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From Insurgent to Incumbent: State Building and Service Provision After Rebel Victory in Civil Wars The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters Citable link http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:40050154 Terms of Use This article was downloaded from Harvard University’s DASH repository, and is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http:// nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of- use#LAA From Insurgent to Incumbent: State Building and Service Provision after Rebel Victory in Civil Wars A dissertation presented by Kai Massey Thaler to The Department of Government in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the subject of Political Science Harvard University Cambridge, Massachusetts May 2018 © 2018 – Kai Massey Thaler All rights reserved. Dissertation Advisor: Kai Massey Thaler Professor Steven Levitsky From Insurgent to Incumbent: State Building and Service Provision after Rebel Victory in Civil Wars ABSTRACT How do rebel organizations govern when they gain control of an internationally recognized state? I advance an organization-level theory, arguing that ideology affects recruitment, socialization of fighters and followers, and group relations with civilians, creating path dependencies that carry over to shape post-victory state building and governance. I code rebel groups on a spectrum between two ideal types: programmatic and opportunistic. More programmatic organizations’ aims extend beyond power to socioeconomic and political transformation, spurring attempts to expand state reach over and through territory and society. More opportunistic organizations are motivated primarily by power and its potential to provide private wealth, uninterested in public goods. I conduct a theory-testing comparison of three victorious rebel organizations, selected for diversity along the programmatic-opportunistic spectrum despite similar national structural conditions before taking power: the FSLN of Nicaragua (more programmatic), the NRA/M of Uganda (middle ground), and the NPFL of Liberia (more opportunistic). Using data from interviews with 127 subjects and extensive archival research from over 16 months of fieldwork, I find strong evidence supporting the theory, validated by further evidence from cases in Angola and Afghanistan. The theory and findings suggest that understanding the state building strategies and policies of victorious rebel organizations requires examining groups’ foundational ideals and practices and how they are institutionalized while opposing the state. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... iii Tables and Figures ........................................................................................................................ v Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ vi Maps ............................................................................................................................................ viii CHAPTER ONE Rebelling and Ruling ..................................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO Explaining State Building after Rebel Victory ............................................................................ 17 CHAPTER THREE Concepts, Measurement, and Case Selection .............................................................................. 54 CHAPTER FOUR From Idealism to Action: The FSLN in Nicaragua ..................................................................... 77 CHAPTER FIVE Predation or State Building? The NPFL's Political-Economic Project in Liberia ..................... 123 CHAPTER SIX For Party or People? Uganda under the NRA/M ....................................................................... 176 CHAPTER SEVEN Discussion and Extensions ......................................................................................................... 234 CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 274 APPENDIX A Fieldwork ................................................................................................................................... 280 APPENDIX B Interviews ................................................................................................................................... 290 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................... 297 iv TABLES AND FIGURES Figure 1 Map of Nicaragua viii Figure 2 Map of Liberia ix Figure 3 Map of Uganda x Figure 4 Map of Angola xi Table 2.1 Alternative Explanations 45 Table 3.1 Cases of Rebel Victory in Civil Wars since 1945 56 Table 3.2 Coding Rebel Group Type 57 Table 3.3 Indicators of State Building and Service Provision 64 Table 4.1. Clearance Rates for Crimes in Nicaragua, 1980-1989 96 Table 4.2 Mortality Indicators in Nicaragua, 1977-1988 103 Table 4.3 Vaccination rate for children younger than 1 year of age in Nicaragua, 1980-1988 104 Table 4.4 Health infrastructure in Nicaragua, 1980-1988 105 Table 4.5 Education spending in Nicaragua, 1978-1988 (millions of córdobas) 111 Table 4.6 Primary Schools by highest grade offered, region & area in Nicaragua, 1978-1988 112 Table 4.7 Educational enrollment in Nicaragua, 1978-1988 113 Table 4.8 Teachers at each education level in Nicaragua, 1978-1987 113 Table 5.1 NPFL Profits 1990-1997 141 Table 5.2 Official Development Assistance to Liberia, 1997-2002 156 Table 6.1 National Resistance Army estimated strength (personnel), 1986-1996 197 Table 6.2 Percentage of Ugandan Population within 5km Radius of Facility Receiving Essential Drugs and Immunization Services, 1992 214 Table 8.1 Cases by Rebel Organizational Type 274 Table B.1 Nicaragua Interviews 290 Table B.2 Liberia Interviews 292 Table B.3 Uganda Interviews 296 v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Far better than finishing this dissertation has been the experience of research and the people that it has allowed me to meet and from whom I have benefitted in countless ways. I am deeply grateful to the many people in Nicaragua, Liberia, and Uganda who were willing to take the time and the mental and emotional energy to share their insights and experiences with me and to put up with many, many questions. Without their knowledge and perspectives, this project would not have been possible. I am grateful to Alex Kendima, Murphy Bella, Kou Gbaintor-Johnson, and Nat Daygbor in Liberia and to Edmundo Jarquín in Nicaragua for their help in finding interlocutors and navigating cities, cultures, and cuisines. Archivists and librarians at the Instituto de Historia de Nicaragua y Centroamérica (IHNCA) in Nicaragua and at the Makerere Institute for Social Research and the Centre for Basic Research in Uganda were invaluable in finding primary and secondary sources, and these institutions provided wonderful bases from which to work. My dissertation committee have been enormously helpful. I could not have asked for a better chair than Steve Levitsky, who has always been willing to meet or provide feedback, pushed me when needed on ideas or deadlines, and is an incredible role model as a teacher. Bob Bates’ appreciation for big questions, deep and wide ranging case knowledge, and no-nonsense approach have made me a better, clearer thinker, and I count myself lucky to have been able to work with him and absorb his expertise through the Political Violence Workshop. Fotini Christia helped me develop a better knowledge of the civil wars literature and its evolution and has always encouraged me to think expand my thinking about framing and research approaches. Melani Cammett has been generous with her time and I am grateful for her insights and the model she provides of engaged scholarship across disciplinary boundaries. Outside of the committee, Elisabeth Jean Wood has been a mentor and a model as a scholar and person since my undergraduate days, and helped set me on the research path that resulted in this project. Jorge Domínguez provided a great deal of useful advice and feedback. At Harvard and MIT, Dara Kay Cohen, Jeff Frieden, Fran Hagopian, Iain Johnston, Josh Kertzer, Gwyneth McClendon, Rich Nielsen, Roger Petersen, and Dustin Tingley have all been particularly helpful and friendly in classes, workshops, and beyond. As even a scholar cannot survive on ideas alone, my dissertation research would not have been possible without generous funding by a Sheldon Traveling Fellowship, the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, and the David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies at Harvard University, and by the Tobin Project. The Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation at Harvard Kennedy School, the Samuel Huntington Dissertation Fellowship at Harvard, and the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation provided crucial writing support. During my time in the field, I have been very lucky to get to know other researchers who have become friends, collaborators, and invaluable resources. In Nicaragua, Eric Mosinger, who has helpfully distracted me from dissertation through both trips to the beach with his family and new writing projects. While we met
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