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First Edition dfd Monday, 13 May 2013 (First Edition) Japan Daily Featured stocks Top of the Pack Price TP Upside Nissan Motor (7201) OUTPERFORM TP ¥1,150 Takahashi Rating 10 May TP FY3/13 results: when will "surplus" cash be returned to shareholders? Results Panasonic 6752 Corporation O 749 750 0.1% FOCUS LIST STOCK Square Enix Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802) OUTPERFORM TP ¥1,500 Okumoto/ Yamada 9684 Holdings O 1240 1450 16.9% Potential OP upside of ¥50bn; margin deterioration unlikely amid rising production Results 6501 Hitachi N 645 510 -20.9% FOCUS LIST STOCK Dainippon Screen 7735 Mfg. N 536 510 -4.9% Square Enix Holdings (9684) Neutral->OUTPERFORM TP ¥1,150->¥1,450 Tsuchiya Nippon Telegraph Announcement of additional structural reforms should mark the end of bad news Upgrade Rating 9432 and Telephone O 5080 4700 -7.5% Yakult Honsha (2267) Underperform-> NEUTRAL TP ¥2,700->¥4,100 Kawasaki/Yamate Konica Minolta Upgrade to NEUTRAL; Positive on better cost awareness Upgrade Rating 4902 Holdings N 759 650 -14.4% 3659 NEXON O 1192 1300 9.1% Technology 6640 Dai-ichi Seiko N 1548 1300 -16.0% Panasonic Corporation (6752) OUTPERFORM TP ¥750 Tsuchiya 7915 Nissha Printing N 2186 1660 -24.1% Prospects for bringing forward restructuring positive Results 7201 Nissan Motor Co. O 1063 1150 8.2% Square Enix Holdings (9684) Neutral->OUTPERFORM TP ¥1,150->¥1,450 Tsuchiya 6141 Mori Seiki U 1267 900 -29.0% Announcement of additional structural reforms should mark the end of bad news Upgrade Rating 6471 NSK O 873 800 -8.4% 6326 Kubota U 1434 1150 -19.8% Hitachi (6501) NEUTRAL TP ¥510 Maekawa/ Fukumoto 6268 Nabtesco Corp N 2457 1650 -32.8% Little prospect of organic growth, Smart Transformation-driven profit expansion Results 2229 Calbee N 9490 7300 -23.1% Dainippon Screen Mfg. (7735) NEUTRAL TP ¥510 Maekawa/ Fukumoto 2267 Yakult Honsha N 4480 4100 -8.5% Guidance reflects less bullish expectations of 2H memory investment rebound than at peers Results Dainippon 4506 Sumitomo Pharma U 1786 980 -45.1% Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (9432) OUTPERFORM TP ¥4,700 Hayakawa 4507 Shionogi N 2189 1700 -22.3% Honoring commitments Results 4540 Tsumura & Co O 3225 3800 17.8% Konica Minolta (4902) NEUTRAL TP ¥650 Yoshida Taisho Cost reductions in office equipment business to be key Results Pharmaceutical 4581 Holdings N 7380 6300 -14.6% NEXON(3659) OUTPERFORM TP ¥1,300 Nakayasu Isetan Mitsukoshi Online games strong; await unlocking potential in mobile platform Results 3099 Holdings U 1553 740 -52.4% Dai-ichi Seiko (6640) NEUTRAL [V] TP ¥1,300 Ohya/ Kanemoto 2651 Lawson N 7720 7200 -6.7% 1Q FY12/13 results: operating rates remain low at domestic plants; positives still lacking Results 3382 Seven & i Holdings O 3840 4300 12.0% 8028 FamilyMart O 4575 5000 9.3% Nissha Printing (7915) NEUTRAL TP ¥1,660 Ohya/ Kanemoto 8804 Tokyo Tatemono O 903 1400 55.0% Risk of dependence on major clients comes to the surface Results Daiwa House 1925 Industry O 2204 2400 8.9% Capital Goods 3402 Toray Industries O 711 610 -14.2% Nissan Motor (7201) OUTPERFORM TP ¥1,150 Takahashi 4042 Tosoh U 382 280 -26.7% FY3/13 results: when will "surplus" cash be returned to shareholders? Results 4183 Mitsui Chemicals U 234 210 -10.3% FOCUS LIST STOCK Sumitomo Electric Mori Seiki (6141) UNDERPERFORM TP ¥900 Kuroda/ Zhao 5802 Industries O 1397 1500 7.4% FY3/13 results: Negative impression; valuations look high Results 5707 Toho Zinc N 381 460 20.7% NSK (6471) OUTPERFORM TP ¥800 Kuroda/ Zhao FY3/13 results: Focus now on new medium-term business plan due out 15 May Results Kubota (6326) UNDERPERFORM TP ¥1.150 Kuroda/ Zhao FY3/13 results: More positive than expected Results Nabtesco Corporation (6268) NEUTRAL TP ¥1,650 Kuroda/ Zhao FY3/13 results: Guidance premised on recovery in 2H Results Japan Research Calbee (2229) NEUTRAL TP ¥7,300 Kawasaki/Yamate FY3/13 results: Bullish profit guidance Results Yakult Honsha (2267) Underperform-> NEUTRAL TP ¥2,700->¥4,100 Kawasaki/Yamate Upgrade to NEUTRAL; Positive on better cost awareness Upgrade Rating Pharma sector (MARKETWEIGHT) Sakai Results and briefings: Tsumura, Dainippon Sumitomo, Shionogi, Taisho Pharmaceutical Results DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, INFORMATION ON TRADE ALERTS, ANALYST MODEL PORTFOLIOS AND THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit www.credit-suisse.com /researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION™ Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access Monday, 13 May2013 Japan Daily Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings (3099) UNDERPERFORM TP ¥740 Yamate/ Yamada Results reveal unrealized losses in place of unrealized gains Results Convenience store flash report (Apr 2013) (MARKET WEIGHT) Yamate/ Yamada Inclement weather a drag; only Seven-Eleven Japan manages same-store sales growth Sector Review Tokyo Tatemono (8804) OUTPERFORM [V] TP ¥1,400 Mochizuki/ Takemura 1Q results: Slightly positive; NP run rate reaches 67% of full-year target Results Daiwa House Industry (1925) OUTPERFORM TP ¥2,400 Mochizuki/ Takemura Upbeat FY3/13 results: Dividend hiked; look for further profit growth in new medium-term Results plan Chemical sector: First take on FY12 results (MARKET WEIGHT) Sawato / Saito Positive for Toray and Tosoh Results Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802) OUTPERFORM TP ¥1,500 Okumoto/ Yamada Potential OP upside of ¥50bn; margin deterioration unlikely amid rising production Results FOCUS LIST STOCK Toho Zinc (5707) NEUTRAL [V] TP ¥460 Okumoto/ Yamada Resources segment still a drag Results Earnings Preview Presentation Slides Earnings Preview Presentation Slides – April 16: Telecommunications, Internet, IT Services, Consumer Electron ics, Game Software, Precision Instruments, Industrial Electronics, Electronic Components, , Brokerage, Insurance, Other Financials, Real Estate, Housing, Construction Earnings Preview Presentation Slides – April 17: Chemicals,Textiles,Steel,Nonferrous Metals, Cables, Glass & Ceramics, Paper, Batteries, Autos, Auto Parts, Pharmaceuticals, Food, Beverage, Tobacco, Quants FX Sensitivity Forex Sensitivity- Japan Coverage Forex Sensitivity (yen vs. USD, euro), January 2013 From Overseas – click report title to download Asia India Market Strategy: Stay selective: Rally indiscriminate so far, but will get differentiated Asia Steel Sector: Yen & You: How a falling yen impacts Asian companies; Yen, testing the 'metal' of Asian producers; Rating Changes; Revising Ests & TPs Indian IT Services: Two positive takeaways from CTSH's 1Q numbers Australian First Edition …and more in Asian Daily Americas Major Pharmaceuticals: Anti-PD-1s: Much "Adieu" About Something! - Future Data Releases Could Dimension Upside for BMY and MRK US Focus List: Latest update …and more in First Edition U.S. Alert Europe European Consulting Engineers: Until growth returns look elsewhere; Downgrade Atkins to Underperform from Neutral; TP changes European Week at a Glance: Latest update …and more in First Edition Summary Europe All Credit Suisse reports are available on Research and Analytics website Page 2 of 30 Monday, 13 May2013 Japan Daily OUTPERFORM Panasonic Corporation (6752) Prospects for bringing forward restructuring positive TP JPY 750 ■ Impression of results and guidance: Positive Shunsuke Tsuchiya 81 3 4550 9740 ■ FY3/14 guidance was unsurprising as the targets were already announced as a part of [email protected] the firm’s medium-term management plan in end-March. However, we expect investors to see the following in a positive light: (1) the high likelihood of Panasonic attaining its FY3/14 targets (Jan–Mar OP upside/conservative forex assumptions), and (2) the restructuring plan running ahead of schedule (booking of impairment charges on PDP assets in FY3/13; ahead-of-schedule restructuring in FY3/14). ■ Near-term share price impact: Slightly positive ■ We expect investor concerns on Panasonic’s restructuring schedule to ease if the one- off gain of ¥79.8bn stemming from the amended pension plan the company announced recently and the scope for potential earnings upside in FY3/14 further speed up the restructuring process. ■ However, the risk of balanced contraction stemming from a shrinking capex outlay represents a key concern (¥310.0bn in FY3/13; ¥200.0bn/year from FY3/14-16). At the 30 May business briefing, we intend to confirm details on how Panasonic intends to maintain its current sales and workforce levels while it scales down its asset size and the process through which it will transform to such a business model. ■ Key points of FY3/13 results and FY3/14 guidance ■ Jan–Mar OP of ¥39.0bn finished roughly ¥20.0bn ahead of guidance. We believe the upside is mainly attributable to reduced fixed costs. ■ Panasonic’s FY3/14 guidance calls for OP of ¥250.0bn, and NP of ¥50.0bn. The ¥120.0bn restructuring costs appear somewhat steep relative to the amount we anticipated based on the medium-term plan announced in March. ■ Panasonic’s forex assumptions of ¥85/$, ¥110/€, and ¥13.7/RMB appear conservative. The current forex rates imply an upside of ¥30.0bn versus guidance (each ¥1 decline vs. the above currencies boosts annual OP by ¥1.0bn vs. the dollar, ¥1.7bn
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