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Investment Savills Research Beijing – February 2019 MARKET IN MINUTES Investment Savills Research Savills team Please contact us for further information RESEARCH James Macdonald Senior Director China +8621 6391 6688 james.macdonald@ savills.com.cn Jack Xiong Director Beijing +8610 5925 2042 jack.xiong@ savills.com.cn CENTRAL MANAGEMENT En-bloc investment market remains active Anthony Mcquade Foreign investors showed a growing appetite for assets in prime locations and Managing Director Northern China many large-scale transactions were completed during the quarter. +8610 5925 2002 anthony.mcquade@ savills.com.cn • The first-hand strata-title office market received 271,100 sq • A total of 28 land plots were transacted in Q4/2018 for a m of new supply in Q4/2018, down 29.1% quarter-on-quarter combined consideration of RMB76.7 billion, marking a INVESTMENT (QoQ). Total transaction area reached 186,300 sq m, up considerable 366% QoQ increase. Spring Cao 16.1% QoQ. Senior Director Beijing • New supply in the first-hand strata-title retail market +8610 5925 2048 reached 47,000 sq m in Q4/2018, down 41.3% QoQ. Total spring.cao@ “ Urban planning policy in savills.com.cn transaction area decreased by 25.9% QoQ to 172,000 sq m. Beijing will limit future supply Savills plc • Activity in the en-bloc investment market was largely active Savills is a leading global real of commercial assets in the estate service provider listed on in Q4/2018. A total of seven deals were concluded during the the London Stock Exchange. The company established in 1855, has period, registering a combined consideration of RMB29.4 a rich heritage with unrivalled city, further highlighting the growth. It is a company that leads billion. rather than follows, and now has over 600 offices and associates value of existing assets. throughout the Americas, Europe, • A total of 28 deals were concluded in 2018, registering a Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East. This report is for general combined consideration of RMB45.3 billion. Institutional investors have informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may jumped on this opportunity it be used as a basis for any • Grade A office capital values registered an average of contract, prospectus, agreement RMB87,476 per sq m by the end of Q4/2018. Meanwhile, or other document without prior and completed many en-bloc consent. Whilst every effort has Grade A office gross reversionary yields tightened by 0.02 of been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability a percentage point (ppt) to 5.12%. transactions in Q4/2018.” whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its JACK XIONG, SAVILLS RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research. savills.com.cn/research 1 Investment and Art Centre in Dongcheng district. The GRAPH 1: First-Hand Strata-Title Office Sales, OFFICE SECTOR office project was acquired from Hong Q1/2014 to Q4/2018 The first-hand strata-title office market received 271,100 sq m of new supply in Kong-listed Hopson Development for a total 30 Q4/2018, down 29.1% QoQ, although up consideration of RMB4.5 billion. 27.9% year-on-year (YoY). Total transaction Pacific Century Place in Chaoyang district 25 area reached 186,300 sq m during the was acquired by Beijing Yuanjing Mingde quarter, up 16.1% QoQ and 88.2% YoY. Management & Consulting Co. from Gaw Capital for a total consideration of RMB10.5 20 Total consideration increased by only 6.7% QoQ to RMB4.45 billion, although it billion. was up significantly YoY at 111.7%. Average Harbour Link Ventures Limited 15 transaction prices dropped by 8.1% QoQ to purchased a 94% equity share in Ocean RMB23,917 per sq m, but were up 12.5% YoY. Office Park in the CBD for RMB5.38 billion. 10 RMB billion Grade A office capital values continued to grow to an average of RMB87,476 per sq LAND MARKET 5 m by the end of Q4/2018. Meanwhile, Grade A total of 28 land plots were transacted in A office gross reversionary yields tightened Q4/2018 for a combined consideration of 0 further by 0.02 of a ppt to 5.12%. RMB76.7 billion, marking a considerable Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 366% QoQ increase, although down 19.1% 14 15 16 17 18 RETAIL SECTOR YoY. A total of 24 new plots were designated Source Savills Research New supply in the first-hand strata-title retail or partially designated for residential market reached 47,000 sq m in Q4/2018, usage, with three commercial plots and one down 41.3% QoQ and 64.8% YoY. Total industrial plot. transaction area decreased by 25.9% QoQ One major transaction during the quarter and 49.7% YoY to 172,000 sq m by the end of saw Beijing North Star Company Limited GRAPH 2: Grade A Office Capital Values And Yield, Q4/2018. acquire a 486,600 sq m commercial-use Q1/2014 to Q4/2018 Total consideration registered RMB5.56 land plot in the core area of Asia-Olympic Capital value (LHS) Gross yield (RHS) billion in Q4/2018, marking a decrease district for RMB8.66 billion. 100,000 15% of 24.8% QoQ and 35% YoY. Average transaction prices registered RMB32,308 per MARKET OUTLOOK sq m, up 1.5% QoQ and 29.2% YoY. Beijing is home to Mainland China’s 80,000 12% most mature real estate market, and has EN-BLOC INVESTMENT MARKET historically seen ROI basically guaranteed. 60,000 9% The en-bloc investment market was largely Urban planning policy in Beijing will limit active in Q4/2018, with a total of seven future supply of commercial assets in deals registering a combined consideration the city, further highlighting the value of 40,000 6% of RMB29.4 billion concluded during the existing assets. RMB per sq m period. Traditional asset classes proved Emerging districts such as Lize and popular during the quarter with deals Tongzhou have great potential for 20,000 3% concluded in both the office and retail development and are expected to be markets. Equity transactions were the most new real estate hotspots. The relocation 0 0% popular deal structure. of Beijing’s Municipal Government to Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Beijing Jingtong Roosevelt Plaza in Tongzhou will greatly benefit the district’s 14 15 16 17 18 Tongzhou district was acquired by Link Real investment market. Lize, an emerging Estate Investment Trust for RMB2.56 billion. financial district, offers huge investment Source Savills Research A joint venture between Hony Capital and potential and has already attracted some AEW purchased the Beijing Oriental Culture buyers. GRAPH 3: First-Hand Strata-Title Retail Sales, TABLE 1: Major First-Hand Strata-Title Office Projects, Q4/2018 Q1/2014 to Q4/2018 GREENLAND INTERNATIONAL HOUSE IN PARK CENTRAL PLAZA CITY 16 14 LOCATION Tongzhou Changping Chaoyang 12 10 Beijing Capital DEVELOPER Greenland Group CRCC Development / Vanke 8 RMB billion RMB 6 TRANSACTION 16,590 20,442 9,783 4 AREA (SQ M) 2 AVERAGE PRICE 0 29,276 20,137 30,112 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 (RMB PER SQ M) 14 15 16 17 18 Source Savills Research Source Savills Research savills.com.cn/research 2 Investment GRAPH 4: En-bloc Investment Volumes, TABLE 2: Major Strata-Title Retail Projects, Q4/2018 2014 to 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FORTE CENTRE VANKE WORLD THE CENTRAL 60 50 LOCATION Tongzhou Daxing Mentougou PROPERTY Residential / Retail Residential / Retail 40 Strata-title retail TYPE podium podium n o i l l i b 30 B DEVELOPER Forte Land Vanke Group Huayuan Group M R 20 TRANSACTION 7,795 10,575 5,235 AREA (SQ M) 10 AVERAGE PRICE 68,066 31,204 50,713 (RMB PER SQ M) 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source Savills Research Source Savills Research GRAPH 5: En-bloc Investment Volumes By TABLE 3: Major En-Bloc Transactions, Q4/2018 Property Type, 2014 to 2018 BEIJING BEIJING PACIFIC JINGTONG ORIENTAL CENTURY OCEAN ROOSEVELT CULTURE & ART PLACE OFFICE PARK Office Retail Serviced apartment Hotel Mixed-use development PLAZA CENTRE Beijing Yuanjing 60 Link Real Estate Hony Capital / Mingde Harbour Link BUYER Investment Trust AEW Management & Ventures Ltd. Consulting 50 Hopson Sino-Ocean ARA Asia Dragon Development Gaw Capital Group Holding SELLER Fund II Ltd. 40 International Ltd. Ltd. LOCATION Tongzhou East 2nd Ring Road Sanlitun CBD 30 RMB billion PURCHASED 55,860 56,160 169,900 108,000 AREA(SQ M) (Retail Area) 20 TRANSACTED PRICE 2,560 4,500 10,500 5,384 10 (RMB MILLION) UNIT PRICE 45,829 80,128 61,800 53,017 (RMB PER SQ M) 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Offshore DEAL Onshore Offshore Equity Offshore Equity Equity Equity Source Savills Research STRUCTURE Transaction Transaction Transaction Transaction (94%) Source Savills Research GRAPH 6: Land Transaction Volumes, 2014 to 2018 TABLE 4: Major Land Transactions , Q4/2018 TOTAL CONSIDERATION Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 PLOT CODE DISTRICT GFA USAGE BUYER (RMB MILLION) 300 (SQ M) Chaoyang Chaoyang 486,596 Commercial 8,663 Beijing North Star 250 2018 – 026 200 Fengtai China Railway Fengtai 163,477 Residential 7,020 2018 – 028 Noble Real Estate 150 BCEG / Beijing Changping Capital RMB billion Changping 327,948 Residential 6,900 2018 – 047 Development / 100 China Resources Fengtai Fengtai 131,841 Residential 5,840 CRCC 50 2018 – 034 Shunyi Beijing Capital 0 2018 – 037 Shunyi 132,950 Residential 4,500 Development / 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Gemdale Source Savills Research Source Savills Research savills.com.cn/research 3.
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