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Inside Libya Inside Libya REGIONAL PROGRAM POLITICAL DIALOGUE SOUTH MEDITERRANEAN INSIDE LIBYA INSIDE LIBYA February 2021 No°7 WWW.KAS.DE/POLDIMED REGIONAL PROGRAM POLITICAL DIALOGUE SOUTH MEDITERRANEAN FOREWORD The Regional Program Political Dialogue South Mediterranean (PolDiMed) of the Konrad-Ade- nauer-Stiftung (KAS) in cooperation with LIBYA DESK™ is delighted to continue our monthly reports on Libya for 2021. This format examines the most important political, economic and social developments of the previous month, which are of central importance for understanding the situation in Libya. The report is based on reliable Libyan sources and provides a summary and a contextualisation of developments in the wider Libyan context. The report is usually being published every first week of each month. While much attention has been paid to the external and geopolitical dimensions of the situa- tion in Libya, voices from within Libya are central to understanding local developments and the evolution of the Libyan conflict as well as its impact on the wider Mediterranean region. As an inclusive Libyan-led and Libyan-owned mediation with regards to the political, economic and military tracks are without alternative, these monthly reports emphasise the most important events within Libya and aim to give a better picture of what happens “Inside Libya”. INSIDE LIBYA Based on existing KAS-PolDiMed formats such as the Libya Brief and the Libya Task Force, we consider it necessary to shed light on the dynamics within Libya and to emphasise the impor- tance of continuing and facilitating a national dialogue process in the spirit of the UN-led Berlin process. We hope that these monthly reports will give our readers a better picture of the dynamics of the ongoing Libyan conflict, its actors and multiple dimensions. Thomas Volk Director Regional Program Political Dialogue South Mediterranean Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung WWW.KAS.DE/POLDIMED 2 REGIONAL PROGRAM POLITICAL DIALOGUE SOUTH MEDITERRANEAN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. On the first anniversary of the Berlin Conference, Libya’s peace process makes great strides in January with a political breakthrough and encouraging economic talks. 2. As the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) approaches a critical vote to select a new government, Libya enters a make-or-break moment where losers could turn into spoilers and endanger the political process. 3. Constitutional arrangements approved by the House of Representatives (HOR) and High Council of State (HCS) are far from being unanimously accepted in Libya. 4. Despite announcements of technical preparedness, there are many issues that need to be dealt with before Libya goes forward with elections at the end of 2021. 5. Economic stakeholders are awaiting the appointment of the new government to put an end to years of harmful institutional split and manage current crises. 6. Government of National Accord (GNA) officials continue to generate more security agencies and initiatives but offer meagre results in reforming the security sector and reining in militias. INSIDE LIBYA 7. Between a never-ending security campaign in the east and the Libyan Political Dialogue Fo- rum’s protracted process, the Libyan National Army (LNA) is yet to take a clear stance in Libya’s political process. 8. Despite the lack of progress in the exit of mercenaries from Libya and low levels of confi- dence, the ceasefire holds for its third consecutive month. 9. Libya’s energy sector can hardly be insulated from political, operational and security risks as the closure of oil facilities by the Petroleum Facilities Guard demonstrates. 10. The cloud of uncertainty that has enveloped Libya since last year will dissipate in February. The stakes are high and the success of UNSMIL’s efforts will depend on how divisive the LPDF’s result is. WWW.KAS.DE/POLDIMED 3 REGIONAL PROGRAM POLITICAL DIALOGUE SOUTH MEDITERRANEAN CONTENTS Foreword 02 Executive Summary 03 Contents 04 Competition between politicians in Libya intensifies 05 The question of constitutional arrangements 07 The path to elections in Libya, between optimism and constraints 08 Appointment of new government is key for economic reforms 09 The effectiveness of multiplying security campaigns in western Libya 11 The Libyan National Army in limbo 12 INSIDE LIBYA A stagnant but robust security track 13 Libya’s oil sector remains vulnerable to disruptions 14 Conclusion & Forecasts 17 WWW.KAS.DE/POLDIMED 4 REGIONAL PROGRAM POLITICAL DIALOGUE SOUTH MEDITERRANEAN COMPETITION BETWEEN POLITICIANS IN LIBYA INTENSIFIES As the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) approaches a critical vote to select a new government, Libya enters a make-or-break mo- ment where losers could turn into spoilers and endanger the political process. On 19 January, marking the first anniversary of the Berlin Conference, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) announced that the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) members had finally reached an agreement on a selection mechanism to appoint the new transitional go- vernment. This step forward, breaking the deadlock that characterised the final months of 2020, was reached after a four-day meeting in Geneva of the Advisory Committee (AC). The latter, made up of 18 LPDF members, was a last-ditch effort by Acting Special Representative of the Secretary General (ASRSG) Stephanie Williams to reach an agreement on how the LPDF would nominate Libya’s next government. The mechanism brought forward by the AC received a 73% approval rate by the LPDF when a threshold of only 63% was required to pass the selection mechanism. This breakthrough was made possible because the selection mechanism INSIDE LIBYA introduced by the AC combines two mechanisms supported by opposing camps. The first mechanism, being the idea of an electoral college for Tripo- litania, Barqa, and Fezzan, was mainly promoted by House of Representa- tives’ (HOR) Speaker Agila Saleh as it would maximise his chances of being nominated as Presidential Council (PC) head by Barqa’s electoral college. The second mechanism, which works as a fall-back option should the re- gions’ electoral colleges fail to agree by 70% on their own candidate, is a list-based system that was favoured by Libya’s political Islamists, including members of the High Council of State (HCS). Despite reassurances by Wil- liams that UNSMIL was not supporting any candidate, the complexities of the selection mechanism were perceived by a large number of observers to benefit HOR Speaker Agila Saleh and HCS Chairman Khalid al-Mishri in sharing power within the PC, alongside Fathi Bashagha as Prime Minister. However, no LPDF outcome is set in stone as the situation is evolving ra- pidly. Politicians were given a one-week window, ending on 28 January, to submit their candidacies and political dynamics are likely to be in constant flux until the last day of voting on 5 February. On January 30, UNSMIL pu- blished the final list containing 24 candidates for the Presidential Council and 21 candidates for the Prime Ministership. The nomination of Saleh as eastern Libya’s preferred candidate is not yet a given as the HOR Speaker WWW.KAS.DE/POLDIMED 5 REGIONAL PROGRAM POLITICAL DIALOGUE SOUTH MEDITERRANEAN must face several contenders from Barqa, including former General Natio- nal Congress member Sharif al-Wafi and the current Libyan ambassador to Jordan, Mohammed al-Barghathi. In turn, this leaves more options for Kha- lifa Haftar, the Libyan National Army’s (LNA) Field Marshal, to choose from and throw in his support. Equally, many in western Libya scorn at the idea of sharing power with Saleh, a politician who backed the LNA’s recent war on Tripoli. One clear Tripolitanian candidate for a seat at the PC is Major General Osama al-Juwaili, a military officer from Zintan who is known for his hardline positions. Likewise, the position of Prime Minister is not yet reserved for Bashagha, who has been in an alliance of circumstance with the Muslim Brotherhood aligned Justice and Construction Party (JCP). Ad- ditionally, a number of non-Tripolitanian candidates have made themselves known over the last few days — something that could upend the informal understanding that Tripolitania would concede the PC’s main seat to Barqa in order to retain the premiership. The ultimate decision that comes out of the voting session held in Gene- va between 1-5 February will be a make-or-break moment. The final result could not only be targeted by disgruntled parties, but it could also lead to a botched transitional phase whereby those nominated use their new roles to entrench themselves in power well after the 24 December vote. In fact, INSIDE LIBYA there have already been concerns that Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj mi- ght wield his current prerogatives to stay at the top of the government, but overwhelming criticism from within Libya and UNSMIL convinced him not to go forward with such attempts. A great unknown remains the LNA and how it responds to a scenario whereby no loyalist is present within the new government. So far, the LNA has only expressed general support for the LPDF and has not made its position clear as to which candidate it endorses. Fundamentally, the LPDF would have a higher likelihood of success should technocratic candidates come out on top of the nomination process. Their non-political background would underpin a caretaker government whose priority is the organisation of elections and the unification of state institu- tions. This way, the showdown between known politicians would be postpo- ned until elections, when the Libyan people could finally be the arbiter of such ambitions. WWW.KAS.DE/POLDIMED 6 REGIONAL PROGRAM POLITICAL DIALOGUE SOUTH MEDITERRANEAN THE QUESTION OF CONSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS Constitutional arrangements approved by the House of Represen- tatives (HOR) and High Council of State (HCS) are far from being unanimously accepted in Libya. As explained in the fourth issue of Inside Libya, Libya is nearing the 60- days deadline set by the LPDF’s roadmap for the HOR and HCS to agree on constitutional arrangements for upcoming elections and to reach an un- derstanding as to who will unify Libya’s main sovereign institutions.
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