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China Property Sector China / Hong Kong Industry Focus China Property Sector Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 6 Jan 2020 Quality landbanking is a key factor to pick outperformers HSI: 28,226 • Mid-scale companies to outperform in presales growth in 2020 • Quality landbanking in 2019 is the key factor to ANALYST Danielle WANG CFA, +852 36684176 [email protected] pick potential share price outperformers Ken HE CFA, +86 2138968221 [email protected] • Yuzhou and Times are our top picks; we also like Jason LAM +852 36684179 [email protected] China SCE, COGO, and KWG Mid-caps likely to outperform in presales performance in 2020. The overall market in 2019 was stable with <10% growth in Recommendation & valuation ASP and a flattish GFA growth. Assuming a similar pace of market share gain in 2020 as that in 2019 and a stable overall T arget Mk t F Y21F market, major listcos we track should be able to grow their Price Price Rec Cap PE presales by c.8% in 2020. Based on data compiled by the CRIC HK$ HK$ US$bn x database on top 100 developers’ land acquisition in 11M19, China SCE* 4.68 n.a. NR 2.5 3.6 total land acquisitions declined by 8% y-o-y. Analysing this (1966 HK) further, land acquisitions by the Top 30 declined whereas there COGO 5.40 5.79 BUY 2.4 3.7 was an increase for the Top 31-100. Therefore, we believe (81 HK) growth in 2020 will mainly come from mid/small cap listcos. KWG Property* 10.62 n.a. NR 4.3 4.1 (1813 HK) Fast and quality landbanking in 2019 is a key factor for Times China* 15.50 n.a. NR 3.9 3.3 outperformance in 2020. Rather than to purely rely on (1233 HK) developers’ guidance on presales growth, we went through Yuzhou Properties 4.29 5.09 BUY 2.9 3.5 listcos’ landbanking in 2019 to look for potential outperformers (1628 HK) and found Times (1233 HK), Yuzhou (1628 HK), Evergrande (3333 HK), Yuexiu (123 HK), COGO (81 HK) and KWG (1813 * Consensus HK) purchased a significantly higher amount of land than 2018. Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBS HK”) We believe companies that have allocated more resources into Tier 1/2 cities and key regions of YRD and GBA will likely outperform. These include Yuexiu, Times, KWG, Logan (3380 HK), and COLI (688 HK). Taking into consideration of 2020 earnings visibility and valuation, Yuzhou and Times are our top picks. The sector is now trading at 5.2x FY20F PE, which is in the middle of the 2018-2019 historical 1-year forward PE range of 4.2x and 7.8x. Therefore, we believe there is still decent upside from the current valuation alongside anticipated supportive policy and good 2019 annual results. Among the companies that grew their landbank well in 2019 with high lock-in ratios for 2020 earnings, Yuzhou and Times appears to have the most upsides from their current valuations versus their respective peaks in FY18-19 and thus are our top picks for the sector. We also like COGO, China SCE, and KWG given their decent upsides. ed- JS/ sa-CS / AH Industry Focus China Property Sector Sector Summary 2020 outlook ▪ Land price pushed ▪ Stable ▪ Price cap to remain up price increase ▪ Slight decline ▪ HPR adjustments at local level ▪ Higher mortgage availability in 1Q20 Price V olume Policy Source: DBS HK Page 2 Industry Focus China Property Sector Average Selling Price to trend up Controlling property price is the key incentive behind ASP will continue to trend up alongside higher land cost policy tightening. Property price growth as of Nov 19 was in a comfortable level. Tightening policies were issued in Sep 2017, re-emphasized in Nov 2018 and April 2019. Residential ASP trend in the past years: Land price by city tier Rmb/sm Rmb/sm 10,000 18,000 8% y-o-y 9,500 16,000 growth 9,000 15% 14,000 8,500 12,000 10,000 20% y--o-y 8,000 18% 8,000 growth 7,500 6,000 7,000 4,000 19% 6,500 2,000 17% y-o-y growth 6,000 0 5,500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 5,000 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019YTD 2014 2015 2016 Tier-1 Tier-2 Tier-3 2017 2018 2019 Source: NBS; DBS HK Source: Wind, DBS HK Page 3 Industry Focus China Property Sector Volume to remain stable GFA growth maintained within 5% for over 24 months. We expect a stable full year 2019 sales volume. 11M19 residential GFA sold yoy growth: Residential GFA sold % mn sm 60 1,650 60% 50% 50 1,150 40% 40 30% 30 650 20% 20 10% 150 10 0% 8 0 -350 -10% (10) -20% -19% (20) -850 -30% (30) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E GFA sold (LHS) yoy change (RHS) Jan-08 Oct-19 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Source: NBS, DBS HK Source: NBS, DBS HK Page 4 Industry Focus China Property Sector Short-term supply is picking up due to higher GFA new start and lower sell through, but long-term supply is constrained by land supply Inventory level in key cities picked up slightly remained at Sell through rate declined significantly during Sep and Oct healthy level and recovered slightly towards year end Number of weeks to digest current saleable: Percentage of units sold on the first day of new launches 90.0 100% 80.0 90% 70.0 80% 60.0 70% 60% 50.0 50% 40.0 40% 30.0 30% 20.0 20% 10.0 10% 0.0 0% 4W14 9W15 1W19 Jul-13 Jul-18 32W12 51W12 16W13 35W13 23W14 41W14 27W15 45W15 11W16 29W16 47W16 13W17 31W17 49W17 16W18 34W18 19W19 37W19 Jan-11 Jan-16 Jun-11 Jun-16 Oct-14 Oct-19 Feb-13 Feb-18 Apr-12 Sep-12 Apr-17 Sep-17 Dec-13 Dec-18 Nov-11 Nov-16 Mar-15 Aug-15 May-14 May-19 Average sell through rate 36 wks moving average Inventory (no. of weeks) 26 weeks rolling avg Source: CREIS, DBS HK Source: CREIS, DBS HK GFA sold/new starts ratio: GFA new starts has been higher Land Supply: land supply still at a low level than GFA sold since early 2018 x mn sm 1.30 400 1.20 350 1.10 300 1.00 250 0.90 200 150 0.80 100 0.70 50 0.60 0 Jul Jan 0.50 Jun Feb Oct Apr Sep Dec Nov Mar Aug May 19 - 2014 2015 2016 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Feb-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Oct-16 Oct-17 Feb-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Oct-19 Feb-17 Nov 2017 2018 2019 Source: CREIS, DBS HK Source: NBS, DBS HK Page 5 Industry Focus China Property Sector Demand to stay at current level Stable genuine demand, while investment demand is crucial to support current market scale in 2020. Demand projection based on demographic mn sm 1,800 Total genuine demand Actual transaction 1,600 Projected transaction 1,400 1,200 1,000 Average =1.2bn sm 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Key assumptions First time homebuyers from 20-30 age group Upgrade demand from 30-40 age group Other demand from 40-50 age group Another 25% for investment/speculative demand 32 sm per capita Source: NBS, DBS HK Current survey regarding housing purchase willingness Liquidity is supportive to maintain investment demand % that are planning to buy a house in the next 3 mths Mortgage rate % % 24 8.0 22 7.5 7.0 20 6.5 18 6.0 16 5.5 5.0 14 4.5 12 4.0 10 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 3Q18 1st mortage rate 2nd mortgage rate 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 2Q09 3Q10 3Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 3Q19 Source: CREIS, DBS HK Source: Rong360, DBS HK Page 6 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: CREIS, DBS HK DBS CREIS, Source: Source: M market, in secondary still Most ofcities see ASP increase and market Priceprimary difference between market primary ASP than onmarket seesecondary Only several higher cities China Property Sector Property China In - -1.0% Focus dustry o - M change of secondary market property price in Nov 2019 Nov market price in property ofM secondary change -2.0% CREIS -3.0% HK DBS , -4.0% Jilin Xi'an Jinan Hefei Jining Guilin Hohot Yantai Tianjin Harbin Beijing Ningbo Wuhan Fuzhou Urumqi Xiamen Taiyuan Xuzhou Guiyang Huizhou Luoyang Lanzhou Kunming Ganzhou Shanghai Yinchuan Tangshan Wenzhou Shenyang Zhenzhou Changsha Nanchang Yangzhou Nanchong Quanzhou Chongqing Changchun Shijiazhuang Qinhuangdao secondary marketsecondary RMB 6,000 4,000 marketwhichprimary is a support to 2,000 0 (2,000) (4,000) (6,000) (8,000) (10,000) Jilin Wuxi Xi'an Jinan Hefei Jining Dalian Hohot Xining Tianjin Ningbo Xiamen Nanjing Guiyang Huizhou Qingdao Shanghai Tangshan Zhenzhou Changsha Nanchang Nanchong Chongqing Changchun Page Page 7 Industry Focus China Property Sector Market share consolidation among listcos to continue In 2019, major developers we track gained market share by Similar market share gain will lead to 8% growth in 3ppts their presales growth under no expansion in the overall market Scenario analysis of 23 developers’ presales growth in 2019 Scenario analysis of major developers’ presales growth in 2020 Market share of 23 major developers Market share of major developers 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% -15% -22% -20% -17% -15% -13% -10% -8% -5% -3% -15% -15% -13% -11% -8% -6% -4% -10% -18% -15% -13% -10% -7% -5% -2% 0% 3% -10% -10% -8% -5% -3% -1% 2% -5% -13% -10% -8% -5% -2% 0% 3% 6% 9% -5% -5% -3% 0% 3% 5% 8% grow th 0% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 11% 14% grow th 0% 0% 3% 5% 8% 11% 13% 5% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% Overall market 5% 5% 8% 11% 13% 16% 19% Overall market 10% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 23% 26% 10% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 24% 15% 5% 8% 12% 15% 18% 22% 25% 28% 31% 15% 15% 18% 21% 24% 27% 30% Source: Companies, NBS, DBS HK Source: Companies, NBS, DBS HK Mid-cap developers will likely outperform Top 30-70 saw the highest growth in land banking spending in Top 6-30 bought the largest portion of land
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