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Three Red Lines” Policy
Real Estate Developers with High Leverage to See Inventory Quality Tested Under Broader “Three Red Lines” Policy October 28, 2020 In our view, the widening of regulations aimed at controlling real estate developers’ interest- ANALYSTS bearing debt would further reduce the industry’s overall credit risk in the long term. However, the nearer term may see less headroom for highly leveraged developers to finance in the capital Xiaoliang Liu, CFA market, pushing them to sell off inventory to ease liquidity pressure. Beijing +86-10-6516-6040 The People’s Bank of China said in September that measures aimed at monitoring the funding [email protected] and financial management of key real estate developers will steadily be expanded. Media reports suggest that the new regulations would see a cap of 15% on annual growth of interest-bearing Jin Wang debt for all property developers. Developers will be assessed against three indicators, which are Beijing called “red lines”: whether asset liability ratios (excluding advance) exceeded 70%; whether net +86-10-6516-6034 gearing ratio exceeded 100%; whether cash to short-term debt ratios went below 1.0. Developers [email protected] which breached all three red lines won’t be allowed to increase their debt. If only one or two of the red lines are breached, such developers would have their interest-bearing debt growth capped at 5% and 10% respectively. The first half of the year saw debt grow rapidly among developers. In a sample of 87 real estate developers that we are monitoring, more than 40% saw their interest-bearing debt grow at a faster rate than 15% year over year as of the end of June (see the chart below). -
Aoyuan International Center Aoyuan Tower(Actual Image) 3 1H2019 Results Highlights
2019 Interim Results Presentation August 2019 1 Contents 1 Highlights & Outlook 3 2 Financial Overview 10 3 Business Operations 17 4 Land Bank Layout 30 5 Appendix 42 6 Investor Relations 48 2 1. Highlights & Outlook Guangzhou Aoyuan International Center Aoyuan Tower(actual image) 3 1H2019 Results highlights • Contracted sales in the first seven months of 2019 maintained robust growth momentum and Robust contracted increased by 30% yoy to RMB60.28bn (attributable: 84%), achieving 53% of the full-year target; sales growth with Aoyuan is named among “Top 30 PRC Developers” high earnings sustainability • 2016-2018 CAGR for contracted sales reached 89%. As of 30 Jun 2019, unbooked revenue amounted to approx. RMB139bn, which will be gradually recognized in the next 2 years • Revenue in 1H2019 increased by 73% yoy to RMB23.67bn • Gross profit increased by 81% yoy to RMB7.05bn; gross profit margin was 29.8% Robust growth & profitability • Net profit increased by 90% yoy to RMB2.80bn; net profit margin was 11.8% • Core net profit increased by 79% yoy to RMB2.49bn; core net profit margin was 10.5% • Basic earnings per share increased by 87% to RMB84.8 cents • Following the upgrades of corporate rating and rating outlook from all 3 major international rating agencies (Fitch, S&P and Moody’s) in 2016-2018, Aoyuan’s rating outlook was further upgraded Healthy financial by Moody’s and S&P to “positive” in Feb and Mar 2019 profile with • Domestic credit rating was upgraded to “AAA”, the highest credit rating in PRC, by United Credit continued credit Ratings in May 2019 rating upgrades & • As of 30 Jun 2019, net gearing ratio was 64.2%, at reasonable industry level; average borrowing sufficient liquidity cost maintained at 7.4%. -
China Aoyuan Group Limited
August 18, 2020 Equity Research China Aoyuan Group Limited Solid 1H20 Results Despite Unprecedented Challenges Aoyuan’s solid 1H20 results should dispel investors’ concerns and drive Stock code: 3883.HK the stock higher, in our view. We find the stock’s valuations of 3.7x 2020E Rating: Buy P/E attractive, especially considering its 2020E 54% YoY earnings Price target (HK$) 14.46 growth is already largely secured by unrecognized sales. We believe Current price (HK$, 14 Aug 2020) 9.66 Aoyuan is on track to achieve its RMB132bn contracted sales target, with Upside/downside % 50% a 45.7% YTD July run-rate. Reiterate Buy. Market cap (HK$ m) 26,110 Market cap (US$ m) 3,369 3.7x 2020E P/E and 9.4% 2020E div yield stock on 54% earnings growth Avg daily turnover (US$ m) 11.71 Aoyuan is trading at distressed valuations of 3.7x 2020E P/E (industry: 5.5x), Source: Bloomberg, AMTD Equity Research in our view, implying an attractive 9.4% 2020E div. yield. We estimate the developer’s 2020E core attributable net profit to grow by 54% YoY to Key forecasts RMB6.4bn. Such earnings growth has been largely secured by its RMB79bn (RMB m) 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e Revenue 50,531 73,156 86,035 98,793 contracted liabilities achieved on 1H20 balance sheet. As of end-July, the yoy % 63.0% 44.8% 17.6% 14.8% developers’ contracted sales YTD run rate has reached 45.7% and we thus Gross Profit 15,021 21,747 24,950 28,650 believe they are on track to achieve its 12% YoY 2020E contracted sales yoy % 55.9% 44.8% 14.7% 14.8% growth target. -
Poly Property Group Co., Limited 保利置業集團有限公司 (Incorporated in Hong Kong with Limited Liability) (Stock Code: 119)
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited and The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited take no responsibility for the contents of this announcement, make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and expressly disclaim any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this announcement. Poly Property Group Co., Limited 保利置業集團有限公司 (Incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability) (Stock code: 119) RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31ST DECEMBER, 2017 RESULTS The directors (the “Directors”) of Poly Property Group Co., Limited (the “Company”) presented the audited consolidated financial statements of the Company and its subsidiaries (the “Group”) for the year ended 31st December, 2017, together with the independent auditor’s report issued by BDO Limited, as follows: – 1 – INDEPENDENT AUDITOR’S REPORT TO THE MEMBERS OF POLY PROPERTY GROUP CO., LIMITED (incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability) Opinion We have audited the consolidated financial statements of Poly Property Group Co., Limited and its subsidiaries (together “the Group”) set out on pages 9 to 120, which comprise the consolidated statement of financial position as at 31st December, 2017, the consolidated statement of profit or loss, the consolidated statement of comprehensive income, the consolidated statement of changes in equity and the consolidated statement of cash flows for the year then ended and notes to the consolidated financial statements, including a summary of significant accounting policies. In our opinion, the consolidated financial statements give a true and fair view of the consolidated financial position of the Group as at 31st December, 2017 and of its consolidated financial performance and its consolidated cash flows for the year then ended in accordance with Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards (“HKFRSs”) issued by the Hong Kong Institute of Certified Public Accountants (“HKICPA”) and have been properly prepared in compliance with the Hong Kong Companies Ordinance. -
Steady Growth Prospect, "Buy"
股 票 esearch 研 Jack Liu 柳晨 Company[Table_Title Report:] China Aoyuan (03883 HK) 究 (852) 2509 2149 Equity R 公司报告: 中国奥园 (03883 HK) [email protected] 26 November 2019 Steady[Table_Summary Growth] Prospect, "Buy" 稳健的增长预期,“买入” Contracted sales is likely to extend its uptrend in 4Q2019. In Jan.-Oct. 2019, 公 [Table_Rank] accumulated contracted sales grew by 31.2% YoY and reached RMB88.62 bn, Rating: Buy 司 achieving 77.7% of the Company’s 2019 sales target. Saleable resources in 2H19 is expected to reach around RMB130 bn, indicating a sell-through rate of 报 评级: 买入 approximately 60% to complete the 2019 sales target. With competitive products 告 across an agglomeration of key urban areas in China and low target sell-through Company Report Company rate, we believe that the Company’s 2019 sales target is achievable. 6[Table_Price]-18m TP 目标价 : HK$13.92 Abundant land bank with low unit land cost is expected to support the Company’s business expansion. As at 30 Jun. 2019, the Company had a total Share price 股价: HK$11.220 land bank GFA of approximately 40.12 million sq.m (attributable: 81%) with an average unit land cost of RMB2,321 per sq.m, representing only 23.0% of ASP in 1H19. Land bank in GBA accounted for 18.8% of its total land bank GFA. Stock performance 证 股价表现 1H19 underlying net profit surged by 86.6% YoY to RMB2,073 mn. The [Table_QuotePic180.0 ] 券 Company’s 1H19 top line soared by 73.2% YoY to RMB23,670 mn in 1H19, % of return 160.0 研 mainly due to increase in both GFA and ASP of the delivered projects. -
China Property Sector
China / Hong Kong Industry Focus China Property Sector Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 19 Apr 2021 Spotlight on future land supply • Solid sales growth momentum sustained with strong HSI: 28,970 potential to ink another year of record-high sales • Developers poised to meet their 2021 targets ANALYST Jason LAM +852 3668 4179 [email protected] • Future land supply and new starts as keys to watch for Danielle WANG CFA, +852 3668 4176 [email protected] • Sector top picks: Vanke, COLI, CIFI and Logan Ken HE CFA, +86 21 3896 8221 [email protected] Solid performance in 1Q21; strong potential for another year of Ben Wong [email protected] record-high residential sales. Residential sales in Mar rose 63% y-o-y (or 44% vs Mar-19) on the back of a 38% (or 19% vs Mar- Recommendation & valuation 19) increment in residential GFA sold and 19% (or 21% vs Mar- 19) rise in residential ASP, marking another solid month of FY22F physical market performance. We believe the market is well- Target Price Price Rec Mkt Cap PE poised to post another record-high sales value this year – as it HK$ HK$ US$bn x will likely attain 2020’s level even if the market records a 12.5% y- o-y decline for the remaining nine months. China Overseas Developers well on track to achieve their 2021 targets. Presales 20.15 25.70 BUY 28.4 4.0 (688 HK) growth of 30 listed developers we track on a weighted-average China Vanke 'H' 28.25 45.56 BUY 49.9 5.3 basis remained strong at 47% y-o-y (or +33% vs Mar 2019) in (2202 HK) Mar (Feb-21: 144%), as compared to their c.10% weighted Logan Property 12.50 16.44 BUY 8.9 3.5 average presales target for 2021. -
Hang Seng Indexes Announces Index Review Results
16 August 2019 Hang Seng Indexes Announces Index Review Results Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (“Hang Seng Indexes”) today announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes for the quarter ended 28 June 2019. All changes will take effect on 9 September 2019 (Monday). 1. Hang Seng Index There is no change to the constituents of the Hang Seng Index. The total number of constituents is fixed at 50. The list of constituents is provided in Appendix 1. 2. Hang Seng China Enterprises Index The following constituent changes will be made to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index. The total number of constituents is fixed at 50. Inclusion: Code Company 151 Want Want China Holdings Ltd. 175 Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. 656 Fosun International Ltd. 966 China Taiping Insurance Holdings Co. Ltd. 1918 Sunac China Holdings Ltd. Removal: Code Company 489 Dongfeng Motor Group Co. Ltd. - H Shares 1359 China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd. - H Shares 2238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. - H Shares 2799 China Huarong Asset Management Co., Ltd. - H Shares 6886 Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. - H Shares The list of constituents is provided in Appendix 2. more… Hang Seng Indexes Announces Index Review Results /2 3. Hang Seng Composite LargeCap & MidCap Index The following constituent changes will be made to the Hang Seng Composite LargeCap & MidCap Index. The total number of constituents will decrease from 304 to 301. Inclusion: Code Company 667 China East Education Holdings Ltd. 1579 Yihai International Holding Ltd. 1717 Ausnutria Dairy Corporation Ltd. 1951 Jinxin Fertility Group Ltd. -
Announcement of Interim Results for the Six Months Ended 30 June 2020
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited and The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited take no responsibility for the contents of this announcement, make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and expressly disclaim any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this announcement. (Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability) (Stock Code: 3883) ANNOUNCEMENT OF INTERIM RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 JUNE 2020 2020 INTERIM RESULTS HIGHLIGHTS • Property contracted sales for the period was RMB50.87 billion. • Revenue for the period was RMB28.24 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 19%. • Gross profit for the period was RMB8.28 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 18%; gross profit margin was 29.3%. • Core net profit for the period Note 1 was RMB2.83 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 14%; core net profit margin was 10.0%. • Core net profit attributable to owners of the Company for the period Note 1 was RMB2.45 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 21%; core net profit attributable to owners of the Company margin was 8.7%. • Basic earnings per share for the period was RMB89.61 cents, and diluted earnings per share for the period was RMB89.51 cents. • Bank balances and cash (including restricted bank deposits and structured deposits) as at 30 June 2020 was RMB69.44 billion, and net gearing ratio was 79.8%. • In the first half of 2020, newly added GFA of approximately 6.95 million sq.m.; total GFA of land bank as at 30 June 2020 was 48.74 million sq.m. -
China Cultural Tourism Group Limited 中國文旅集團有限公司 (The “Company”) (A Company Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with Limited Liability)
The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited and the Securities and Futures Commission take no responsibility for the contents of this Application Proof, make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and expressly disclaim any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this Application Proof. Application Proof of China Cultural Tourism Group Limited 中國文旅集團有限公司 (the “Company”) (a company incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability) WARNING The publication of this Application Proof is required by The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (the “Exchange”) and the Securities and Futures Commission (the “Commission”) solely for the purpose of providing information to the public in Hong Kong. This Application Proof is in draft form. The information contained in it is incomplete and is subject to change which can be material. By viewing this document, you acknowledge, accept and agree with the Company, its sponsor, advisers or members of the underwriting syndicate that: (a) this document is only for the purpose of providing information about the Company to the public in Hong Kong and not for any other purposes. No investment decision should be based on the information contained in this document; (b) the publication of this document or supplemental, revised or replacement pages on the Exchange’s website does not give rise to any obligation of the Company, its sponsor, advisers or members of the underwriting syndicate to proceed with an offering in Hong -
One Core Business with Vertical Development Annual Report 2018 年報 Group Introduction 集團簡介
(Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability) 年報 (於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司) HKEx Stock Code 香港聯交所上市編號:3883 Annual Report 2018 One Core Business with Vertical Development Annual Report 2018 年報 Group Introduction 集團簡介 China Aoyuan Group Limited (“Aoyuan” or the “Company”), together with its subsidiaries (the “Group”) was listed on the main board of The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (the “Stock Exchange”) on 9 October 2007 (Stock Code: 3883), and is a member of Hang Seng Stock Connect Hong Kong Index and Hang Seng Stock Connect Big Bay Area Composite Index. As the pioneer of composite real estate in China, Aoyuan integrated related-themes into real estate development, with an aim to create harmonious and excellent living experience and cultural values for house owners. The Group focuses on Guangdong – Hong Kong – Macao Greater Bay Area, with a strategic layout in South China, East China, core region of Central and Western China and Bohai Rim. Aoyuan’s seven subgroups cover five business segments, including “property development, finance, cultural tourism, healthy life and cross border e-commerce”, and have established a business structure of “one core business with vertical development”. In the future, the Group will adhere to its brand philosophy of “Building a Healthy Lifestyle”, as well as its quality-oriented strategy. The Group is committed to provide customers with high-quality living environment and create a healthy and positive lifestyle, thus setting the trend towards healthy city living. 中國奧園集團股份有限公司(「奧園」或「本公司」)及其附屬公司(「本集團」)於二零零七年十月九 -
Pengyuan Credit Rating (Hong Kong) Co.,Ltd
Property China Credit profiles to improve on lower land acquisitions and solid sales Contents Summary Summary ............................................ 1 Overall policy stance on property industry remains unchanged: we expect the Chinese governments will continue its tight control policies on Property sales ..................................... 2 property industry in 2019 to avoid unwanted overheating in the industry. In Land acquisition .................................. 4 our view, the governments will continue to clamp down the shadow banking financing in the industry and encourage the credit growth through more Property funding ................................. 6 regulated financing channels. On the other hand, with property price under Working capital efficiency ................... 7 control and inventory came off from its peak, a further severe tightening on the industry is unlikely, in our opinion. Industry consolidation ......................... 8 Residential property sales momentum likely to continue but at a slightly Profitability and Cash Flow ................. 9 softer pace: residential property sales value was better than the market Leverage .......................................... 10 expected in the first nine months of 2018, with property sales value rising 16% year over year, according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). We Sampled Property Issuers ................ 11 expect to see residential property sales value to grow around 10-15% in the Glossary ........................................... 13 fourth quarter of 2018, and continue to grow at around 10% in 2019, with 3- 4% growth in sales volume and 5-6% growth in average selling price (ASP). Land acquisitions to slow down further and market sentiment unlikely to rebound: we expect the land acquisition activities to continue slow down noticeably in 2019, with the land sale value to grow at around low teen level over the next 12 months. -
At the Forefront of China Property Dec 31, 2020
December 31, 2020 December Issue At the Forefront of China Property Opportunities emerging in Property Management Sector We believe value is emerging among small cap property management China Property companies. We believe Aoyuan Healthy Life is underappreciated by the Coverage Summary market, especially considering the recent completion of their major M&A Ticker Name Rating 0832.HK Central China Buy of the year (Easy Life). For Property Developers, Powerlong, Yuzhou and 3883.HK China Aoyuan Buy Redsun under our coverage have already achieved >96% of sales target. 1238.HK Powerlong Buy 3662.HK Aoyuan Healthy Life Buy Valuations Diverging among Property Management Companies 9983.HK Central China New Life Buy The flurry of new listings of property management companies in the last 2 0035.HK Far East Buy months have seen a major correction in the property management sector. 0017.HK New World Dev Buy Sector’s valuation has now retreated to 24.5x 12M Fwd P/E, below the 3-year 1996.HK Redsun Buy 1628.HK Yuzhou Buy historical mean. We believe market is struggling to differentiate the value 0095.HK LVGEM Buy proposition of different names and thus been sticking to large cap companies 6111.HK Dafa Hold backed by big name developers. This has resulted in a widening valuation gap 0230.HK Minmetals Hold between large-cap (47.7x P/E) and small-cap companies (19.5x P/E), offering Source: Company data, AMTD Research attractive investment opportunities. Fundamentals of some of these small-cap property management companies are unchanged, and the annual results in 30-city GFA growth momentum declined '000 sqm 30-city 7-day moving sum of GFA sold and YoY March 2021 will be positive catalysts to drive a re-rating, in our view.