70) -1SD -70.6% (60) (80) (70)
(90) (80)
Jul-19
Jan-05
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-13
Jan-17
Jun-18
Oct-14
Oct-19
Feb-21
Feb-21
Sep-07
Sep-11
Sep-15
Aug-11
Dec-17
Mar-13
May-06
May-10
May-14 May-16
China Vanke (2202 HK) Country Garden (2007 HK)
% % 50 20 40 10 30 0 20 (10) 10 +1SD -24.9% +1SD -2.9% (20) 0 (30) Avg: -37.8% (10) Avg: -17.9% (40) (20) (50) -1SD -50.6% (30) -1SD -32.8% (60) (40) (70) (50) (80)
(60)
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Feb-17
Feb-19
Feb-21
Jun-15
Apr-18
Feb-20
Feb-21
Mar-19
May-16 May-17
Evergrande (3333 HK) LVGEM (95 HK)
% % 60 (76) 40 (77) 20 (78) (79) 0 +1SD -80.7% (80) (20) +1SD -29.2% (81) Avg: -82% (40) Avg: -48.5% (82) (60) -1SD -67.7% (83) (80) (84) -1SD -83.4%
(100) (85)
Jul-20
Jan-21 Jan-21
Jun-20 Jun-20
Oct-20 Oct-20
Jan-18 Jan-16 Jan-17
Feb-21
Sep-20
Aug-20 Aug-20
Dec-20 Dec-20
Nov-20
Mar-21 Mar-21
Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21
Dec-13 Dec-12 Dec-14
Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11
Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS HK
Page 18
Industry Focus
China Property Sector
Discount to NAV (continued)
Logan (3380 HK) Longfor (960 HK)
% % 0 50 (10) 40 30 (20) 20 10 (30) +1SD -33.6% +1SD -1.5% 0 (10) (40) Avg: -46.5% (20) Avg: -20.9% (50) (30) -1SD -59.4% -1SD -40.3% (40) (60) (50)
(70) (60)
Jan-17
Jan-21
Jun-19
Jun-19
Apr-20
Apr-18
Apr-20
Feb-19
Feb-21
Aug-18
Sep-18
Sep-20
Nov-17
Nov-17 Nov-19
Shimao Property (813 HK) SOHO China (410 HK)
% % 20 0 10 (10) 0 (20) (10) (30) (20) (40) +1SD -50% +1SD -27.5% (30) (50) Avg: -42.5% (60) (40) Avg: -60% (70) (50) -1SD -70% (80) (60) -1SD -57.4% (90) (70) (100)
(80)
Jul-11
Jan-15
Jun-17
Oct-06
Oct-19
Apr-10
Feb-09
Jul-19
Sep-12
Aug-18
Dec-07
Dec-20
Nov-13
Mar-16
Jan-18
Jun-16
Oct-11
Apr-10
Feb-21
Sep-08
Nov-14
Mar-07 May-13
Sunac (1918 HK) Yuexiu Property (123 HK)
% % (30.0) (35) (32.0) (40) (34.0) (45) (36.0) +1SD -36.8% +1SD -49.7% (38.0) Avg: -39.6% (50) Avg: -55.5% (40.0) (55) (42.0) (60) (44.0) -1SD -42.3% -1SD -61.3% (65) (46.0)
(70)
5-Apr-21
4-Feb-21
6-Mar-21
Jun-14 Jun-18
14-Feb-21 24-Feb-21
Oct-15 Oct-19
Feb-13 Feb-17 Feb-21
16-Mar-21 26-Mar-21
Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS HK
Page 19
Industry Focus
China Property Sector
Discount to NAV (continued)
Yanlord Land (YLLG SP) Yuzhou (1628 HK)
% % 60 (30) 40 (35) (40) 20 (45) +1SD -48.1% 0 (50) (20) +1SD -25.5% (55) Avg: -57.1% (40) Avg: -45.9% (60) (65) -1SD -66.1% (60) (70) -1SD -66.2% (80) (75)
(100) (80)
Jul-18
Jul-20
Oct-18
Apr-20
Oct-07
Feb-19
Feb-21
Sep-19
Feb-18
Feb-21
Dec-19
Sep-10
Sep-13
Aug-16
Aug-19
Nov-20
Mar-18
Mar-09
Mar-12
Mar-15 May-19
Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS HK
Page 20
Industry Focus
China Property Sector
PE charts
Sector average Agile Property (3383 HK)
x x 60 16 50 14 40 12 10 30 +1SD: 8.3x 8 20 +2SD: 18.9x Avg: 6x +1SD: 13.4x 6 10 Mean: 7.9x 4 -1SD: 2.5x -1SD: 3.7x 0 2 -2SD: -3.0x
(10) 0
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Feb-20 Feb-21
Central China (832 HK) China Aoyuan (3883 HK)
x x 12 18 16 10 14 8 12 +1SD: 6.5x 10 6 Avg: 5.2x 8 +1SD: 6.7x 4 6 Avg: 4.6x -1SD: 4x 4 2 -1SD: 2.5x 2
0 0
Jun-08
Jun-12
Jun-16
Jun-20
Oct-09
Oct-13
Oct-17
Oct-21
Feb-11
Feb-15
Feb-19
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20 Dec-21
China Jinmao Holdings (817 HK) China Overseas (688 HK)
x x 30 35
25 30 25 20 20 15 +1SD: 13.5x 15 +1SD: 13.2x 10 Avg: 9x Avg: 8.7x 10 -1SD: 4.4x 5 5 -1SD: 4.1x
0 0
Jul-12 Jul-13
Jul-17
Jan-09
Jun-10 Jun-11
Oct-18 Oct-17
Oct-21
Apr-08
Apr-13
Feb-16 Feb-05
Sep-16
Sep-14
Aug-14 Aug-15
Aug-07
Dec-18 Dec-20 Dec-21
Nov-19
Nov-11
Mar-06 Mar-07
May-09 May-10 May-20
Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS HK
Page 21
Industry Focus
China Property Sector
PE charts (continued)
COGO (81 HK) CR Land (1109 HK)
x 190x (Dec-07) x 40 50 35 45 30 40 35 25 30 20 +1SD: 16.4x 25 15 20 +1SD: 16.7x 10 Avg: 7x 15 Avg: 10.2x 5 10 0 5 -1SD: 3.8x
-5 -1SD: -2.5x 0
Jan-99
Jan-01
Dec-04
Dec-06
Dec-08
Dec-10
Dec-12
Dec-14
Dec-16
Dec-18
Dec-20
Dec-02
Dec-04
Dec-06
Dec-08
Dec-10
Dec-12
Dec-14
Dec-16
Dec-18 Dec-20
China Evergrande (3333 HK) China Vanke (2202 HK)
x x 35 35
30 30
25 25
20 20 +1SD: 12.3x 15 15 Avg: 7.2x +1SD: 13.4x 10 10 Avg: 8.9x -1SD: 2.2x 5 5 -1SD: 4.4x
0 0
Jul-16
Jan-99
Jan-18
Jun-00
Jun-19
Oct-07
Apr-06
Feb-15
Sep-10
Aug-13
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-01
Dec-20
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-04
Mar-09
Mar-12 May-03
Country Garden (2007 HK) Logan Property (3380 HK)
x x 10 8 9 7 8 +1SD: 7.1x 6 7 +1SD: 5x 6 Avg: 5.8x 5 Avg: 4x 5 4 -1SD: 3x 4 -1SD: 4.4x 3 3 2 2 1 1
0 0
Jan-10
Jun-17
Jun-15
Oct-19
Apr-16
Feb-15
Feb-14
Sep-12
Aug-18
Aug-19
Dec-13
Dec-20
Dec-20
Nov-16
Mar-18 May-11
Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS HK
Page 22
Industry Focus
China Property Sector
PE charts (continued)
Longfor (960 HK) LVGEM (95 HK)
x x 14 90
12 80 70 10 +1SD: 8.3x 60 8 Avg: 6.8x 50 6 -1SD: 5.3x 40 30 +1SD: 24.5x 4 20 Avg: 14.2x 2 10 -1SD: 4x
0 0
Jul-10
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jan-07
Jan-14
Jan-21
Jun-15
Oct-18
Apr-14
Feb-12
Sep-11
Sep-18
Aug-17
Dec-05
Dec-10
Dec-20
Nov-09
Nov-12
Nov-19
Nov-19
Mar-08
Mar-13
Mar-15
May-09 May-16
Shimao Property (813 HK) SOHO China (410 HK)
x x 90 70 80 60 70 50 60 40 50 40 30 30 +1SD: 21.8x 20 20 +1SD: 12.1x Avg: 11x 10 Avg: 6.9x 10 -1SD: 0.2x -1SD: 1.7x 0
0
Jul-11
Jan-19
Oct-07
Apr-15
Jul-11
Aug-09
Dec-20
Mar-17
May-13
Jan-08
Jan-15
Jun-17
Oct-19
Sep-12
Aug-18
Dec-20
Nov-13
Mar-09
Mar-16 May-10
Sunac (1918 HK) Yuexiu Property (123 HK)
x x 12 35
10 30
8 25 +1SD: 5.8x 20 6 Avg: 4.2x 15 4 +1SD: 11.8x 10 Avg: 7.3x 2 5 -1SD: 2.7x -1SD: 2.5x
0 0
Jan-03
Jun-13
Jun-17
Jun-21
Oct-13
Oct-10
Oct-14
Oct-18
Feb-12
Feb-16
Feb-20
Aug-06
Dec-20
Mar-10 May-17
Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS HK
Page 23
Industry Focus
China Property Sector
PE charts (continued)
Yanlord (YLLG SP) Yuzhou Properties (1628 HK)
x x +1SD: 91.8x 40 100.0 35 80.0 30 60.0 40.0 25 20.0 Avg: 11.2x 20 0.0 15 +1SD: 13.5x -20.0 10 Avg: 8.1x -40.0 5 -1SD: 2.7x -60.0 -1SD: -69.4x
0 -80.0
Jul-13
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jun-06
Jun-12
Apr-11
Apr-17
Feb-10
Feb-16
Sep-07
Sep-11
Sep-13
Sep-19
Dec-20
Nov-09
Nov-08
Nov-14
Nov-20
Mar-17 May-15
Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS HK
Page 24
Industry Focus
China Property Sector
PB charts
Sector average Agile Property (3383 HK)
x x 4.0 6.0 3.5 5.0 3.0 2.5 4.0 +2SD: 2.1x 2.0 +1SD: 1.6x 3.0 1.5 +1SD: 1.9x Mean: 1.1x 2.0 1.0 Avg: 1.1x 0.5 1.0 -1SD: 0.5x 0.0 -1SD: 0.3x -2SD: 0.0x 0.0
(0.5)
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Jan-05
Jan-18
Jun-06
Jun-19
Oct-10
Apr-12
Feb-15
Sep-13
Aug-16
Dec-20
Nov-07 May-09
Central China (832 HK) China Aoyuan (3883 HK)
x x 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 +1SD: 1x 1.0 +1SD: 0.9x 0.8 Avg: 0.8x 0.8 0.6 Avg: 0.6x 0.6 -1SD: 0.5x 0.4 0.4 -1SD: 0.3x 0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jun-08
Jun-09
Oct-16
Oct-17
Sep-14
Sep-15
Aug-12
Aug-13
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Nov-18 Nov-19
China Jinmao Holdings (817 HK) China Overseas (688 HK)
x x 4.0 5.0 3.5 4.5 4.0 3.0 3.5 2.5 3.0 +1SD: 2.3x 2.0 2.5 1.5 +1SD: 1.4x 2.0 Avg: 1.5x Avg: 1x 1.5 1.0 1.0 -1SD: 0.8x 0.5 -1SD: 0.6x 0.5
0.0 0.0
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jun-11
Oct-17
Oct-18
Apr-10
Apr-14
Apr-18
Apr-08
Feb-05
Sep-16
Aug-07
Aug-11
Aug-15
Aug-19
Aug-14
Aug-15
Dec-08
Dec-12
Dec-16
Dec-20
Dec-20
Dec-21
Nov-19
Mar-06
Mar-07
May-09 May-10
Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS HK
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
PB charts (continued)
COGO (81 HK) CR Land (1109 HK)
x x 3.0 3.5
2.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 +1SD: 1.6x 1.5 +1SD: 1.3x 1.5 Avg: 1.2x 1.0 Avg: 0.7x 1.0 0.5 -1SD: 0.2x 0.5 -1SD: 0.8x
0.0 0.0
Jan-99
Jan-01
Dec-04
Dec-06
Dec-08
Dec-10
Dec-12
Dec-14
Dec-16
Dec-18
Dec-20
Dec-02
Dec-04
Dec-06
Dec-08
Dec-10
Dec-12
Dec-14
Dec-16
Dec-18 Dec-20
China Evergrande (3333 HK) China Vanke (2202 HK)
x x 3.5 5.0 4.5 3.0 4.0 2.5 3.5 3.0 2.0 +1SD: 1.8x 2.5 Avg: 1.3x +1SD: 2x 1.5 2.0 Avg: 1.4x 1.5 1.0 -1SD: 0.8x 1.0 0.5 0.5 -1SD: 0.8x
0.0 0.0
Jul-16
Jan-99
Jan-18
Jun-00
Jun-19
Oct-07
Apr-06
Feb-15
Sep-10
Aug-13
Dec-01
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-20
Dec-21
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-04 Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
Mar-09
Mar-12 May-03
Country Garden (2007 HK) Logan Property (3380 HK)
x x 3.0 2.5
2.5 2.0
2.0 +1SD: 1.5x +1SD: 1.5x 1.5 1.5 Avg: 1.1x Avg: 1.2x 1.0 1.0 -1SD: 0.7x -1SD: 0.8x 0.5 0.5
0.0 0.0
Jan-10
Jun-15 Jun-17
Oct-19
Apr-16
Feb-14 Feb-15
Sep-12
Aug-19 Aug-18
Dec-20 Dec-13 Dec-20
Nov-16
Mar-18 May-11
Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS HK
Page 26
Industry Focus
China Property Sector
PB charts (continued)
Longfor (960 HK) LVGEM (95 HK)
x x 3.0 8.0 7.0 2.5 6.0 2.0 +1SD: 1.8x 5.0 1.5 Avg: 1.4x 4.0 -1SD: 1x 3.0 +1SD: 2.5x 1.0 2.0 Avg: 1.3x 0.5 1.0 -1SD: 0.1x
0.0 0.0
Jul-16
Jul-10
Jul-17
Jan-07
Jan-14
Jan-21
Jun-15
Oct-18
Apr-14
Feb-12
Sep-11
Sep-18
Aug-17
Dec-10
Dec-20
Dec-05
Nov-09
Nov-19
Nov-12
Nov-19
Mar-13
Mar-08
Mar-15
May-09 May-16
Shimao Property (813 HK) SOHO China (410 HK)
x x 3.0 3.5
2.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 +1SD: 1.3x 1.5 Avg: 0.9x 1.0 +1SD: 1x 1.0 Avg: 0.6x 0.5 -1SD: 0.6x 0.5 -1SD: 0.3x
0.0 0.0
Jul-11
Jul-11
Jan-08
Jan-15
Jan-19
Jun-17
Oct-07
Oct-19
Apr-15
Sep-12
Aug-09
Aug-18
Dec-20
Dec-20
Nov-13
Mar-09
Mar-16
Mar-17
May-10 May-13
Sunac (1918 HK) Yuexiu Property (123 HK)
x x 3.0 1.8 1.6 2.5 1.4 2.0 1.2
+1SD: 1.4x 1.0 1.5 +1SD: 0.8x Avg: 1x 0.8 Avg: 0.6x 1.0 0.6 -1SD: 0.6x 0.4 0.5 -1SD: 0.4x 0.2
0.0 0.0
Jan-03
Jun-13
Jun-17
Jun-21
Oct-10
Oct-14
Oct-18
Oct-13
Feb-12
Feb-16
Feb-20
Aug-06
Dec-20
Mar-10 May-17
Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS HK
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
PB charts (continued)
Yanlord (YLLG SP) Yuzhou Properties (1628 HK)
x x 5.0 1.5 4.5 4.0 1.3 3.5 1.1 3.0 +1SD: 0.9x 2.5 0.9 Avg: 0.7x 2.0 +1SD: 1.7x 1.5 0.7 Avg: 1x 1.0 0.5 -1SD: 0.6x 0.5 -1SD: 0.2x
0.0 0.3
Jul-18
Jul-13
Jan-19
Jun-06
Jun-12
Apr-11
Apr-17
Feb-10
Feb-16
Sep-07
Sep-13
Sep-19
Sep-11
Dec-20
Nov-08
Nov-14
Nov-09
Nov-20
Mar-17 May-15
Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS HK
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
DBS HK recommendations are based on an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps) HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps) FULLY VALUED (negative total return, i.e., > -10% over the next 12 months) SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
*Share price appreciation + dividends
Completed Date: 19 Apr 2021 10:50:25 (HKT) Dissemination Date: 19 Apr 2021 11:09:44 (HKT) Sources for all charts and tables are DBS HK unless otherwise specified.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBS HK”). This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd., DBS HK, DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBSV HK”), and DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd. (“DBSVS”), its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS HK.
The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBS Bank Ltd., DBS HK, DBSV HK, DBSVS, its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents (collectively, the “DBS Group”) have not conducted due diligence on any of the companies, verified any information or sources or taken into account any other factors which we may consider to be relevant or appropriate in preparing the research. Accordingly, we do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the research set out in this report. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate independent legal or financial advice. The DBS Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The DBS Group, along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. The DBS Group, may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies.
Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed, it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report and the DBS Group is under no obligation to update the information in this report.
This publication has not been reviewed or authorized by any regulatory authority in Singapore, Hong Kong or elsewhere. There is no planned schedule or frequency for updating research publication relating to any issuer.
The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that: (a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and (b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments stated therein.
Please contact the primary analyst for valuation methodologies and assumptions associated with the covered companies or price targets. Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies) mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to the commodity referred to in this report.
DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc (“DBSVUSA”), a US-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research department, has not participated in any public offering of securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months and does not engage in market-making.
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst(s) also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. The research analyst (s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that he or his associate1 does not serve as an officer of the issuer or the new listing applicant (which includes in the case of a real estate investment trust, an officer of the management company of the real estate investment trust; and in the case of any other entity, an officer or its equivalent counterparty of the entity who is responsible for the management of the issuer or the new listing applicant) and the research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report or his associate does not have financial interests2 in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant that the analyst reviews. DBS Group has procedures in place to eliminate, avoid and manage any potential conflicts of interests that may arise in connection with the production of research reports. The research analyst(s) responsible for this report operates as part of a separate and independent team to the investment banking function of the DBS Group and procedures are in place to ensure that confidential information held by either the research or investment banking function is handled appropriately. There is no direct link of DBS Group's compensation to any specific investment banking function of the DBS Group.
COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
1. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS or their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have proprietary positions in China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd (688 HK), China Resources Land Ltd (1109 HK), China Vanke Co Ltd (2202 HK), Country Garden Holdings Co Ltd (2007 HK), China Evergrande Group (3333 HK), Longfor Group Holdings Ltd (960 HK), Shimao Group Holdings Ltd (813 HK), Sunac China Holdings Ltd (1918 HK), Agile Group Holdings Ltd (3383 HK), Guangzhou R&F Properties Co Ltd (2777 HK) and Sino- Ocean Group Holding Ltd (3377 HK) recommended in this report as of 14 Apr 2021.
DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS or their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have a proprietary position in Yanlord Land Group Limited (YLLG SP) recommended in this report as of 31 Mar 2021.
2. Neither DBS Bank Ltd nor DBS HK market makes in equity securities of the issuer(s) or company(ies) mentioned in this Research Report.
3. Compensation for investment banking services: DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA have received compensation, within the past 12 months for investment banking services from China Aoyuan Group Ltd (3883 HK), China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (817 HK), Yuexiu Property Co Ltd (123 HK), Central China Real Estate Ltd (832 HK), China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Ltd (81 HK), Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900 HK) and Hopson Development Holdings Ltd (754 HK) as of 31 Mar 2021.
4. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for China Aoyuan Group Ltd (3883 HK), Yuexiu Property Co Ltd (123 HK), Central China Real Estate Ltd (832 HK), China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Ltd (81 HK), Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900 HK), Hopson Development Holdings Ltd (754 HK) and LVGEM China Real Estate Investment Co Ltd (95 HK) in the past 12 months, as of 31 Mar 2021.
DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any public offering of securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.
1 An associate is defined as (i) the spouse, or any minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, of the analyst; (ii) the trustee of a trust of which the analyst, his spouse, minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, is a beneficiary or discretionary object; or (iii) another person accustomed or obliged to act in accordance with the directions or instructions of the analyst.
2 Financial interest is defined as interests that are commonly known financial interest, such as investment in the securities in respect of an issuer or a new listing applicant, or financial accommodation arrangement between the issuer or the new listing applicant and the firm or analysis. This term does not include commercial lending conducted at arm's length, or investments in any collective investment scheme other than an issuer or new listing applicant notwithstanding the fact that the scheme has investments in securities in respect of an issuer or a new listing applicant.
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
5. Disclosure of previous investment recommendation produced: DBS Bank Ltd, DBSVS, DBS HK, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA may have published other investment recommendations in respect of the same securities / instruments recommended in this research report during the preceding 12 months. Please contact the primary analyst listed in the first page of this report to view previous investment recommendations published by DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA in the preceding 12 months.
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
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Distribution of this report is intended only for “wholesale investors” within the meaning of the CA.
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Industry Focus
China Property Sector
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