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Contracted Sales Growth Will Slow in 2021 on Tightened Credit

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Contracted Sales Growth Will Slow in 2021 on Tightened Credit CORPORATES SECTOR IN-DEPTH Property – China 28 January 2021 China Property Focus: Contracted sales growth will slow in 2021 on tightened credit TABLE OF CONTENTS » We expect national contracted sales growth in 2021 to slow amid tighter onshore Mild national contracted sales growth credit conditions. National contracted sales value grew 10.8% year-on-year in 2020 likely in 2021 2 (compared with 10.3% growth in 2019), largely driven by an increase in average selling Rated developers' offshore bond issuance remained robust in January price. Contracted sales volume (gross floor area), increased by 3.2% in 2020, higher than amid signs of tightening onshore the 1.5% growth in 2019, reflecting solid housing demand and the gradual economic credit to the sector 4 recovery in China despite the disruption caused by the coronavirus outbreak in early Liquidity stress indicator remained flat in December 2020 5 2020. Eight rating actions from 27 November to 26 January 6 » Rated developers' offshore bond issuance remained robust in January amid signs Appendix I 8 of tightening onshore credit to the sector. Rated developers issued $11.5 billion of Appendix II 9 offshore bonds in January 2021 (to 26 January), mainly for refinancing. The amount Appendix III 13 dropped 30% from $16.5 billion in January 2020 but remained robust compared to the Moody's related publications 14 $4.4 billion average monthly issuance in 2020. The active issuance at the beginning of the year also reflects developers' efforts to replenish liquidity amid signs of tightening onshore credit to the sector. On 31 December 2020, the Chinese regulators announced Contacts new guidelines to limit Chinese banks' property loan exposure. Kelly Chen +852.3758.1505 » Liquidity stress indicator was flat in December 2020. Our Asian Liquidity Stress AVP-Analyst [email protected] sub-indicator for rated high-yield Chinese developers was 18.6% for both November and December 2020, down from 20.3% in October 2020. The indicator improved in Franco Leung, CFA +852.3758.1521 Associate Managing Director November because a rated developer's liquidity improved on better operating cash flow. [email protected] » Eight rating actions from 27 November 2020 to 26 January 2021. We upgraded two Gary Lau +852.3758.1377 companies, downgraded one and affirmed the ratings of four other developers during the MD-Corporate Finance [email protected] period. We also had a new rating assignment in the period. CLIENT SERVICES Moody's China Property Dashboard Americas 1-212-553-1653 No. of high yield (HY) rated developers with weak liquidity Bond issuance ($ billion) Dec 20 Nov 20 Onshore Offshore Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 # of HY developers with SGL-4 11 11 2020 36.2 52.8 % of total HY developers 18.6% 18.6% 2019 21.4 69.4 Developers with highest YTD sales growth No. of rating actions 27 Nov 20 - 26 Jan 21 Japan 81-3-5408-4100 2020 Name % Positive Negative Sales growth 1 Greentown 53% Rating actions 2 1 EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 year-on-year 2 Hopson 51% New rating assignments 1 3 Jinmao 44% % of rated developers with positive outlook and RUR Up 7% % of rated developers with negative outlook and RUR Down 16% MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES Mild national contracted sales growth likely in 2021 » We expect national contracted sales growth in 2021 to moderate as a tightened credit environment will slow growth for both average selling price (ASP) and sales volume. The growth is likely to be front-loaded because of the low base in H1 2020 when sales were disrupted by the coronavirus outbreak. » National contracted sales value growth grew 10.8% in 2020, compared to 10.3% in 2019, driven mainly by a 7.6% year-on- year growth in ASP (down from 8.7% growth in 2019). Sales volume grew 3.2%, up from 1.5% in 2019, reflecting solid housing demand and the gradual economic recovery in China despite the disruption caused by the coronavirus outbreak in early 2020. » In December 2020, national contracted sales value growth (three-month moving average) picked up to 21.8% from 21.1% in November (Exhibit 1). Contracted sales volume (three-month moving average) also accelerated, to 12.7% from 11.4% for the same periods. » Property prices continued to grow in December. According to residential property sales price in 70 large and medium-sized cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the pace of growth slowed to 4.1% and 3.3% for Tier 2 and lower-tier cities, from 4.3% and 3.6% in November, and 4.5% and 3.8% in October (Exhibit 2). The December growth rates were the lowest for these cities in 2020. Meanwhile, price growth in Tier 1 cities rose slightly in December, to 4% from 3.9% in November, but was down marginally from 4.1% in October. » Year-on-year contracted sales value growth (three-month moving average) for the 30 developers we track (of the 71 we rate) accelerated to 24% in December from 17.5% in November and 20.6% in October, respectively (Exhibit 3). For 2020, their growth was 12.8%, higher than the national average of 10.8%. We expect our rated developers will continue to outperform the general market because of their strong sales execution abilities, branding and better access to funding. » Among the 71 rated Chinese developers, Greentown China Holdings Limited (Ba3 stable) (up 53%) recorded the highest year- on-year contracted sales growth in 2020, followed by Hopson Development Holdings Limited (B2 stable) (up 51%), China Jinmao Holdings Group Limited (Baa3 stable) (up 44%), and Yuzhou Group Holdings Company Limited (Ba3 stable) (up 40%). » Inventory levels across different city tiers declined in December on improved sales. Inventory months at Tier 1, Tier 2 and lower-tier cities were 7.8 months, 10.2 months and 6.4 months, respectively, down from 8.2 months, 10.7 months, and 7.4 months in November (Exhibit 4). Exhibit 1 National sales value growth (three-month moving average) continued to improve in December 3-Month Moving Average National Sales YOY Change (left axis) 3-Month Moving Average Sales of 30 Tracked Issuers YOY change (left axis) Market Share of 30 Tracked Issuers Measured by 12-Month Moving Average Sales (right axis) 3-Month Moving Average National Sales YOY Change (left axis) 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% -20% -20% -40% -40% Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China, company information This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2 28 January 2021 Property – China: China Property Focus: Contracted sales growth will slow in 2021 on tightened credit MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES Exhibit 2 Year-on-year growth of new residential property prices in Tier 2 and lower-tier cities slowed in H2 2020 Tier 1 cities Tier 2 cities Lower-tier cities 30% 25% 20% 15% Year ChangeYear - 10% on - 5% Year 0% -5% Tier 1 cities: Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen. Tier 2 cities included in this exhibit: Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Shenyang, Dalian, Changchun, Harbin, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Hefei, Fuzhou, Xiamen, Nanchang, Jinan, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Changsha, Nanning, Haikou, Chongqing, Chengdu, Guiyang, Kunming, Xi’an, Lanzhou, Xining, Yinchuan, Urumqi, Wuxi, Hohhot and Sanya. Lower-tier cities in this exhibit are the remaining 70 major cities not listed above. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Exhibit 3 2020 contracted sales and year-on-year growth of the 30 developers we track 2020 Contracted Sales Amount (Left axis) Year-on-Year Growth (Right axis) 800 60% 700 600 40% 500 400 20% RMB billionRMB 300 200 0% growth YTD YoY 100 0 -20% Sources: Company information and China Real Estate Information System Exhibit 4 Inventory levels continue to remain healthy across different city tiers Tier 1 cities Tier 2 cities Lower-tier cities 30 - 25 month month - 20 15 contracted sales contracted 10 sale homes based on three based on homes sale - 5 for # of months it would take to sellavailable take to would it months # of 0 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Tier 1 cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Tier 2 cities included in this exhibit: Tianjin, Chongqing, Shenyang, Fuzhou, Hangzhou, Zhengzhou, Nanjing, Wuhan, Xiamen, Xian, Changsha, Ningbo, Qingdao, Changchun, Suzhou and Chengdu. Lower-tier cities included in this exhibit: Tonglu, Lin'an, Jiande, Dongying, Huzhou, Jiangyin, Wuhu, Huaibei and Wenzhou. Source: China Real Estate Information System 3 28 January 2021 Property – China: China Property Focus: Contracted sales growth will slow in 2021 on tightened credit MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES Rated developers' offshore bond issuance remained robust in January amid signs of tightening onshore credit to the sector » Rated developers issued $11.5 billion of offshore bonds in January 2021 (to 26 January). This issuance, mainly for refinancing, enhanced the liquidity and debt maturity profiles of the developers. The amount dropped 30% from $16.5 billion in January 2020 but remained robust compared to the $4.4 billion average monthly issuance for 2020 (Exhibit 5). The active issuance at the beginning of the year also reflects developers' efforts to replenish liquidity amid signs of tightening onshore credit to the sector. » Rated developers issued a total of $52.6 billion offshore bonds in 2020, down from the historical high in 2019 of $69.4 billion.
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