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Governance in North Africa Following the Uprisings in 2011-2012

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Governance in North Africa Following the Uprisings in 2011-2012 GOVERNING UNCERTAINTY: THE FIRST PROVISIONAL ADMINISTRATIONS IN TUNISIA AND LIBYA FOLLOWING THE UPRISINGS IN 2011-2012 By Sabina Henneberg A dissertation submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Baltimore, Maryland February, 2017 Abstract This dissertation examines the actors, institutions and strategies that characterized the first provisional administrations (the governing structures in place from anti-authoritarian uprisings to first elections) in Tunisia and Libya in 2011-2012. It explores two central research questions. First, to what extent are first provisional administrations shaped by pre-existing structures, and to what extent are actors able to shape them? Second, to what extent do first provisional administrations impact the phases of political change that follow them? The results are based on interviews with Tunisians and Libyans and a wide array of secondary sources, including books, journal articles, and reports by international organizations. The dissertation argues that the two first provisional administrations were largely shaped by pre-existing institutions. In addition, the distinct choices made by actors in both— while also constrained by pre-existing institutions—had important effects on later phases of post-authoritarian governance. A comparison of the actors, institutions and strategies of the first provisional administrations in Tunisia and Libya show that, in fact, Libya’s building of democratic institutions was more profoundly challenged than Tunisia’s even before the first transfer of power via the ballot box. Committee members: Dr. Peter Lewis, Dr. William Zartman, Dr. Karim Mezran, Dr. Eva Bellin, and Dr. Jennifer Seely ii Acknowledgments I owe sincere thanks to each member of my dissertation committee: Peter Lewis, William Zartman, Karim Mezran, Eva Bellin, and Jennifer Seely, for their support and guidance. I am truly honored to have had the opportunity to work with such first-rate scholars. The National Security Education Program and the Cosmos Club Foundation helped fund my time in the region. The individuals whom I met while I was in Tunisia were also critical to the development of the dissertation. I sincerely appreciate the time each interviewee spent with me, and especialy those individuals who met with me more than once and provided me with supplementary materials. The time I spent in Tunisia would also not have been the same without my two amazing Arabic teachers, Mohamed Laabidi and Najla Abbes. I also met several other foreign researchers who share my passion for researching North Africa, including Seong-Hwan Kim, Elizabeth Young, Fabio Merone, David Bond, Liz Nugent, and Alex Martin; I am grateful to them to for our conversations and exchanges. Back in the U.S., I have also very fortunate to have had several other teachers and mentors throughout my experience. From the SAIS faculty, these have included Bruce Parrott, Camille Pecastaing, David Kanin, Bridget Welsh, Eammonn Gearon and Mark White. Outside academics who have guided me include Bert Patenaude, Krystyna Von Henneberg, Mary Jane Deeb, and Bob Lee. Kaoutar Mernissi served as my excellent Arabic tutor for a year. I have also learned a tremendous amount from my classmates at SAIS and from other universities, especially the women: Amanda Kerrigan, Jeanne Choi, Lili Diaz, Rachel Salzman, Annelle Shilene, and Jooeun Kim. Miyeon Oh and Kent Davis-Packard have acted as mentors and friends. iii I would also like to extend my thanks to every member of the staff at SAIS, including the janitorial and engineering staff, for always being exceedingly pleasant and helpful. In particular, I am grateful to Jon Youngs, Gabby Roberts Hendy, Isabelle Talpain-Long, and Starr Lee, for their assistance, patience and friendship. I also received invaluable assistance and encouragement from the entire SAIS library staff, especially the reference librarians, notably Linda Carlson, Kate Pickard, Steve Sears, and Jenny Gelman. My deepest, warmest thanks goes to my wonderful community of family and friends. In particular, I am thankful to my brother-in-law Mo and to Chrissy, my sister and best friend. Finally, I would like to thank my parents: my dad, who has consistently shown interest and provided unwavering support, and my mom, the only person who has literally been with me every step of the way, and for whom my love and gratitude cannot be described in words. This dissertation is dedicated to them. iv Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................................ ii Acknowledgments........................................................................................................................... iii List of tables .................................................................................................................................... ix List of acronyms .............................................................................................................................. x Chapter 1: Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 The Problem ................................................................................................................................. 1 Overview .................................................................................................................................. 1 The Events ............................................................................................................................... 1 The Goal of the dissertation ..................................................................................................... 2 Research design ........................................................................................................................... 4 Research questions ................................................................................................................... 4 The Argument .......................................................................................................................... 4 Analytical framework .............................................................................................................. 5 Data collection ....................................................................................................................... 10 Literature review ........................................................................................................................ 11 Literature on political transitions generally ........................................................................... 12 Literature on different types of provisional administrations and what they do ..................... 23 Other key concepts in comparative politics ........................................................................... 30 Summary of the literature ...................................................................................................... 36 Contributions made in this study ............................................................................................... 37 Notes and caveats ....................................................................................................................... 38 Limitations of the study ......................................................................................................... 38 Note on terminology .............................................................................................................. 39 Structure of dissertation ............................................................................................................. 41 Chapter 2: Chronological description of the Tunisian Provisional Administration ....................... 42 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 42 Historical Overview ............................................................................................................... 42 Formation and work of the TPA ................................................................................................ 44 Uprisings of December 17, 2010 - January 14, 2011 ............................................................. 44 v TPA formation ....................................................................................................................... 49 TPA Activities ....................................................................................................................... 58 What happened after .................................................................................................................. 67 Constitution-writing Part 1 (Oct 23, 2011 – July 25, 2013) ................................................... 67 Constitution-writing Part 2 (July 25, 2013 – Jan 27, 2014) ................................................... 73 Summary: Chronology of the TPA ............................................................................................ 74 Chapter 3: Actors, Institutions and Strategies of the Tunisian Provisional Administration .......... 75 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 75 Actors in the TPA .....................................................................................................................
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