The Origins of Contemporary Conflict
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The Origins of Contemporary Conflict A Comparison of Violence in Three World Regions P.S. Douma September 2003 NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS ‘CLINGENDAEL’ CIP-Data Koninklijke bibliotheek, The Hague Douma, P.S. The Origins of Contemporary Conflict; A Comparison of Violence in Three World Regions / P.S. Douma B The Hague, Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael. Clingendael-Study ISBN 90-5031-086-9 Desk top publishing by Birgit Leiteritz Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael Conflict Research Unit Clingendael 7 2597 VH The Hague Phonenumber # - 31 - 70 - 3245384 Telefax # - 31 - 70 - 3282002 P.O. Box 93080 2509 AB The Hague E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.clingendael.nl The Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael is an independent institute for research, training and public information on international affairs. It publishes the results of its own research projects and the monthly ‘Internationale Spectator’ and offers a broad range of courses and conferences covering a wide variety of international issues. It also maintains a library and documentation centre. 8 Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the copyrightholders. Clingendael Institute, P.O. Box 93080, 2509 AB The Hague, The Netherlands. Contents Acknowledgements 5 I Introduction, Aim and Scope of the Study into Causes of Conflict 7 II Overview of Conflicts 21 III Socio-Economic Factors: A Socio-Economic Perspective on the Emergence of Internal Conflicts 45 IV Political Factors 91 V External Factors 147 VI Towards a Multi-Factor Dynamic Perspective 177 VII Summary, Major Findings and Conclusions 197 Annexes Annexe I Central America 211 Annexe II West Africa 215 Annexe III South Asia 217 3 Annexe IV Landholdings in Central America 223 Annexe V Selected Economic Statistics 227 Annexe VI External Economic Interventions 235 Annexe VII List of Research Documents 241 Annexe VIII Holsti’s Criteria for the Sustainability of States 245 4 Acknowledgements This study is the outcome of a three-year project that was funded by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This project, originally entitled ‘Causes of Conflict in the Third World’, covered a period of roughly three years from early 1996 until the end of 1998. when the project was concluded with a conference in The Hague. The research was conducted by the Conflict Research Unit of the Netherlands Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’, together with four counterpart research institutes: the Centre for Advanced Social Science (CASS) in Port Harcourt, Nigeria; the Council for the Advancement of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA ) based in Dakar, Senegal; the International Centre for Ethnic Studies (ICES) in Kandy, Sri Lanka; and the Arias Foundation for Peace and Human Progress, based in San José, Costa Rica. Throughout the project, various scholars worked in regional teams headed by team. Kingsley de Silva was in charge of overall coordination of the team on South Asia. He also contributed a study on the Sinhala-Tamil conflict. Gerry Peiris wrote on the JVP uprisings and Sam Samarasinghe provided insights into the Sri Lankan Tamil issue. Mohammad Waseem was responsible for part of the studies on Pakistan, in particular the MQM and the sectarian violence between Sunni and Shi’ite Muslims in Pakistan. Rasul Bakhsh Rais wrote on the Kashmir issue from a Pakistani perspective. He also contributed a study on 5 the Afghan imbroglio. The study on the Chittagong Hill Tracts in Bangladesh was provided by Aftab Ahmed. Several scholars contributed to the study on conflicts in India. Partha Ghosh wrote on the Hindu-Muslim controversy and also provided an Indian perspective on Kashmir. Mahendra Lama dealt with the ethnic insurgency movements in the north-east of India and the Punjab issue, and Ajay K. Mehra wrote on Naxalite and peasant movements on the Indian subcontinent. The team in West Africa was initially coordinated by Claude Ake. After his unfortunate and untimely death in an aircraft accident in Nigeria in 1997, he was replaced by Emeka Nwokedi, who was also responsible for the study on the Nigerian civil war. Okwudiba Nnoli made a study of the Ghanaian case, Ferdinand de Jong analysed the Casamance uprising in south Senegal, and Hamidou Arouna Sidikou made a contribution on the Tamajaq rebellion in Niger. The initial team leader for Central America, Joaquin Tacsan, also died prematurely in the same aircraft accident as Claude Ake. After his deceise, the final day-to-day management and coordination of the project was taken care of by Johanna Oliver, and the writing of the report’s synthesis chapters by David Mares. Throughout the three-year period, various scholars and research assistants made valuable contributions that helped in finalizing the study. Tania Pleitez contributed substantially to the studies on El Salvador and Nicaragua, while Margarita Mooney did so for the Guatemalan and Nicaraguan studies. The Costa Rican study was finalized by Jaime Ordonez and Fernando Zéledon Torres. Specific additional input on regional conflict issues was provided by external consultants: Alvaro de Ossa, Pascal Girot and Raul Rosende. A special word of thanks is owed to the Arias Foundation’s research coordinator, Johanna Oliver, who was instrumental in the project’s successful conclusion. Finally, I would like to mention my colleagues at the Clingendael Institute: Luc van de Goor, with whom I was responsible for the project’s day- to-day coordination from its start; and Jan Geert Siccama and Georg Frerks, who, as Head of the Research Department and Head of the Conflict Research Unit respectively, were responsible for the project’s supervision. The contents of this study reflect my opinions on this greatly complex issue and I am responsible for any errors and mistakes contained in the text. I would like to thank all of the scholars who have contributed to the success of the research project and provided excellent material on which to base this book. Furthermore, I am grateful to Luc van de Goor for reading the various drafts, his feedback and useful contributions. I have also extensively used material written by Luc for chapter four on the political causes. I would also like to thank the Clingendael support staff, notably Birgit Leiteritz, for editing and other practical support. Finally, I thank my supervisors Jan Geert Siccama and Georg Frerks for providing the intellectual, enabling environment. Pyt Douma Amsterdam, August 2003 6 I Introduction, Aim and Scope of the Study into Causes of Conflict This book results from the research project ‘Causes of Conflict in the Third World’ by the Netherlands Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’, which analyses conflict in so-called developing countries. The rationale of this publication is to reach a better understanding of the causes that lead to the emergence of violent conflict in a number of countries and regions. In general, most people use labels when they try to designate specific conflicts and how they have originated. Such labels mostly refer to characteristics of the protagonists involved, and, more precisely, the major differences between them. As a result, labels such as tribal, ethnic, racial, religious or linguistic have been used to designate specific conflicts. Labels are a rather easy way to categorize and identify specific conflicts. However, it is probable that no single conflict can satisfactorily be summarized by stressing the importance of only one factor. Hence, a so-called ethnic conflict may conceal existing socio-economic inequality among different ethnic communities, or lack of access to political decision-making in the setting of a state. This book tries to unravel some of the underlying and hidden factors, notably combinations of factors, that contribute to the emergence of violent large-scale conflict. Moreover, it aims to highlight similarities and differences between conflicts in different regions and countries based on a number of empirical studies. For the time being, there is no satisfactory and plausible 7 theory that identifies the various factors that lead to the outbreak of violent conflicts, yet this book seeks to contribute to the knowledge about the emergence of major violent conflicts and does so by investigating some 22 cases of conflict, located in fourteen countries in three different regions of the world. The three regions are South Asia, West Africa, and Central America. In South Asia, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka were selected. In West Africa two francophone countries (Niger and Senegal) and two anglophone countries (Ghana and Nigeria) were selected. Finally, in Central America nearly all of the countries on the Isthmus were involved: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua. The investigation focuses primarily on the period 1960-1995. Within this timeframe and geographical delimitation, the research attempts to investigate all of the major violent conflicts. Thus in Central America, the intrastate war between Honduras and El Salvador (the so-called Soccer War), the Sandinista- contra war between the incumbent revolutionary regime of Nicaragua and the armed opposition (based largely in Honduras and aided by the United States), as well as three internal wars in the region, between revolutionary movements and incumbent regimes in Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua, were analysed. In West Africa, the secessionist war between Biafra and the other Nigerian states, the internal war between the nomadic Touareg and the government forces of Niger, and the struggle between the government of Senegal and a secessionist movement in the Casamance region were investigated. In South Asia, a great number of conflicts were studied, including some long-standing social conflicts that time and again erupt in violent skirmishes but that have the potential to explode into major violent political crises.