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China Aoyuan Group ADD (No Change) Clarification Should Help to Remove Overhang Consensus Ratings*: Buy 13 Hold 2 Sell 0

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China Aoyuan Group ADD (No Change) Clarification Should Help to Remove Overhang Consensus Ratings*: Buy 13 Hold 2 Sell 0 Company Flash Note Property Development │ Hong Kong │ July 9, 2019 Insert Insert Hong Kong July 9, 2019 - 11:29 PM China Aoyuan Group ADD (no change) Clarification should help to remove overhang Consensus ratings*: Buy 13 Hold 2 Sell 0 Current price: HK$10.62 ■ A mainland blogger had alleged that Aoyuan inflated its 1H19 contracted sales, which is the key reason for the 15% share price drop on Monday. Target price: HK$12.00 Previous target: HK$12.00 ■ We attribute the discrepancy to different definitions of contracted sales, and Up/downside: 13.0% the source quoted by the blogger may not be correct or complete. CGS-CIMB / Consensus: 0.0% ■ Aoyuan provided clarification in an announcement on Monday night. Overall, Reuters: 3883.HK we believe its contracted sales number is reliable. Maintain Add. Bloomberg: 3883 HK Market cap: US$3,656m A blogger alleged that Aoyuan inflated contracted sales HK$28,519m ● On 6 Jul, a blogger called "李树鹏 2003" on Xueqiu (a popular social media platform in Average daily turnover: US$15.21m China for sharing financial news), quoted "EH Consulting" (a third-party information HK$119.2m provider) as saying that based on Aoyuan's contracted sales in Guangdong Province Current shares o/s 2,534m and the proportion of Aoyuan's sales in Guangdong to its national sales, gross Free float: 45.9% *Source: Bloomberg contracted sales in 6M19 were only Rmb25.7bn, rather than the Rmb53.6bn announced by the company on 2 Jul. Key financial forecasts ● The allegation, coupled with weaker sentiment on the sector due to the Future Land Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F founder issue and sharp decline in the overall market, contributed to its share price Net Profit (Rmbm) 3,345 4,613 5,960 falling by as much as 15% to close at HK$10.62, down 8.6% from last Friday’s price. Core EPS (Rmb) 1.25 1.72 2.23 Core EPS Growth 43.1% 37.9% 29.2% Aoyuan made an announcement to clarify the issue FD Core P/E (x) 7.50 5.44 4.21 ● The company announced on the HKEX website (Clarification announcement in respect Recurring ROE 24.3% 25.2% 24.7% of a social media article) late Monday night that it reiterates its contracted sales of P/BV (x) 1.60 1.20 0.92 Rmb53.6bn for 1H19 instead of Rmb25.7bn deduced by the blogger. DPS (Rmb) 0.47 0.65 0.83 ● Meanwhile, it clarified that it has not provided any information to “EH Consulting” or the Dividend Yield 5.00% 6.90% 8.91% author of the above-mentioned article. Reasons for the discrepancy Price Close Relative to HSI (RHS) ● First, the data from EH Consulting may not be correct or complete. 13.3 233 11.3 201 ● Second, the difference may be due to how contracted sales are defined. We suspect 9.3 169 that EH Consulting may only collect data from local government websites which only 7.3 137 5.3 105 include authorised sales endorsed by the local government, while the company 3.3 73 100 classifies contracted sales when the sales and purchase agreement (S&P) is signed 50 and a certain amount of the downpayment is collected. Vol m Vol ● From our calculations based on its balance sheet, Aoyuan’s growth in unbooked sales Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 was largely in line with its contracted sales growth over FY16-18. As such, we believe Source: Bloomberg Aoyuan’s contracted sales figure should be reliable. Price performance 1M 3M 12M ● Meanwhile, the company filed on the HKEX website that the Chairman bought 2m Absolute (%) 15.2 11.2 95.6 shares at an average price of HK$10.72 on Monday. Relative (%) 10.1 17 95.5 ● Overall, we reiterate our Add call on Aoyuan given its strong EPS growth of 40% p.a. over FY19-21F. Our TP of HK$12.0 is based on a 20% discount to NAV. Major shareholders % held Guo Zi Wen 54.1 Figure 1: Aoyuan’s core EPS and yoy growth, based on our forecast Insert 2.50 60% 50% 2.00 40% Analyst(s) 1.50 30% Raymond CHENG, CFA 1.00 T (852) 2539 1324 20% E [email protected] 0.50 Will CHU 10% T (852) 2539 1327 0.00 0% E [email protected] FY17 FY18 FY19F FY20F FY21F Jeffrey MAK Core EPS (Rmb) Core EPS yoy % T (852) 2539 1328 SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS E [email protected] IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. IF THIS REPORT IS DISTRIBUTED IN Powered by the THE UNITED STATES IT IS DISTRIBUTED BY CGS-CIMB SECURITIES (USA), INC. AND IS CONSIDERED THIRD-PARTY AFFILIATED RESEARCH. EFA Platform Property Development │ Hong Kong China Aoyuan Group │ July 9, 2019 Figure 2: Peer comparison Share Disc. to Bloomberg price TP Mkt cap NAV/sh NAV Upside P/E (x) P/BV(x) Yield (%) Net Gearing (%) Company Ticker (HK$) (HK$) Rating (US$ m) (HK$) (%) (%) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2018 2019F 2020F 2018 2019F 2020F 2018 2019F 2020F COLI 688 HK 28.75 33.80 ADD 40,383 37.6 24 18 8.5 7.3 6.6 6.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 3.1 3.5 4.0 32 24 18 CR Land 1109 HK 34.20 37.40 ADD 29,200 41.6 18 9 10.0 8.3 7.1 6.1 1.5 1.3 1.3 3.5 4.2 5.0 34 35 37 China Vanke - H 2202 HK 31.30 34.20 ADD 47,524 38.0 18 9 8.7 7.2 6.2 5.5 2.0 1.6 1.4 3.9 4.6 5.4 31 34 31 CIFI 884 HK 5.44 7.20 ADD 5,496 12.0 55 32 6.6 5.3 4.4 3.9 1.3 1.0 0.8 5.5 6.2 7.3 67 64 46 Country Garden 2007 HK 11.48 9.50 REDUCE 31,879 13.5 15 (17) 6.7 5.6 5.0 4.5 1.8 1.5 1.2 4.8 6.7 7.3 45 44 40 Evergrande 3333 HK 21.95 38.10 ADD 36,943 45.0 51 74 5.2 4.4 3.8 3.4 1.9 1.6 1.3 5.8 7.4 10.3 152 108 82 Greentown 3900 HK 5.83 5.60 REDUCE 1,623 13.9 58 (4) 5.4 4.7 4.4 4.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.5 5.1 5.4 105 101 94 Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 15.66 21.00 ADD 6,469 35.0 55 34 5.1 3.7 2.9 2.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 8.9 10.1 11.1 184 158 138 KWG 1813 HK 8.26 9.60 ADD 3,361 19.2 57 16 7.0 4.8 3.8 3.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 7.7 8.7 10.4 65 59 49 Longfor 960 HK 29.60 40.00 ADD 22,614 40.0 26 35 12.0 9.5 7.8 6.5 1.9 1.7 1.5 3.8 4.7 5.8 53 56 58 Shimao Prop 813 HK 24.00 28.00 ADD 10,158 40.0 40 17 8.3 6.6 5.5 4.7 1.1 0.9 0.8 4.6 5.2 6.0 57 54 51 Sino-Ocean 3377 HK 3.34 3.40 HOLD 3,261 8.5 61 2 12.1 7.0 6.3 5.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 6.4 5.3 5.6 73 73 70 SOHO China 410 HK 2.76 2.60 REDUCE 1,840 5.2 47 (6) 34.7 29.2 22.7 20.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.8 42 42 42 Sunac 1918 HK 37.40 43.20 HOLD 21,286 54.0 31 16 8.6 6.0 4.3 3.5 2.6 2.0 1.6 2.5 4.2 5.8 170 121 81 Yuzhou 1628 HK 3.85 5.60 ADD 2,376 11.2 66 45 4.3 3.8 3.3 2.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 8.3 9.9 11.6 67 67 64 Greater Bay Area (GBA) plays Agile 3383 HK 10.84 15.30 ADD 5,444 25.5 57 41 5.3 4.5 3.8 3.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 9.2 11.7 13.7 79 67 57 China Aoyuan 3883 HK 10.62 12.00 ADD 3,656 15.0 29 13 10.7 7.5 5.4 4.2 2.1 1.6 1.2 3.8 5.5 8.1 59 57 45 Logan Property 3380 HK 12.82 15.00 ADD 9,010 21.4 40 17 8.9 6.8 5.6 4.9 2.3 1.5 1.2 4.7 7.7 9.3 54 54 48 SZ Investment 604 HK 2.91 3.06 HOLD 3,149 6.8 57 5 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 6.1 6.2 6.5 41 39 37 Times China 1233 HK 14.76 21.00 ADD 3,674 30.0 51 42 5.7 4.5 3.6 2.9 1.4 0.9 0.7 5.3 6.6 8.3 63 51 37 GBA average 47 24 7.6 6.2 5.2 4.5 1.4 1.0 0.8 5.8 7.5 9.2 59 53 45 HK-listed developers' average 43 22 7.7 6.1 5.1 4.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 5.4 6.5 7.7 75 67 57 China Vanke - A 000002 CH 29.15 34.40 ADD 47,539 33.1 12 18 9.1 7.6 6.6 5.8 2.1 1.7 1.5 3.7 4.4 5.1 31 34 31 CMSK 001979 CH 21.74 24.90 ADD 25,008 32.0 32 15 11.4 9.4 8.3 7.3 2.5 2.1 1.8 3.6 4.3 4.9 55 54 48 Seazen Holdings 601155 CH 31.12 23.40 REDUCE 10,208 39.0 20 (25) 8.8 6.3 5.0 4.6 2.3 1.8 1.4 4.8 5.2 6.4 35 48 43 Gemdale Corp 600383 CH 12.48 15.60 ADD 8,189 15.1 17 25 7.3 6.4 6.0 N/A 1.2 1.1 1.0 4.8 5.5 5.9 66 50 45 Poly Developments 600048 CH 13.44 15.00 HOLD 23,237 19.2 30 12 8.9 7.0 6.0 5.2 1.3 1.2 1.0 3.7 4.2 5.0 83 76 64 A-share developers' average* 22 9 9.1 7.3 6.4 5.7 1.9 1.6 1.3 4.1 4.7 5.5 54 53 46 Small and mid-cap average 47 17 7.4 5.7 4.8 4.2 1.2 0.9 0.8 6.0 7.1 8.3 73 67 59 Overall average 39 18 8.0 6.3 5.4 4.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 5.1 6.1 7.3 71 64 55 Share price data as of 8 Jul 2019; * A-share data stated in Rmb SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG, COMPANY REPORTS 2 Property Development │ Hong Kong China Aoyuan Group │ July 9, 2019 BY THE NUMBERS Profit & Loss Balance Sheet (Rmbm) Dec-18A Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F (Rmbm) Dec-18A Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Total Net Revenues 31,006 44,408 61,598 77,046 Total Cash And Equivalents 39,622 42,827 49,141 51,944 Gross Profit 9,634 12,476 16,928 20,961 Properties Under Development Operating EBITDA 7,044 8,203 11,145 13,661 Total Debtors 12,274 23,713 30,547 38,101 Depreciation And Amortisation 0 0 0 0 Inventories 115,677 142,047 174,696 213,112 Operating EBIT 7,044 8,203 11,145 13,661 Total Other Current Assets 4,235 4,590 4,976 5,396 Financial Income/(Expense) (445) (547) (592) (638) Total Current Assets 171,808 213,177 259,361 308,553 Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
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