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Steady Growth Prospect, "Buy"

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Steady Growth Prospect, 股 票 esearch 研 Jack Liu 柳晨 Company[Table_Title Report:] China Aoyuan (03883 HK) 究 (852) 2509 2149 Equity R 公司报告： 中国奥园 (03883 HK) [email protected] 26 November 2019 Steady[Table_Summary Growth] Prospect, "Buy" 稳健的增长预期，“买入” Contracted sales is likely to extend its uptrend in 4Q2019. In Jan.-Oct. 2019, 公 [Table_Rank] accumulated contracted sales grew by 31.2% YoY and reached RMB88.62 bn, Rating: Buy 司 achieving 77.7% of the Company’s 2019 sales target. Saleable resources in 2H19 is expected to reach around RMB130 bn, indicating a sell-through rate of 报 评级： 买入 approximately 60% to complete the 2019 sales target. With competitive products 告 across an agglomeration of key urban areas in China and low target sell-through Company Report Company rate, we believe that the Company’s 2019 sales target is achievable. 6[Table_Price]-18m TP 目标价 : HK$13.92 Abundant land bank with low unit land cost is expected to support the Company’s business expansion. As at 30 Jun. 2019, the Company had a total Share price 股价: HK$11.220 land bank GFA of approximately 40.12 million sq.m (attributable: 81%) with an average unit land cost of RMB2,321 per sq.m, representing only 23.0% of ASP in 1H19. Land bank in GBA accounted for 18.8% of its total land bank GFA. Stock performance 证 股价表现 1H19 underlying net profit surged by 86.6% YoY to RMB2,073 mn. The [Table_QuotePic180.0 ] 券 Company’s 1H19 top line soared by 73.2% YoY to RMB23,670 mn in 1H19, % of return 160.0 研 mainly due to increase in both GFA and ASP of the delivered projects. We 140.0 expect underlying net profit in 2019-2021 to reach RMB4,083 mn, RMB6,181 mn 究 120.0 and RMB7,249 mn, respectively. 100.0 报 80.0 The Company has accumulated unbooked revenue of RMB139.0 bn as a result 60.0 告 of robust contracted sales growth in 2016-2019. The unbooked revenue is 40.0 Equity Research Report expected to be recognized in the next two years, indicating a steady growth 20.0 prospect. We set our target price at HK$13.92, representing a 50% discount to 0.0 2019E NAV of HK$27.85 per share, 8.2x 2019 underlying PER and 2.2x 2019 (20.0) Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 PBR. Investment rating is "Buy". Risk factors: lower-than-expected contracted HSI Index China Aoyuan sales, uncertainties of overseas projects and redevelopment projects. 2019 年 4 季度合约销售预计将延续上升势头。2019 年 1 至 10 月合约销售同比增长 31.2%至 [Table_PriceChange] 人民币 886.2 亿元，相当于公司 2019 年全年销售目标的 77.7%。2019 年下半年可售资源将 Change in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 达到约人民币 1,300 亿元，相当于约 60%的去化率即可完成全年的销售目标。基于覆盖中国 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 Abs. % 房 重点城市群的优质产品和较低的目标去化率，我们认为公司可以完成其 2019 年销售目标。 8.9 8.9 134.7 绝对变动 % 告 Rel. % to HS Index 7.7 3.9 132.4 地 大量的土地储备与较低的单位土地成本将支撑公司的业务扩张。截至 2019 年 6 月 30 日，公 相对恒指变动 % Avg. Share price(HK$) 报 司土储总建面达到 万平米（权益比率： ），单位土地成本为每平米人民币 产 4,012 81% 2,321 10.9 9.9 8.4 平均股价（港元） 元，仅相当于公司 2019 年上半年销售均价的 23.0%。大湾区土储占到了总土储建面的 18.8%。 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 行 究 2019 年上半年核心净利同比上升 86.6%至人民币 20.73 亿元。由于交付建面和交付项目的销 Property Sector 业 研 售均价上升，公司 2019 年上半年收入同比上升 73.2%至人民币 236.7 亿元。我们预计 2019 至 2021 年核心净利将分别达到人民币 40.83 亿元，人民币 61.81 亿元和人民币 72.49 亿元。 券 公司受益于 2016-2019 年强劲的合约销售增长，已经累积了约人民币 1,390 亿元的已售未结 证 收入。这些未结转收入预计将于未来两年内结转，显示了较为稳健的增长预期。我们给予公司 13.92 港元的目标价，相较于公司 2019 年每股估值 27.85 港元有 50%的折让，也分别相当于 倍 年核心市盈率及 倍 年市净率。投资评级为 买入 。风险：低于预期的合 8.2 2019 2.2 2019 “ ” 约销售，海外项目和旧改项目存在不确定性。 Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结Profit] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2017A 19,115 1,640 0.613 89.8 15.2 3.794 2.5 0.250 2.7 17.2 中 2018A 31,006 2,409 0.899 46.7 10.9 4.433 2.2 0.360 3.7 21.9 2019F告 52,577 4,324 1.614 79.5 6.2 5.754 1.7 0.643 6.4 31.6 国 2020F 82,151 6,478 2.418 49.8 4.2 7.800 1.3 0.964 9.6 35.5 报 奥 2021F 98,392 7,607 2.839 17.4 3.5 10.248 1.0 1.132 11.3 31.3 园 Shares究 in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 2,690.4 Major shareholder 大股东 Guo Ziwen 55.2% [Table_BaseData] Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 30,078.7 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 44.8 研 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 9,478.5 FY19 Net gearing (%) FY19 净负债/股东资金(%) 146.7 券 China Aoyuan (03883Aoyuan HK) China 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$) 12.140 / 4.510 FY19 Est. NAV (HK$) FY19 每股估值（港元） 27.8 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. 证 Se e the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 9 [Table_PageHeader]China Aoyuan (03883 HK) ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Housing sales growth slightly recovered in Jun.-Oct. 2019 and is likely to maintain its uptrend in Nov.-Dec. 2019. During Jan.-Oct. 2019, commodity housing sales amount and GFA recorded mild recovery, with decline in growth rate only in May. 2019 and Jun. 2019. During the first 10 months in 2019, cumulative commodity house sales amount grew by 7.3% YoY, while cumulative commodity house sales GFA increased by 0.1% YoY. We expect housing sales to continue to grow for the rest of 2019, given that developers have started to accelerate contracted sales in order to accomplish the full-year sales target. Housing sales in lower-tier cites is expected to face more challenges because property sales in lower-tier cities benefited from a large number of shantytown redevelopment programs in the past. In aggregate, we are likely to see some recovery in commodity housing sales. 26 November 2019 Figure 1: Cumulative House Sales Amount in China Figure 2: Cumulative House Sales GFA in China 16,000 50.0% 2,000 35.0% 14,000 45.0% 1,800 30.0% 40.0% 1,600 12,000 25.0% 35.0% 1,400 20.0% 10,000 30.0% 1,200 15.0% 8,000 25.0% 1,000 10.0% 6,000 20.0% 800 15.0% 600 5.0% 4,000 10.0% 400 0.0% 2,000 5.0% 200 -5.0% 0 0.0% 0 -10.0% Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Oct-16 Oct-18 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-17 Jun-19 Jun-16 Jun-18 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Aug-16 Dec-16 Aug-17 Dec-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Dec-18 Dec-16 Aug-17 Dec-17 Dec-18 Aug-19 Aug-16 Aug-18 ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Amount Sold of Commodity Houses (LHS)(RMB bn) GFA Sold of Commodity Houses (LHS) (sq.m. mn) Amount Sold of Residential Houses (LHS) (RMB bn) GFA Sold of Residential Houses (LHS) (sq.m. mn) Amount Sold YTD YoY of Commodity Houses (RHS) GFA Sold of Commodity Houses YTD YoY (RHS) Amount Sold YTD YoY of Residential Houses (RHS) GFA Sold of Residential Houses YTD YoY (RHS) Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. Targeted and tightening policies will be maintained but monetary environment has started to become moderately loose with the recent decline in loan rate. Targeted policies will be maintained to promote the steady and sound development of the property sector. Both CPC political bureau meetings held in Apr. 2019 and Jul. 2019 reaffirmed that: 1) houses should be used for accommodation only and not for investment; 2) local governments must be responsible for the long-term regulation and control of local property markets; 3) local property market policies should be formulated and implemented on a city-by-city basis. In Sep. 2019, the PBOC announced an RRR cut. The PBOC also announced that monthly loan prime rates (LPR) will act as the (03883 HK) guidance for personal housing mortgage rate from 8 Oct. 2019. In Nov. 2019, the 1-year MLF rate declined by 5 bps to 3.25% and the latest 5-year LPR also dropped by 5 bps to 4.80%, indicating a moderately loose monetary environment. We believe it is possible that commercial banks could offer loan products with lower interest rates to both house buyers and developers, thus 中国奥园 benefiting the whole real-estate industry. Figure 3: Key Property Development and Sales Data ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ 30.0% China Aoyuan 22.5% 15.8% 20.0% 17.2% 14.2% 10.3% 8.1% 7.0% 7.7% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 10.1% 10.0% 6.5% 6.9% 1.3% 1.0% 7.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan.-Oct.2019 2019F -10.0% -3.4% -14.0% -15.3% -20.0% -16.3% -30.0% -31.7% -40.0% GFA Newly Started YTD YoY Land Area Sold YTD YoY Investment YTD YoY GFA Sold of Commodity Houses Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International.
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