China / Hong Kong Industry Focus China Property Sector Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 19 Apr 2021 Spotlight on future land supply • Solid sales growth momentum sustained with strong HSI: 28,970 potential to ink another year of record-high sales • Developers poised to meet their 2021 targets ANALYST Jason LAM +852 3668 4179
[email protected] • Future land supply and new starts as keys to watch for Danielle WANG CFA, +852 3668 4176
[email protected] • Sector top picks: Vanke, COLI, CIFI and Logan Ken HE CFA, +86 21 3896 8221
[email protected] Solid performance in 1Q21; strong potential for another year of Ben Wong
[email protected] record-high residential sales. Residential sales in Mar rose 63% y-o-y (or 44% vs Mar-19) on the back of a 38% (or 19% vs Mar- Recommendation & valuation 19) increment in residential GFA sold and 19% (or 21% vs Mar- 19) rise in residential ASP, marking another solid month of FY22F physical market performance. We believe the market is well- Target Price Price Rec Mkt Cap PE poised to post another record-high sales value this year – as it HK$ HK$ US$bn x will likely attain 2020’s level even if the market records a 12.5% y- o-y decline for the remaining nine months. China Overseas Developers well on track to achieve their 2021 targets. Presales 20.15 25.70 BUY 28.4 4.0 (688 HK) growth of 30 listed developers we track on a weighted-average China Vanke 'H' 28.25 45.56 BUY 49.9 5.3 basis remained strong at 47% y-o-y (or +33% vs Mar 2019) in (2202 HK) Mar (Feb-21: 144%), as compared to their c.10% weighted Logan Property 12.50 16.44 BUY 8.9 3.5 average presales target for 2021.