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Dissertation DISSERTATION Titel der Dissertation “Historical Origins of the Arab Spring in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya: A Theoretical Analysis” Verfasser Mohamed Alfughi angestrebter akademischer Grad Doktor der Philosophie (Dr.phil.) Wien, Juni 2015 Studienkennzahl lt. Studienblatt: A 784 300 Dissertationsgebiet lt. Studienblatt: Politikwissenschaft Betreuer: Univ.-Prof. Dr. Hans-Georg Heinrich ii Dedication To my parents iii Acknowledgment Timeless gratitude goes first to my supervisor Dr Hans Georg Heinrich for his patience, support and profound supervision, without which the dissertation could not have been produced. Second, my thanks to editors Abigail Rasminsky and Karin Zambra for helping me to bring about this work in a better shape. Lastly also timeless thanks to my friends and colleagues for their support, and profitable feedback. iv Abstract This study is an endeavor towards a structural explanation of the origins of the Arab Spring. In other words, it is an analysis based on the long-term trajectory that led to this climactic event. As to date, most literature is focused on the economic and social factors, which in this study are a controlled variable. As a revisited account of the theory of revolution, the study embarks on the extension of Theda Skocpol’s structural theory of social revolution (1979). Our hypothesis is that the origins of the Arab spring are what I call a political modernization situation in which new trends emerged namely: intellectual current, new organizational framework and international pressure. This may coincide with a rigidity of the ruling elite and a chance of ousting the ruling elite. Through the methodology of comparative historical analysis, the presence of these three con- ditions shall be confirmed. Keywords: Political revolution, political class, ruling elite, political modernization situation, virtue of assabiyya management. v Content Part I: Theoretical Analysis Introduction ................................................................................................. 3 Methodology: Case Study Selection ........................................................................... 3 Theory & Research Question ...................................................................................... 4 Research Method & Data Selection .......................................................................... 10 Study Plan .................................................................................................................. 12 Chapter 1: Understanding Revolutions ..................................................... 14 Understanding vs. Explanation .................................................................................. 14 The Discourse of Revolution ..................................................................................... 18 Classification of Modernization ................................................................................ 21 Theory of Origins of the Political Revolution ........................................................... 25 Part II: The Political Modernization Situation Chapter 2: The New Organizational Framework ...................................... 39 Political Class Structure in the Arab History ............................................................ 39 The First Revolutionary Process& the Organizational Framework: 622-662 ........... 42 The Second & Third Revolutionary Processes: 1923/1950s-2011 ........................... 49 Chapter 3: The Intellectual Current .......................................................... 80 Political legitimacy .................................................................................................... 80 Revolutionary Processes and the Intellectual Current ............................................... 81 Chapter 4: International Pressure ............................................................ 132 Political Formula ..................................................................................................... 132 The Sociology of International Relations ................................................................ 133 The New Differentiation Context: Historical review .............................................. 141 The Case of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) ........................................................... 155 The First Revolutionary Process and the International Pressure: 622-662 A.D...... 161 The Second Revolutionary Process and the International Pressure: 1923-1950s ... 161 The Third Revolutionary process and International Pressure: 2011-present .......... 162 Part III: The Revolutionary Situation vi Chapter 5: The Rigidity of the Ruling Elite and the Chance of Ousting the Ruling Elite (Breakthrough in the Assabiyya) ........................................ 166 The Existence of the Political Modernization Situation in the Arab Region .......... 166 The Rigidity of Ruling Elite & the Chance of Being Ousted: “Positive & Negative Cases” ...................................................................................................................... 167 The Necessity for a Creative Statesmanship: The Virtue of Assabiyya Management175 Main Findings and Counter Arguments .................................................................. 179 Conclusion ............................................................................................... 194 Bibliography: ........................................................................................... 198 Appendix ................................................................................................. 212 (Documents in German) .......................................................................................... 212 Part I: A Theoretical Analysis 2 3 Introduction In 2011, a political earthquake hit a number of Arab countries. This event became known as the Arab Spring. Regardless of the terminology, the concern of this study is to trace the origins of the Arab Spring. Arab experts in the mainstream media still debate the phenomenon, as do a host of books and articles written by major think tanks and university professors across the world. What went wrong for these Arab regimes? What led to this political violence? What are the causes of the uprising? To approach this climactic turn in the Arab’s history, this study will attempt to shed light on what Pauls Pierson calls “politics in time.”1 In other words, long-term origins and causes will be addressed in order to develop a deeper understanding. My objective is to provide a historical comparative analysis by tracing the long process that led to this crucial moment. Most literature written on the subject focuses on the mobilization angle, namely the populist and the young generation participation, medium-range causes and economy-oriented causes. Moreover, the literature at hand, mostly written by journalists, does not take into consideration the theoretical literature on political decay theory, modernization theory, or the theory of revolution. Therefore the task of this study is to advance an analysis that is based on the literature of these theories. Methodology: Case Study Selection I will be examining Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. These countries were chosen because they were the first to experience the Arab Spring, and are the most similar in terms of regime. In addition, they share the same outcome: a toppled ruling elite and a change in the political class (these I will refer to as “positive cases”). “Negative cases” are those in which the ruling elite was not toppled or the political class did not change, as in the cases of the Gulf states, Algeria. The positive cases will be dealt with 1 See Paul Pierson’s Politics in Time: History, Institutions, and Social Analysis. 4 throughout the study where necessary, whilst the negative cases will be brought out as counterfactuals in the last chapter. Theory & Research Question Sharing the stand with the prominent Tunisian philosopher, Abu Yarub Marzouki, the author will be confined to the concept of the Arab political revolution, not revolutions. This is because the Arab states share one cultural identity. Thus the author considers the Arab Spring a singular revolution that happened in more than one country. Speaking of revolutions, the author furthermore considers the Arab Spring a political revolution, and not a social one. Social revolutions, like the French, Russian and Chinese revolutions, experience a change in the social class that holds power. This was not the case in the Arab political revolution. The Arab Spring only witnessed a change in the political class. In her book, States and Social Revolutions, Theda Skocpol listed three factors that cause those revolutions inter alia: inter-elite conflict, which paves the way for another social class; new organizational framework; and international pressure.2 The inter-elite conflict is between the elite in government and the economic and social elite outside the government. Skocpol argues that the new organizational framework is a mobilization vehicle, like the vanguard party during the Russian revolution. The international pressure is the pressure generated by the military, as well as by economic competition among states, that exerts pressure on the state under study. Such competition creates pressure on the elite to either modernize or face the risk of revolt and insurrection.3 These conditions could be applied on the Arab political revolution, but with slight changes and additions. The concept of “the elite” in this study will have another connotation.
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