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Improving Fundamentals Leading to Decreasing Operating Risk, Maintain "Buy"

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Improving Fundamentals Leading to Decreasing Operating Risk, Maintain 股 票 研 [Table_Title] Van Liu 刘斐凡 Company Report: Evergrande (03333 HK) 究 (86755) 2397 6672 Equity Research 公司报告： 中国恒大 (03333 HK) [email protected] 14 May 2018 Improving[Table_Summary Fundamental] s Leading to Decreasing Operating Risk, Maintain "Buy" 改善的基本面展望降低运营风险，维持“买入” 公 Contracted sales will maintain steady growth due to sufficient saleable [Table_Rank] 司 Rating: Buy resources in wide geographic locations. During Jan.-Apr. 2018, contracted Maintained 报 sales amounted to RMB212.26 bn, increasing by 46.6% YoY, achieving 评级： 买入 (维持) 告 38.6% of its 2018 sales target. As at the end of 2017, the Company had 766 Company Report projects in 228 cities. Total GFA amounted to 312 mn sq.m. We expect a high gross margin level. The Company's unit land cost 6[Table_Price]-18m TP 目标价 : HK$30.17 amounted to RMB1,711 per sq.m., 16.5% of ASP during Jan.-Apr. 2018. Revised from 原目标价: HK$29.60 Gross margin is expected to remain at around 36.8% between 2018 and Share price 股价: HK$25.350 2020. 告 Evergrande’s operating risks should gradually decrease alongside 证 balance sheet enhancement and profitability improvement. This is Stock performance 报 股价表现 券 favorable, especially when the credit environment is tightening up. We expect 究 stable contracted sales growth, an increase in profitability and scale growth [Table_QuotePic] 研 reduction of land reserves. Therefore, the net gearing ratio will gradually 研 究 decrease from 183.7% in 2017 to 81.6% in 2020. 券 报 2017 underlying net profit was in line with expectations. As we revise up 证 underlying net profit, we revise up target price from HK$29.60 to HK$30.17, 告 Equity Research Report which represents a 32% discount to the Company’s revised 2018E NAV of HK$44.36 per share, 9.2x underlying 2018 PER and 2.2x 2018 PBR. We maintain "Buy". Risks: lower-than-expected house sales and listing failure for Evergrande’s property development business on the A-share market. [Tab 由于广阔地域下的充足可售资源，合约销售将维持稳定增长。在 2018 年 1-4 月，合约销 le_I 售达到人民币 2,122.6 亿元，同比增长 46.6%，达成其 2018 年销售目标的 38.6%。在 2017 nfo1 年末，公司在 228 个城市拥有 766 个项目。总建筑面积达到 3.12 亿平米。 ] 我们预期高水准的毛利率。公司的单位土地成本达到人民币 1,711 元每平米，为 2018 年 房 1-4 月合约销售均价的 16.5%。其毛利率将在 2018 到 2020 年维持在 36.8%左右。 Change[Table_PriceChange] in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 地 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 源于资产负债表的增强和盈利改善，中国恒大的运营风险将逐渐降低。这将是受欢迎的， Abs. % 产 (7.3) 12.4 208.4 特别是信贷环境正在收紧。我们预计稳定的合约销售增长，盈利能力的提高和土储规模增 绝对变动 % 行 Rel. % to HS Index 速的减缓。因而，净资产负债率将逐渐从 2017 年末的 183.7%下降至 2020 年的 81.6%。 相对恒指变动 % (9.7) 9.1 183.0 业 Avg. Share price(HK$) 25.2 24.9 23.4 Property Sector 2017 年核心净利符合我们预期。由于我们上调了核心净利，我们将目标价从 29.60 港元上 平均股价（港元） 调至 30.17 港元，相当于较 44.36 港元的 2018 年每股净资产有 32%的折让，也分别相当 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 于 9.2 倍 2018 年核心市盈率和 2.2 倍 2018 年市净率。我们维持“买入”。风险：低于预期 的房屋销售和中国恒大的地产业务在 A 股上市失败。 [Tab [Table_ le_I Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结Profit] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 nfo2 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△ %) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) ] 2016A 211,444 5,091 0.372 (47.8) 61.0 3.233 7.0 0.000 0.0 10.7 2017A 311,022 24,372 1.833 392.7 11.2 8.632 2.4 0.000 0.0 30.7 中 2018F 435,899 38,987 2.871 56.6 7.2 11.322 1.8 1.430 7.0 29.0 国 (03333 HK) (03333 2019F 548,015 50,058 3.686 28.4 5.6 13.579 1.5 1.838 9.0 29.6 恒 2020F 657,796 59,923 4.413 19.7 4.7 16.153 1.3 2.202 10.7 29.7 大 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 13,178.2 Major shareholder 大股东 Hui Ka Yan 77.9% [Table_BaseData] Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 334,067.3 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 22.1 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 18,239.7 FY18 Net gearing (%) FY18 净负债/股东资金 (%) 129.1 Evergrande 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$) 32.500 / 8.060 FY18 Est. NAV (HK$) FY18 每股估值（港元） 44.4 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 8 [Table_PageHeader] Evergrande (03333 HK) Housing sales growth decreased, but strong investments beat market expectations. During Jan.-Mar. 2018, the YoY increase in commodity house sales decreased compared to that during Jan.-Feb. 2018. I] nvestment1 r a sM remainedt h g i strongR _ e andl beatb a T [ market expectations. GFA newly started rebounded during Jan.-Mar. 2018. In addition, saleable areas extended downside momentum. Subsequently, we saw steady fundamentals for the property market. Figure 1: Cumulative House Sales Amount in China Figure 2: Cumulative House Sales GFA in China 16,000 70.0% 1,800 50.0% 14 May 2018 14,000 60.0% 1,600 40.0% 50.0% 1,400 12,000 30.0% 40.0% 1,200 10,000 30.0% 20.0% 1,000 8,000 20.0% 10.0% 800 6,000 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 600 4,000 -10.0% -10.0% 400 2,000 -20.0% 200 -20.0% 0 -30.0% 0 -30.0% 15 17 18 16 14 15 16 17 14 15 16 17 17 15 16 14 16 15 17 15 17 18 16 15 16 14 17 15 16 17 15 17 18 16 14 15 16 17 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Oct Apr Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Mar Mar Mar Mar Sep Nov Sep Sep Nov Nov Sep Nov May May May Amount Sold of Commodity Houses (LHS)(RMB bn) GFA Sold of Commodity Houses (LHS)(sq.m. mn) Amount Sold of Residential Houses (LHS) (RMB bn) GFA Sold of Residential Houses (LHS) (sq.m. mn) Amount Sold YTD YoY of Commodity Houses (RHS) GFA Sold of Commodity Houses (RHS) Amount Sold YTD YoY of Residential Houses (RHS) GFA Sold of Residential Houses (RHS) Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. Source: National Bureau of Statistics] of 2 China,r a GuotaiM t Junanh g i International.R _ e l b a T [ For the policy and monetary environment, the key note of healthy property market maintenance will not change. Currently, we expect a tightening up of monetary environment alongside gradual rate hikes in the US and the beginning of new asset management regulation in China. On 23 Apr. 2018, the Political Bureau Conference of the CPC Central Committee proposed expansion of demand and stability in the property market. Thus, targeted policies will be maintained to promote the steady and sound development of the property sector. We think that commodity housing sales will only experience limited decline. Urbanization, demand from housing replacement and monetization of squatter settlement rebuilding will lead to sustainable housing demand in 2018-2020. Moreover, if the property market starts to slump, the policy and credit environment related to the property sector should ease again to stabilize the property market as per the last round of policy easing which started on 30 Sep. 2014. (03333 HK) Figure 3: Key Property Development and Sales Data 30.0% 中国恒大 20.0% 10.5% 7.7% 13.5% 8.1% 22.5% 15.8% 8.8% 6.5% 10.0% 19.8% 7.0% 8.9% 0.0% 2.0% 17.3% 1.0% 7.5% 0.0% Evergrande 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F -10.0% -10.7% -2.0% -14.0% -7.6% -14.0% -20.0% -7.0% -3.4% -30.0% -31.7% -40.0% GFA Newly Started YTD YoY Land Area Sold YTD YoY Investment YTD YoY GFA Sold of Commodity Houses Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. We expect contracted sales to maintain steady growth due to sufficient saleable resources in wide geographic locations. During 2017, contracted sales amounted to RMB500.96 bn, increasing by 34.2% YoY, achieving its 2017 sales target. The Company's saleable resources fully covered all city tiers. However, policy tightening was only targeted towards cities with overheating property markets, especially higher-tier cities, and policies still support housing sales in lower-tier cities with high amounts of stock. Therefore, the Company's contracted sales are likely to be supported by its sufficient resources in wide Report geographic locations. In addition, the Company’s quality brand and competitive ASP should support its contracted sales as well. During Jan.-Apr. 2018, Evergrande’s contracted sales reached RMB212.26 mn, up 46.6%, achieving 38.6% of its 2018 sales target (RMB 550.00 bn, hinting 9.8% YoY increase). Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 8 [Table_PageHeader] Evergrande (03333 HK) Figure 4: Evergrande’s Sales Records ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ 70.00 12,000 60.00 10,000 50.00 8,000 40.00 6,000 30.00 4,000 14 May 2018 20.00 10.00 2,000 0.00 0 14 16 17 15 18 14 15 17 13 16 13 15 16 14 17 13 14 16 17 15 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov May May May May May Contracted Sales(bn RMB) (LHS) ASP (RMB/sqm.) (RHS) Source: the Company.
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