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Oleds and E-PAPER Disruptive Potential for the European Display Industry

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Oleds and E-PAPER Disruptive Potential for the European Display Industry OLEDs AND E-PAPER Disruptive potential for the European display industry Authors: Simon Forge and Colin Blackman Editor: Sven Lindmark EUR 23989 EN - 2009 The mission of the JRC-IPTS is to provide customer-driven support to the EU policy- making process by developing science-based responses to policy challenges that have both a socio-economic as well as a scientific/technological dimension. European Commission Joint Research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies Contact information Address: Edificio Expo. c/ Inca Garcilaso, 3. E-41092 Seville (Spain) E-mail: [email protected] Tel.: +34 954488318 Fax: +34 954488300 http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu Legal Notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this publication. Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union Freephone number (*): 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (*) Certain mobile telephone operators do not allow access to 00 800 numbers or these calls may be billed. A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server http://europa.eu/ JRC 51739 EUR 23989 EN ISBN 978-92-79-13421-0 ISSN 1018-5593 DOI 10.2791/28548 Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities © European Communities, 2009 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged Printed in Spain PREFACE Information and Communication Technology (ICT) markets are exposed to a more rapid cycle of innovation and obsolescence than most other industries. In order to avoid losing market share to competitors in commodity markets, ICT companies have to sustain rapid innovation cycles. As a consequence, the competitiveness of the European industry in this sector must pay attention to emerging and potentially disruptive technologies. In this context, the Directorate-General for Enterprise and Industry (DG ENTR) and the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS)1 have launched a series of studies to analyse prospects of success for European ICT industries in the face of technological and market innovations.2 These studies, under the common acronym "COMPLETE"3, aim to gain a better understanding of the ICT areas in which it would be important for the EU industry to remain, or become, competitive in the near future, and to assess the likely conditions for success. Each of the "emerging" technologies (or families of technologies) selected for study are expected to have a potential disruptive impact on business models and market structures. By their nature, such characteristics generate a moving target whose definition, observation, measurement and assessment precludes the use of classical well-established methodologies. The prospective dimension of each study becomes an intrinsic challenge that is to be solved on a case-by-case basis using a mix of techniques to establish lead-market data through desk research, expert group discussions, company case analysis and market database construction. These are then combined with a strong reflection on ways and means to assess future competitiveness of the corresponding industries. At the same time these characteristics result in reports that are uniquely important for policy-makers. The collection of COMPLETE studies illustrates, and each in their own right, that European companies are active on many fronts of emerging and disruptive ICT technologies and are active in the supply to the market with relevant products and services. Nevertheless, the studies also show that the creation and growth of high tech companies is still very complex and difficult in Europe, and too many economic opportunities seem to escape from European initiative and ownership. COMPLETE helps to illustrate some of the difficulties experienced in different segments of the ICT industry and some of the anguishes of growing global players from the ground up. Hopefully, COMPLETE will contribute to a better understanding of opportunities and help shape better market conditions (financial, labour and product markets) to sustain European competitiveness and economic growth. The present report reflects the findings of the JRC-IPTS study related to Display Technologies (OLEDs and Electronic Paper). The report starts by introducing the technologies, their characteristics, early market diffusion and potential industrial impact, before moving to an analysis in terms of the contribution to the competitiveness of the European ICT industry. The report concludes that both OLEDs and ePaper are both potentially disruptive, thus offering opportunities for the European industry to strengthen its position in the growing displays market. European strengths include its capacity in R&D, bulk materials and process equipment. It is weak in however complete display and/or device production. Nevertheless, if 1 IPTS is one of the seven research institutes of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC). 2 This report is one out of a series, part of the umbrella multiannual project COMPLETE, co-financed by DG ENTR and JRC/IPTS for the period 2007-2010 (Administrative Arrangement ref. 30667-2007-07//SI2.472632) 3 Competitiveness by Leveraging Emerging Technologies Economically i the EU industry concentrates in participating in the value chain, not hoping to dominate it end-to-end, then it can be a significant player in those mentioned segments as well in content distribution and new product design for some ePaper applications. Although it is not emphasised in this report, it is worth noting that public funded research has played a significant role in establishing a critical mass of experience and technological capacity in the course of developing these potentially disruptive technologies. Specific R&D funding to the area of OLAE (Organic & Large Area Electronics) amounts to some € 300-400 million over the past 5 years with some 60% contributed from national research programmes (most significant being from the UK and Germany) country1 and) and some 40% from EU (FP6 & FP7). David Broster Head of the Information Society Unit JRC IPTS TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE................................................................................................................................. I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................................................. VII CHAPTER 1. THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW DISPLAY TECHNOLOGIES................. 1 1.1. CONTEXT, OBJECTIVES AND APPROACH TO ASSESSMENT ............................................ 1 1.2. THE TECHNICAL CONTEXT – A BRIEF SUMMARY ......................................................... 3 1.2.1. The current market dominator – liquid crystal displays (LCD)............................. 3 1.2.2. The plasma display panel (PDP) – how it works, and its disadvantages .............. 4 1.3. DEFINING THE TECHNOLOGIES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS........................................... 5 1.3.1. Definition of OLEDs............................................................................................... 5 1.3.2. Definition of e-paper .............................................................................................. 6 1.3.3. Comparing OLEDs, e-paper and LCD .................................................................. 7 1.4. CURRENT STATE-OF-THE-ART OF THE TWO TECHNOLOGIES ...................................... 10 1.4.1. OLEDs.................................................................................................................. 10 1.4.2. E-paper displays................................................................................................... 13 1.4.3. The key e-paper applications ............................................................................... 16 1.5. THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK – A CYCLICAL INDUSTRY ............................................ 16 CHAPTER 2. THE MARKET FOR OLEDS AND E-PAPER....................................... 18 2.1. MARKET FORECASTS FOR MAJOR APPLICATION AREAS ............................................. 18 2.1.1. Introduction.......................................................................................................... 18 2.1.2. Television screens ................................................................................................ 19 2.1.3. IT Monitors........................................................................................................... 22 2.1.4. E-paper: e-publishing, e-books and e-readers..................................................... 22 2.1.5. Mobile handsets.................................................................................................... 23 2.1.6. Lighting ................................................................................................................ 24 2.1.7. Road vehicles........................................................................................................ 24 2.1.8. Medical................................................................................................................. 25 2.1.9. Advertising and public displays, permanent and exhibition ................................ 25 2.1.10. Retail and banking ............................................................................................ 26 2.1.11. Military ............................................................................................................. 26 2.2. THE DISPLAY SECTOR
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