Chapter 3 Runway Incursions
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POLITECNICO DI TORINO Master’s Degree in Aerospace Engineering Master’s Degree Thesis Analysis of an Aeronautical Database and Correlation with Single Pilot Operations Supervisors Candidate Prof. Giorgio GUGLIERI Luigi RUSSO S266152 Dr. Beatrice CONTI Dr. Teodor ROCI Academic Year 2020/2021 Abstract The aim of the present master thesis is to conduct an analysis of the prob- lem of Runaway Incursions as a compromising element for the introduction of Single Pilot Operations (SiPO), also posing a major threat to flight safety around the world, especially in small airports. All the topics are going to be contextualized in the modern COVID-19 situation. Most of the data used for statistical purposes have been provided by ENAC through the eE-MOR database. Single Pilot Operations and Reduced Crew Operations are considered, by emphasizing the advantages and disadvantages and by describing the opposite reasons towards or against SiPO. Different solutions that might be applied in the following years in order to mitigate risks and increase safety are also going to be shown. Finally, the thesis analyses as a case study a relevant aviation incident in Italy, the 2001 Milano Linate Airport disaster, which caused the death of 118 people. The causes of this accident are described, with big emphasis on how the disaster could have been avoided and possible countermeasures. i Acknowledgements A Paolo, Margherita e Gennaro, colonne portanti della mia vita. A Paola per aver condiviso con me gioie e difficoltà di questo percorso. A parenti e amici che sono stati al mio fianco in questi anni. Grazie. ii Table of Contents List of Tables vi List of Figures vii Acronyms xi 1 Introduction 1 2 Towards Single Pilot Operations 4 2.1 State of art...........................4 2.1.1 CRM Crew Resource Management..........4 2.1.2 MCC Multi Crew Coordination............5 2.2 Pilot Incapacitation.......................7 2.3 Future trend........................... 11 2.3.1 Extended Minimum Crew Operations......... 12 2.3.2 Single Pilot Operations................. 12 2.3.3 Against SiPOs...................... 26 3 Runway incursions 31 3.1 Introduction to Runway Incursions.............. 31 3.1.1 Detailed causes of RI.................. 32 3.2 Runway Incursions classification................ 35 3.2.1 Accident & Incident Severity Definition........ 36 3.2.2 Accident & Incident Frequency Definition...... 37 3.3 ENAC Database Analysis................... 37 3.4 Defending against Runway Incursions............. 41 4 Milano Linate disaster 50 4.1 Milano Linate airport description............... 50 iv 4.2 Event description........................ 53 4.2.1 The impact....................... 53 4.3 Causes.............................. 54 Conclusions and further research 56 A ICAO ATC communications 57 Bibliography 59 v List of Tables 3.1 Severity classification for Runway Incursions......... 35 3.2 Severity classification...................... 36 3.3 Frequency classification..................... 37 vi List of Figures 1.1 Traffic trend in Europe (EUROCONTROL).........1 1.2 Techniques to improve resilience................2 2.1 SHELL (source: Skybrary)...................5 2.2 Division of the cockpit crew according MCC.........6 2.3 MCC structure.........................7 2.4 Total number of Pilot Incapacitations from year 2014 to 2020 (source: ENAC).........................9 2.5 Consequences after a pilot incapacitation........... 10 2.6 Computer based Helios 522 Scenario............. 10 2.7 Transportation comparison in 2016 (source: JACDEC). Deaths by billion kilometers travelled in Europe........... 11 2.8 Crew costs vs Number of seats (source: Aviation Daily)... 14 2.9 Conventional vs. single-pilot operations (source: [7])..... 14 2.10 Taxonomy for SiPO (source: [7])................ 15 2.11 Capt - Nominal conditions................... 17 2.12 FO - Nominal conditions.................... 17 2.13 Pilots - Off-Nominal conditions................ 17 2.14 Likert-Type Rating Scale for Safety Effect (source: [7])... 18 2.15 Perceived Safety of RCO compared to Dual Crew...... 19 2.16 Perceived Safety of SiPO compared to Two- Crew...... 19 2.17 Perceived Acceptability of SiPO compared to Two- Crew.. 19 2.18 Airline Operations Center (source: [7])............ 22 2.19 Examples of ground operator unit structures (source: [7]).. 24 2.20 Automation vs Number of ground operators (source: [7]).. 25 2.21 Differences between AIs (source: [11])............. 27 2.22 Costs for airlines (ALPA) (source: [11])............ 28 vii 2.23 Public opinion on where the government should prioritize investments (source: Ipsos)................... 29 2.24 Percent of those polled who replied to the question “Would you fly on a pilotless plane if the airfare was 10, 20, 30% cheaper?” (source: Ipsos)................... 29 2.25 Public opinion on the best defense against emergency in flight. (source: Ipsos)......................... 29 3.1 Where is the hold position line? (source: [14])........ 33 3.2 Example of a closed runway (source: [14]).......... 33 3.3 Example of an intersection (source: [14])........... 33 3.4 RWY Incursions - Different scenarios............. 34 3.5 Number of reports for RI caused by Aircrafts from 2015-2020 (ENAC).............................. 38 3.6 Number of reports for RI caused by Persons from 2015-2020 (ENAC).............................. 38 3.7 Number of reports for RI caused by Vehicles from 2015-2020 (ENAC).............................. 38 3.8 ENAC Database on RWY incursions reporting........ 39 3.9 Number of events vs year. Note the exponential trend.... 41 3.10 Number of movements vs year. Note the linear trend..... 41 3.11 Number of events vs year (included 2020)........... 41 3.12 Number of movements vs year (included 2020)........ 41 3.13 Lights and associated meaning. (source: [24])........ 44 3.14 RI defence architecture source: [13]. The primary input to the system is provided by sensors and traffic information services and is input from Air Traffic Controller (ATCO) and pilots via a Human Machine Interface(HMI). From this information, the system assesses the traffic situation and provides warnings or alerts to pilots and ATCOs via air field lighting signals or HMIs............................... 46 3.15 SMAAS - source: [22]...................... 47 3.16 Visualisation of Traffic, FMS-selected RWY and assigned taxi route.source:[22]......................... 48 3.17 Integrated representation of closed runways and taxiways. source:[22]............................ 48 4.1 Milano Linate airport description (ICAO).......... 51 viii 4.2 West Apron - AIP Italy (not in scale)............. 52 4.3 R5-R6 Branching in West Apron............... 52 4.4 Conditions of some signs in Linate - Original old picture by ANSV.............................. 55 ix Acronyms ACARS Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System AGI Artificial general intelligence AIP Aeronautical Information Publication ALPA Air Line Pilot Association ANSP Air Navigation Service Provider ARIWS Autonomous Runway Incursion Warning Systems CAT Commercial Air Transport CRM Crew Resource Management EASA European Aviation Safety Agency eE-MOR electronic ENAC - Mandatory Occurrence Reporting xi eMCO Extended Minimum Crew Operations ENAC Ente Nazionale per l’Aviazione Civile ESARRs EUROCONTROL Safety Regulatory Requirements EUROCONTROL European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation FAA Federal Aviation Administration FDR Flight Data Record HGO Hybrid Ground Operator MCC Multi Crew Coordination PF Pilot Flying PNF Pilot Non Flying RI Runway Incursions RST Runway Safety Team xii RVR Runway visual range RWSL Wunway Status Lights SA Situation Awareness SMAAS Surface Movement Awareness and Alerting System SiPO Single Pilot Operations TWY Taxiway xiii Chapter 1 Introduction COVID-19 pandemic has deeply affected the aviation industry. The restric- tions on travel imposed by governments, together with the lack of confidence among travellers has forced many companies to cancel flights all around the world. According to the EUROCONTROL, which is the European organization in charge of guaranteeing a safe and seamless air traffic management in Europe, we have witnessed a huge decrease in air traffic going from about -90% in April to the -55% in September [1]. This drop resulted in more than 5 million fewer flights with catastrophic consequences on the aviation market. Figure 1.1: Traffic trend in Europe (EUROCONTROL) The aforementioned organization forecasts that if the states will remain uncoordinated in their response to cross-border air travel, and the passenger 1 Introduction demand remains extremely low as a result of COVID-19 uncertainty, there will, in Europe, potentially be a total loss of revenues for airlines, airports and ANSPs of approximately €140 billion during 2020. The COVID pandemic has not only affected this field from a financial point of view, but poses new challenges that the aviation industry has to overcome in order to restart the air travels system. The latter is indeed highly interconnected, sophisticated and merges people and technology. This means that the consequences of shut-down and restart are not completely predictable. Thus the resilience of the aviation system needs to be improved. Organisations will need to prepare good strategies for communications and decision making, using expertise, information and good internal and external coordination. A possible strategy is shown in 1.2. Figure 1.2: Techniques to improve resilience In order to identify safety issues affecting commercial aviation during and after the return to service, EASA